A költségvetési politika fenntarthatósága és a szabályalapú gazdaságpolitika (The sustainability of fiscal policy and a rule-based economic policy)

A költségvetési pénzügyek irodalmában a fenntarthatóság koncepciója csak az elmúlt két-három évtizedben került újra a vizsgálódás fókuszába. Ennek oka kettős. Az 1960-as évek végéig a fegyelmezett fiskális politikai gyakorlat nem igényelte annak állandó napirenden tartását. Csak az olajválságok idejére eső és azután állandósulni látszó költségvetési hiányok és a növekvő államadósság-állományok, illetve az ezek okán erősödő adósságkockázat irányította újra a figyelmet a költségvetési fegyelem fenntartásának fontosságára. Ezt a változást a közgazdaságtudományi elmélettörténetben beállott gyökeres változás kísérte. Az aktív keresletmenedzsment bírálataként megfogalmazódó monetarista kritika, illetve annak radikálisabb újklasszikus változata, a politikai döntéshozókról (és így a diszkrecionális költségvetési politika hatásosságáról) lesújtó véleményt fogalmazott meg, ami azután az aktív intézkedések korlátozásának irányába terelte a gazdaságpolitika alakítóit is. A következőkben e kettős – a fiskális politikai gyakorlat és a közgazdasági elméletek területén bekövetkezett –fordulat bemutatására vállalkozunk az Akadémiai Kiadónál megjelenő Költségvetési pénzügyek – Hiány, államadósság, fenntarthatóság című kötetünk bizonyos részeinek felhasználásával.

Default Invariance: Naïve Category of Law and Finance

Default invariance is the idea that default does not change at any scale of law and finance. Default is a conserved quantity in a universe where fundamental principles of law and finance operate. It exists at the micro-level as part of the fundamental structure of every financial transaction, and at the macro- level, as a fixed critical point within the relatively stable phases of the law and finance cycle. A key point is that default is equivalent to maximizing uncertainty at the micro-level and at the macro-level, is equivalent to the phase transition where unbearable fluctuations occur in all forms of risk transformation, including maturity, liquidity and credit. As such, default invariance is the glue that links the micro and macro structures of law and finance. In this essay, we apply naïve category theory (NCT), a type of mapping logic, to these types of phenomena. The purpose of using NCT is to introduce a rigorous (but simple) mathematical methodology to law and finance discourse and to show that these types of structural considerations are of prime practical importance and significance to law and finance practitioners. These mappings imply a number of novel areas of investigation. From the micro- structure, three macro-approximations are implied. These approximations form the core analytical framework which we will use to examine the phenomena and hypothesize rules governing law and finance. Our observations from these approximations are grouped into five findings. While the entirety of the five findings can be encapsulated by the three approximations, since the intended audience of this paper is the non-specialist in law, finance and category theory, for ease of access we will illustrate the use of the mappings with relatively common concepts drawn from law and finance, focusing especially on financial contracts, derivatives, Shadow Banking, credit rating agencies and credit crises.

Policy Transfer and the Sustainability of Public Private Partnership in Ireland::A conceptual analysis

There has been private sector involvement in the delivery of public services in the Irish State since its foundation. This involvement was formalised in 1998 when Public Private Partnership (PPP) was officially introduced. Ireland is a latecomer to PPP and, prior to the credit crisis, was seen as a ‘rapid follower’ relying primarily on the UK PPP model in the procurement of infrastructure in transport, education, housing/urban regeneration and water/wastewater.  PPP activity in Ireland stalled during the credit crisis, and some projects were cancelled, but it has taken off again recently with part of the Infrastructure and Capital Investment Plan 2016 – 2021 to be delivered through PPP showing continuing political commitment to PPP.  Ireland’s interest in PPP cannot be explained by economic rationale alone, as PPP was initiated during a period of prosperity. We consider three alternative explanations: voluntary adoption – where the UK model was closely followed; coercive adoption – where PPP policy was forced upon Ireland; and institutional isomorphism – where institutional creation and change was promoted to aid public sector organisations in gaining institutional legitimacy. We find evidence of all three patterns, with coercive adoption becoming more relevant in recent years. Ireland’s rapid uptake of PPP differs from other European countries, mostly because when PPP was introduced in 1998, the Irish State was in an economic position where it could have directly procured necessary infrastructure. This paper therefore asks why PPP was adopted and how this adoption pattern has affected the sustainability of PPP in Ireland.  This paper defines PPP; examines the background to the PPP approach adopted in Ireland; outlines the theoretical framework of the paper: transfer theory and institutional theory; discusses the methodology; reports on findings and gives conclusions.   

The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change in Coasts and Oceans: Literature Review, Policy Implications and Research Agenda

Sea level rise and other effects of climate change on oceans and coasts around the world are major reasons to halt the emissions of greenhouse gases to the maximum extent. But historical emissions and sea level rise have already begun so steps to adapt to a world where shorelines, coastal populations, and economies could be dramatically altered are now essential. This presents significant economic challenges in four areas. (1) Large expenditures for adaptation steps may be required but the extent of sea level rise and thus the expenditures are unknowable at this point. Traditional methods for comparing benefits and costs are severely limited, but decisions must still be made. (2) It is not clear where the funding for adaptation will come from, which is a barrier to even starting planning. (3) The extent of economic vulnerability has been illustrated with assessments of risks to current properties, but these likely significantly understate the risks that lie in the future. (4) Market-based solutions to reducing climate change are now generally accepted, but their role in adaptation is less clear. Reviewing the literature addressing each of these points, this paper suggests specific strategies for dealing with uncertainty in assessing the economics of adaptation options, reviews the wide range of options for funding coastal adaption, identifies a number of serious deficiencies in current economic vulnerability studies, and suggests how market based approaches might be used in shaping adaptation strategies. The paper concludes by identifying a research agenda for the economics of coastal adaptation that, if completed, could significantly increase the likelihood of economically efficient coastal adaptation.

Bank Governance and the Bail-in in the EU. A Law & Finance analysis on the role of bail-inable creditors

This dissertation assesses the impact of the EU Directive on Bank Recovery and Resolution (BRRD) on bank corporate governance and investigates a fundamental question. Can the resolution framework for distressed banks enhance the quality of banks’ decision making? According to the Directive, the Resolution Authority can impose losses on bank’s creditors in case of distress through a bail-in. Bail-inable creditors become residual claimants of the bank, contingent on its distress. The first part of the dissertation establishes an analytical framework for bank governance, starting from the problem of what can be defined as “good governance” in banking. The dissertation hypothesizes that governance regulation represents a necessary link between the incentives of corporate constituencies and the goals of substantive regulation. The second part builds upon this analytical framework and carries out a positive analysis encompassing three channels of debt governance; namely, price internalisation of risk; contractual arrangements and the discrete impact of different type of creditors. The existence of a resolution framework should incentivise bail-inable creditors to better discipline the borrowing bank; yet, the design of both the capital and resolution regulation largely foreclose such possibility to creditors. Against this backdrop, the third part of the dissertation moves to normative considerations. The approach to this normative part combines and complements the study of cash flow rights of the management with the study of the voting rights to bail-inable creditors. On the cash flow side, the dissertation proposes to include bail-inable debt as part of the variable remuneration for bank risk-takers. On the voting right, the proposal is to grant a limited basket of ex-ante governance rights to bail-inable creditors. Such a unified approach is rather uncommon in the literature, where cash flow rights and voting rights are often approached separately whereas those complement each other in the dissertation.

Regulating Vertical Agreements: A Comparative Law & Economics analysis of Brazil and Europe

This PhD thesis discusses antitrust enforcement of anti-competitive vertical agreements in Europe and in Brazil from an institutional perspective. It considers both the evolution of the legal framework and the application of the existing policies, with the analysis of case studies. The research highlights the main challenges of the current approaches adopted by the competition authorities in these jurisdictions and formulates specific proposals for future improvements. Because the Brazilian competition rules were originally inspired by the European legal framework, this thesis also summarizes the contemporary discussions regarding comparative law and the efficiency of transplanting laws and good practices. In a Law & Economics perspective, vertical agreements have always been a paradoxical topic and constitute one of the most dynamic disputes for antitrust enforcement. The reason for that concern is the fact that those contracts among companies are complex in nature. Taking into account this background, the thesis provides an original analysis of the pro- and anti-competitive effects of vertical agreements, based on the classical literature of Law & Economics. One of the novelties of the research is the extension of the economic analysis of vertical agreements to also consider new forms of contractual abuses in the context of digital markets, such as the contractual restrictions that are being put I practice in e-commerce platforms. The international comparative approach focuses on the Brazilian and European experiences, and opens up a reflection about the policy recommendations applied to several countries with similar economic and institutional realities.

Policies, policy-makers and financial flows: An empirical examination

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: in depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

NIPE - WP 02/2016

Unemployment, growth and fiscal policy: new insights on the hysteresis hypothesis

We develop a growth model with unemployment due to imperfections in the labor market. In this model, wage inertia and balanced budget rules cause a complementarity between capital and employment capable of explaining the existence of multiple equilibrium paths. Hysteresis is viewed as the result of a selection between these diferent equilibrium paths. We use this model to argue that, in contrast to the US, those fiscal policies followed by most of the European countries after the shocks of the 1970’s may have played a central role in generating hysteresis.

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Cyclical Factor Utilization

In a neoclassical growth model with monopolistic competition in the product market, the presence of cyclical factor utilization enhances the stabilization role of countercyclical taxes. The costs of varying capital utilization take the form of varying rates of depreciation, which in turn have amplifying effect on investment decisions as well as the volatility of most aggregate variables. This creates an additional channel through which taxes affect the economy, a channel that enhances the stabilization role of countercyclical taxes, with particularly strong effects in the labor market. However, in terms of welfare, countercyclical taxes are welfare inferior due to reduced precautionary saving motives.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of London-based Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on the economy of England: Accounting for Alternative Uses of Public Expenditure

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010a) for the case of London-based HEIs’ impact on the English economy in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of London HEIs. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of alternative uses of public expenditure, and show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate this. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or common interests?

This paper studies the aggregate and distributional implications of Markov-perfect tax-spending policy in a neoclassical growth model with capitalists and workers. Focusing on the long run, our main fi ndings are: (i) it is optimal for a benevolent government, which cares equally about its citizens, to tax capital heavily and to subsidise labour; (ii) a Pareto improving means to reduce ine¢ ciently high capital taxation under discretion is for the government to place greater weight on the welfare of capitalists; (iii) capitalists and workers preferences, regarding the optimal amount of "capitalist bias", are not aligned implying a conflict of interests.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.