Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Summertime total ozone variations over middle and polar latitudes

The statistical relationship between springtime and summertime ozone over middle and polar latitudes is analyzed using zonally averaged total ozone data. Shortterm variations in springtime midlatitude ozone demonstrate only a modest correlation with springtime polar ozone variations. However by early summer, ozone variations throughout the extratropics are highly correlated. Analysis of correlation functions indicates that springtime midlatitude ozone, not polar ozone, is the best predictor for summertime polar ozone. Long-term total ozone trends at middle and high latitudes are also different for spring and nearly identical for summer. About 39% of the observed southern midlatitude ozone decline in December can be attributed to the polar ozone depletion up to November. In the Northern Hemisphere, the corresponding contribution is about 15%, but the error bars are too large to make an accurate estimate.

Ozone and climate: a review of interconnections

Stratospheric ozone has been depleted over the last 25 years following anthropogenic emissions of a number of chlorine- and bromine-containing compounds (ozone-depleting substances, ODSs), which are now regulated under the Montreal Protocol. The Protocol has been effective in controlling the net growth of these compounds in the atmosphere. As chlorine and bromine slowly decrease in the future, ozone levels are expected to increase in the coming decades, although the evolution will also depend on the changing climate system.

Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies

Temporal autocorrelations of monthly mean total ozone anomalies over the 35–60°S and 35–60°N latitude bands reveal that anomalies established in the wintertime midlatitude ozone buildup persist (with photochemical decay) until the end of the following autumn, and then are rapidly erased once the next winter's buildup begins. The photochemical decay rate is found to be identical between the two hemispheres. High predictability of ozone through late summer exists based on the late-spring values. In the northern hemisphere, extending the 1979–2001 springtime ozone trend to other months through regression based on the seasonal persistence of anomalies captures the seasonality of the ozone trends remarkably well. In the southern hemisphere, the springtime trend only accounts for part of the summertime trends. There is a strong correlation between the ozone anomalies in northern hemisphere spring and those in the subsequent southern hemisphere spring, but not the converse.

The fluorescence detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a hybrid detector for ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It combines a surface array to measure secondary particles at ground level together with a fluorescence detector to measure the development of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The fluorescence detector comprises 24 large telescopes specialized for measuring the nitrogen fluorescence caused by charged particles of cosmic ray air showers. In this paper we describe the components of the fluorescence detector including its optical system, the design of the camera, the electronics, and the systems for relative and absolute calibration. We also discuss the operation and the monitoring of the detector. Finally, we evaluate the detector performance and precision of shower reconstructions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Comparação da carga postural dos operadores de duas ilhas de atendimento de uma loja de departamento

O Objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a carga postural dos operadores de duas ilhas de atendimento de uma rede de lojas de departamento de Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul. A ilha velha exige trabalho de pé e manuseio de peso na operação de ensacolamento de produto e desmagnetização da sacola. A ilha nova foi desenhada para permitir alternância de postura e reduzir o manuseio de peso no ensacolamento, tendo eliminado a operação de desmagnetização da sacola. Com base em observações diretas e indiretas (filmagens gravadas em VHS) e num instrumento desenvolvido para a avaliação das posturas, foi feita análise postural de doze operadores de uma loja. Verificou-se que a ilha nova eliminou os esforços mais importantes que existiam na ilha velha: o esforço estático nos membros inferiores e o movimento de flexão e rotação do tronco associado ao manuseio de sacolas. Algumas operações que ainda geravam risco de desenvolvimento de distúrbios músculo-esqueléticos na ilha nova (rotação e flexão de tronco e flexão e abdução de membros superiores para manipulação de embalagens e colocação de cabides) foram identificados no estudo e serviram de embasamento para melhorias no protótipo final, as quais já foram implantadas e estão, em uma segunda fase do projeto, sendo testadas.

Avaliação ergonômica e melhoria das condições de trabalho e do processo produtivo de nutrição parenteral total em farmácias de manipulação : um estudo de caso

A produção farmacêutica de preparações estéreis, em especial de Nutrição Parenteral Total (NTP), atinge atualmente graus de importância devido ao grande volume de produção em escala de bancada. Tais características produtivas induzem os operadores a assumirem posturas desfavoráveis do ponto de vista músculo-esquelético, associadas a uma repetitividade importante. Desta forma, este estudo aborda, através de um estudo de caso, a melhoria das condições de trabalho e o resprojeto de uma linha de produção de NPT. Para tal, foi empregada uma metodologia abrangente do ponto de vista de análise postural para melhorar o processo produtivo. esta permitiu a comparação de indicadores anteriores e posteriores à transformação do processo, assegurando a visualização das boas práticas realizadas durante o estudo de melhorias. Como resultados principais, houve uma sensível diminuição das queixas de desconforto e dor de origem postural. Porém, no que concerne à repetitividade são necessários ainda ajustes relacionados com um melhor dimensionamento do processo.

Formulação de uma politica de desenvolvimento regional integrado: um estudo de caso do corredor centroleste

Esta dissertação busca definir qual o propósito que Uniu alguns estados brasileiros em torno da Política de Desenvolvimento do Corredor de Transportes Centroleste. Para tanto, busca definir e identificar quais os atores envolvidos, os respectivos interesses SOCIaIS, políticos e econômicos e o ambiente histórico e político prevalecente. o caso do Corredor Centroleste é o pano de fundo de uma política de Desenvolvimento Regional Integrado, fornecendo bases para análise da formulação de políticas públicas, preocupando-se em configurar sua existência, êxito e continuidade. Por fim, o desenho da matriz de relações interorganizacionais, enseja uma demonstração dos tipos de relacionamentos verificados no estudo de caso, afirmando-a como instrumento de análise na formulação de políticas públicas.

Visitantes florais de Lagerstroemia speciosa Pers: (Lythraceae)

Studies were carried out with Lagerstroemia speciosa Pers. on floral reproductive systems, diversity and constancy of visiting insects at different hours of day, the behaviour of these insects at the flowers and the influence of these environmental factors in relation to their visits. The fenology, anthesis and others particularity of this vegetal species was studied. A great diversity of insects was verified visiting the flowers with the predominance of bees. The most frequent and constant species encountered were: Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Lepeletier, 1836) (40,2%), Tetragonisca angustula (Latreille, 1811) (16,9%), Apis mellifera Linnaeus, 1758 (11,8%), Plebeia droryana (Friese, 1900) (9,1 %) e Exomalopsis fulvofasciata (Smith, 1879) (8,5%). The blossoms possessis features of melittophily syndrome and diurnal anthesis. The environmental factors influence the insects foraging activity, mainly temperature, light, time of day, humidity and wind speed. The effective pollinators were the large insects like Bombus morio (Swederus, 1787), Bombus atratus (Franklin, 1913), Centris tarsata (Smith, 1874), Centris flavifrons Fabricius, 1775, Xylocopa suspecta Camargo & Moure, 1988, Xylocopa frontalis (Olivier, 1789) and Eulaema nigrita Lepeletier, 1841.

Visitantes florais de Erythrina speciosa Andr. (Leguminosae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Correlation of Atopobium vaginae Amount With Bacterial Vaginosis Markers

Objective. The purpose of this study was to test the correlation of the amount of Atopobium vaginae with the most commonly used markers for bacterial vaginosis (BV).Materials and Methods. We enrolled 103 nonpregnant and premenopausal women that were positive for BV by Amsel criteria and with a Nugent score higher than 3. All women were negative for yeast, Chlamydia trachomatis, Trichomonas vaginalis, and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. A. vaginae concentration was determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction from samples of vaginal rinsings with 2 mL of sterile saline.Results. There was no difference in the median values of A. vaginae concentration when comparing samples with presence or absence of each individual Amsel criterion. In the case of a higher pH cutoff value of 4.9, greater amounts of this microorganism (p = .02) were found. In addition, correlation tests showed that A. vaginae concentration is positively correlated with pH (p < .001) and with Nugent scores (p = .003).Conclusions. The quantification of A. vaginae is useful for identification of the most severe cases of BV.

Entomofauna visitante de Belamcanda chinensis (L.) DC (Iridaceae) durante o período de floração

A study of the reproductive biology of B. chinensis (L.) DC. (Iridaceae) was realized comprising floral biology and breeding systems. The floral biology studies included analyses of nectar production, occurence of osmophores, corolla pigments, ultraviolet reflexion and absortion patterns, viability of pollen, pollinators and flower visitors. The breeding systems were studied taking into account the results of manual pollinators tests. B. chinensis is self-compatible bul cross-pollination is more frequent. The effective pollinators are Plebeia droryana (Friese, 1906) (45,7%), Trigona spinipes (Fabricius, 1793) (27,3%), Tetragonisca angustula (Latreille, 1811) (9,3%). Others insects visitors are considered nectar and pollen thieves. The flowering begins generally in January and February. The complete reproductive cicle, as here considered, begining with floral bud production ending with development of mature fruits, lasts January to June. Seed dispersion is ornitocoric.

Developing a system for down-hole seismic testing together with the CPTU

This paper presents a system for performing down-hole seismic test together with the piezocone test in order to determine the shear wave velocity (Vs) and for calculating the maximum shear modulus (Go); a basic parameter for analyzing the dynamic soil behavior and a reference value of the soil stiffness. The system components are described and tests results for checking the geophone response are also presented, both before and after installation into the probe. The system was used in down-hole tests carried out at three experimental research sites located in the interior of Sao Paulo State, Brazil, where in situ seismic test results are available. The Vs values measured in down-hole tests carried out with this system were consistent with those determined in cross-hole tests and with a commercial seismic piezocone, which enabled to validate the developed system.