976 resultados para Synechococcus blooms
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The overall attempt of the study was aimed to understand the microphytoplankton community composition and its variations along a highly complex and dynamic marine ecosystem, the northern Arabian Sea. The data generated provides a first of its kind knowledge on the major primary producers of the region. There appears significant response among the microphytoplankton community structure towards the variations in the hydrographic conditions during the winter monsoon period. Interannually, variations were observed within the microphytoplankton community associated with the variability in temperature patterns and the intensity of convective mixing. Changing bloom pattern and dominating species among the phytoplankton community open new frontiers and vistas towards more intense study on the biological responses towards physical processes. The production of large amount of organic matter as a result of intense blooming of Noctiluca as well as diatoms aggregations augment the particulate organic substances in these ecosystem. This definitely influences the carbon dynamics of the northern Arabian Sea. Detailed investigations based on time series as well as trophodynamic studies are necessary to elucidate the carbon flux and associated impacts of winter-spring blooms in NEAS. Arabian sea is considered as one among the hotspot for carbon dynamics and the pioneering records on the major primary producers fuels carbon based export production studies and provides a platform for future research. Moreover upcoming researches based on satellite based remote sensing on productivity patterns utilizes these insitu observations and taxonomic data sets of phytoplankton for validation of bloom specific algorithm development and its implementation. Furthermore Saurashtra coast is considered as a major fishing zone of Indian EEZ. The studies on the phytoplankton in these regions provide valuable raw data for fishery prediction models and identifying fishing zones. With the Summary and Conclusion 177 baseline data obtained further trophodynamic studies can be initiated in the complex productive North Eastern Arabian Seas (NEAS) ecosystem that is still remaining unexplored.
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The present work is the study of filamentous algae in the paddy fields of Kuttanad and Kole lands of Kerala. This investigation was initiated by sampling of filamentous algae in Kuttanad during December 2010 to February 2011. A second phase of sampling was done from November 2011 to February 2012. The sampling periodicity corresponded to the crop growth starting from field preparation through sowing, and continued till the harvest. Sampling locations were selected from the active paddy cultivation regions of the six agronomic zones of Kuttanad. The numbers of sampling locations were proportional to the area of each zone. Algae of the Kole lands were collected during from October 2011 to January 2012. It was observed that blue-green algae dominated in both Kuttanad and Kole lands. Thirty two species of blue-green algae and eight species of green algae were identified from Kuttanad. The highest number of algal species was observed from Kayal lands in Kuttanad throughout the cropping season. Among the thirty two species of blue-green algae twenty five species are nonheterocystous and seven species are heterocystous. Twenty eight species of blue-green and six species of green algae were identified from Kole lands, and highest number of species was observed in Palakkal throughout the cropping season. Among the twenty eight species of blue-green algae collected from Kole lands twenty one species are non-heterocystous, and only seven species are heterocystous filamentous algae. Blooms of Spirogyra were observed during the second phase of sampling in Kuttanad and also in the Kole lands. The results of the germination study revealed that the extract of Spirogyra sp. inhibited seed germination and reduced seedling vigour. The growth of the treated seedlings was evaluated by pot experiments. The results clearly showed that Spirogyra sp. can negatively affect the seed germination, seedling vigour, and the yield of rice.
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The resurgence of the enteric pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative organism of epidemic cholera, remains a major health problem in many developing countries like India. The southern Indian state of Kerala is endemic to cholera. The outbreaks of cholera follow a seasonal pattern in regions of endemicity. Marine aquaculture settings and mangrove environments of Kerala serve as reservoirs for V. cholerae. The non-O1/non-O139 environmental isolates of V. cholerae with incomplete ‘virulence casette’ are to be dealt with caution as they constitute a major reservoir of diverse virulence genes in the marine environment and play a crucial role in pathogenicity and horizontal gene transfer. The genes coding cholera toxin are borne on, and can be infectiously transmitted by CTXΦ, a filamentous lysogenic vibriophages. Temperate phages can provide crucial virulence and fitness factors affecting cell metabolism, bacterial adhesion, colonization, immunity, antibiotic resistance and serum resistance. The present study was an attempt to screen the marine environments like aquafarms and mangroves of coastal areas of Alappuzha and Cochin, Kerala for the presence of lysogenic V. cholerae, to study their pathogenicity and also gene transfer potential. Phenotypic and molecular methods were used for identification of isolates as V. cholerae. The thirty one isolates which were Gram negative, oxidase positive, fermentative, with or without gas production on MOF media and which showed yellow coloured colonies on TCBS (Thiosulfate Citrate Bile salt Sucrose) agar were segregated as vibrios. Twenty two environmental V. cholerae strains of both O1 and non- O1/non-O139 serogroups on induction with mitomycin C showed the presence of lysogenic phages. They produced characteristic turbid plaques in double agar overlay assay using the indicator strain V. cholerae El Tor MAK 757. PCR based molecular typing with primers targeting specific conserved sequences in the bacterial genome, demonstrated genetic diversity among these lysogen containing non-O1 V. cholerae . Polymerase chain reaction was also employed as a rapid screening method to verify the presence of 9 virulence genes namely, ctxA, ctxB, ace, hlyA, toxR, zot,tcpA, ninT and nanH, using gene specific primers. The presence of tcpA gene in ALPVC3 was alarming, as it indicates the possibility of an epidemic by accepting the cholera. Differential induction studies used ΦALPVC3, ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14, underlining the possibility of prophage induction in natural ecosystems, due to abiotic factors like antibiotics, pollutants, temperature and UV. The efficiency of induction of prophages varied considerably in response to the different induction agents. The growth curve of lysogenic V. cholerae used in the study drastically varied in the presence of strong prophage inducers like antibiotics and UV. Bacterial cell lysis was directly proportional to increase in phage number due to induction. Morphological characterization of vibriophages by Transmission Electron Microscopy revealed hexagonal heads for all the four phages. Vibriophage ΦALPVC3 exhibited isometric and contractile tails characteristic of family Myoviridae, while phages ΦALPVC11 and ΦALPVC12 demonstrated the typical hexagonal head and non-contractile tail of family Siphoviridae. ΦEKM14, the podophage was distinguished by short non-contractile tail and icosahedral head. This work demonstrated that environmental parameters can influence the viability and cell adsorption rates of V. cholerae phages. Adsorption studies showed 100% adsorption of ΦALPVC3 ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14 after 25, 30, 40 and 35 minutes respectively. Exposure to high temperatures ranging from 50ºC to 100ºC drastically reduced phage viability. The optimum concentration of NaCl required for survival of vibriophages except ΦEKM14 was 0.5 M and that for ΦEKM14 was 1M NaCl. Survival of phage particles was maximum at pH 7-8. V. cholerae is assumed to have existed long before their human host and so the pathogenic clones may have evolved from aquatic forms which later colonized the human intestine by progressive acquisition of genes. This is supported by the fact that the vast majority of V. cholerae strains are still part of the natural aquatic environment. CTXΦ has played a critical role in the evolution of the pathogenicity of V. cholerae as it can transmit the ctxAB gene. The unusual transformation of V. cholerae strains associated with epidemics and the emergence of V. cholera O139 demonstrates the evolutionary success of the organism in attaining greater fitness. Genetic changes in pathogenic V. cholerae constitute a natural process for developing immunity within an endemically infected population. The alternative hosts and lysogenic environmental V. cholerae strains may potentially act as cofactors in promoting cholera phage ‘‘blooms’’ within aquatic environments, thereby influencing transmission of phage sensitive, pathogenic V. cholerae strains by aquatic vehicles. Differential induction of the phages is a clear indication of the impact of environmental pollution and global changes on phage induction. The development of molecular biology techniques offered an accessible gateway for investigating the molecular events leading to genetic diversity in the marine environment. Using nucleic acids as targets, the methods of fingerprinting like ERIC PCR and BOX PCR, revealed that the marine environment harbours potentially pathogenic group of bacteria with genetic diversity. The distribution of virulence associated genes in the environmental isolates of V. cholerae provides tangible material for further investigation. Nucleotide and protein sequence analysis alongwith protein structure prediction aids in better understanding of the variation inalleles of same gene in different ecological niche and its impact on the protein structure for attaining greater fitness of pathogens. The evidences of the co-evolution of virulence genes in toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from different lineages of environmental non-O1 strains is alarming. Transduction studies would indicate that the phenomenon of acquisition of these virulence genes by lateral gene transfer, although rare, is not quite uncommon amongst non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae and it has a key role in diversification. All these considerations justify the need for an integrated approach towards the development of an effective surveillance system to monitor evolution of V. cholerae strains with epidemic potential. Results presented in this study, if considered together with the mechanism proposed as above, would strongly suggest that the bacteriophage also intervenes as a variable in shaping the cholera bacterium, which cannot be ignored and hinting at imminent future epidemics.
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Ausgehend von dem von Friedrich Edding geprägten Begriff der Schlüsselfähigkeit entwickelte Dieter Mertens Anfang der 1970er Jahre sein Konzept der Schlüsselqualifikationen. Damit suchte er Wege, Menschen so zu qualifizieren, dass sie ihnen übertragene berufliche Aufgaben, auch in einem sich rasch verändernden Umfeld, bewältigen können. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass die Rezeption des Begriffs in verschiedenen Bildungsbereichen mit unterschiedlichen Intensitäten und Resultaten verlief. Am folgenreichsten war die Rezeption in der Berufsbildung. Von wenigen skeptischen Stimmen abgesehen, stieß das Konzept der Schlüsselqualifikationen auf positive Zustimmung und mehrere Umsetzungsversuche wurden unternommen. Diese führten allerdings zu einer Verlängerung der Liste der Schlüsselqualifikationen (die ursprünglich von Mertens als abschließbar angedacht war). Ein Konsens, was in der Berufsbildung als Schlüsselqualifikationen zu gelten hat, ist immer noch nicht in Sicht. In den allgemeinbildenden Schulen hingegen fand das Konzept keine große Beachtung. Zwar wurde hin und wieder auf den Begriff zurückgegriffen, um beispielsweise allgemein verbindliche Standards in der Schule zu thematisieren oder neuen Inhalten eine Legitimation zu verschaffen, dennoch griff die Debatte in der Schulpädagogik nicht nachhaltig. Gründe dafür liegen zum einen in der dem Konzept inhärenten berufsvorbereitenden Funktion, die der Idealvorstellung einer zweckfreien Bildung widerspricht, zum anderen in der relativ straffen und zentralisierten Gestaltung der Lehrpläne. Die vorliegende Arbeit setzt sich mit dem Konzept der Schlüsselqualifikationen im Hochschulbereich auseinander. Eine Untersuchung von ca. 130 deutsch- und englischsprachigen Arbeiten, die Schlüsselqualifikationen im Hochschulbereich zum Thema haben, belegt eine sehr große Heterogenität der zugrunde liegenden Vorstellungen und konkreten Modelle. Es wird gezeigt, dass die zwei wichtigsten Ordnungsschemata, die gelegentlich zur Abgrenzung der Schlüsselqualifikationen gegenüber anderen Bildungskomponenten herangezogen werden (nämlich die Taxonomie der Lernziele von Bloom und das Handlungskompetenzmodell von Roth in der Weiterentwicklung von Reetz) mit keinem kohärenten Rahmenwerk, das der Fülle der Modelle von Schlüsselqualifikationen im Hochschulbereich gerecht wäre, aufwarten können. Eine Alternative bietet eine diskursanalytische Perspektive foucaultscher Prägung. Begriffen als eine diskursive Formation, haben Modelle der Schlüsselqualifikationen ihre Gemeinsamkeit nicht in dem vermeintlich gemeinsamen Gegenstand. Demnach sind Schlüsselqualifikationen in der heutigen Hochschuldebatte keine Qualifikationen suis generis, die eine eigene Kategorie bilden, sondern eine Antwort auf die Herausforderungen, die die verschiedenartigen Veränderungen in und um Hochschulen mit sich bringen. Es lassen sich drei Kontexte identifizieren, in denen die Modelle der Schlüsselqualifikationen der Herausforderung zu begegnen versuchen: in der Gesellschaft im Allgemeinen, in der vor-universitären Bildung sowie in der Hochschulbildung und in der Berufswelt. In diesen Kontexten artikulieren die Modelle der Schlüsselqualifikationen verschiedene Dimensionen, um Gesellschafts-, Studier und Beschäftigungsfähigkeit der Studierenden zu fördern. Eine vergleichende Analyse der Debatten und Modelle der Schlüsselqualifikationen in der BRD und in England zeigt, dass diese drei Kontexte in beiden Ländern vorfindbar sind, jedoch deren inhaltliche Vorstellung und konkrete Umsetzung aufgrund der Partikularitäten des jeweiligen Hochschulsystems unterschiedliche Akzentuierungen erfahren. Anders als in der BRD betonen die Modelle der Förderung der Studierfähigkeit in England die Brückenkurse als Hilfestellung bei der Vorbereitung auf das Studium. Das hängt mit den uneinheitlichen Zugangsregelungen zum Hochschulstudium und der hierarchischen Struktur im englischen Hochschulsystem zusammen. Bei der Förderung der Beschäftigungsfähigkeit setzen die Modelle der Schlüsselqualifikationen in Deutschland, wo traditionell ein Hochschulstudium als berufsvorbereitend angesehen wird, den Akzent auf Praxisbezug des Studiums und auf Flexibilität. In England hingegen, wo sich das Studium per se nicht als berufsqualifizierend versteht, rücken die Modelle der Schlüsselqualifikationen den Übergang in den Arbeitsmarkt und das Karrieremanagement - subsumiert unter dem Konzept der employability - in den Vordergrund.
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A brief skim through educational theory intended for students registered on a single module in Technology Enhanced Learning. Startes with Blooms taxonomy, travles through instructivism and constructivism and on to theories of motivation/
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Mediterranean salt marshes are ecosystems that are highly influenced by sea changes and freshwater inputs from runoff. In these ecosystems, toxic and non-toxic algae blooms often produce large and unpredictable biomasses of phytoplankton. The Microtox R test has been described as a successful, quick method for detecting toxicity in various phytoplankton taxa. Ourstudy sought to test the efficiency of Microtox R in detecting toxic HAB in Mediterranean salt marshes. The results showed that the Microtox R test was able to detect toxic substances in the particulate matter of several lagoons in the Empordà salt marshes. This Microtox R toxicity coincided with periods when potentially harmful cyanobacteria, dinoflagellates and haptophytes had a high biomass. The results suggest that potentially harmful phytoplankton cannot be ruled out as a source of Microtox R
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Se ha estudiado la dinámica del fitoplancton en las lagunas costeras de Aiguamolls de l'Empordà. El fitoplancton esta sujeto principalmente al control "bottom-up", la variabilidad hidrológica y la disponibilidad de nutrientes tienen una mayor influencia en la composición y distribución de tamaños del fitoplancton, que el zooplancton. La concentración de materia orgánica disuelta es el factor ambiental más correlacionado con el crecimiento de la biomasa fitoplanctónica. Dada la proximidad entre las lagunas costeras y el mar, donde la ocurrencia de Proliferaciones de Algas Nocivas es cada vez más frecuente, se realizan un inventario general de las especies más abundantes del fitoplancton y se llevan a cabo análisis extensivos de la toxicidad. La mayoría de especies de dinoflagelados encontradas son potencialmente nocivas. Hay pocas especies en común entre el mar y las lagunas, sin embargo, existen especies productoras de PANs características de los ambientes lagunares.
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It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.
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Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. In this article, a new deterministic model is introduced which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the four major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in freshwaters: light, nutrients, temperature and river flow. The model consists of two sub-models: a vertical migration model with respect to growth of cyanobacteria in relation to light, nutrients and temperature; and a hydraulic model to simulate the horizontal movement of the bloom. This article presents the model algorithms and highlights some important model results. The effects of nutrient limitation, varying illumination and river flow characteristics on cyanobacterial movement are simulated. The results indicate that under high light intensities and in nutrient-rich waters colonies sink further as a result of carbohydrate accumulation in the cells. In turbulent environments, vertical migration is retarded by vertical velocity component generated by turbulent shear stress. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.
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Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.
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This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.
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Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.
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The Um Sohryngkew section of Meghalaya, NE India, located 800–1000 km from the Deccan volcanic province, is one of the most complete Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary (KTB) transitions worldwide with all defining and supporting criteria present: mass extinction of planktic foraminifera, first appearance of Danian species, δ13C shift, Ir anomaly (12 ppb) and KTB red layer. The geochemical signature of the KTB layer indicates not only an extraterrestrial signal (Ni and all Platinum Group Elements (PGEs)) of a second impact that postdates Chicxulub, but also a significant component resulting from condensed sedimentation (P), redox fluctuations (As, Co, Fe, Pb, Zn, and to a lesser extent Ni and Cu) and volcanism. From the late Maastrichtian C29r into the early Danian, a humid climate prevailed (kaolinite: 40–60%, detrital minerals: 50–80%). During the latest Maastrichtian, periodic acid rains (carbonate dissolution; CIA index: 70–80) associated with pulsed Deccan eruptions and strong continental weathering resulted in mesotrophic waters. The resulting super-stressed environmental conditions led to the demise of nearly all planktic foraminiferal species and blooms (> 95%) of the disaster opportunist Guembelitria cretacea. These data reveal that detrimental marine conditions prevailed surrounding the Deccan volcanic province during the main phase of eruptions in C29r below the KTB. Ultimately these environmental conditions led to regionally early extinctions followed by global extinctions at the KTB.
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The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.