Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Translation and news making : a study of contemporary arabic television

Arabic satellite television has recently attracted tremendous attention in both the academic and professional worlds, with a special interest in Aljazeera as a curious phenomenon in the Arab region. Having made a household name for itself worldwide with the airing of the Bin Laden tapes, Aljazeera has set out to deliberately change the culture of Arabic journalism, as it has been repeatedly stated by its current General Manager Waddah Khanfar, and to shake up the Arab society by raising awareness to issues never discussed on television before and challenging long-established social and cultural values and norms while promoting, as it claims, Arab issues from a presumably Arab perspective. Working within the meta-frame of democracy, this Qatari-based network station has been received with mixed reactions ranging from complete support to utter rejection in both the west and the Arab world. This research examines the social semiotics of Arabic television and the socio-cultural impact of translation-mediated news in Arabic satellite television, with the aim to carry out a qualitative content analysis, informed by framing theory, critical linguistic analysis, social semiotics and translation theory, within a re-mediation framework which rests on the assumption that a medium “appropriates the techniques, forms and social significance of other media and attempts to rival or refashion them in the name of the real" (Bolter and Grusin, 2000: 66). This is a multilayered research into how translation operates at two different yet interwoven levels: translation proper, that is the rendition of discourse from one language into another at the text level, and translation as a broader process of interpretation of social behaviour that is driven by linguistic and cultural forms of another medium resulting in new social signs generated from source meaning reproduced as target meaning that is bound to be different in many respects. The research primarily focuses on the news media, news making and reporting at Arabic satellite television and looks at translation as a reframing process of news stories in terms of content and cultural values. This notion is based on the premise that by its very nature, news reporting is a framing process, which involves a reconstruction of reality into actualities in presenting the news and providing the context for it. In other words, the mediation of perceived reality through a media form, such as television, actually modifies the mind’s ordering and internal representation of the reality that is presented. The research examines the process of reframing through translation news already framed or actualized in another language and argues that in submitting framed news reports to the translation process several alterations take place, driven by the linguistic and cultural constraints and shaped by the context in which the content is presented. These alterations, which involve recontextualizations, may be intentional or unintentional, motivated or unmotivated. Generally, they are the product of lack of awareness of the dynamics and intricacies of turning a message from one language form into another. More specifically, they are the result of a synthesis process that consciously or subconsciously conforms to editorial policy and cultural interpretive frameworks. In either case, the original message is reproduced and the news is reframed. For the case study, this research examines news broadcasts by the now world-renowned Arabic satellite television station Aljazeera, and to a lesser extent the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation (LBC) and Al- Arabiya where access is feasible, for comparison and crosschecking purposes. As a new phenomenon in the Arab world, Arabic satellite television, especially 24-hour news and current affairs, provides an interesting area worthy of study, not only for its immediate socio-cultural and professional and ethical implications for the Arabic media in particular, but also for news and current affairs production in the western media that rely on foreign language sources and translation mediation for international stories.

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

CARRS-Q screen profiles

Staff from QUT’s Creative Industries Faculty (Drama, Film & TV) collaborated with CARRS-Q (Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland) to research, develop and produce a series of screen products. These products are designed to profile CARRS-Q for a variety of Australian and international audiences including potential students, research colleagues and collaborators, industry partners and professional bodies. They are designed for multiplatform display, including web, DVD and mobile devices. This project entails the adoption of practice-led research methodologies to explore and apply innovative screen production techniques including multi-image display; rapid-cut editing; and a combination of trained and non-trained talent.

Hybrid cascade converter topology with series connected symmetrical and asymmetrical diode-clamped H-Bridge cells

A novel H-bridge multilevel PWM converter topology based on a series connection of a high voltage (HV) diode-clamped inverter and a low voltage (LV) conventional inverter is proposed. A DC link voltage arrangement for the new hybrid and asymmetric solution is presented to have a maximum number of output voltage levels by preserving the adjacent switching vectors between voltage levels. Hence, a fifteen-level hybrid converter can be attained with a minimum number of power components. A comparative study has been carried out to present high performance of the proposed configuration to approach a very low THD of voltage and current, which leads to the possible elimination of output filter. Regarding the proposed configuration, a new cascade inverter is verified by cascading an asymmetrical diode-clamped inverter, in which nineteen levels can be synthesized in output voltage with the same number of components. To balance the DC link capacitor voltages for the maximum output voltage resolution as well as synthesise asymmetrical DC link combination, a new Multi-output Boost (MOB) converter is utilised at the DC link voltage of a seven-level H-bridge diode-clamped inverter. Simulation and hardware results based on different modulations are presented to confirm the validity of the proposed approach to achieve a high quality output voltage.

New strength : independent television companies in China’s television industry

As most of people know that all of mass media are state-owned in China, television stations are not exceptional to belong to the enormous state-owned system. But to date, with the economic reform in the broadcasting system and China entering into WTO, the television industry has increased greatly and the television market has matured with more and more competition. The players in China’s television industry have changed from the monologue of TV stations to multi roles of TV stations, production companies and overseas television companies, although TV stations are still the majority of China’s TV market. Especially, private television production companies are becoming more and more active in this market. In this paper, I will describe the development process and challenges of this group in China and ask whether the emergence of this group means for the whole China’s TV industry?

Private television production companies in China : new strength in the market

As most people know, all mass media, including television stations, are state-owned in China. However, with the economic reform in the broadcasting system and China entering the World Trade Organization (WTO), the television industry has expanded greatly and the television market has evolved, with an ensuing growth of competition. The players in China’s television industry have changed from a monologue of TV stations to stations that hold multiple roles and a growth of production companies and overseas television companies although the TV stations still dominate China’s television market. Private television production companies are, however, becoming increasingly active in this market.

Independent television production, TV formats and media diversity in China

Beginning around 2003, television studies has seen the growth of interest in the genre of reality shows. However, concentrating on this genre has tended to sideline the even more significant emergence of the program format as a central mode of business and culture in the new television landscape. "Localizing Global TV" redresses this balance, and heralds the emergence of an important, exciting and challenging area of television studies. Topics explored include reality TV, makeover programs, sitcoms, talent shows and fiction serials, as well as broadcaster management policies, production decision chains and audience participation processes. This seminal work will be of considerable interest to media scholars internationally.

The key lessons learnt from producing the ABC programme Talking Heads a talk show/documentary hybrid in a fast turnaround environment

The following exegesis will detail the key advantages and disadvantages of combining a traditional talk show genre with a linear documentary format using a small production team and a limited budget in a fast turnaround weekly environment. It will deal with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation series Talking Heads, broadcast weekly in the early evening schedule for the network at 18.30 with the presenter Peter Thompson. As Executive Producer for the programme at its inception I was responsible for setting it up for the ABC in Brisbane, a role that included selecting most of the team to work on the series and commissioning the music, titles and all other aspects required to bring the show to the screen. What emerged when producing this generic hybrid will be examined at length, including: „h The talk show/documentary hybrid format needs longer than 26¡¦30¡¨ to be entirely successful. „h The type of presenter ideally suited to the talk show/documentary format requires someone who is genuinely interested in their guests and flexible enough to maintain the format against tangential odds. „h The use of illustrative footage shot in a documentary style narrative improves the talk show format. iv „h The fast turnaround of the talk show/documentary hybrid puts tremendous pressure on the time frames for archive research and copyright clearance and therefore needs to be well-resourced. „h In a fast turnaround talk show/documentary format the field components are advantageous but require very low shooting ratios to be sustainable. „h An intimate set works best for a talk show hybrid like this. Also submitted are two DVDs of recordings of programmes I produced and directed from the first and third series. These are for consideration in the practical component of this project and reflect the changes that I made to the series.

Election campaigns, and television news coverage : the case of the 2001 Australian election

This paper examines the patterns of television news coverage of the political parties, their leaders and the issues they raised during the 2001 Australian federal election campaign. By focusing on some issues, parties and leaders, television has long been argued to constrain voters' evaluations. We find that television news coverage in the 2001 Australian election campaign focused primarily on international issues, especially terrorism and asylum seekers, and on the two major parties - virtually to the exclusion of coverage of the minor parties and their leaders. Within the major party 'two-horse race', television gave substantially more coverage to the leaders than to the parties themselves, thereby sustaining what some have called a 'presidential'-style political contest. John Howard emerged as the winner in the leaders' stakes, garnering more coverage than Labor's Kim Beazley.

The relationship between deformity correction and clinical outcomes after thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery : a prospective series of 100 patients

The relationship between deformity correction and self-reported patient satisfaction after thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis surgery is unknown. Scoliosis Research Society questionnaire scores, radiographic outcomes, and rib hump correction were prospectively assessed for a group of 100 patients pre-operatively and at two years after surgery. Patients with lower post-op major Cobb angles report significantly higher SRS scores than patients with higher post-op Cobb angles.

Control issues for velocity sourced Series Elastic Actuators

The Series Elasic Actuator has been proposed as a method for providing safe force or torque based acutation for robots that interact with humans. In this paper we look at some outstanding issues in the implementation and control of Series Elastic Actuators. The study addresses issues in making the Series Elastic Actuator respond effectively in the presence of physical difficulties such as restriction, using a computation efficient controller. The improvement over previous implementations is achieved by treating the motor as a velocity source to the elastic element, rather than as a torque source.

Assessing the safety of a velocity sourced series elastic actuator using the head injury criterion

The Velocity Sourced Series Elastic Actuator has been proposed as a method for providing safe force or torque based actuation for robots without compromising the actuator performance. In this paper we assess the safety of Velocity Sourced Series Elastic Actuators by measuring the Head Injury Criterion scores for collisions with a model head. The study makes a comparative analysis against stiff, high impedance actuation using the same motor without the series elastic component, showing that the series elastic component brings about a massive reduction in the chance of head injury. The benefits of a collision detection and safe reaction system are shown to be limited to collisions at low speeds, providing greater interaction comfort but not necessarily contributing to safety from injury.

Demonstrating the safety and performance of a velocity sourced series elastic actuator

Actuators with deliberately added compliant elements in the transmission system are often described as improving the safety of the actuator at the detriment of the performance. We show that our variant of the Series Elastic Actuator topology, the Velocity Sourced Series Elastic Actuator, has well defined performance characteristics that make for improvements in safety and performance over conventional high impedance actuators. The improvement in performance was principally achieved by having tight velocity control of the DC motor that acts as the mechanical power source for the actuator. Results for performance are given for point to point transition times, while results for safety are based on empirical assessment of the Head Injury Criterion during collisions.