Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

An interval type-2 fuzzy logic system-based method for prediction interval construction

This paper introduces a new non-parametric method for uncertainty quantification through construction of prediction intervals (PIs). The method takes the left and right end points of the type-reduced set of an interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) model as the lower and upper bounds of a PI. No assumption is made in regard to the data distribution, behaviour, and patterns when developing intervals. A training method is proposed to link the confidence level (CL) concept of PIs to the intervals generated by IT2FLS models. The new PI-based training algorithm not only ensures that PIs constructed using IT2FLS models satisfy the CL requirements, but also reduces widths of PIs and generates practically informative PIs. Proper adjustment of parameters of IT2FLSs is performed through the minimization of a PI-based objective function. A metaheuristic method is applied for minimization of the non-linear non-differentiable cost function. Performance of the proposed method is examined for seven synthetic and real world benchmark case studies with homogenous and heterogeneous noise. The demonstrated results indicate that the proposed method is capable of generating high quality PIs. Comparative studies also show that the performance of the proposed method is equal to or better than traditional neural network-based methods for construction of PIs in more than 90% of cases. The superiority is more evident for the case of data with a heterogeneous noise. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Constructing optimal prediction intervals by using neural networks and bootstrap method

This brief proposes an efficient technique for the construction of optimized prediction intervals (PIs) by using the bootstrap technique. The method employs an innovative PI-based cost function in the training of neural networks (NNs) used for estimation of the target variance in the bootstrap method. An optimization algorithm is developed for minimization of the cost function and adjustment of NN parameters. The performance of the optimized bootstrap method is examined for seven synthetic and real-world case studies. It is shown that application of the proposed method improves the quality of constructed PIs by more than 28% over the existing technique, leading to narrower PIs with a coverage probability greater than the nominal confidence level.

Stochastic optimization models for energy management in carbonization process of carbon fiber production

Industrial producers face the task of optimizing production process in an attempt to achieve the desired quality such as mechanical properties with the lowest energy consumption. In industrial carbon fiber production, the fibers are processed in bundles containing (batches) several thousand filaments and consequently the energy optimization will be a stochastic process as it involves uncertainty, imprecision or randomness. This paper presents a stochastic optimization model to reduce energy consumption a given range of desired mechanical properties. Several processing condition sets are developed and for each set of conditions, 50 samples of fiber are analyzed for their tensile strength and modulus. The energy consumption during production of the samples is carefully monitored on the processing equipment. Then, five standard distribution functions are examined to determine those which can best describe the distribution of mechanical properties of filaments. To verify the distribution goodness of fit and correlation statistics, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used. In order to estimate the selected distribution (Weibull) parameters, the maximum likelihood, least square and genetic algorithm methods are compared. An array of factors including the sample size, the confidence level, and relative error of estimated parameters are used for evaluating the tensile strength and modulus properties. The energy consumption and N2 gas cost are modeled by Convex Hull method. Finally, in order to optimize the carbon fiber production quality and its energy consumption and total cost, mixed integer linear programming is utilized. The results show that using the stochastic optimization models, we are able to predict the production quality in a given range and minimize the energy consumption of its industrial process.

Mercado brasileiro: aplicação de análise de componentes principais no cálculo de VAR para carteiras de renda fixa

A abordagem do Value at Risk (VAR) neste trabalho será feita a partir da análise da curva de juros por componentes principais (Principal Component Analysis – PCA). Com essa técnica, os movimentos da curva de juros são decompostos em um pequeno número de fatores básicos independentes um do outro. Entre eles, um fator de deslocamento (shift), que faz com que as taxas da curva se movam na mesma direção, todas para cima ou para baixo; de inclinação (twist) que rotaciona a curva fazendo com que as taxas curtas se movam em uma direção e as longas em outra; e finalmente movimento de torção, que afeta vencimentos curtos e longos no mesmo sentido e vencimentos intermediários em sentido oposto. A combinação destes fatores produz cenários hipotéticos de curva de juros que podem ser utilizados para estimar lucros e perdas de portfolios. A maior perda entre os cenários gerados é uma maneira intuitiva e rápida de estimar o VAR. Este, tende a ser, conforme verificaremos, uma estimativa conservadora do respectivo percentual de perda utilizado. Existem artigos sobre aplicações de PCA para a curva de juros brasileira, mas desconhecemos algum que utilize PCA para construção de cenários e cálculo de VAR, como é feito no presente trabalho.Nesse trabalho, verificaremos que a primeira componente principal produz na curva um movimento de inclinação conjugado com uma ligeira inclinação, ao contrário dos resultados obtidos em curvas de juros de outros países, que apresentam deslocamentos praticamente paralelos.

Síntese de pigmento cerâmico ferrita de cobalto utilizando planejamento experimental

Synthetic inorganic pigments are the most widely used in ceramic applications because they have excellent chemical and thermal stability and also, in general, a lower toxicity to man and to the environment. In the present work, the ceramic black pigment CoFe2O4 was synthesized by the polymerization Complex method (MPC) in order to form a material with good chemical homogeneity. Aiming to optimize the process of getting the pigment through the MPC was used a fractional factorial design 2(5-2), with resolution III. The factors studied in mathematical models were: citric acid concentration, the pyrolysis time, temperature, time and rate of calcination. The response surfaces using the software statistica 7.0. The powders were characterized by thermal analysis (TG/DSC), x-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and spectroscopy in the UV-visible. Based on the results, there was the formation of phase cobalt ferrite (CoFe2O4) with spinel structure. The color of the pigments obtained showed dark shades, from black to gray. The model chosen was appropriate since proved to be adjusted and predictive. Planning also showed that all factors were significant, with a confidence level of 95%

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Legislação de rotulagem nutricional: instrumento de informação na promoção de escolhas alimentares - Natal-RN

Resolutions of the Board of numbers 359 and 360, of December 23, 2003, relating to Nutrition Labelling for Packaged Foods, establish quality standards and provide the education activities for health consumption, since one of the factors that enable the selection of healthier foods are the food labels as an important part in nutrition education. This is a descriptive study with a cross-sectional design. To calculate sample size, it was considered a margin of error of 20%, confidence level of 95% and prevalence of 52.5% for verifying nutritional information in a pilot study conducted in 2007. A total of 145 subjects were interviewed, resulting in 371 consumers in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, in order to determine prevalence of consulting nutritional information contained on food labels as a nutritional guideline for consumers and its association with sociodemographic variables as well as identify the intervention measures suggested by intervieweds so that this information can be better used to select healthy foods. Twenty-five of the 69 supermarkets belonging to the Supermarket Association of Rio Grande do Norte (ASSURN) were randomly selected. Data collection relied on interviews and extensive direct observation, using a semi-structured form composed of eight closed questions, some of which were multiple choice, and ten open questions. The chi-square test was performed for statistical analysis, using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) 15.0 software. Label information most consulted was: expiry date (91.6%); product brand (49.4%); nutritional information (47.0%); zero trans fat (32.9%); zero sugar content (12.8%); zero fat content (3.0%); rich in fibers (2.7%); whether light or diet (30.4%); list of ingredients (16.8%); whether the product contained gluten or not (4.1%). When asked about the importance of nutritional information, 96.8% of the subjects responded important or very important ; of these 46.6% and 3.8% reported partially or totally understanding the information presented. It was found that 41.6% of the consumers consulted nutritional information for dietary reasons related to nontransmissible chronic diseases and 35.7% to be able to choose healthier foods. The data show a significant association between motivation to choose healthier foods and higher family income and schooling (p<0.0001). The intervention measures mentioned to make nutritional information better understood and used were: information and orientation about nutritional information, provided by qualified professionals in the supermarkets, the commercial establishment or the product manufacturer (73.9%) and media disclosure about the nature, importance and purpose of nutritional information (42.9%). In despite of communication noises the consumers use the nutrition claim for the nutritional guidance, showing association with some demographic variables. However, they desire the implementation of intervention measures that can be contextualized in the political construction of nutrition education to promote healthy food choices

Abordagem inicial de lesões mamárias por biopsia helicóide: estudo experimental

OBJECTIVE: Evaluating the kit-Bh performance in carrying out of breast biopsies. METHODS: They were randomly selected a sample of 30 patients with breast cancer undergoing mastectomy, based on the results of a pilot study from February 2008 to April 2010. They were excluded women with had not palpable, stone-hard consistency tumors, previous surgical manipulation or that contains liquid. Using the helicoid biopsy Kit (kit Bh) and an equipment Core biopsy with cannula and needle and 14 gauge respectively, it was collected a fragment of sound equipment in the area and in tumors in each specimen, totaling 120 fragments for histological study. For data analysis, it was defined a 95% confidence level and used the SPSS-13 version, the Kappa index and the parametric Student t test. RESULTS: Mean age of patients was 51.6 years (± 11.1 years). The infiltrating ductal carcinoma showed a higher incidence, 26 cases (86.7%). The Core biopsy had a sensitivity of 93.3%, specificity of 100% and accuracy 96.7%, while the helicoid biopsy had a sensitivity of 96.7%, specificity of 100% and accuracy 98.3%. By comparing the histology of tumors and the fragments of biopsies, there was high degree of agreement in diagnoses (kappa of 0.93 with p <0.05) CONCLUSION: Both devices provided the histological diagnosis of lesions with high accuracy. Results of this study showed that the helicoid biopsy is a reliable alternative in 22 the preoperative diagnosis of breast lesions. Further studies in vivo better will define the role of Kit Bh in the diagnosis of these lesions

Farmacêuticos e suas atividades em farmácias comunitárias: uma análise de perfil

The aim of this study was to establish the profile of the pharmacist technician responsible for community pharmacies in the city of Natal/RN, featuring personal elements, perceived their role and place of pharmaceutical care, levels of job satisfaction, type and quality of services provided in human and structural framework. To that end, we made an exploratory cross-sectional study applying a questionnaire containing open and closed questions, which was applied to pharmaceutical technicians responsible for community pharmacies in Natal/RN, from September 2010 to September 2011. The sample was established by calculating the simple random sample, with a confidence level of 95% and a significance level of 0.05. To evaluate the satisfaction level of the activities performed by pharmacists in community pharmacies was used Simple Satisfaction Scale (Likert, 1935). To assess the attitudes and perceptions of pharmacists in relation to aspects of pharmaceutical care, we used the Model Attitude toward the object (Fishbein, Ajzen, 1975). The answers were converted into data were analyzed statistically using Epi Info 3.5.2 The results showed that the strengths and weaknesses in relation to the profile of the pharmacist and their activities in community pharmacies in Natal/RN are not different in other cities in the country . The most important aspects were: 51% (n = 90) of the establishments visited, the pharmacist was absent; 46% (n = 80) did not have postgraduate and of those who are or have completed 33% (n = 51) are in the area of Clinical Analysis; 56% (n = 98) 08h for day work and 64% (n = 111) claim that this load influence its performance; 83% (n = 146) receive as salary, the floor pharmacist regarding the state of Rio Grande do Norte; 44% (n = 76) are unhappy about the salary, which is the main difficulty cited; 78% (n = 136) say they are always sought by users and the receptivity of these considered good (52%, n = 91). The activities of higher satisfaction are those related to pharmaceutical care and lower the administrative. As regards attitudes and perceptions, the score was more negative to the question 'if the pharmacist feels working as a team with the doctor', in which 59% (n = 103) responded 'never'. 49% (n = 86) reported being "able" to take questions from users and 39% (n = 68) are 'dissatisfied' with respect to the structure of the practice of pharmacy to pharmaceutical care. Action is needed on the obstacles to the exercise of the pharmacist in the solution and minimize the negative and positive stimulus to

Temperature and Scarification Effects on the Germination of Syagrus picrophylla Seeds, a Brazilian Native Palm

Syagrus picrophylla belongs to the Arecaceae family. Its propagation is made by seeds; however there is a lack of information in the literature about its seed germination. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of temperature and scarification on the germination of S. picrophylla seeds. The experiment was carried out at the State University of São Paulo, Jaboticabal Campus, Brazil. The experimental design was entirely randomized in a factorial arrangement 5 x 2 (five temperature conditions combined with or without mechanical scarification. The number of germinated seeds that showed primary root protrusion was noted daily, and when the germination was stabilized, the germination (%G) and germination rate (GR) were calculated. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) was carried out for means comparing by the Tukey test at 5% confidence level. It was concluded that the greatest %G were obtained at 20-30 degrees C (62%) and 25-35 degrees C (59%) alternated temperatures; %G and GR were similar for both scarified and non-scarified seeds, and there was a faster germination at 20-30 degrees C alternated temperature.

Avaliação da eficiência de catalisadores comerciais na obtenção de biodiesel de algodão (Gossipium hisutum L.)

The increasing demand for energy and the environment consequences derived from the use of fossil energy, beyond the future scarcity of the oil that currently is the main power plant of the world, it stimulated the research around the production of biodiesel. In this work the synthesis of biodiesel of cotton in the methyl route was carried through, for had been in such a way used catalyst commercial homogeneous, Na-Methylat and the K-Methylat, aiming to the evaluation of the efficiency of them. An experimental planning 23 was elaborated aiming to evaluate the influence of the variable (molar reason oil/alcohol, % of catalyst and temperature) in the process as well as indicating the excellent point of operation in each case. The biodiesel was analyzed by gaseous chromatography, indicating a conversion of 96,79% when used Na-Methylat® as catalytic, and 95,65% when the K-Methylat® was used. Optimum result found with regard to the conversion was obtained at the following conditions: molar reason oil/alcohol (1:8), temperature of 40°C and 1% of catalyst Na-Methylat, reaching a 96,79% conversion, being, therefore, above of the established for the European norm (96.5%). The analysis of regression showed that the only significant effect for a confidence level of 95%, was of the changeable temperature. The variance analysis evidenced that the considered model is fitted quite to the experimental response, being statistically significant; however it does not serve inside for make forecasts of the intervals established for each variable. The best samples were analyzed by infra-red (IR) that identified the strong bands of axial deformation C=O of methylic ester, characterized through analyses physicochemical that had indicated conformity with the norms of the ANP, that with the thermal and rheological analyses had together evidenced that biodiesel can be used as combustible alternative in substitution to diesel

Extração de ferro da cera de carnaúba utilizando sistemas microemulsionados

The constant search for biodegradable materials for applications in several fields shows that carnauba wax can be a viable alternative in the manufacturing of biolubricants. Carnauba wax is the unique among the natural waxes to have a combination of properties of great importance. In previous studies it was verified the presence of metals in wax composition that can harm the oxidative stability of lubricants. Considering these factors, it was decided to develop a research to evaluate iron removal from carnauba wax, using microemulsion systems (Me) and perform the optimization of parameters, such as: extraction pH, temperature, extraction time, among others. Iron concentration was determined by atomic absorption and, to perform this analysis, sample digestion in microwave oven was used, showing that this process was very efficient. It was performed some analysis in order to characterize the wax sample, such as: attenuated total reflectance infrared spectroscopy (ATR-IR), thermogravimetry (TG), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and melting point (FP). The microemulsion systems were composed by: coconut oil as surfactant, n-butanol as cosurfactant, kerosene and/or heptanes as oil phase, distilled water as water phase. The pH chosen for this study was 4.5 and the metal extraction was performed in finite experiments. To evaluate Me extraction it was performed a factorial design for systems with heptane and kerosene as oil phase, also investigating the influence of temperature time and wax/Me ratio, that showed an statistically significant answer for iron extraction at 95% confidence level. The best result was obtained at 60°C, 10 hours contact time and 1: 10 wax/Me ratio, in both systems with kerosene and heptanes as oil phase. The best extraction occurred with kerosene as oil phase, with 54% iron removal

Flow-injection spectrophotometric determination of novalgin in phrmaceuticals using micellar medium

A sensitive flow-injection (FI) procedure with spectrophotometric detection in a micellar medium is proposed for the determination of novalgin. The method is based on the instantaneous formation of a red-orange product (lambda(max) = 510 nm) after the reaction between novalgin and p-dimethylaminocinnamaldehyde (p-DAC) in a dilute acid medium. The sensitivity of this reaction was increased by a factor of 5.6 in the presence of sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS). Experimental design methodologies were used to optimize the chemical and FI variables. The calibration curve was linear in the range of 1.45 x 10(-6) to 2.90 x 10(-5) mol L-1 with an excellent correlation coefficient (r = 0.9999). The detection limit was 1.31 x 10(-7) mol L-1 (n = 20, RSD = 2.0%). No interferences were observed from the common excipients. The results obtained by the proposed method were favorably compared with those given by the iodometric reference method at 95% confidence level.

Qualidade de vida, eficiência mastigatória e presença de disfunção temporomandibular em usuários de prótese parcial removível com arco dental curto inferior

Even nowadays there is in Brasil a large number of edentulous and a precarious financial condition of most of the population. In addition, World Health Organization aims for oral health, which consists on the maintenance of a natural dentition, functional and aesthetic composed of at least 20 teeth, without need of prosthetic intervention throughout life. From this and considering the lack of researches about the permanence of edentulous spaces in the oral cavity, and also avoiding overtreatment, this research has been proposed. Thus, the aim was to evaluate the effect of different lengths of the shortened lower dental arch in the presence or absence of a removable partial denture (RPD) on masticatory function, quality of life and occurrence of temporomandibular dysfunction. To achieve this goal, we compared the masticatory efficiency (colorimetric test), the oral comfort through the analysis of the impact of oral health in quality of life (OHIP-14), the presence of temporomandibular dysfunction (RDC/TMD) and the general quality of life (WHOQOL) of patients with shortened dental arches (SDA) (n=60), which is an arch with a reduction of teeth starting posteriorly, and patients with complete dental arch (Complete DA) (n = 34). The group of patients whit SDA was divided among PPR wears (PPD + SDA) (n = 17) and non-wears (n = 43). The population of this study consisted on patients who received or looked for treatment at the clinics of the Department of Dentistry of UFRN, from clinical analysis and records. The sample was chosen by convenience. For statistical analysis, it was a database in SPSS 17.0, followed by descriptive analysis with frequencies, absolute values, tests of central tendency and variability. The statistical tests used were chi-squared and analysis of variance as well as Tukey s post test, when applicable, all with a 95% confidence level. The results shown a prevalence of TMD of 47,1% among patients using PRP and 69,8% among those who didn t, but this result wasn t statistically significant. The mean of the results of masticatory efficiency, WHOQOL and OHIP didn t show association to the presence or absence of PPR and to the lower number of occlusal units of the patients (0, 1, 2 or more occlusal). The association only occurred among the different groups of SDA and the patients with complete dental arch. Taking into account the results, it could be observed that studied patients with low posterior support using lower PRP didn t have better masticatory efficiency, general quality of life, less impacts of their oral conditions in quality of life or not even less temporomandibular dysfunction or better masticatory efficiency when compared to those who didn t use the prosthesis