Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Flammability and thermal properties of novel semi aromatic polyamide/organoclay nanocomposite

The development of semi aromatic polyamide/organoclays nanocomposites (PANC) is reported in this communication. New polyamide (PA) was successfully synthesized through direct polycondensation reaction between bio-based diacid and aromatic diamine. PA exhibited strong UV vis absorption band at 412 nm. Its photoluminescence spectrum showed maximum band at 511 nm in the green region. The surface modification of montmorillonite was carried out through ion-exchange reaction using 1,4-bis[4-aminophenoxy]butane (APB) as a modifier. Then PANCs containing 3 and 6 wt.% of the modified montmorillonite (MMT-APB) were prepared. Flammability and thermal properties of PA and the nanocomposites were studied by microscale combustion calorimeter (MCC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). TGA results in both air and nitrogen atmospheres indicated improving in thermal properties of PANCs compared to the neat PA. According to MCC analysis, a 31.6% reduction in pHRR value has been achieved by introducing 6 wt.% of the organoclay in PA matrix.

Using upper bounds on attainable discrimination to select discrete valued features

Selection of features that will permit accurate pattern classification is a difficult task. However, if a particular data set is represented by discrete valued features, it becomes possible to determine empirically the contribution that each feature makes to the discrimination between classes. This paper extends the discrimination bound method so that both the maximum and average discrimination expected on unseen test data can be estimated. These estimation techniques are the basis of a backwards elimination algorithm that can be use to rank features in order of their discriminative power. Two problems are used to demonstrate this feature selection process: classification of the Mushroom Database, and a real-world, pregnancy related medical risk prediction task - assessment of risk of perinatal death.

A semi-alternating direction method for a 2-D fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model on an approximate irregular domain

A FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model has been used to describe the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model on an irregular domain. The model consists of a coupled Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and an ordinary differential equation, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. Secondly, we use a decoupling technique and focus on solving the Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. A novel spatially second-order accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method (SIADM) for this model on an approximate irregular domain is proposed. Thirdly, stability and convergence of the SIADM are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis and these numerical techniques are employed to simulate a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo model on both an approximate circular and an approximate irregular domain.

A fast semi-implicit difference method for a nonlinear two-sided space-fractional diffusion equation with variable diffusivity coefficients

In this paper, we derive a new nonlinear two-sided space-fractional diffusion equation with variable coefficients from the fractional Fick’s law. A semi-implicit difference method (SIDM) for this equation is proposed. The stability and convergence of the SIDM are discussed. For the implementation, we develop a fast accurate iterative method for the SIDM by decomposing the dense coefficient matrix into a combination of Toeplitz-like matrices. This fast iterative method significantly reduces the storage requirement of O(n2)O(n2) and computational cost of O(n3)O(n3) down to n and O(nlogn)O(nlogn), where n is the number of grid points. The method retains the same accuracy as the underlying SIDM solved with Gaussian elimination. Finally, some numerical results are shown to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the new method.

Matter and movement: Expression as topological continuity or a return to Butades' wall

This paper aims to address the ways in which drawing can be understood as the becoming-expressive of materials, site, and body, over time. The discussion pivots around a series of studies that replace linear or causal relationships – in history, drawing and expression – with topological movement. My approach is largely through a speculative case study. In a rereading of the familiar Butades myth, I examine how a shadow tracing can variously be taken as the first mimetic art with its origins in the urge to “capture”, and, antithetically, as the originary expressive folding of matter, site and body. The paper is divided into five sections. The first presents the Butades myth, identifying the representational problem that lies at the roots of its traditional telling. The next three sections outline a series of topologies that facilitate a discussion of the Butades myth from historical, disciplinary, and expressive perspectives. The final section aims to show the relevance of this discussion to a contemporary drawing practice, using my own drawing research as a case study. The field of inquiry is that of representational critique. The fold, an image associated with a topological geometry, replaces the relational or signifying disjuncture of representational structures, and suggests a becoming- expressive of subject and object, form and matter.

The synthesis, characterization, X-ray structure and magnetism of dinuclear-based bis[μ-(1,1,3,3-tetracyano-2-ethoxypropenido-κ2N,N′) (1,1,3,3-tetracyano-2-ethoxypropenido-κN)(2,2′-bipyridine)copper(II)] organized in alternating chains via semi-coordinating Cu–N distances

The monoanionic ligand 1,1,3,3 tetracyano-2 ethoxypropenide (tcnoet) is reported with its Cu(II)–bpy complex of formula [Cu2(µ-tcnoet)2(tcnoet)2(bpy)2]. The structure has been determined using X-ray diffraction and features an alternating chain with bridging tcnoet ligands. One ligand acts as a bidentate, dinucleating ligand with one short Cu–N and one medium Cu–N bond, whereas the other tcnoet is largely monodentate, albeit with a very weak interdimer Cu–N bond. Despite the arrangement in dinuclear units, further arranged into linear chains through the non-bridging tcnoet ligand, the compound shows no significant magnetic exchange, as deduced from magnetic susceptibility down to 4 K. Ligand-field, IR and EPR spectra in the solid state and in frozen solution are reported and are consistent with the overall structure.

Sydney's media cluster: Continuity and change in film and television

A significant media city globally , Sydney is the production and design centre for the Australian media system and a subsidiary node of larger international systems principally headquartered in Los Angeles and London. Its media cluster is undergoing transformations to improve its position internationally by increasing capabilities and ties to other Australian and international production clusters. Sydney’s media cluster is a collection of suburbs forming an “arc” along major transport corridors stretching from Macquarie Park in the north to Sydney airport in the south. As a dispersed rather than tightly bound cluster, it is defined by the functional proximity provided by automobile and telecommunication networks Sydney’s media cluster is considered here along two dimensions—that of Sydney’s place within the ecology of Australian and international media and that of its internal organization within the geographical space of metropolitan Sydney. The first examines Sydney’s media cluster at the level of the metropolitan area of Sydney within its state, national and international contexts; while the second digs below this level to explore its working out in urban space.

Safety of OPRA procedure for individuals with upper limb amputation

Surgical implantations of osseointegrated fixations for bone-anchored prosthesis are developing at an unprecedented pace worldwide while initial skepticism in the orthopedic community is slowly fading away. Clearly, this option is becoming accessible to a wide range of individuals with limb loss. [1-18] The team led by Dr Rickard Branemark has previously published a number of landmark articles focusing on the benefits and safety of the OPRA fixation mainly for individual with lower limb loss, particularly those with transfemoral amputation. [1-3, 19-32] However, similar information is lacking for those with upper limb amputation. This team is once again taking a leading role by sharing a retrospective study focusing on the implant survival, adverse events, implant stability, and bone remodelling for 18 individuals with transhumeral amputation over a 5-year post-operative period. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the safety of the procedure is accessible for the first time. In essence, the results showed an implant survival rate of 83% and 80% at 2 and 5 year follow ups, respectively. The most frequent adverse events were superficial skin infections that occurred for 28% (5) participants while the least frequent was deep bone infection that happened only once. More importantly, 38% of complications due to infections were effectively managed with nonoperative treatments (e.g., revision of skin penetration site, local cleaning, antibiotics, restriction of soft tissue mobility). Implant stability and bone remodelling were satisfactory. Clearly, this study provided better understanding of the safety of the OPRA surgical and rehabilitation procedure for individuals with upper limb amputation while establishing standards and benchmark data for future studies. However, strong evidences of the benefits are yet to be demonstrated. However, increase in health related quality of life and functional outcomes (e.g., range of movement) are likely. Altogether, the team of authors are providing further evidence that bone-anchored attachment is definitely a promising alternative to socket prostheses.

Semi-automated annotation of environmental acoustic recordings

Environmental sensors collect massive amounts of audio data. This thesis investigates computational methods to support human analysts in identifying faunal vocalisations from that audio. A series of experiments was conducted to trial the effectiveness of novel user interfaces. This research examines the rapid scanning of spectrograms, decision support tools for users, and cleaning methods for folksonomies. Together, these investigations demonstrate that providing computational support to human analysts increases their efficiency and accuracy; this allows bioacoustics projects to efficiently utilise their valuable human analysts.

Continuity and change in family engagement in home learning activities across the early years

This research utilised data from The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children and explored continuity and change in parental engagement in home learning activities with young children. The findings indicated a decrease over time in parental engagement with children, from age to 2-3 years to 6-7 years. Rate of decrease impacted negatively on learning outcomes for language and literacy, and mathematical thinking, in the early years of school, when children were aged 6-7 years. Shared reading with children and interactions around everyday home activities and play, in which children and parents participate together, impact on children's later development.

The impact of snares on the continuity of adolescent-onset antisocial behaviour: A test of Moffitt's developmental taxonomy

Moffitt’s dual typology of ‘life-course persistent’ and ‘adolescence limited’ offending has received extensive empirical attention, but the extent to which the antisocial behaviour of adolescence limited offenders is constrained to adolescence is relatively under-examined.Using data from the Australian Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its Outcomes, we explore Moffitt’s concept of snares, or those factors that may lead to an adolescent persisting in antisocial behaviour such as drug addiction, educational failure, and contact with the justice system. The Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its Outcomes is a longitudinal study of mother–child dyads from the pre-natal stage to 21 years of age. Findings show that one-third of individuals identified as having an adolescent onset of antisocial behaviour persisted with this antisocial behaviour as young adults. This continuity can, in part, be explained by snares and the research suggests that reducing exposure to snares may lead to less antisocial behaviour in adulthood.

Identifying vertebral end plate lesions (schmorl's nodes) using a semi-automatic method

INTRODUCTION There is a large range in the reported prevalence of end plate lesions (EPLs), sometimes referred to as Schmorl's nodes in the general population (3.8-76%). One possible reason for this large range is the differences in definitions used by authors. Previous research has suggested that EPLs may potentially be a primary disturbance of growth plates that leads to the onset of scoliosis. The aim of this study was to develop a technique to measure the size, prevalence and location of EPLs on Computed Tomography (CT) images of scoliosis patients in a consistent manner. METHODS A detection algorithm was developed and applied to measure EPLs for five adolescent females with idiopathic scoliosis (average age 15.1 years, average major Cobb 60°). In this algorithm, the EPL definition was based on the lesion depth, the distance from the edge of the vertebral body and the gradient of the lesion edge. Existing low-dose, CT scans of the patients' spines were segmented semi-automatically to extract 3D vertebral endplate morphology. Manual sectioning of any attachments between posterior elements of adjacent vertebrae and, if necessary, endplates was carried out before the automatic algorithm was used to determine the presence and position of EPLs. RESULTS EPLs were identified in 15 of the 170 (8.8%) endplates analysed with an average depth of 3.1mm. 73% of the EPLs were seen in the lumbar spines (11/15). A sensitivity study demonstrated that the algorithm was most sensitive to changes in the minimum gradient required at the lesion edge. CONCLUSION An imaging analysis technique for consistent measurement of the prevalence, location and size of EPLs on CT images has been developed. Although the technique was tested on scoliosis patients, it can be used to analyse other populations without observer errors in EPL definitions.

Profiles of illicit drug use during annual key holiday and control periods in Australia: Wastewater analysis in an urban, a semi-rural and a vacation area

AIMS: To examine changes in illicit drug consumption between peak holiday season (23 December-3 January) in Australia and a control period two months later in a coastal urban area, an inland semi-rural area and an island populated predominantly by vacationers during holidays. DESIGN: Analysis of representative daily composite wastewater samples collected from the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area. SETTING: Three wastewater treatment plants. PARTICIPANTS: Wastewater treatment plants serviced approximately 350, 000 persons in the urban area, 120,000 in the semi-rural area and 1100-2400 on the island. MEASUREMENTS: Drug residues were analysed using liquid chromatography coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer. Per capita drug consumption was estimated. Changes in drug use were quantified using Hedges' g. FINDINGS: During the holidays, cannabis consumption in the semi-rural area declined (g = -2.8) as did methamphetamine (-0.8), whereas cocaine (+1.5) and ecstasy (+1.6) use increased. In the urban area, consumption of all drugs increased during holidays (cannabis +1.6, cocaine +1.2, ecstasy +0.8 and methamphetamine +0.3). In the vacation area, methamphetamine (+0.7), ecstasy (+0.7) and cocaine (+1.1) use increased, but cannabis (-0.5) use decreased during holiday periods. CONCLUSIONS: While the peak holiday season in Australia is perceived as a period of increased drug use, this is not uniform across all drugs and areas. Substantial declines in drug use in the semi-rural area contrasted with substantial increases in urban and vacation areas. Per capita drug consumption in the vacation area was equivalent to that in the urban area, implying that these locations merit particular attention for drug use monitoring and harm minimisation measures.