18F-FDG measurement in primary lung cancer: SUV normalization to different distribution volumes

Introduction: Standard Uptake Value (SUV) is a measurement of the uptake in a tumour normalized on the basis of a distribution volume and is used to quantify 18F-Fluorodeoxiglucose (FDG) uptake in tumors, such as primary lung tumor. Several sources of error can affect its accuracy. Normalization can be based on body weight, body surface area (BSA) and lean body mass (LBM). The aim of this study is to compare the influence of 3 normalization volumes in the calculation of SUV: body weight (SUVW), BSA (SUVBSA) and LBM (SUVLBM), with and without glucose correction, in patients with known primary lung tumor. The correlation between SUV and weight, height, blood glucose level, injected activity and time between injection and image acquisition is evaluated. Methods: Sample included 30 subjects (8 female and 22 male) with primary lung tumor, with clinical indication for 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography (PET). Images were acquired on a Siemens Biography according to the department’s protocol. Maximum pixel SUVW was obtained for abnormal uptake focus through semiautomatic VOI with Quantification 3D isocontour (threshold 2.5). The concentration of radioactivity (kBq/ml) was obtained from SUVW, SUVBSA, SUVLBM and the glucose corrected SUV were mathematically obtained. Results: Statistically significant differences between SUVW, SUVBSA and SUVLBM and between SUVWgluc, SUVBSAgluc and SUVLBMgluc were observed (p=0.000<0.05). The blood glucose level showed significant positive correlations with SUVW (r=0.371; p=0.043) and SUVLBM (r=0.389; p=0.034). SUVBSA showed independence of variations with the blood glucose level. Conclusion: The measurement of a radiopharmaceutical tumor uptake normalized on the basis of different distribution volumes is still variable. Further investigation on this subject is recommended.

Electrochemical immunosensor for the analysis of the breast cancer biomarker HER2 ECD

Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is a breast cancer biomarker that plays a major role in promoting breast cancer cell proliferation and malignant growth. The extracellular domain (ECD) of HER2 can be shed into the blood stream and its concentration is measurable in the serum fraction of blood. In this work an electrochemical immunosensor for the analysis of HER2 ECD in human serum samples was developed. To achieve this goal a screen-printed carbon electrode, modified with gold nanoparticles, was used as transducer surface. A sandwich immunoassay, using two monoclonal antibodies, was employed and the detection of the antibody–antigen interaction was performed through the analysis of an enzymatic reaction product by linear sweep voltammetry. Using the optimized experimental conditions the calibration curve (ip vs. log[HER2 ECD]) was established between 15 and 100 ng/mL and a limit of detection (LOD) of 4.4 ng/mL was achieved. These results indicate that the developed immunosensor could be a promising tool in breast cancer diagnostics, patient follow-up and monitoring of metastatic breast cancer since it allows quantification in a useful concentration range and has an LOD below the established cut-off value (15 ng/mL).

P53 and Cancer-Associated Sialylated Glycans Are Surrogate Markers of Cancerization of the Bladder Associated with Schistosoma haematobium Infection

BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer is a significant health problem in rural areas of Africa and the Middle East where Schistosoma haematobium is prevalent, supporting an association between malignant transformation and infection by this blood fluke. Nevertheless, the molecular mechanisms linking these events are poorly understood. Bladder cancers in infected populations are generally diagnosed at a late stage since there is a lack of non-invasive diagnostic tools, hence enforcing the need for early carcinogenesis markers. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Forty-three formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded bladder biopsies of S. haematobium-infected patients, consisting of bladder tumours, tumour adjacent mucosa and pre-malignant/malignant urothelial lesions, were screened for bladder cancer biomarkers. These included the oncoprotein p53, the tumour proliferation rate (Ki-67>17%), cell-surface cancer-associated glycan sialyl-Tn (sTn) and sialyl-Lewisa/x (sLea/sLex), involved in immune escape and metastasis. Bladder tumours of non-S. haematobium etiology and normal urothelium were used as controls. S. haematobium-associated benign/pre-malignant lesions present alterations in p53 and sLex that were also found in bladder tumors. Similar results were observed in non-S. haematobium associated tumours, irrespectively of their histological nature, denoting some common molecular pathways. In addition, most benign/pre-malignant lesions also expressed sLea. However, proliferative phenotypes were more prevalent in lesions adjacent to bladder tumors while sLea was characteristic of sole benign/pre-malignant lesions, suggesting it may be a biomarker of early carcionogenesis associated with the parasite. A correlation was observed between the frequency of the biomarkers in the tumor and adjacent mucosa, with the exception of Ki-67. Most S. haematobium eggs embedded in the urothelium were also positive for sLea and sLex. Reinforcing the pathologic nature of the studied biomarkers, none was observed in the healthy urothelium. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This preliminary study suggests that p53 and sialylated glycans are surrogate biomarkers of bladder cancerization associated with S. haematobium, highlighting a missing link between infection and cancer development. Eggs of S. haematobium express sLea and sLex antigens in mimicry of human leukocytes glycosylation, which may play a role in the colonization and disease dissemination. These observations may help the early identification of infected patients at a higher risk of developing bladder cancer and guide the future development of non-invasive diagnostic tests.

Cytomegalovirus in colorectal cancer and idiopathic ulcerative colitis

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a genus in the family Herpesviridae that has been associated with gastrointestinal syndromes. In this work we looked for a possible association of CMV infection with colorectal cancer and ulcerative colitis (UC). Blood and enteric tissue samples of 14 patients with colorectal cancer and of 21 with UC were subjected to a nested-PCR that amplifies part of the gB gene of CMV and also to immunohistochemistry using a specific monoclonal antibody to IE 76kDa protein of CMV. CMV was detected by nested-PCR in the blood and/or the enteric tissue of nine (64.3%) colorectal cancer and 16 (76.2%) ulcerative colitis patients. In the immunohistochemistry it was observed that 12 (12/21, 57.1%) positive enteric tissue samples of patients with UC and none from patients with colorectal cancer (0/14) were positive to CMV. The positivity of CMV infections in the UC patient group (12/21, 57.1%) showed by both techniques, was significantly higher (p = 0.015) than that observed for colorectal cancer patients (2/14, 14.3%). These results suggest an association of ulcerative colitis with CMV infection of the enteric tissue.

Longitudinal analysis of tumor marker CEA of breast cancer patients from Braga's hospital

Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.

The HIF1A Functional Genetic Polymorphism at Locus +1772 Associates with Progression to Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Refractoriness to Hormonal Castration

The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

The HIF1A Functional Genetic Polymorphism at Locus +1772 Associates with Progression to Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Refractoriness to Hormonal Castration

The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

Locally Advanced and Metastatic Prostate Cancer Treated with Intermittent Androgen Monotherapy or Maximal Androgen Blockade: Results from a Randomised Phase 3 Study by the South European Uroncological Group

BACKGROUND: Few randomised studies have compared antiandrogen intermittent hormonal therapy (IHT) with continuous maximal androgen blockade (MAB) therapy for advanced prostate cancer (PCa). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether overall survival (OS) on IHT (cyproterone acetate; CPA) is noninferior to OS on continuous MAB. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This phase 3 randomised trial compared IHT and continuous MAB in patients with locally advanced or metastatic PCa. INTERVENTION: During induction, patients received CPA 200 mg/d for 2 wk and then monthly depot injections of a luteinising hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH; triptoreline 11.25 mg) analogue plus CPA 200 mg/d. Patients whose prostate-specific antigen (PSA) was <4 ng/ml after 3 mo of induction treatment were randomised to the IHT arm (stopped treatment and restarted on CPA 300 mg/d monotherapy if PSA rose to ≥20 ng/ml or they were symptomatic) or the continuous arm (CPA 200 mg/d plus monthly LHRH analogue). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcome measurement was OS. Secondary outcomes included cause-specific survival, time to subjective or objective progression, and quality of life. Time off therapy in the intermittent arm was recorded. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: We recruited 1045 patients, of which 918 responded to induction therapy and were randomised (462 to IHT and 456 to continuous MAB). OS was similar between groups (p=0.25), and noninferiority of IHT was demonstrated (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-1.07). There was a trend for an interaction between PSA and treatment (p=0.05), favouring IHT over continuous therapy in patients with PSA ≤1 ng/ml (HR: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.61-1.02). Men treated with IHT reported better sexual function. Among the 462 patients on IHT, 50% and 28% of patients were off therapy for ≥2.5 yr or >5 yr, respectively, after randomisation. The main limitation is that the length of time for the trial to mature means that other therapies are now available. A second limitation is that T3 patients may now profit from watchful waiting instead of androgen-deprivation therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Noninferiority of IHT in terms of survival and its association with better sexual activity than continuous therapy suggest that IHT should be considered for use in routine clinical practice.

Study of glycosidic changes in lung cancer: potential effectors in hematogenous metastasis

RESUMO: O cancro do pulmão (LC), uma das principais causas de mortalidade relacionada com cancro em Portugal, pode levar à formação de metástases hematogénicas. A adesão das células tumorais ao endotélio é considerada um dos passos fundamentais envolvidos na metástase. Em células sanguíneas, esta adesão é mediada por ligandos de E-selectina (E-SL), glicoproteínas ou glicolípidos decorados principalmente com sialyl-Lewis x (sLex) e sialyl-Lewis a (sLea). Tem sido descrito a expressão destes antigénios em LC, contudo o seu papel funcional em permitir a adesão das células de LC ao endotélio é ainda pouco compreendido. Foram analisadas amostras emparelhadas normais e tumorais de pacientes com cancro de pulmão de não-pequenas células (NSCLC) e três linhas celulares de LC. Immunoblotting assays com anti-sLex/sLea e molécula quimérica de E-selectina demonstraram que tecidos tumorais de LC sobreexpressam significativamente E-SL e resultados de citometria de fluxo demonstraram uma expressão elevada de E-SL nas linhas celulares. Para compreender o mecanismo da sobreexpressão de E-SL em tecidos tumorais e linhas celulares de LC, foi analisada a expressão de genes envolvidos na biossíntese de E-SL, nomeadamente FUT3, FUT4, FUT6, FUT7, ST3GAL3, ST3GAL4, ST3GAL6, β4GALT1, GCNT1 e GALNT3. Observou-se a sobreexpressão das fucosiltransferases FUT3, FUT6 e FUT7 em tecidos tumorais de LC e FUT3 em linhas celulares de LC, sendo que neste último, esta expressão é correlacionada com um aumento da adesão das células de LC às selectinas endoteliais. Foi observado que uma baixa expressão de FUT4 em tecidos tumorais está associada com estadios menos avançados de NSCLC. Foram analisadas ainda proteínas decoradas com sLex/sLea, tendo-se identificado como E-SL o antigénio carcinoembrionário em NSCLC. Em resumo, esta tese contribuiu para uma melhor compreensão das alterações glicosídicas e moléculas que podem influenciar a progressão tumoral do LC, podendo permitir identificar futuramente novos biomarcadores de diagnóstico/prognóstico e potenciais alvos terapêuticos para o NSCLC.--------------------------ABSTRACT: Lung cancer (LC), one of the major causes of mortality related to cancer in Portugal, may lead to hematogenous metastasis. Adhesion of cancer cells to endothelium is considered one of the crucial steps involved in metastasis. In blood cells, this adhesion is initiated by endothelial selectin ligands (E-SL) that are glycoproteins or glycolipids decorated mostly with sialyl-Lewis x (sLex) and sialyl-Lewis a (sLea). While LC has been described as expressing these sialyl Lewis antigens, its functional role in allowing LC adhesion to endothelium is still poorly understood. We analyzed paired tumor and normal tissues samples from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients and three LC cell lines. Immunoblotting assays with anti-sLex/sLea and E-selectin chimera demonstrated that LC tumor tissues significantly overexpress E-SL and flow cytometry results indicated that E-SL are also abundantly expressed in LC cell lines. To understand the mechanism behind the overexpression of E-SL in LC tissues and cell lines, we analyzed the expression of genes involved in its biosynthesis, namely FUT3, FUT4, FUT6, FUT7, ST3GAL3, ST3GAL4, ST3GAL6, β4GALT1, GCNT1 and GALNT3. It was observed the overexpression of fucosyltransferases FUT3, FUT6 and FUT7 in LC tumor tissues and FUT3 in LC cell lines, being this last one correlated with an increased reactivity of the LC cells to endothelial selectins. It was described that low expression of FUT4 in tumor tissues is correlated with early stages of NSCLC. We also analyzed scaffolds proteins of sLex/sLea and it was identified the carcinoembryonic antigen as an E-SL in NSCLC. In summary, this thesis contributed to a better understanding of the glycosidic changes and molecules that can influence tumor progression of LC, allowing identifying in the future new diagnosis/prognosis biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets for NSCLC.

Low blood glucose levels and other complications during growth hormone supplementation in sepsis

Blood glucose levels in the high normal range or even moderate hyperglycemia is the expected profile in septic postoperative patients receiving high-calorie enteral alimentation. The addition of growth hormone as an anabolic agent should additionally reinforce this tendency. In a cancer patient undergoing partial gastrectomy with lymphadenectomy and suffering from postoperative subphrenic abscess and prolonged sepsis, tube feeding (38.3 kcal/kg/day) and growth hormone (0.17 IU/kg/day) were simultaneously administered for 25 days. Blood glucose levels were in the lower limits of the normal range before growth hormone introduction, and continued with a similar tendency during most of the therapeutic period. Two additional complications, namely heart arrest and peripheral edema, were documented during the same period. It is concluded that sepsis was the most likely mechanism for low glucose values, and that high-calorie enteral diet and growth hormone supplementation did not prevent that result. It is uncertain whether heart arrest was due to the drug, but its association with peripheral edema is well documented in clinical series.

Optimization of production of anti-cancer vaccines based on dendritic cells

Cancer remains as one of the top killing diseases in first world countries. It’s not a single, but a set of various diseases for which different treatment approaches have been taken over the years. Cancer immunotherapy comes as a “new” breath on cancer treatment, taking use of the patients’ immune system to induce anti-cancer responses. Dendritic Cell (DC) vaccines use the extraordinary capacity of DCs’ antigen presentation so that specific T cell responses may be generated against cancer. In this work, we report the ex vivo generation of DCs from precursors isolated from clinical-grade cryopreserved umbilical cord blood (UCB) samples. After the thawing protocol for cryopreserved samples was optimized, the generation of DCs from CD14+ monocytes, i.e., moDCs, or CD34+ hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), i.e, CD34-derived DCs, was followed and their phenotype and function evaluated. Functional testing included the ability to respond to maturation stimuli (including enzymatic removal of surface sialic acids), Ovalbumin-FITC endocytic capacity, cytokine secretion and T cell priming ability. In order to evaluate the feasibility of using DCs derived from UCB precursors to induce immune responses, they were compared to peripheral blood (PB) moDCs. We observed an increased endocytosis capacity after moDCs were differentiated from monocyte precursors, but almost 10-fold lower than that of PB moDCs. Maturation markers were absent, low levels of inflammatory cytokines were seen and T cell stimulatory capacity was reduced. Sialidase enzymatic treatment was able to mature these cells, diminishing endocytosis and promoting higher T cell stimulation. CD34-derived DCs showed higher capacity for both maturation and endocytic capacity than moDCs. Although much more information was acquired from moDCs than from CD34-derived DCs, we conclude the last as probably the best suited for generating an immune response against cancer, but of course much more research has to be performed.

Colorectal cancer screening

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world, and mortality has remained the same for the past 50 years, despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. Because significant numbers of patients present with advanced or incurable stages, patients with pre-malignant lesions (adenomatous polyps) that occur as result of genetic inheritance or age should be screened, and patients with long-standing inflammatory bowel disease should undergo surveillance. There are different risk groups for CRC, as well as different screening strategies. It remains to be determined which screening protocol is the most cost-effective for each risk catagory. The objective of screening is to reduce morbidity and mortality in a target population. The purpose of this review is to analyze the results of the published CRC screening studies, with regard to the measured reduction of morbidity and mortality, due to CRC in the studied populations, following various screening procedures. The main screening techniques, used in combination or alone, include fecal occult blood tests, flexible sigmoidoscopy, and colonoscopy. Evidence from the published literature on screening methods for specific risk groups is scanty and frequently does not arise from controlled studies. Nevertheless, data from these studies, combined with recent advances in molecular genetics, certainly lead the way to greater efficacy and lower cost of CRC screening.

Chemotherapy versus best supportive care in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer, non metastatic to the brain

Stage IV non-small cell lung cancer is a fatal disease, with a median survival of 14 months. Systemic chemotherapy is the most common approach. However the impact in overall survival and quality of life still a controversy. OBJECTIVES: To determine differences in overall survival and quality of life among patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer non-metastatic to the brain treated with best supportive care versus systemic chemotherapy. PATIENTS: From February 1990 through December 1995, 78 eligible patients were admitted with the diagnosis of stage IV non-small cell lung cancer . Patients were divided in 2 groups: Group A (n=31 -- treated with best supportive care ), and Group B (n=47 -- treated with systemic chemotherapy). RESULTS: The median survival time was 23 weeks (range 5 -- 153 weeks) in Group A and 55 weeks (range 7.4 -- 213 weeks) in Group B (p=0.0018). In both groups, the incidence of admission for IV antibiotics and need of blood transfusions were similar. Patients receiving systemic chemotherapy were also stratified into those receiving mytomycin, vinblastin, and cisplatinum, n=25 and those receiving other combination regimens (platinum derivatives associated with other drugs, n=22). Patients receiving mytomycin, vinblastin, and cisplatinum, n=25 had a higher incidence of febrile neutropenia and had their cycles delayed for longer periods of time than the other group. These patients also had a shorter median survival time (51 versus 66 weeks, p=0.005). CONCLUSION: In patients with stage IV non-small cell lung cancer, non-metastatic to the brain, chemotherapy significantly increases survival compared with best supportive care.

Conventional approach x laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection for rectal cancer treatment after neoadjuvant chemoradiation: results of a prospective randomized trial

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to evaluate the safety and efficacy of laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection compared to conventional approach for surgical treatment of patients with distal rectal cancer presenting with incomplete response after chemoradiation. METHOD: Twenty eight patients with distal rectal adenocarcinoma were randomized to undergo surgical treatment by laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection or conventional approach and evaluated prospectively. Thirteen underwent laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection and 15 conventional approach. RESULTS: There was no significant difference (p<0,05) between the two studied groups regarding: gender, age, body mass index, patients with previous abdominal surgeries, intra and post operative complications, need for blood transfusion, hospital stay after surgery, length of resected segment and pathological staging. Mean operation time was 228 minutes for the laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection versus 284 minutes for the conventional approach (p=0.04). Mean anesthesia duration was shorter (p=0.03) for laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection when compared to conventional approach : 304 and 362 minutes, respectively. There was no need for conversion to open approach in this series. After a mean follow-up of 47.2 months and with the exclusion of two patients in the conventional abdominoperineal resection who presented with unsuspected synchronic metastasis during surgery, local recurrence was observed in two patients in the conventional group and in none in the laparoscopic group. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection is feasible, similar to conventional approach concerning surgery duration, intra operative morbidity, blood requirements and post operative morbidity. Larger number of cases and an extended follow-up are required to adequate evaluation of oncological results for patients undergoing laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection after chemoradiation for radical treatment of distal rectal cancer.

Longitudinal analysis of tumor marker CEA of breast cancer patients from Braga's hospital

Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.