Contribuição à confiabilidade de estacas cravadas através de um estudo de caso com aplicação da teoria Bayesiana.

Nos diversos segmentos da Geotecnia e em especial na área de fundações, o engenheiro se depara com uma série de incertezas. Algumas destas incertezas são inerentes à variabilidade local do solo, às condições de carregamento, aos efeitos do tempo, às diferenças nos processos executivos, erros de sondagens, que influenciam diretamente a estimativa da capacidade de carga da fundação, seja por ocasião de seu carregamento estático, seja durante ou logo após a cravação. O objetivo desta dissertação é a adaptação, a estacas em terra (onshore), de um procedimento concebido originalmente para emprego em estacas offshore, que trata da atualização da estimativa da resistência durante a cravação, com base em registros documentados durante a execução. Neste procedimento a atualização é feita através da aplicação dos conceitos da análise Bayesiana, assumindo que os parâmetros da distribuição probabilística utilizada sejam variáveis randômicas. A incerteza dos parâmetros é modelada por distribuições a priori e a posteriori. A distribuição a posteriori é calculada pela atualização da distribuição a priori, utilizando uma função de máxima verossimilhança, que contém a observação obtida dos registros de cravação. O procedimento é aplicado a um conjunto de estacas de um extenso estaqueamento executado na Zona Oeste do Rio de Janeiro. As estimativas atualizadas são posteriormente comparadas aos resultados dos ensaios de carregamento dinâmico. Várias aplicações podem surgir com o emprego deste procedimento, como a seleção das estacas que, por apresentarem reduzido valor de estimativa atualizada de resistência, ou uma maior incerteza desta estimativa, devam ser submetidas a provas de carga. A extensão deste estudo a diferentes tipos de estacas em perfis de solo de natureza distintos poderá levar ao desenvolvimento de sistemas mais adequados de controle de execução, capazes de identificar as principais incertezas presentes nos diferentes tipos de execução de estacas, contribuindo assim para a otimização de futuros projetos de fundações.

A prior for steepness in stock-recruitment relationships, based on an evolutionary persistence principle

Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values.

Tendências Espaciais e Temporais da Epidemia da AIDS em maiores de 50 Anos no Município de Niterói - RJ

A síndrome de imunodeficiência adquirida (AIDS) é um problema de saúde pública que alcançou grandes proporções. Na ausência de uma vacina eficaz ou tratamento efetivo para a doença, esforços têm ser concentrados na prevenção. As políticas de saúde adotadas pelo governo brasileiro têm resultado em estabilização da enfermidade no país na faixa etária mais jovem, muito embora essa tendência não venha acontecendo nos outros grupos etários mais velhos. Verificar a incidência da AIDS em indivíduos idosos, no município de Niterói, RJ, de acordo com sexo, idade, período e coorte de nascimento de 1982-2011, além de analisar a dinâmica espacial da epidemia de AIDS em idosos (indivíduos com 60 anos ou mais) no estado do Rio de Janeiro no período de 1997-2011, são os objetivos deste estudo. Os dados da população por idade, sexo e grupo, foram obtidos a partir de: censos populacionais, contagem da população (1996), projeções intercensitárias, informações do Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação, de Mortalidade e de Controle de Exames Laboratoriais. As taxas de incidência por 100 000 foram calculadas para as unidades geográficas através da contagem do número de novos casos de AIDS em indivíduos com 60 anos ou mais e tamanho da população do município no mesmo grupo etário. Para avaliar a dependência espacial das taxas foi calculado o índice de Moran global. Moran Mapas foram construídos para mostrar regimes de correlação espacial potencialmente distintos em diferentes subregiões. Distribuições de probabilidade e método Bayes empírico foram aplicados para a correção das taxas de incidência da AIDS. Ocorreram 575 casos de AIDS em residentes de Niterói com ≥50 anos de idade. Tendência crescente de taxas de incidência ao longo do tempo foi detectada em ambos os sexos. No estudo da dinâmica espacial da incidência da AIDS em idosos, Rio de Janeiro, no período de 1997 a 2011, as taxas entre homens e mulheres permaneceram flutuantes ao longo de todo o período. Não foi possível detectar correlação significativa global, usando o índice global de Moran. Na costa sudeste do Estado, onde se localizam as grandes áreas metropolitanas (Rio de Janeiro e Niterói), observaram-se grupos de cidades com taxas de até 20 casos por 100 000 hab. Esta concentração se torna mais pronunciada em períodos subsequentes, quando parece ocorrer propagação gradual da epidemia da costa sul até o norte do Rio de Janeiro.

Population structure of island-associated dolphins: evidence from photo-identification of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the main Hawaiian Islands

Management agencies often use geopolitical boundaries as proxies for biological boundaries. In Hawaiian waters a single stock is recognized of common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, a species that is found both in open water and near-shore among the main Hawaiian Islands. To assess population structure, we photo-identified 336 distinctive individuals from the main Hawaiian Islands, from 2000 to 2006. Their generally shallow-water distribution, and numerous within-year and between-year resightings within island areas suggest that individuals are resident to the islands, rather than part of an offshore population moving through the area. Comparisons of identifications obtained from Kaua‘i/Ni‘ihau, O‘ahu, the “4-island area,” and the island of Hawai‘i showed no evidence of movements among these island groups, although movements from Kaua‘i to Ni‘ihau and among the “4-islands” were documented. A Bayesian analysis examining the probability of missing movements among island groups, given our sample sizes for different areas, indicates that interisland movement rates are less than 1% per year with 95% probability. Our results suggest the existence of multiple demographically independent populations of island-associated common bottlenose dolphins around the main Hawaiian islands.

The complete mitochondrial genome of the Chinese hook snout carp Opsariichthys bidens (Actinopterygii : Cyprinifonnes) and an altemative pattem of mitogenomic evolution in vertebrate

The complete mitochondrial genome sequence of the Chinese hook snout carp, Opsariichthys bidens, was newly determined using the long and accurate polymerase chain reaction method. The 16,611-nucleotide mitogenome contains 13 protein-coding genes, two rRNA genes (12S, 16S) 22 tRNA genes, and a noncoding control region. We use these data and homologous sequence data from multiple other ostariophysan fishes in a phylogenetic evaluation to test hypothesis pertaining to codon usage pattern of O. bidens mitochondrial protein genes as well as to re-examine the ostariophysan phylogeny. The mitochondrial genome of O. bidens reveals an alternative pattern of vertebrate mitochondrial evolution. For the mitochondrial protein genes of O. bidens, the most frequently used codon generally ends with either A or C, with C preferred over A for most fourfold degenerate codon families; the relative synonymous codon usage of G-ending codons is greatly elevated in all categories. The codon usage pattern of O. bidens mitochondrial protein genes is remarkably different from the general pattern found previously in the relatively closely 9 related zebrafish and most other vertebrate mitochondria. Nucleotide bias at third codon positions is the main cause of codon bias in the mitochondrial protein genes of O. bidens, as it is biased particularly in favor of C over A. Bayesian analysis of 12 concatenated mitochondrial protein sequences for O. bidens and 46 other teleostean taxa supports the monophyly of Cypriniformes and Otophysi and results in a robust estimate of the otophysan phylogeny. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Molecular phylogeny of Stentor (Ciliophora : Heterotrichea) based on small subunit ribosomal RNA sequences

To determine the phylogenetic position of Stentor within the Class Heterotrichea, the complete small subunit rRNA genes of three Stentor species, namely Stentor polymorphus, Stentor coeruleus, and Stentor roeseli, were sequenced and used to construct phylogenetic trees using the maximum parsimony, neighbor joining, and Bayesian analysis. With all phylogenetic methods, the genus Stentor was monophyletic, with S. roeseli branching basally.

Molecular evidence for the monophyly of East Asian groups of Cyprinidae (Teleostei : Cypriniformes) derived from the nuclear recombination activating gene 2 sequences

The family Cyprinidae is one of the largest families of fishes in the world and a well-known component of the East Asian freshwater fish fauna. However, the phylogenetic relationships among cyprinids are still poorly understood despite much effort paid on the cyprinid molecular phylogenetics. Original nucleotide sequence data of the nuclear recombination activating gene 2 were collected from 109 cyprinid species and four non-cyprinid cypriniform outgroup taxa and used to infer the cyprinid phylogenetic relationships and to estimate node divergence times. Phylogenetic reconstructions using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analysis retrieved the same clades, only branching order within these clades varied slightly between trees. Although the morphological diversity is remarkable, the endemic cyprinid taxa in East Asia emerged as a monophyletic clade referred to as Xenocypridini. The monophyly for the subfamilies including Cyprininae and Leuciscinae, as well as the tribes including Labeonini, Gobionini, Acheilognathini, and Leuciscini, was also well resolved with high nodal support. Analysis of the RAG2 gene supported the following cyprinid molecular phylogeny: the Danioninae is the most basal subfamily within the family Cyprinidae and the Cyprininae is the sister group of the Leuciscinae. The divergence times were estimated for the nodes corresponding to the principal clades within the Cyprinidae. The family Cyprinidae appears to have originated in the mid-Eocene in Asia, with the cladogenic event of the key basal group Danioninae occurring in the early Oligocene (about 31-30 MYA), and the origins of the two subfamilies, Cyprininae and Leuciscinae, occurring in the mid-Oligocene (around 26 MYA). (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Deciding between theories of how reasoning develops is hard

Although Sloutsky agrees with our interpretation of our data, he argues that the totality of the evidence supports his claim that children make inductive generalisations on the basis of similarity. Here we take issue with his characterisation of the alternative hypotheses in his informal analysis of the data, and suggest that a thorough Bayesian analysis, although practically very difficult, is likely to result in a more finely balanced outcome than he suggests. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The vegetation and climate history of the last glacial cycle in a new pollen record from Lake Fimon (southern Alpine foreland, N-Italy)

The sediments of Like Fimon N Italy contain the first continuous archive of the Late Pleistocene environmental and climate history of the southern Alpine foreland We present here the detailed palynological record of the interval between Termination II and the List Glacial Maximum The age-depth model is obtained by radiocarbon dating in the uppermost part of the record Downward we con elated major forest expansion and contraction events to isotopic events in the Greenland Ice core records via a stepping-stone approach involving intermediate correlation to isotopic events dated by TIMS U/Th in Alpine and Apennine stalagmites and to pollen records from mime cores of the Iberian margin Modelled ages obtained by Bayesian analysis of deposition are thoroughly consistent with actual ages with maximum offset of +/- 1700 years Sharp expansion of broad-leaved temperate forest and of sudden water table rise mark the onset of the Last Interglacial after a treeless steppe phase at the end of penultimate glaciation This event is actually a two-step process which matches the two step rise observed in the isotopic record of the nearby Antro del Corchia stalagmite respectively dated to 132 5 +/- 2 5 and 129 +/- 1 5 ka At the interglacial decline mixed oak forests were replaced by oceanic mixed forests the latter persisting further for 7 ka till the end of the Eemian succession Warm-temperate woody species are still abundant at the Eemian end corroborating a steep gradient between central Europe and the Alpine divide at the inception of the last glacial After a stadial phase marked by moderate forest decline a new expansion of warm broad leaved forests interrupted by minor events and followed by mixed oceanic forests can be identified with the north-alpine Saint Germain I The spread of beech during the oceanic phase is a valuable circumalpine marker The subsequent stadial-interstadial succession lacking the telocratic oceanic phase is also consistent with the evidence at the north alpine foreland The Middle Wurmian (full glacial) is marked by persistence of mixed forests dominated by conifers but with significant lime and other broad leaved species A major Arboreal Pollen decrease is observed at modelled age of 38 7 +/- 0 5 ka (larch expansion and last occurrence of lime) which his been related to Heinrich Event 4 The evidence of afforestation persisting south of the Alps throughout most of MIS 3 contrasts with a boreal and continental landscape known for the northern alpine foreland pointing to a sharp rainfall boundary at the Alpine divide and to southern air circulation This is in agreement with the Alpine paleoglaciological record and is supported by the pressure and rainfall patterns designed by mesoscale paleoclimate simulations Strenghtening the continental high pressure during the full glacial triggered cyclogenesis in the middle latitude eastern Europe and orographic rainfall in the eastern Alps and the Balkanic mountains thus allowing forests development at current sea level altitudes (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

This paper employs the one-sector Real Business Cycle model as a testing ground for four different procedures to estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The procedures are: 1 ) Maximum Likelihood, with and without measurement errors and incorporating Bayesian priors, 2) Generalized Method of Moments, 3) Simulated Method of Moments, and 4) Indirect Inference. Monte Carlo analysis indicates that all procedures deliver reasonably good estimates under the null hypothesis. However, there are substantial differences in statistical and computational efficiency in the small samples currently available to estimate DSGE models. GMM and SMM appear to be more robust to misspecification than the alternative procedures. The implications of the stochastic singularity of DSGE models for each estimation method are fully discussed.

Time Reversibility of Stationary Regular Finite State Markov Chains

We propose an alternate parameterization of stationary regular finite-state Markov chains, and a decomposition of the parameter into time reversible and time irreversible parts. We demonstrate some useful properties of the decomposition, and propose an index for a certain type of time irreversibility. Two empirical examples illustrate the use of the proposed parameter, decomposition and index. One involves observed states; the other, latent states.