Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

Efficacy of a diagnostic strategy for patients with chest pain and no ST-segment elevation in the emergency room

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a systematic model of care for patients with chest pain and no ST segment elevation in the emergency room. METHODS: From 1003 patients submitted to an algorithm diagnostic investigation by probability of acute ischemic syndrome. We analyzed 600 ones with no elevation of ST segment, then enrolled to diagnostic routes of median (route 2) and low probability (route 3) to ischemic syndrome. RESULTS: In route 2 we found 17% acute myocardial infarction and 43% unstable angina, whereas in route 3 the rates were 2% and 7%, respectively. Patients with normal/non--specific ECG had 6% probability of AMI whereas in those with negative first CKMB it was 7%; the association of the 2 data only reduced it to 4%. In patients in route 2 the diagnosis of AMI could only be ruled out with serial CKMB measurement up to 9 hours, while in route 3 it could be done in up to 3 hours. Thus, sensitivity and negative predictive value of admission CKMB for AMI were 52% and 93%, respectively. About one-half of patients with unstable angina did not disclose objective ischemic changes on admission. CONCLUSION: The use of a systematic model of care in patients with chest pain offers the opportunity of hindering inappropriate release of patients with ACI and reduces unnecessary admissions. However some patients even with normal ECG should not be released based on a negative first CKMB. Serial measurement of CKMB up to 9 hours is necessary in patients with medium probability of AMI.

Consequences of the Prolonged Waiting Time for Patients Candidates for Heart Surgery

OBJECTIVE - To assess mortality and the psychological repercussions of the prolonged waiting time for candidates for heart surgery. METHODS - From July 1999 to May 2000, using a standardized questionnaire, we carried out standardized interviews and semi-structured psychological interviews with 484 patients with coronary heart disease, 121 patients with valvular heart diseases, and 100 patients with congenital heart diseases. RESULTS - The coefficients of mortality (deaths per 100 patients/year) were as follows: patients with coronary heart disease, 5.6; patients with valvular heart diseases, 12.8; and patients with congenital heart diseases, 3.1 (p<0.0001). The survival curve was lower in patients with valvular heart diseases than in patients with coronary heart disease and congenital heart diseases (p<0.001). The accumulated probability of not undergoing surgery was higher in patients with valvular heart diseases than in the other patients (p<0.001), and, among the patients with valvular heart diseases, this probability was higher in females than in males (p<0.01). Several patients experienced intense anxiety and attributed their adaptive problems in the scope of love, professional, and social lives, to not undergoing surgery. CONCLUSION - Mortality was high, and even higher among the patients with valvular heart diseases, with negative psychological and social repercussions.

New auxiliary indicators for the differential diagnosis of functional cardiorespiratory limitation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure

OBJECTIVE: To differentiate the nature of functional cardiorespiratory limitations during exercise in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or congestive heart failure (CHF) and to determine indicators that may help their classifications. METHODS: The study comprised 40 patients: 23 with COPD and 17 with CHF. All individuals underwent maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing on a treadmill. RESULTS: The values of peak gas exchange ratio (R peak), peak carbon dioxide production (VCO2 peak), and peak oxygen ventilatory equivalent (V E O2 peak) were higher in the patients with CHF than in those with COPD, and, therefore, those were the variables that characterized the differences between the groups. For group classification, the differentiating functions with the R peak, VCO2 peak (L/min), and V E O2 peak variables were used as follows: group COPD: - 44.886 + 78.832 x R peak + 5.442 x VCO2 peak + 0.336 x V E O2 peak; group CHF: - 69.251 + 89.740 x R peak + 8.461 x VCO2 peak + 0.574 x V E O2 peak. The differentiating function, whose result is greater, correctly classifies the patient's group as 90%. CONCLUSION: The R peak, VCO2 peak, and V E O2 peak values may be used to identify the cause of the functional cardiorespiratory limitations in patients with COPD and CHF.

Efficient bidding with externalities

We implement a family of efficient proposals to share benefits generated in environments with externalities. These proposals extend the Shapley value to games with externalities and are parametrized through the method by which the externalities are averaged. We construct two slightly different mechanisms: one for environments with negative externalities and the other for positive externalities. We show that the subgame perfect equilibrium outcomes of these mechanisms coincide with the sharing proposals.

Normal forms for rational difference equations with applications to the global periodicity problem

We propose a classification and derive the associated normal forms for rational difference equations with complex coefficients. As an application, we study the global periodicity problem for second order rational difference equations with complex coefficients. We find new necessary conditions as well as some new examples of globally periodic equations.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Nondictatorial Arrovian Social Welfare Functions: An Integer Programming Approach

In the line opened by Kalai and Muller (1997), we explore new conditions on prefernce domains which make it possible to avoid Arrow's impossibility result. In our main theorem, we provide a complete characterization of the domains admitting nondictorial Arrovian social welfare functions with ties (i.e. including indifference in the range) by introducing a notion of strict decomposability. In the proof, we use integer programming tools, following an approach first applied to social choice theory by Sethuraman, Teo and Vohra ((2003), (2006)). In order to obtain a representation of Arrovian social welfare functions whose range can include indifference, we generalize Sethuraman et al.'s work and specify integer programs in which variables are allowed to assume values in the set {0, 1/2, 1}: indeed, we show that, there exists a one-to-one correspondence between solutions of an integer program defined on this set and the set of all Arrovian social welfare functions - without restrictions on the range.

Withholding antimalarials in febrile children who have a negative result for a rapid diagnostic test.

BACKGROUND: The availability of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (RDTm) allows accurate diagnosis at all levels of health facilities. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the safety of withholding antimalarials in febrile children who have a negative test result. METHODS: We conducted a prospective 2-arm longitudinal study in areas of Tanzania that are moderately and highly endemic for malaria. Children with a history of fever were managed routinely by resident clinicians of 2 health facilities, except that no antimalarials were prescribed if the RDTm result was negative. Children were followed up at home on day 7. The main outcome was the occurrence of complications in children with negative RDTm results; children with positive RDTm results were followed up for the same outcomes for indirect comparison. RESULTS: One thousand children (median age, 24 months) were recruited. Six hundred three children (60%) had a negative RDTm result. Five hundred seventy-three (97%) of these children were cured on day 7. Forty-nine (8%) of the children with negative RDTm results spontaneously visited the dispensary before day 7, compared with 10 (3%) of the children with positive RDTm results. All children who had negative initial results had negative results again when they were tested either at spontaneous attendance or on day 7 because they were not cured clinically, except for 3 who gave positive results on days 2, 4, and 7 respectively but who did not experience any complication. Four children who had negative initial results were admitted to the hospital subsequently, all with negative results for malaria tests upon admission. Two of them died, of causes other than malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Not giving antimalarial drugs in febrile children who had a negative RDTm result was safe, even in an area highly endemic for malaria. Our study provides evidence for treatment recommendations based on parasitological diagnosis in children <5 years old.

Accuracy of sentinel lymph node dissection for melanoma staging in the presence of a collision tumour with a lymphoproliferative disease.

Sentinel lymph node dissection (SLND) identifies melanoma patients with metastatic disease who would benefit from radical lymph node dissection (RLND). Rarely, patients with melanoma have an underlying lymphoproliferative disease, and melanoma metastases might develop as collision tumours in the sentinel lymph node (SLN). The aim of this study was to measure the incidence and examine the effect of collision tumours on the accuracy of SLND and on the validity of staging in this setting. Between 1998 and 2012, 750 consecutive SLNDs were performed in melanoma patients using the triple technique (lymphoscintigraphy, gamma probe and blue dye). The validity of SLND in collision tumours was analysed. False negativity was reflected by the disease-free survival. The literature was reviewed on collision tumours in melanoma. Collision tumours of melanoma and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) were found in two SLN and in one RLND (0.4%). Subsequent RLNDs of SLND-positive cases were negative for melanoma. The patient with negative SLND developed relapse after 28 months with an inguinal lymph node metastasis of melanoma; RLND showed collision tumours. The literature review identified 12 cases of collision tumours. CLL was associated with increased melanoma incidence and reduced overall survival. This is, to our knowledge, the first assessment of the clinical value of SLND when collision tumours of melanoma and CLL are found. In this small series of three patients with both malignancies present in the same lymph node basin, lymphocytic infiltration of the CLL did not alter radioisotope uptake into the SLN. No false-negative result was observed. Our data suggest the validity of SLND in collision tumours, but given the rarity of the problem, further studies are necessary to confirm this reliability.

Factors associated with clinical leptospirosis: a population-based case-control study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

BACKGROUND: In Western countries, leptospirosis is uncommon and mainly occurs in farmers and individuals indulging in water-related activities. In tropical countries, leptospirosis can be up to 1000 times more frequent and risk factors for this often severe disease may differ. METHODS: We conducted a one-year population-based matched case-control study to investigate the frequency and associated factors of leptospirosis in the entire population of Seychelles. RESULTS: A total of 75 patients had definite acute leptospirosis based on microagglutination test (MAT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay (incidence: 101 per 100,000 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 79-126). Among the controls, MAT was positive in 37% (past infection) and PCR assay in 9% (subclinical infection) of men aged 25-64 with manual occupation. Comparing cases and controls with negative MAT and PCR, leptospirosis was associated positively with walking barefoot around the home, washing in streams, gardening, activities in forests, alcohol consumption, rainfall, wet soil around the home, refuse around the home, rats visible around the home during day time, cats in the home, skin wounds and inversely with indoor occupation. The considered factors accounted for as much as 57% of the variance in predicting the disease. CONCLUSION: These data indicate a high incidence of leptospirosis in Seychelles. This suggests that leptospires are likely to be ubiquitous and that effective leptospirosis control in tropical countries needs a multifactorial approach including major behaviour change by large segments of the general public.

Diagnostic accuracy of free and total metanephrines in plasma and fractionated metanephrines in urine of patients with pheochromocytoma.

BACKGROUND: Plasma free and urinary metanephrines are recognized biomarkers for the assessment of pheochromocytoma. Plasma total metanephrines with a long half-life may represent another useful biomarker. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performances of plasma total metanephrines alone or combined with free metanephrines and fractionated 24-h urinary metanephrines. METHODS: A retrospective, case-control diagnostic test study was conducted between 1999 and 2007 in two university hospitals in Switzerland and two institutions in France. The patients included 46 cases with histologically proven pheochromocytoma, and 181 controls suspected of tumor with negative investigations and 3-year follow-up. None had renal dysfunction. Sensitivity and specificity were compared after expressing each measurement result as a ratio over its upper reference limit, adding the ratios of normetanephrine and metanephrine, and defining cut-off values of 1 or 2 for this sum. RESULTS: Applying a cut-off value of 1, plasma free and total metanephrines and urinary fractionated metanephrines had similar sensitivities of 96% (95% confidence interval, 86-99%), 95% (85-99%), and 95% (84-99%) along with similar specificities of 89% (83-94%), 91% (84-95%), and 86% (80-91%). A cut-off of 2 for the sum of ratios over reference limit improves the specificity, and it can be used for a confirmation test based on another biomarker taken among the three biomarkers. CONCLUSION: All three metanephrine-based tests perform equivalently for diagnosing pheochromocytoma in the absence of renal insufficiency, and can be conveniently associated two by two for confirming/excluding tumor.

Rapid Diagnostic Test-Based Management of Malaria: An Effectiveness Study in Papua New Guinean Infants With Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Background. In malaria-endemic areas it is recommended that febrile children be tested for malaria by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or blood slide (BS) and receive effective malaria treatment only if results are positive. However, RDTs are known to perform less well for Plasmodium vivax. We evaluated the safety of withholding antimalarial drugs from young Papua New Guinean children with negative RDT results in areas with high levels of both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. Methods. longitudinal prospective study of children aged 3-27 months visiting outpatient clinics for fever. RDT was administered at first visit. RDT and microscopy were performed if children returned because of persistent symptoms. Outcomes were rates of reattendance and occurrence of severe illnesses. Results. Of 5670 febrile episodes, 3942 (70%) involved a negative RDT result. In 133 cases (3.4%), the children reattended the clinic within 7 days for fever, of whom 29 (0.7%) were parasitemic by RDT or microscopy. Of children who reattended, 24 (0.7%) presented with a severe illness: 2 had lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) with low-density P. vivax on BS; 2 received a diagnosis of P. vivax malaria on the basis of RDT but BSs were negative; 16 had LRTIs; 3 had alternative diagnoses. Of these 24, 22 were cured at day 28. Two children died of illnesses other than malaria and were RDT and BS negative at the initial and subsequent visits. Conclusion. Treatment for malaria based on RDT results is safe and feasible even in infants living in areas with moderate to high endemicity for both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections.

Prevalence and Clinical Outcomes for Patients With ALK-Positive Resected Stage I to III Adenocarcinoma: Results From the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape Project.

PURPOSE: The prevalence of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene fusion (ALK positivity) in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) varies by population examined and detection method used. The Lungscape ALK project was designed to address the prevalence and prognostic impact of ALK positivity in resected lung adenocarcinoma in a primarily European population. METHODS: Analysis of ALK status was performed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) in tissue sections of 1,281 patients with adenocarcinoma in the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape iBiobank. Positive patients were matched with negative patients in a 1:2 ratio, both for IHC and for FISH testing. Testing was performed in 16 participating centers, using the same protocol after passing external quality assessment. RESULTS: Positive ALK IHC staining was present in 80 patients (prevalence of 6.2%; 95% CI, 4.9% to 7.6%). Of these, 28 patients were ALK FISH positive, corresponding to a lower bound for the prevalence of FISH positivity of 2.2%. FISH specificity was 100%, and FISH sensitivity was 35.0% (95% CI, 24.7% to 46.5%), with a sensitivity value of 81.3% (95% CI, 63.6% to 92.8%) for IHC 2+/3+ patients. The hazard of death for FISH-positive patients was lower than for IHC-negative patients (P = .022). Multivariable models, adjusted for patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics, and matched cohort analysis confirmed that ALK FISH positivity is a predictor for better overall survival (OS). CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of surgically resected lung adenocarcinomas, the prevalence of ALK positivity was 6.2% using IHC and at least 2.2% using FISH. A screening strategy based on IHC or H-score could be envisaged. ALK positivity (by either IHC or FISH) was related to better OS.

β-Glucan Antigenemia Anticipates Diagnosis of Blood Culture-Negative Intraabdominal Candidiasis.

Rationale: Life-threatening intraabdominal candidiasis (IAC) occurs in 30 to 40% of high-risk surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Although early IAC diagnosis is crucial, blood cultures are negative, and the role of Candida score/colonization indexes is not established. Objectives: The aim of this prospective Fungal Infection Network of Switzerland (FUNGINOS) cohort study was to assess accuracy of 1,3-β-d-glucan (BG) antigenemia for diagnosis of IAC. Methods: Four hundred thirty-four consecutive adults with abdominal surgery or acute pancreatitis and ICU stay 72 hours or longer were screened: 89 (20.5%) at high risk for IAC were studied (68 recurrent gastrointestinal tract perforation, 21 acute necrotizing pancreatitis). Diagnostic accuracy of serum BG (Fungitell), Candida score, and colonization indexes was compared. Measurements and Main Results: Fifty-eight of 89 (65%) patients were colonized by Candida; 29 of 89 (33%) presented IAC (27 of 29 with negative blood cultures). Nine hundred twenty-one sera were analyzed (9/patient): median BG was 253 pg/ml (46-9,557) in IAC versus 99 pg/ml (8-440) in colonization (P < 0.01). Sensitivity and specificity of two consecutive BG measurements greater than or equal to 80 pg/ml were 65 and 78%, respectively. In recurrent gastrointestinal tract perforation it was 75 and 77% versus 90 and 38% (Candida score ≥ 3), 79 and 34% (colonization index ≥ 0.5), and 54 and 63% (corrected colonization index ≥ 0.4), respectively. BG positivity anticipated IAC diagnosis (5 d) and antifungal therapy (6 d). Severe sepsis/septic shock and death occurred in 10 of 11 (91%) and 4 of 11 (36%) patients with BG 400 pg/ml or more versus 5 of 18 (28%, P = 0.002) and 1 of 18 (6%, P = 0.05) with BG measurement less than 400 pg/ml. β-Glucan decreased in IAC responding to therapy and increased in nonresponse. Conclusions: BG antigenemia is superior to Candida score and colonization indexes and anticipates diagnosis of blood culture-negative IAC. This proof-of-concept observation in strictly selected high-risk surgical ICU patients deserves investigation of BG-driven preemptive therapy.