How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Effects of plant pathogens on population dynamics and community composition in grassland ecosystems: two case studies

Grassland ecosystems comprise a major portion of the earth’s terrestrial surface, ranging from high-input cultivated monocultures or simple species mixtures to relatively unmanaged but dynamic systems. Plant pathogens are a component of these systems with their impact dependent on many interacting factors, including grassland species population dynamics and community composition, the topics covered in this paper. Plant pathogens are affected by these interactions and also act reciprocally by modifying their nature. We review these features of disease in grasslands and then introduce the 150-year long-term Park Grass Experiment (PGE) at Rothamsted Research in the UK. We then consider in detail two plant-pathogen systems present in the PGE, Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium and Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata. These two systems have very different life history characteristics: the first, a biennial member of the Asteraceae infected by its host-specific, systemic rust; the second, a perennial grass infected by a host-non-specific rust. We illustrate how observational, experimental and modelling studies can contribute to a better understanding of population dynamics, competitive interactions and evolutionary outcomes. With Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium, characterised as an “outbreak” species in the PGE, we show that pathogen-induced mortality is unlikely to be involved in host population regulation; and that the presence of even a short-lived seed-bank can affect the qualitative outcomes of the host-pathogen dynamics. With Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata, we show how nutrient conditions can affect adaptation in terms of host defence mechanisms, and that co-existence of competing species affected by a common generalist pathogen is unlikely.

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Recurrent Parasitemias and Population Dynamics of Plasmodium vivax Polymorphisms in Rural Amazonia

Clinical trials documented alarming post-treatment Plasmodium vivax recurrence rates caused by recrudescence of surviving asexual blood stages, relapse from hypnozoites, or new infections. Here we describe high rates of P vivax recurrence (26-40% 180 days after treatment) in two cohorts of rural Amazonians exposed to low levels of malaria transmission after a vivax malaria episode treated with chloroquine-primaquine. Microsatellite analysis of 28 paired acute infection and recurrence parasites showed only two pairs of identical haplotypes (consistent with recrudescences or reactivation of homologous hypnozoites) and four pairs of related haplotypes (sharing alleles at 11-13 of 14 microsatellites analyzed). Local isolates of P vivax were extraordinarily diverse and rarely shared the same haplotype, indicating that frequent recurrences did not favor the persistence or reappearance of clonal lineages of parasites in the Population. This fast haplotype replacement rate may represent the typical population dynamics Of neutral polymorphisms in parasites from low-endemicity areas.

Population dynamics of genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum lineages: community-based prospective study in rural Amazonia

Temporal changes in the prevalence of antigenic variants in Plasmodium falciparum populations have been interpreted as evidence of immune-mediated frequency-dependent selection, but evolutively neutral processes may generate similar patterns of serotype replacement. Over 4 years, we investigated the population dynamics of P. falciparum polymorphisms the community level by using 11 putatively neutral microsatellite markers. Plasmodium falciparum Populations were less diverse than sympatric P. vivax isolates, with less multiple-clone infections, lower number of alleles per locus and lower Virtual heterozygosity, but both species showed significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium. Evolutively neutral P. falciparum polymorphisms showed a high turnover rate, with few lineages persisting for several months in the population. Similar results had previously been obtained, in the same community, for sympatric P. vivax isolates. In contrast, the prevalence of the 2 dimorphic types of a major antigen, MSP-2, remained remarkably stable throughout the Study period. We Suggest that the relatively fast turnover of parasite lineages represents the typical population dynamics of neutral polymorphisms in small populations, with clear implications for the detection of frequency-dependent selection of polymorphisms.

Population dynamics of DENV-1 genotype V in Brazil is characterized by co-circulation and strain/lineage replacement

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Population dynamics, life stage and ecological modeling in Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Seasonal population dynamics and the genetic structure of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti in São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fuzzy subset approach in coupled population dynamics of blowflies

This paper is a study on the population dynamics of blowflies employing a density-dependent. non-linear mathematical model and a coupled population formalism. In this Study, we investigated the coupled population dynamics applying fuzzy subsets to model the Population trajectory. analyzing demographic parameters such as fecundity, Survival, and migration. The main results suggest different possibilities in terms of dynamic behavior produced by migration in coupled Populations between distinct environments and the rescue effect generated by the connection between populations. It was possible to conclude that environmental heterogeneity can play an important role in blowfly metapopulation systems. The implications of these results for population dynamics of blowflies are discussed.

Population dynamics of Musca domestica (Diptera: Muscidae): experimental and theoretical studies at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fecundity, body size and population dynamics of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seasonal population dynamics in Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics, sex ratio and size at sex change in a protandric simultaneous hermaphrodite, the spiny shrimp Exhippolysmata oplophoroides

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics of Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera : Calliphoridae) at different temperatures

In this study we analysed the theoretical population dynamics of C. megacephala, an exotic blowfly, kept at 25 and 30degreesC, using a density-dependent mathematical model, with parametric estimates of survival and fecundity in the laboratory. No change in terms of oscillation patterns was found for the two temperatures. The populations exhibited a two-point limit cycle, i.e. oscillations between two fixed points, at 25 and 30degreesC. However a quantitative change was observed, indicating that at 25degreesC the number of immatures in equilibrium is 1176 and at 30degreesC, 1944. The implications of this difference in terms of equilibrium for population dynamics of C. megacephala are discussed.