Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

Tax Cost of Investment Projects: the case of ICMS credits

This article discusses the impact on the profitability of firms under Complementary Law 102/2000 (which abrogated the Law 89/96 - Kandir Law) allowing the appropriation of ICMS credits, due to investment in fixed assets goods, at a ratio of 1/48 per month. The paper seeks to demonstrate how this new system - which resulted in the transformation of the ICMS as a value added tax (VAT) consumption-type to an income-type - leads to a loss of approximately 30% of the value of credits to be recovered and the effect it generates on the cost of investment and the profits for small, medium and large firms. From the methodological point of view, it is a descriptive and quantitative research, which proceeded in three stages. Initially, we have obtained estimated value of net sales and volume of investments, based on report Painel de Competitividade prepared by the Federacao das Indtustrias do Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp/Serasa). Based on this information, it was possible to obtain estimates of the factors of generation of debits and credits for ICMS, using the model Credit Control of Fixed Assets (CIAP). Finally, we have calculated three indicators: (i) present value of debt recovery/value of credits, (ii) present value of debt recovery / investment value, (iii) present value of debt recovery / sales profitability. We have conclude that the system introduced by Complementary Law 102/2000 implicates great opportunity cost for firms and that legislation should be reviewed from this perspective, aiming to ensure lower costs associated with investment projects.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Ferromagnetism, paramagnetism, and a Curie-Weiss metal in an electron-doped Hubbard model on a triangular lattice

Motivated by the unconventional properties and rich phase diagram of NaxCoO2 we consider the electronic and magnetic properties of a two-dimensional Hubbard model on an isotropic triangular lattice doped with electrons away from half-filling. Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations predict that for negative intersite hopping amplitudes (t < 0) and an on-site Coulomb repulsion, U, comparable to the bandwidth, the system displays properties typical of a weakly correlated metal. In contrast, for t > 0 a large enhancement of the effective mass, itinerant ferromagnetism, and a metallic phase with a Curie-Weiss magnetic susceptibility are found in a broad electron doping range. The different behavior encountered is a consequence of the larger noninteracting density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level for t > 0 than for t < 0, which effectively enhances the mass and the scattering amplitude of the quasiparticles. The shape of the DOS is crucial for the occurrence of ferromagnetism as for t > 0 the energy cost of polarizing the system is much smaller than for t < 0. Our observation of Nagaoka ferromagnetism is consistent with the A-type antiferromagnetism (i.e., ferromagnetic layers stacked antiferromagnetically) observed in neutron scattering experiments on NaxCoO2. The transport and magnetic properties measured in NaxCoO2 are consistent with DMFT predictions of a metal close to the Mott insulator and we discuss the role of Na ordering in driving the system towards the Mott transition. We propose that the Curie-Weiss metal phase observed in NaxCoO2 is a consequence of the crossover from a bad metal with incoherent quasiparticles at temperatures T > T-* and Fermi liquid behavior with enhanced parameters below T-*, where T-* is a low energy coherence scale induced by strong local Coulomb electron correlations. Our analysis also shows that the one band Hubbard model on a triangular lattice is not enough to describe the unusual properties of NaxCoO2 and is used to identify the simplest relevant model that captures the essential physics in NaxCoO2. We propose a model which allows for the Na ordering phenomena observed in the system which, we propose, drives the system close to the Mott insulating phase even at large dopings.

Cost analysis of drug therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

With the aim to compare the cost of treatment for rheumatoid arthritis therapy with desease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDS) for a 48-month period, were studied five different treatment stage based on clinical protocols recommended by the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology, and then five therapy cycles. The analytical model based on the Markov Analysis, considered chaces for the patient continue in some stages or change between them according with a positive effect on outcomes. Only direct costs were comprised in the analyzed data, like drugs, materials and tests used for monitoring these patients. The results of the model show that the stage in with metotrexato drug is used like monotherapy was cost-effective (R$ 113,900,00 for patient during 48 months), followed by refractory patient (R$ 1,554,483,43), those that use therapy triplicate followed by infleximable drug (R$ 1, 701, 286.76), the metotrexato intolearant patient (R$ 2,629,919,14), and final the result from that use metotrexato and infliximable in the beginning (R$ 9,292,879,31). The sensitivity analysis confirm this results, when alternate the efficacy of metotrexato and infliximabe.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the Current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.

Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

Experimental Model of Isolated Lung Perfusion in Rats: First Brazilian Experience Using the IL-2 Isolated Perfused Rat or Guinea Pig Lung System

Introduction. Lung transplantation has become the mainstay therapy for patients with end-stage lung disease refractory to medical management. However, the number of patients listed for lung transplantation largely exceeds available donors. The study of lung preservation requires accurate, cost-effective small animal models. We have described a model of ex vivo rat lung perfusion using a commercially available system. Methods. Male Wistar rats weighing 250 g-300 g were anesthetized with intraperitoneal sodium thiopental (50 mg/kg body weight). The surgical technique included heart-lung block extraction, assembly, and preparation for perfusion and data collection. We used an IL-2 Isolated Perfused Rat or Guinea Pig Lung System (Harvard Apparatus, Holliston, Mass, United States; Hugo Sachs Elektronik, Alemanha). Results. Preliminary results included hemodynamic and pulmonary mechanics data gathered in the experiments. Conclusion. The isolated rat lung perfusion system is a reliable method to assess lung preservation.

Changes in postnatal skeletal muscle development induced by alternative immobilization model in female rat

The objective of this study was to adapt a model of hind limb immobilization to newly weaned female rats and to determine the morphology of shortened soleus and plantaris muscles. Female Wistar rats were divided into three groups: control zero (n = 3) and control and free (n = 8), animals aged 21 and 31 days, respectively, submitted to no intervention, and immobilized (n = 25), animals aged 21 days submitted to immobilization for 10 days and sacrificed at 31 days of age. The device used for immobilization had advantages such as easy connection, good fit, and low cost. The immobilized rats showed a reduction in muscle fiber area and in connective tissue. The adaptation of this immobilization model originally used for adult rats was an excellent alternative for newly weaned rats and was also efficient in inducing significant hind limb disuse.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.