Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

A COMPARISON OF COUNTY HOSPITAL UTILIZATION BEFORE AND AFTER INTERVENTION BY THE HOSPITAL'S ALCOHOLISM SERVICES PROGRAM

This study examines the reduction in hospital utilization of 393 public hospital patients who were referred to the hospital's alcoholism screening program for intervention. The 393 patients were the total patient population of the alcoholism screening program for the period of September through December, 1982. Medical records of these patients were investigated to assess the total number of hospital days six months before and six months after intervention. The findings support the hypothesis of decreased utilization. The total number of hospital days for 393 patients before intervention of the alcoholism program was 3,458, with a mean length of stay of 8.80 days. The total number of hospital days after intervention was 458 days, with a mean length of stay of 6.50 days. The average individual difference (decrease) was 7.63 days for one year. From a total of 393 patients counseled by the alcoholism program, 106 (27%) went to treatment for their alcoholism. Other aims were to examine the referral sources (physicians, nurses, social workers and the MAST); study the impact of familial history of alcoholism on referrals, and explore the MAST scores of patients successfully referred. Implications of the study are that it would benefit the public hospital, with their disproportionate numbers of alcoholics, to intervene in the behavioral patterns of alcoholism. Such intervention would be a factor in reducing the overall hospitalization of the alcoholic. ^

Battlefield of Spotsylvania Court House, Virginia and vicinity, 1864 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map: Map of the battle field of Spottsylvania C.H. : showing the field of operations of the Army of the Potomac commanded by Maj. Gen. George G. Meade U.S.A., from May 8th to 21st, 1865 [i.e. 1864], surveyed under the orders of Bvt. Col. J.C. Duane, Major of Engineers, Chief Engineer, Army of the Potomac, by Bvt. Maj. C.W. Howell, 1st Lieut. of Engineers ; assisted by Messrs. L.C. Oswell, L. Bell, and R.B. Talfor ; J. Bien, lithographer, New York. It was published ca. 1865. Scale [1:15,840]. Covers area surrounding Spotsylvania and Spotsylvania Battlefield, Virginia. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Virginia State Plane North Coordinate System (in Meters) (Fipszone 4501). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, dwellings with names of inhabitants, vegetation, Union and Confederate troop lines and defenses, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes note. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps of the Civil War from the Harvard Map Collection. Many items from this selection are from a collection of maps deposited by the Military Order of the Loyal Legion of the United States Commandery of the State of Massachusetts (MOLLUS) in the Harvard Map Collection in 1938. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features, in particular showing places of military importance. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Washington, D.C. and vicinity, 1862 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Topographical map of the original District of Columbia and environs showing the fortifications around the city of Washington, by E.G. Arnold C.E. It was published by G. Woolworth Colton in 1862. Scale [ca. 1:31,680]. Covers also adjacent portions of Virginia and Maryland. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Maryland State Plane Coordinate System Meters NAD83 (Fipszone 1900). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads, bridges, canals, drainage, cities and towns, forts, selected public buildings and places of interest, hospitals, schools, Washington, D.C. school districts, selected private residences with names of landowners, and more. Relief is shown by hachures. Includes text and population tables. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Jefferson County, Kentucky, 1910 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic, topographic paper map entitled: Topography of Jefferson County, Kentucky : from U.S. Geological Survey topographic atlas sheets surveyed in 1904-1910, U.S. Geological Survey ; in cooperation with Kentucky Geological Survey, C. J. Norwood, director. It was published by U.S. Geological Survey in 1912. Scale 1:62,500. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Kentucky North State Plane NAD 1983 coordinate system (in Feet) (Fipszone 1601). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This is a typical topographic map portraying both natural and manmade features. It shows and names works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. It also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 20 feet and spot heights. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Top left: Res. of Horace N. Johnson, Sec. 29, Dexter Tp. Mich. Top right: Res. of John Costell, Dexter, Mich. Bottom: St. Joseph's Catholic Church, Dexter, Michigan

Dexter, Mich. residences and church. Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Map of Augusta Township. Town four south. Range seven east [plat]

Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Top: Res. of Asa M. Darling, Sec. 12, Augusta Tp. Mich. Bottom: Res. of C.C. Harmon, Sec 18, Augusta Tp. Mich.

Augusta Township (Mich.) residences. Insets: Built 1849. Hop House. Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Top left: Paint Creek Cheese Factory, H.W. Smith, proprietor, Sec. 3, Augusta Tp. Mich. Top right: Res. of Hiram P. Thompson, Sec. 19, Augusta Tp. Mich.; Res. of Webster Childs, Sec. 15, Augusta Tp. Mich.

Augusta Township (Mich.) residences and businesses. Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Top left: Res. of Aaron Childs, Sec. 4, Augusta Tp., Mich. Top right: Res. of G. Muir, Sec. 9, Augusta Tp. Mich. Bottom: Res. of Robert Campbell, Sec. 4, Augusta Tp. Mich.

Augusta Township (Mich.) residences. Inset: Sheep barn & young orchard of Robt Campbell. Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Augusta Township (Mich.) residences and business, ca. 1874

Left to right: Res. of Addison Osborn, Sec. 32, Augusta Tp. Mich.; Res. of Hiram McCarty, Sec. 9, Augusta Tp. Mich.; Res. & saw mill of Geo. Moffit, Sec. 28, Augusta Tp. Mich.; Res. of Mrs. W.M. McGraw, Stony Creek P.O., Augusta Tp. Mich.; Res. of J.B. Olcott, Sec. 7, Augusta Tp. Mich.; Res. of Peter Dansingburg, Sec. 18, Augusta Tp. Mich. Publication information: Chicago, Ill. : Everts & Stewart, 1874.

Drinking-driving attitudes: a survey of Fairfax County, 1971.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Analysis of Madison County vehicle data to evaluate the effect of Autocheck program on vehicle accident rates. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.