Uptake pathways: the potential of Bayesian belief networks to assist the management, monitoring and evaluation of development-orientated research

The effectiveness of development assistance has come under renewed scrutiny in recent years. In an era of growing economic liberalisation, research organisations are increasingly being asked to account for the use of public funds by demonstrating achievements. However, in the natural resources (NR) research field, conventional economic assessment techniques have focused on quantifying the impact achieved rather understanding the process that delivered it. As a result, they provide limited guidance for planners and researchers charged with selecting and implementing future research. In response, “pathways” or logic models have attracted increased interest in recent years as a remedy to this shortcoming. However, as commonly applied these suffer from two key limitations in their ability to incorporate risk and assess variance from plan. The paper reports the results of a case study that used a Bayesian belief network approach to address these limitations and outlines its potential value as a tool to assist the planning, monitoring and evaluation of development-orientated research.

Housing supply and planning controls: the impact of development control processing times on housing supply in England

The National Housing and Planning Advice Unit commissioned Professor Michael Ball of Reading University to undertake empirical research into how long it was taking to obtain planning consent for major housing sites in England. The focus on sites as opposed to planning applications is important because it is sites that generate housing.

Effects of caffeic acid and bovine serum albumin in reducing the rate of development of rancidity in oil-in-water and water-in-oil emulsions

The antioxidant properties of caffeic acid and bovine serum albumin in oil-in-water and water-in-oil emulsions were studied. Caffeic acid (5 mmol/kg emulsion) showed good antioxidant properties in both 30% sunflower oil-in-water (OW) and 20% water-in-sunflower oil emulsions (WO), pH 5.4, during storage at 50 ºC. Although bovine serum albumin (BSA) (0.2%) had a slight antioxidant effect, the combination of caffeic acid and BSA showed a synergistic reduction in the rate of development of rancidity, with significant reductions in concentration of total volatiles, peroxide value (PV) and p-anisidine value (PA) for both emulsion types. The synergistic increase in stability of the OW and WO emulsions containing BSA and caffeic acid was 102.9 and 50.4 % respectively based on TOTOX values, which are calculated as 2PV + PA, with greater synergy calculated if based on formation of headspace volatiles, The OW emulsion was more susceptible to the development of headspace volatiles by oxidation than the WO emulsion, even though the degree of oxidation assessed by the TOTOX value was similar.

Precisely wrong or roughly right? An evaluation of development viability appraisal modelling

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Design/methodology/approach – Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. Findings – It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, that simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models. Evidence is found of equifinality in the outputs of a simple, aggregated model of development viability relative to more complex, disaggregated models. Originality/value – Development viability appraisal has become increasingly important in the planning system. Consequently, the theory, application and outputs from development appraisal are under intense scrutiny from a wide range of users. However, there has been very little published evaluation of viability models. This paper contributes to the limited literature in this area.