Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Freeway Travel Time Estimation and Prediction Using Dynamic Neural Networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.

Improved Real-time State-of-Charge Estimation of LiFePO4 Battery Based on a Novel Thermoelectric Model

Li-ion batteries have been widely used in electric vehicles, and battery internal state estimation plays an important role in the battery management system. However, it is technically challenging, in particular, for the estimation of the battery internal temperature and state-ofcharge (SOC), which are two key state variables affecting the battery performance. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for realtime simultaneous estimation of these two internal states, thus leading to a significantly improved battery model for realtime SOC estimation. To achieve this, a simplified battery thermoelectric model is firstly built, which couples a thermal submodel and an electrical submodel. The interactions between the battery thermal and electrical behaviours are captured, thus offering a comprehensive description of the battery thermal and electrical behaviour. To achieve more accurate internal state estimations, the model is trained by the simulation error minimization method, and model parameters are optimized by a hybrid optimization method combining a meta-heuristic algorithm and the least square approach. Further, timevarying model parameters under different heat dissipation conditions are considered, and a joint extended Kalman filter is used to simultaneously estimate both the battery internal states and time-varying model parameters in realtime. Experimental results based on the testing data of LiFePO4 batteries confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

Analyzing the n→π* Electronic Transition of Formaldehyde in Water. A Sequential Monte Carlo/Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory

The n→π* absorption transition of formaldehyde in water is analyzed using combined and sequential classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and quantum mechanics (QM) calculations. MC simulations generate the liquid solute-solvent structures for subsequent QM calculations. Using time-dependent density functional theory in a localized set of gaussian basis functions (TD-DFT/6-311++G(d,p)) calculations are made on statistically relevant configurations to obtain the average solvatochromic shift. All results presented here use the electrostatic embedding of the solvent. The statistically converged average result obtained of 2300 cm-1 is compared to previous theoretical results available. Analysis is made of the effective dipole moment of the hydrogen-bonded shell and how it could be held responsible for the polarization of the solvent molecules in the outer solvation shells.

TRAVELLING THROUGH PITCH SPACE SPEEDS UP MUSICAL TIME

SEVERAL MODELS OF TIME ESTIMATION HAVE BEEN developed in psychology; a few have been applied to music. In the present study, we assess the influence of the distances travelled through pitch space on retrospective time estimation. Participants listened to an isochronous chord sequence of 20-s duration. They were unexpectedly asked to reproduce the time interval of the sequence. The harmonic structure of the stimulus was manipulated so that the sequence either remained in the same key (CC) or travelled through a closely related key (CFC) or distant key (CGbC). Estimated times were shortened when the sequence modulated to a very distant key. This finding is discussed in light of Lerdahl's Tonal Pitch Space Theory (2001), Firmino and Bueno's Expected Development Fraction Model (in press), and models of time estimation.

CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPONENTIAL DIVERGENCE OF THE KALMAN FILTER FOR TIME-VARYING SYSTEMS

This paper studies semistability of the recursive Kalman filter in the context of linear time-varying (LTV), possibly nondetectable systems with incorrect noise information. Semistability is a key property, as it ensures that the actual estimation error does not diverge exponentially. We explore structural properties of the filter to obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the filter to be semistable. The condition does not involve limiting gains nor the solution of Riccati equations, as they can be difficult to obtain numerically and may not exist. We also compare semistability with the notions of stability and stability w.r.t. the initial error covariance, and we show that semistability in a sense makes no distinction between persistent and nonpersistent incorrect noise models, as opposed to stability. In the linear time invariant scenario we obtain algebraic, easy to test conditions for semistability and stability, which complement results available in the context of detectable systems. Illustrative examples are included.

Non-exhaustive tests for critical power estimation

Objective. - The aim of this study was to propose a new method that allows for the estimation of critical power (CP) from non-exhaustive tests using ratings of perceived exertion (RPE). Methods. - Twenty-two subjects underwent two practice trials for ergometer and Borg 15-point scale familiarization, and adaptation to severe exhaustive exercise. After then, four exercise bouts were performed on different days for the estimation of CP and anaerobic work capacity (AWC) by linear work-time equation, and CP(15), CP(17), AWC(15) and AWC(17) were estimated using the work and time to attainment of RPE15 and RPE17 based on the Borg 15-point scale. Results. - The CP, CP(15) and CP(17) (170-177W) were not significantly different (P>0.05). However, AWC, AWC(15) and AWC(17) were all different from each other. The correlations between CP(15) and CP(17), with CP were strong (R=0.871 and 0.911, respectively), but the AWC(15) and AWC(17) were not significantly correlated with AWC. Conclusion. - Sub-maximal. RPE responses can be used for the estimation of CP from non-exhaustive exercise protocols. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

H(infinity) filtering for rectangular discrete-time descriptor systems

This paper deals with the H(infinity) recursive estimation problem for general rectangular time-variant descriptor systems in discrete time. Riccati-equation based recursions for filtered and predicted estimates are developed based on a data fitting approach and game theory. In this approach, the nature determines a state sequence seeking to maximize the estimation cost, whereas the estimator tries to find an estimate that brings the estimation cost to a minimum. A solution exists for a specified gamma-level if the resulting cost is positive. In order to present some computational alternatives to the H(infinity) filters developed, they are rewritten in information form along with the respective array algorithms. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic approach to predict real machining time for milling free-form geometries applying high feed rate

An accurate estimate of machining time is very important for predicting delivery time, manufacturing costs, and also to help production process planning. Most commercial CAM software systems estimate the machining time in milling operations simply by dividing the entire tool path length by the programmed feed rate. This time estimate differs drastically from the real process time because the feed rate is not always constant due to machine and computer numerical controlled (CNC) limitations. This study presents a practical mechanistic method for milling time estimation when machining free-form geometries. The method considers a variable called machine response time (MRT) which characterizes the real CNC machine`s capacity to move in high feed rates in free-form geometries. MRT is a global performance feature which can be obtained for any type of CNC machine configuration by carrying out a simple test. For validating the methodology, a workpiece was used to generate NC programs for five different types of CNC machines. A practical industrial case study was also carried out to validate the method. The results indicated that MRT, and consequently, the real machining time, depends on the CNC machine`s potential: furthermore, the greater MRT, the larger the difference between predicted milling time and real milling time. The proposed method achieved an error range from 0.3% to 12% of the real machining time, whereas the CAM estimation achieved from 211% to 1244% error. The MRT-based process is also suggested as an instrument for helping in machine tool benchmarking.

Effects of weld strength mismatch on J and CTOD estimation procedure for SE(B) specimens

This work examines the effect of weld strength mismatch on fracture toughness measurements defined by J and CTOD fracture parameters using single edge notch bend (SE(B)) specimens. A central objective of the present study is to enlarge on previous developments of J and CTOD estimation procedures for welded bend specimens based upon plastic eta factors (eta) and plastic rotational factors (r (p) ). Very detailed non-linear finite element analyses for plane-strain models of standard SE(B) fracture specimens with a notch located at the center of square groove welds and in the heat affected zone provide the evolution of load with increased crack mouth opening displacement required for the estimation procedure. One key result emerging from the analyses is that levels of weld strength mismatch within the range +/- 20% mismatch do not affect significantly J and CTOD estimation expressions applicable to homogeneous materials, particularly for deeply cracked fracture specimens with relatively large weld grooves. The present study provides additional understanding on the effect of weld strength mismatch on J and CTOD toughness measurements while, at the same time, adding a fairly extensive body of results to determine parameters J and CTOD for different materials using bend specimens with varying geometries and mismatch levels.

Prediction of Crude Oil Properties and Chemical Composition by Means of Steady-State and Time-Resolved Fluorescence

Steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence measurements are reported for several crude oils and their saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA) fractions (saturates, aromatics and resins), isolated from maltene after pentane precipitation of the asphaltenes. There is a clear relationship between the American Petroleum Institute (API) grade of the crude oils and their fluorescence emission intensity and maxima. Dilution of the crude oil samples with cyclohexane results in a significant increase of emission intensity and a blue shift, which is a clear indication of the presence of energy-transfer processes between the emissive chromophores present in the crude oil. Both the fluorescence spectra and the mean fluorescence lifetimes of the three SARA fractions and their mixtures indicate that the aromatics and resins are the major contributors to the emission of crude oils. Total synchronous fluorescence scan (TSFS) spectral maps are preferable to steady-state fluorescence spectra for discriminating between the fractions, making TSFS maps a particularly interesting choice for the development of fluorescence-based methods for the characterization and classification of crude oils. More detailed studies, using a much wider range of excitation and emission wavelengths, are necessary to determine the utility of time-resolved fluorescence (TRF) data for this purpose. Preliminary models constructed using TSFS spectra from 21 crude oil samples show a very good correlation (R(2) > 0.88) between the calculated and measured values of API and the SARA fraction concentrations. The use of models based on a fast fluorescence measurement may thus be an alternative to tedious and time-consuming chemical analysis in refineries.

Performance analysis of a single-user MISO ultra-wideband time reversal system with DFE

This paper presents an analysis of the performance of a baseband multiple-input single-output (MISO) time reversal ultra-wideband system (TR-UWB) incorporating a symbol spaced decision feedback equalizer (DFE). A semi-analytical performance analysis based on a Gaussian approach is considered, which matched well with simulation results, even for the DFE case. The channel model adopted is based on the IEEE 802.15.3a model, considering correlated shadowing across antenna elements. In order to provide a more realistic analysis, channel estimation errors are considered for the design of the TR filter. A guideline for the choice of equalizer length is provided. The results show that the system`s performance improves with an increase in the number of transmit antennas and when a symbol spaced equalizer is used with a relatively small number of taps compared to the number of resolvable paths in the channel impulse response. Moreover, it is possible to conclude that due to the time reversal scheme, the error propagation in the DFE does not play a role in the system`s performance.

Linear minimum mean square filter for discrete-time linear systems with Markov jumps and multiplicative noises

In this paper we obtain the linear minimum mean square estimator (LMMSE) for discrete-time linear systems subject to state and measurement multiplicative noises and Markov jumps on the parameters. It is assumed that the Markov chain is not available. By using geometric arguments we obtain a Kalman type filter conveniently implementable in a recurrence form. The stationary case is also studied and a proof for the convergence of the error covariance matrix of the LMMSE to a stationary value under the assumption of mean square stability of the system and ergodicity of the associated Markov chain is obtained. It is shown that there exists a unique positive semi-definite solution for the stationary Riccati-like filter equation and, moreover, this solution is the limit of the error covariance matrix of the LMMSE. The advantage of this scheme is that it is very easy to implement and all calculations can be performed offline. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.