Assessing the threshold temperatures among different age and cause-of-deaths

The relationship between temperature and mortality is non-linear and the effect estimates depend on the threshold temperatures selected. However, little is known about whether threshold temperatures differ with age or cause of deaths in the Southern Hemisphere. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear models to assess the threshold temperatures for mortality from all ages (Dall), aged from 15 to 64 (D15-64), 65- 84(D65-84), ≥85 years (D85+), respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2004. We examined both hot and cold thresholds, and the lags of up to 15 days for cold effects and 3 days for hot effects. Results show that for the current day, the cold threshold was 20°C and the hot threshold was 28°C for the groups of Dall, D15-64 and D85+. The cold threshold was higher (23°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (21°C) for the group of CVD. The hot threshold was higher (29°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (27°C) for the group of RD. Compared to the current day, for the cold effects of up to 15-day lags, the threshold was lower for the group of D15-64, and the thresholds were higher for the groups of D65-84, D85+, RD and CVD; while for the hot effects of 3-day lags, the threshold was higher for the group of D15-64 and the thresholds were lower for the groups of D65-84 and RD. Temperature thresholds appeared to differ with age and death categories. The elderly and deaths from RD and CVD were more sensitive to temperature stress than the adult group. These findings may have implications in the assessment of temperature-related mortality and development of weather/health warning systems.

Social policy implications relating to road trauma in a rapidly motorising world : the example of China

The World Health Organization (WHO) identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in all countries, though most notably among low-to-middle income countries and particularly those experiencing rapid motorisation, such as China. As China transitions from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership is increasingly desired, there is need to address the accompanying social policy challenges. With this increased motorisation has come an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (i.e., pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists) are of primary concern because they are most frequently killed in road crashes, representing approximately 70% of all Chinese road-related fatalities. The aim of this paper is to summarise the scale of the road trauma burden, highlight the disparity of this burden across the Chinese population, and discuss the related social policy implications in dealing with the impact of deaths and of otherwise healthy lives diminished by injury and disability. Future research priorities are also discussed and include the need to strive to provide detailed information on the level of inequity of the road trauma burden across the population and identify appropriate social supports and healthcare services required, both preventative and post-crash, so these can be developed and implemented throughout China.

Reviewing child deaths - Learning from the American experience

Current systems for investigating child deaths in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have come under intense scrutiny in recent years and questions have been raised about the accuracy of child death investigations and resulting statistics. Research has highlighted the ways in which multidisciplinary input can contribute to investigative and review processes, a perspective which is further supported by recent UK policy developments. The experience of creating multidisciplinary child death review teams (CDRTs) in America highlights the potential benefits the introduction of a similar system might have. These benefits include improved multi-agency working and communication, more effective identification of suspicious cases, a decrease in inadequate death certification and a broader and more in-depth understanding of the causes of child deaths through the systematic collection and analysis of data. While a lack of funding, regional coordination and evaluation limit the impact of American CDRTs, the positive aspects of this process make it worthwhile, and timely, to consider how such a model might fit within our own context. Current policy developments such as the Home Office review of coroner services, the Children Bill and related Department for Education and Skills (DfES) work on developing screening groups demonstrate that strides have been made in respect of introducing a multidisciplinary process. Similarly, the development of local protocols for the investigation and/or review of child deaths in England, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights an increased focus on multidisciplinary processes. However, key issues from the American experience, such as the remit of CDRTs/screening panels, the need for national coordination and the importance of rigorous evaluation, can inform the development of a similar process in the UK. Copyright ©2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Improving a regional chemotherapy service by learning from deaths occurring within 30 days of treatment with systemic anti-cancer therapy.

Background: Outwith clinical trials, patient outcomes specifically related to SACT (systemic anti-cancer therapy) are not well reported despite a significant proportion of patients receiving active treatment at the end of life. The NCEPOD reviewing deaths within 30 days of SACT found SACT caused or hastened death in 27% of cases.

Method: Across the Northern Ireland cancer network, 95 patients who died within 30 days of SACT for solid tumours were discussed at the Morbidity and Mortality monthly meeting during 2013. Using a structured template, each case was independently reviewed, with particular focus on whether SACT caused or hastened death.

Results: Lung, GI and breast cancers were the most common sites. Performance status was recorded in 92% at time of final SACT cycle (ECOG PS 0-2 89%).

In 57% the cause of death was progressive disease. Other causes included thromboembolism (13%) and infection (5% neutropenic sepsis, 6% non-neutropenic sepsis). In 26% with death from progressive disease, the patient was first cycle of first line treatment for metastatic disease. In the majority discussion regarding treatment aims and risks was documented. Only one patient was receiving SACT with curative intent, who died from appropriately managed neutropenic sepsis.

A definitive decision regarding SACT's role in death was made in 60%: in 49% SACT was deemed non-contributory and in 11% SACT was deemed the cause of death. In 40% SACT did not play a major role, but a definitive negative association could not be made.

Conclusion: Development of a robust review process of 30-day mortality after SACT established a benchmark for SACT delivery for future comparisons and identified areas for SACT service organisation improvement. Moreover it encourages individual practice reflection and highlights the importance of balancing patients' needs and concerns with realistic outcomes and risks, particularly in heavily pre-treated patients or those of poor performance status.

Chagas disease-related mortality trends, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985 to 2006: a study using multiple causes of death

Objectives. To study mortality trends related to Chagas disease taking into account all mentions of this cause listed on any line or part of the death certificate. Methods. Mortality data for 1985-2006 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Chagas disease was classified as the underlying cause-of-death or as an associated cause-of-death (non-underlying). The total number of times Chagas disease was mentioned on the death certificates was also considered. Results. During this 22-year period, there were 40 002 deaths related to Chagas disease: 34 917 (87.29%) classified as the underlying cause-of-death and 5 085 (12.71%) as an associated cause-of-death. The results show a 56.07% decline in the death rate due to Chagas disease as the underlying cause and a stabilized rate as associated cause. The number of deaths was 44.5% higher among men. The fact that 83.5% of the deaths occurred after 45 years of age reflects a cohort effect. The main causes associated with Chagas disease as the underlying cause-of-death were direct complications due to cardiac involvement, such as conduction disorders, arrhythmias and heart failure. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disorders and neoplasms were the main underlying causes when Chagas was an associated cause-of-death. Conclusions. For the total mentions to Chagas disease, a 51.34% decline in the death rate was observed, whereas the decline in the number of deaths was only 5.91%, being lower among women and showing a shift of deaths to older age brackets. Using the multiple cause-of-death method contributed to the understanding of the natural history of Chagas disease.

Paracoccidioidomycosis-related mortality trend, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a study using multiple causes of death

Objective. To investigate mortality in which paracoccidioidomycosis appears on any line or part of the death certificate. Method. Mortality data for 1985-2005 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Standardized mortality coefficients were calculated for paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death and as an associated cause-of-death, as well as for the total number of times paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned on the death certificates. Results. During this 21-year period, there were 1950 deaths related to paracoccidioidomycosis; the disease was the underlying cause-of-death in 1 164 cases (59.69%) and an associated cause-of-death in 786 (40.31%). Between 1985 and 2005 records show a 59.8% decline in the mortality coefficient due to paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause and a 53.0% decline in the mortality as associated cause. The largest number of deaths occurred among men, in the older age groups, and among rural workers, with an upward trend in winter months. The main causes associated with paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death were pulmonary fibrosis, chronic lower respiratory tract diseases, and pneumonias. Malignant neoplasms and AIDS were the main underlying causes when paracoccidioidomycosis was an associated cause-of-death. The decision tables had to be adapted for the automated processing of causes of death in death certificates where paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned. Conclusions. Using the multiple cause-of-death method together with the traditional underlying cause-of-death approach provides a new angle on research aimed at broadening our understanding of the natural history of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Intraoperative and Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest and Its Mortality in Older Patients: A 15-Year Survey in a Tertiary Teaching Hospital

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Automated Analysis Methods for the Assessment of Bicycle Infrastructure and Demand

A first phase of the research activity has been related to the study of the state of art of the infrastructures for cycling, bicycle use and methods for evaluation. In this part, the candidate has studied the "bicycle system" in countries with high bicycle use and in particular in the Netherlands. Has been carried out an evaluation of the questionnaires of the survey conducted within the European project BICY on mobility in general in 13 cities of the participating countries. The questionnaire was designed, tested and implemented, and was later validated by a test in Bologna. The results were corrected with information on demographic situation and compared with official data. The cycling infrastructure analysis was conducted on the basis of information from the OpenStreetMap database. The activity consisted in programming algorithms in Python that allow to extract data from the database infrastructure for a region, to sort and filter cycling infrastructure calculating some attributes, such as the length of the arcs paths. The results obtained were compared with official data where available. The structure of the thesis is as follows: 1. Introduction: description of the state of cycling in several advanced countries, description of methods of analysis and their importance to implement appropriate policies for cycling. Supply and demand of bicycle infrastructures. 2. Survey on mobility: it gives details of the investigation developed and the method of evaluation. The results obtained are presented and compared with official data. 3. Analysis cycling infrastructure based on information from the database of OpenStreetMap: describes the methods and algorithms developed during the PhD. The results obtained by the algorithms are compared with official data. 4. Discussion: The above results are discussed and compared. In particular the cycle demand is compared with the length of cycle networks within a city. 5. Conclusions

Mortality and morbidity in the city of Bern, Switzerland, 1805-1815 with special emphasis on infant, child and maternal deaths

This article contributes to the research on demographics and public health of urban populations of preindustrial Europe. The key source is a burial register that contains information on the deceased, such as age and sex, residence and cause of death. This register is one of the earliest compilations of data sets of individuals with this high degree of completeness and consistency. Critical assessment of the register's origin, formation and upkeep promises high validity and reliability. Between 1805 and 1815, 4,390 deceased inhabitants were registered. Information concerning these individuals provides the basis for this study. Life tables of Bern's population were created using different models. The causes of death were classified and their frequency calculated. Furthermore, the susceptibility of age groups to certain causes of death was established. Special attention was given to causes of death and mortality of newborns, infants and birth-giving women. In comparison to other cities and regions in Central Europe, Bern's mortality structure shows low rates for infants (q0=0.144) and children (q1-4=0.068). This could have simply indicated better living conditions. Life expectancy at birth was 43 years. Mortality was high in winter and spring, and decreased in summer to a low level with a short rise in August. The study of the causes of death was inhibited by difficulties in translating early 19th century nomenclature into the modern medical system. Nonetheless, death from metabolic disorders, illnesses of the respiratory system, and debilitation were the most prominent causes in Bern. Apparently, the worst killer of infants up to 12 months was the "gichteren", an obsolete German term for lethal spasmodic convulsions. The exact modern identification of this disease remains unclear. Possibilities such as infant tetanus or infant epilepsy are discussed. The maternal death rate of 0.72% is comparable with values calculated from contemporaneous sources. Relevance of childbed fever in the early 1800s was low. Bern's data indicate that the extent of deaths related to childbirth in this period is overrated. This research has an explicit interdisciplinary value for various fields including both the humanities and natural sciences, since information reported here represents the complete age and sex structure of a deceased population. Physical anthropologists can use these data as a true reference group for their palaeodemographic studies of preindustrial Central Europe of the late 18th and early 19th century. It is a call to both historians and anthropologists to use our resources to a better effect through combination of methods and exchange of knowledge.

Overview of literature and information on "khat-related" mortality: a call for recognition of the issue and further research

During the past 20 years or so, more has become known about the properties of khat, its pharmacology, physiological and psychological effects on humans. However, at the same time its reputation of social and recreational use in traditional contexts has hindered the dissemination of knowledge about its detrimental effects in terms of mortality. This paper focuses on this particular deficit and adds to the knowledge-base by reviewing the scant literature that does exist on mortality associated with the trade and use of khat. We sought all peer-reviewed papers relating to deaths associated with khat. From an initial list of 111, we identified 15 items meeting our selection criteria. Examination of these revealed 61 further relevant items. These were supplemented with published reports, newspaper and other media reports. A conceptual framework was then developed for classifying mortality associated with each stage of the plant's journey from its cultivation, transportation, consumption, to its effects on the human body. The model is demonstrated with concrete examples drawn from the above sources. These highlight a number of issues for which more substantive statistical data are needed, including population-based studies of the physiological and psychological determinants of khat-related fatalities. Khat-consuming communities, and health professionals charged with their care should be more aware of the physiological and psychological effects of khat, together with the risks for morbidity and mortality associated with its use. There is also a need for information to be collected at international and national levels on other causes of death associated with khat cultivation, transportation, and trade. Both these dimensions need to be understood.

Impact of aerobic exercise capacity and procedure-related factors in lung cancer surgery

Over the past decades, major progress in patient selection, surgical techniques and anaesthetic management have largely contributed to improved outcome in lung cancer surgery. The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of post-operative cardiopulmonary morbidity in patients with a forced expiratory volume in 1 s <80% predicted, who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). In this observational study, 210 consecutive patients with lung cancer underwent CPET with completed data over a 9-yr period (2001-2009). Cardiopulmonary complications occurred in 46 (22%) patients, including four (1.9%) deaths. On logistic regression analysis, peak oxygen uptake (peak V'(O₂) and anaesthesia duration were independent risk factors of both cardiovascular and pulmonary complications; age and the extent of lung resection were additional predictors of cardiovascular complications, whereas tidal volume during one-lung ventilation was a predictor of pulmonary complications. Compared with patients with peak V'(O₂) >17 mL·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹, those with a peak V'(O₂) <10 mL·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ had a four-fold higher incidence of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. Our data support the use of pre-operative CPET and the application of an intra-operative protective ventilation strategy. Further studies should evaluate whether pre-operative physical training can improve post-operative outcome.

HCV-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis: randomized controlled trial of pegylated interferon alpha-2a and ribavirin

In patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, 30% of sustained HCV clearance has been reported with pegylated interferon alpha-2a (PEG-IFN) alone, but the efficacy and tolerability of the PEG-IFN/ribavirin (RBV) combination remain poorly defined. A total of 124 treatment-naïve patients with biopsy proved HCV-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (Ishak score F4-F6, Child-Pugh score < or =7) were randomized to 48 weeks of PEG-IFN (180 microg sc weekly) and standard dose of RBV (1000/1200 mg po daily, STD) or PEG-IFN (180 microg sc weekly) and low-dose of RBV (600/800 mg po daily, LOW). Sustained virologic response (SVR) rates with PEG-IFN/STD RBV (52%) were higher--albeit not significantly--than that with PEG-IFN/LOW RBV (38%, P = 0.153). In multivariate analysis, genotype 2/3 and a baseline platelet count > or =150 x 10(9)/L were independently associated with SVR. The likelihood of SVR was < 7% if viraemia had not declined by > or =2 log or to undetectable levels after 12 weeks. Nine adverse events in the STD RBV and 15 in the LOW RBV group were classified as severe (including two deaths); dose reductions for intolerance were required in 78% and 57% (P = 0.013), and treatment was terminated early in 23% and 27% of patients (P = n.s.). The benefit/risk ratio of treating compensated HCV-cirrhotics with STD PEG-IFN/RBV is favourable.

Biologically relevant sex differences for fitness-related parameters in active octogenarians

The number of elderly people is growing in western populations, but only few maximal performance data exist for people >75 years, in particular for European octogenarians. This study was performed to characterize maximal performance of 55 independently living subjects (32 women, 81.1 +/- 3.4 years; 23 men, 81.7 +/- 2.9 years) with a focus on sex differences. Maximal performance was determined in a ramp test to exhaustion on a bicycle ergometer with ergospirometry, electrocardiogram and blood lactate measurements. Maximal isometric extension strength of the legs (MEL) was measured on a force platform in a seated position. Body composition was quantified by X-ray absorptiometry. In >25% of the subjects, serious cardiac abnormalities were detected during the ramp test with men more frequently being affected than women. Maximal oxygen consumption and power output were 18.2 +/- 3.2 versus 25.9 +/- 5.9 ml min(-1) kg(-1) and 66 +/- 12 versus 138 +/- 40 W for women versus men, with a significant sex difference for both parameters. Men outperformed women for MEL with 19.0 +/- 3.8 versus 13.6 +/- 3.3 N kg(-1). Concomitantly, we found a higher proportion of whole body fat in women (32.1 +/- 6.2%) compared to men (20.5 +/- 4.4%). Our study extends previously available maximal performance data for endurance and strength to independently living European octogenarians. As all sex-related differences were still apparent after normalization to lean body mass, it is concluded that it is essential to differentiate between female and male subjects when considering maximal performance parameters in the oldest segment of our population.