957 resultados para Tanks-in-series Model


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In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

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A quantificação do impacto das práticas de preparo sobre as perdas de carbono do solo é dependente da habilidade de se descrever a variabilidade temporal da emissão de CO2 do solo após preparo. Tem sido sugerido que as grandes quantidades de CO2 emitido após o preparo do solo podem servir como um indicador das modificações nos estoques de carbono do solo em longo termo. Neste trabalho é apresentado um modelo de duas partes baseado na temperatura e na umidade do solo e que inclui um termo exponencial decrescente do tempo que é eficiente no ajuste das emissões intermediárias após preparo: arado de disco seguido de uma passagem com a grade niveladora (convencional) e escarificador de arrasto seguido da passagem com rolo destorroador (reduzido). As emissões após o preparo do solo são descritas utilizando-se estimativa não linear com um coeficiente de determinação (R²) tão alto quanto 0.98 após preparo reduzido. Os resultados indicam que nas previsões da emissão de CO2 após o preparo do solo é importante considerar um termo exponencial decrescente no tempo após preparo.

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Subcutaneous heat-coagulated egg white implants (EWI) induce chronic, intense local eosinophilia in mice, followed by asthma-like responses to airway ovalbumin challenge. Our goal was to define the mechanisms of selective eosinophil accumulation in the EWI model. EWI carriers were challenged i.p. with ovalbumin and the contributions of cellular immunity and inflammatory mediators to the resulting leukocyte accumulation were defined through cell transfer and pharmacological inhibition protocols. Eosinophil recruitment required Major Histocompatibility Complex Class It expression, and was abolished by the leukotriene B4 (LTB4) receptor antagonist CP 105.696, the 5-lipoxygenase inhibitor BWA4C and the 5-lipoxygenase activating protein inhibitor MK886. Eosinophil recruitment in EWI carriers followed transfer of: a) CD4(+) (but not CD4(-)) cells, harvested from EWI donors and restimulated ex vivo; b) their cell-free supernatants, containing LTB4. Restimulation in the presence of MK886 was ineffective. CC chemokine receptor ligand (CCL)5 and CCL2 were induced by ovalbumin challenge in vivo. mRNA for CCL17 and CCL11 was induced in ovalbumin-restimulated CD4(+) cells ex vivo. MK886 blocked induction of CCL17 Pretreatment of EWI carriers with MK886 eliminated the effectiveness of exogenously administered CCL11, CCL2 and CCL5. In conclusion, chemokine-producing, ovalburnin-restimulated CD4(+) cells initiate eosinophil recruitment which is strictly dependent on LTB4 production. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Objective and design: To determine the expression pattern and distribution of the glucocorticoid-inducible protein annexin 1 (ANXA1) in a murine model of chronic granulomatous inflammation.Materials or subjects: TO Mouse.Treatment: Chronic granulomatous inflammation was induced by injecting into dorsal sub-cutaneous air-pouches in mice, a mixture of croton oil and Freund's complete adjuvant (CO/FCA).Methods: Western and northern analysis, corticosterone assay, and immunohistochemistry. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA followed by Tukey's pair-wise comparisons or Dunnett's multiple comparisons.Results: ANXA1 protein levels changed significantly throughout the 4-week time course, with an initial peak at day 7 and a later elevation at 28 days. ANXA1 mRNA levels peaked at days 1 and 3, with a significant decline at day 7 followed by an upward trend to day 28. Plasma corticosterone measurements taken throughout the time course revealed an increase from 14 days onward, suggesting that corticosterone does not influence ANXA1 expression during the initial stages of the model. Immunogold staining revealed that ANXA1 expression in the inflamed tissue was mainly in extravasated neutrophils, with intact protein (37 kDa) being predominantly observed on the cell membrane.Conclusions: the pattern of ANXA1 expression indicates that infiltrated neutrophils are responsible for the majority of ANXA1 present both at early and later stages of this model of granulomatous inflammation.

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Quark-model descriptions of the nucleon-nucleon interaction contain two main ingredients, a quark-exchange mechanism for the short-range repulsion and meson exchanges for the medium- and long-range parts of the interaction. We point out the special role played by higher partial waves, and in particular the (1)F(3), as a very sensitive probe for the meson-exchange pan employed in these interaction models. In particular, we show that the presently available models fail to provide a reasonable description of higher partial waves and indicate the reasons for this shortcoming.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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We consider a model for rattling in single-stage gearbox systems with some backlash consisting of two wheels with a sinusoidal driving; the equations of motions are analytically integrated between two impacts of the gear teeth. Just after each impact, a mapping is used to obtain the dynamical variables. We have observed a rich dynamical behavior in such system, by varying its control parameters, and we focus on intermittent switching between laminar oscillations and chaotic bursting, as well as crises, which are sudden changes in the chaotic behavior. The corresponding transient basins in phase space are found to be riddled-like, with a highly interwoven fractal structure. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A model of nociceptive threshold determination was developed for evaluation of NSAID analgesia in cats. In a crossover study, eight cats received carprofen (4 mg/kg), buprenorphine (0.01 mg/kg) or saline (0.3 ml) subcutaneously before intradermal kaolin injection on the antebrachium to induce mild inflammation. Pressure thresholds were measured at the injected site using blunt-ended pins advanced by manual inflation of a bladder within a bracelet. Bladder pressure was recorded as threshold (PT) at the behavioural end point. Baseline PT were recorded before kaolin injection (time 0). PT was measured at 2-10 h intervals for 52 h. PT below the lower 95% confidence interval (CI) of baseline values indicated hyperalgesia. After saline, hyperalgesia was detected from 2-6 h, 22-26 h, and at 30 and 36 h. After carprofen, PT remained within the 95% CI. After buprenorphine, PT remained within the 95% CI except at 2 h. Carprofen and to some extent buprenorphine, prevented inflammatory hyperalgesia. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.