Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

How did varying levels of intensity of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake differentially affect women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes?

This paper uses a difference in difference model to investigate the impact of a large scale and high mortality 2005 earthquake in Pakistan on women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes. Using a nationally representative, cross sectional DHS data from 2006 and geographical data from USGS, this paper investigates how variation in earthquake intensity levels can differentially impact total fertility for women and the likelihood of children suffering from diseases such as diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) and fever. The post-earthquake results demonstrate a statistically significant increase in total fertility for areas closer to the epicenter of the earthquake, within a 100km radius of the rupture surface and at higher altitudes. Similarly, for children who were in-utero at the time of the earthquake, the probability of having early symptoms of ARI or fever was much smaller in lower earthquake intensity zones compared to the highest intensity zone.

The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil

EMOND, Alan et al. The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/ Pan American Journal of Public Health , v.12, n.2, p.101-110, 2002

The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil

EMOND, Alan et al. The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/ Pan American Journal of Public Health , v.12, n.2, p.101-110, 2002

Main causes of death in Dande, Angola: results from verbal autopsies of deaths occurring during 2009–2012

bACKGROUND - The Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) located in Bengo province, Angola, covers nearly 65,500 residents living in approximately 19,800 households. This study aims to describe the main causes of deaths (CoD) occurred within the HDSS, from 2009 to 2012, and to explore associations between demographic or socioeconomic factors and broad mortality groups (Group I-Communicable diseases, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions; Group II-Non-communicable diseases; Group III-Injuries; IND-Indeterminate). Methods - Verbal Autopsies (VA) were performed after death identification during routine HDSS visits. Associations between broad groups of CoD and sex, age, education, socioeconomic position, place of residence and place of death, were explored using chi-square tests and fitting logistic regression models. Results - From a total of 1488 deaths registered, 1009 verbal autopsies were performed and 798 of these were assigned a CoD based on the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Mortality was led by CD (61.0%), followed by IND (18.3%), NCD (11.6%) and INJ (9.1%). Intestinal infectious diseases, malnutrition and acute respiratory infections were the main contributors to under-five mortality (44.2%). Malaria was the most common CoD among children under 15 years old (38.6%). Tuberculosis, traffic accidents and malaria led the CoD among adults aged 15–49 (13.5%, 10.5 % and 8.0% respectively). Among adults aged 50 or more, diseases of the circulatory system (23.2%) were the major CoD, followed by tuberculosis (8.2%) and malaria (7.7%). CD were more frequent CoD among less educated people (adjusted odds ratio, 95% confidence interval for none vs. 5 or more years of school: 1.68, 1.04–2.72). Conclusion - Infectious diseases were the leading CoD in this region. Verbal autopsies proved useful to identify the main CoD, being an important tool in settings where vital statistics are scarce and death registration systems have limitations.

Diez primeras causas de morbilidad en emergencia del Hospital Homero Castanier Crespo en el periodo de octubre a diciembre del 2014. Azogues-Ecuador

Antecedentes: Es preciso mencionar que en México en el 2005 estadísticas muestran que las principales causas de morbilidad en su servicio de emergencias las constituyen: Infecciones respiratorias agudas (19,4%), los traumatismos y envenenamientos (18,8%) y las enfermedades diarreicas (8%). (14). En Perú la principal causa de morbilidad se debió a traumatismos (12% del total), seguido en segundo lugar de asma (10%) y en tercer lugar por anormalidades y complicaciones del embarazo, parto o puerperio (8% del total). (5) Objetivo: Determinar las 10 primeras causas de morbilidad en emergencia del Hospital Homero Castanier Crespo en el período de octubre a diciembre 2014. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional indirecto, mediante el registro de emergencia del total de pacientes que han acudido a emergencia en el Hospital Homero Castanier Crespo en período comprendido entre octubre – noviembre del 2014. El instrumento utilizado fue el formulario de recolección de datos (ver anexo 2). Resultados: la principal causa de morbilidad en la emergencia del Hospital Homero Castenier Crespo constituyen las enfermedades infecciosas: Enfermedades infecciosas intestinales, Amigdalitis aguda con un 10.86%. Gran parte de las morbilidades atendidas en la emergencia 20.85%, no son emergencias reales. En grupos edad pediátrica y adultos mayores, la principal causa fueron las Enfermedades infecciosas intestinales 14.52%, 6.96% respectivamente, que en este grupo si constituyen un verdadera emergencia. En ginecobstetricia: Falso trabajo de parto a las 37 y más semanas completas de gestación Conclusión: el estudio muestra las principales causas de morbilidad en el Hospital Homero Cartanier Crespo, revela una saturación del sistema por la cantidad de no emergencias que se atienden. Probablemente por la falta de un triage adecuado

Human respiratory syncytial virus in children hospitalized for acute lower respiratory infection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Immunofluorescence versus xTAG multiplex PCR for the detection of respiratory picornavirus infections in children

BACKGROUND: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is a sensitive tool for detection of respiratory picornaviruses. However, the clinical relevance of picornavirus detection by PCR is unclear. Immunofluorescence (IF), widely used to detect other respiratory viruses, has recently been introduced as a promising detection method for respiratory picornaviruses. OBJECTIVES: To compare the clinical manifestations of respiratory picornavirus infections detected by IF with those of respiratory picornavirus infections detected by xTAG multiplex PCR in hospitalized children. STUDY DESIGN: During a 1-year period, nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) from all children hospitalized due to an acute respiratory infection were prospectively analyzed by IF. All respiratory picornavirus positive IF samples and 100 IF negative samples were further tested with xTAG multiplex PCR. After exclusion of children with co-morbidities and viral co-infections, monoinfections with respiratory picornaviruses were detected in 108 NPA of 108 otherwise healthy children by IF and/or PCR. We compared group 1 children (IF and PCR positive, n=84) with group 2 children (IF negative and PCR positive, n=24) with regard to clinical manifestations of the infection. RESULTS: Wheezy bronchitis was diagnosed more often in group 1 than in group 2 (71% vs. 46%, p=0.028). In contrast, group 2 patients were diagnosed more frequently with pneumonia (17% vs. 6%, p=0.014) accompanied by higher levels of C-reactive protein (46mg/l vs. 11mg/l, p=0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Picornavirus detection by IF in children with acute respiratory infection is associated with the clinical presentation of wheezy bronchitis. The finding of a more frequent diagnosis of pneumonia in picornavirus PCR positive but IF negative children warrants further investigation.

Predictors of an antibiotic prescription by GPs for respiratory tract infections: a pilot

Background. Antibiotics are over-prescribed for respiratory tract infections in Australia. Objectives. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical predictors of GPs' prescribing of antibiotics. Methods. We used Clinical Judgment Analysis to study the responses of GPs to hypothetical paper-based vignettes of a 20-year-old with a respiratory tract infection. The nature of four symptoms and signs (colour of nasal mucous discharge; soreness of the throat; presence of fever; and whether any cough was productive of sputum) was varied and their effect on prescribing measured using logistic regression. Results. Twenty GPs participated. The nature of each symptom and sign significantly predicted prescribing of an antibiotic. Cough productive of yellow sputum; presence of sore throat; fever; and coloured nasal mucus increased the probability of an antibiotic being prescribed. Conclusions. GPs are influenced by clinical signs and symptoms to use antibiotics for respiratory infections for which there is poor evidence of efficacy from the literature.

Bronchiectasis exacerbation study on azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate for respiratory exacerbations in children (BEST-2) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background Bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis (CF) is being increasingly recognized in children and adults globally, both in resource-poor and in affluent countries. However, high-quality evidence to inform management is scarce. Oral amoxycillin-clavulanate is often the first antibiotic chosen for non-severe respiratory exacerbations, because of the antibiotic-susceptibility patterns detected in the respiratory pathogens commonly associated with bronchiectasis. Azithromycin has a prolonged half-life, and with its unique anti-bacterial, immunomodulatory, and anti-inflammatory properties, presents an attractive alternative. Our proposed study will test the hypothesis that oral azithromycin is non-inferior (within a 20% margin) to amoxycillin-clavulanate at achieving resolution of non-severe respiratory exacerbations by day 21 of treatment in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. Methods This will be a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial involving six Australian and New Zealand centers. In total, 170 eligible children will be stratified by site and bronchiectasis etiology, and randomized (allocation concealed) to receive: 1) azithromycin (5 mg/kg daily) with placebo amoxycillin-clavulanate or 2) amoxycillin-clavulanate (22.5 mg/kg twice daily) with placebo azithromycin for 21 days as treatment for non-severe respiratory exacerbations. Clinical data and a parent-proxy cough-specific quality of life (PC-QOL) score will be obtained at baseline, at the start and resolution of exacerbations, and on day 21. In most children, blood and deep-nasal swabs will also be collected at the same time points. The primary outcome is the proportion of children whose exacerbations have resolved at day 21. The main secondary outcome is the PC-QOL score. Other outcomes are: time to next exacerbation; requirement for hospitalization; duration of exacerbation, and spirometry data. Descriptive viral and bacteriological data from nasal samples and blood inflammatory markers will be reported where available. Discussion Currently, there are no published randomized controlled trials (RCT) to underpin effective, evidence-based management of acute respiratory exacerbations in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. To help address this information gap, we are conducting two RCTs. The first (bronchiectasis exacerbation study; BEST-1) evaluates the efficacy of azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate compared with placebo, and the second RCT (BEST-2), described here, is designed to determine if azithromycin is non-inferior to amoxycillin-clavulanate in achieving symptom resolution by day 21 of treatment in children with acute respiratory exacerbations. Trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR) number ACTRN12612000010897. http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?id=347879

The impact of viral respiratory infection on the severity and recovery from an asthma exacerbation

Background Viral respiratory illness triggers asthma exacerbations, but the influence of respiratory illness on the acute severity and recovery of childhood asthma is unknown. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of a concurrent acute respiratory illness (based on a clinical definition and PCR detection of a panel of respiratory viruses, Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Chlamydia pneumoniae) on the severity and resolution of symptoms in children with a nonhospitalized exacerbation of asthma. Methods Subjects were children aged 2 to 15 years presenting to an emergency department for an acute asthma exacerbation and not hospitalized. Acute respiratory illness (ARI) was clinically defined. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) were examined for respiratory viruses, Chlamydia and Mycoplasma using PCR. The primary outcome was quality of life (QOL) on presentation, day 7 and day 14. Secondary outcomes were acute asthma severity score, asthma diary, and cough diary scores on days 5, 7,10, and 14. Results On multivariate regression, presence of ARI was statistically but not clinically significantly associated with QOL score on presentation (B = 0.36, P = 0.025). By day 7 and 14, there was no difference between groups. Asthma diary score was significantly higher in children with ARI (B = 0.41, P = 0.039) on day 5 but not on presentation or subsequent days. Respiratory viruses were detected in 54% of the 78 NPAs obtained. There was no difference in the any of the asthma outcomes of children grouped by positive or negative NPA. Conclusions The presence of a viral respiratory illness has a modest influence on asthma severity, and does not influence recovery from a nonhospitalized asthma exacerbation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Identifying research priorities on infections in older adults:Proceedings of an interdisciplinary workshop

Background: Infections pose a substantial burden to the health of older adults. In this report, we describe the proceedings of a workshop to formulate and prioritize research questions about infections in older adults using an interdisciplinary approach. Methods: Researchers from four sectors (basic science, clinical sciences, health services and epidemiology/determinants of health) and representatives from various Canadian local, provincial, and federal stakeholder groups were invited to a two-day workshop. Five multi-disciplinary groups and stakeholders from each of three healthcare settings (long term, acute care and community) discussed research priorities for each of the settings. Five to ten research questions were identified for each setting. Results: The research questions proposed ranged from risk factors and outcomes for different infections to the effect of nutrition on infection and the role of alternative and complementary medicine in treating infections. Health service issues included barriers to immunization, prolongation of hospital length of stay by infection, use of care paths for managing infections, and decision-making in determining the site of care for individuals with infections. Clinical questions included risk factor assessment for infection, the effectiveness of preventative strategies, and technology evaluation. Epidemiologic issues included the challenge of achieving a better understanding of respiratory infections in the community and determining the prevalence of colonization with multi-resistant bacteria. Conclusions: The questions are of direct relevance to researchers in a wide variety of fields. Bringing together a multi-disciplinary group of researchers to frame and prioritize research questions about aging is feasible, participants valued the opinions of people working in other areas.

Respiratory syncytial virus infections enhance cigarette smoke induced COPD in mice

Respiratory syncytial viral (RSV) infections are a frequent cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, which are a major factor in disease progression and mortality. RSV is able to evade antiviral defenses to persist in the lungs of COPD patients. Though RSV infection has been identified in COPD, its contribution to cigarette smoke-induced airway inflammation and lung tissue destruction has not been established. Here we examine the long-term effects of cigarette smoke exposure, in combination with monthly RSV infections, on pulmonary inflammation, protease production and remodeling in mice. RSV exposures enhanced the influx of macrophages, neutrophils and lymphocytes to the airways of cigarette smoke exposed C57BL/6J mice. This infiltration of cells was most pronounced around the vasculature and bronchial airways. By itself, RSV caused significant airspace enlargement and fibrosis in mice and these effects were accentuated with concomitant smoke exposure. Combined stimulation with both smoke and RSV synergistically induced cytokine (IL-1a, IL-17, IFN-c, KC, IL-13, CXCL9, RANTES, MIF and GM-CSF) and protease (MMP-2, -8, -12, -13, -16 and cathepsins E, S, W and Z) expression. In addition, RSV exposure caused marked apoptosis within the airways of infected mice, which was augmented by cigarette smoke exposure. RSV and smoke exposure also reduced protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) and protein tyrosine phosphates (PTP1B) expression and activity. This is significant as these phosphatases counter smoke-induced inflammation and protease expression. Together, these findings show for the first time that recurrent RSV infection markedly enhances inflammation, apoptosis and tissue destruction in smoke-exposed mice. Indeed, these results indicate that preventing RSV transmission and infection has the potential to significantly impact on COPD severity and progression.