A comparison of international and Australian rating tools for sustainability elements of residential property

The Australian housing sector contributes about a fifth of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions contribute to climate change which leads to an increase in the occurrence or intensity of natural disasters and damage of houses. To ensure housing performance in the face of climate change, various rating tools for residential property have been introduced in different countries. The aim of this paper is to present a preliminary comparison between international and Australian rating tools in terms of purpose, use and sustainability elements for residential property. The methodologies used are to review, classify, compare and identify similarities and differences between rating tools. Two international tools, Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Methodology (BREEAM) (UK) and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design for Homes (LEED-Homes) (USA), will be compared to two Australian tools, Green Star – Multi Unit Residential v1 and EnviroDevelopment. All four rating tools include management, energy, water and material aspects. The findings reveal thirteen elements that fall under three categories: spatial planning, occupants’ health and comfort, and environmental conditions. The variations in different tools may result from differences in local prevailing climate. Not all sustainability elements covered by international rating tools are included in the Australian rating tools. The voluntary nature of the tools implies they are not broadly applied in their respective market and that there is a policy implementation gap. A comprehensive rating tool could be developed in Australia to promote and lessen the confusion about sustainable housing, which in turn assist in improving the supply and demand of sustainable housing.

Positive development and assessment

Purpose – There has been a tendency in sustainability science to be passive. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an alternative positive framework for a more active and direct approach to sustainable design and assessment that de-couples environmental impacts and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – This paper deconstructs some systemic gaps that are critical to sustainability in built environment management processes and tools, and reframes negative “sustainable” decision making and assessment frameworks into their positive counterparts. In particular, it addresses the omission of ecology, design and ethics in development assessment. Findings – Development can be designed to provide ecological gains and surplus “eco-services,” but assessment tools and processes favor business-as-usual. Despite the tenacity of the dominant paradigm (DP) in sustainable development institutionalized by the Brundtland Report over 25 years ago, these omissions are easily corrected. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that the author was unable to find exceptions to the omissions cited here in the extensive literature on urban planning and building assessment tools. However, exceptions prove the rule. The implication is that it is not too late for eco-positive retrofitting of cities to increase natural and social capital. The solutions are just as applicable in places like China and India as the USA, as they pay for themselves. Originality/value – Positive development (PD) is a fundamental paradigm shift that reverses the negative models, methods and metrics of the DP of sustainable development. This paper provides an example of how existing “negative” concepts and practices can be converted into positive ones through a PD prism. Through a new form of bio-physical design, development can be a sustainability solution.

Does size matter? An assessment of quota market evolution and performance in the Great Barrier Reef fin-fish fishery

In fisheries managed using individual transferable quotas (ITQs) it is generally assumed that quota markets are well-functioning, allowing quota to flow on either a temporary or permanent basis to those able to make best use of it. However, despite an increasing number of fisheries being managed under ITQs, empirical assessments of the quota markets that have actually evolved in these fisheries remain scarce. The Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery (CRFFF) on the Great Barrier Reef has been managed under a system of ITQs since 2004. Data on individual quota holdings and trades for the period 2004-2012 were used to assess the CRFFF quota market and its evolution through time. Network analysis was applied to assess market structure and the nature of lease-trading relationships. An assessment of market participants’ abilities to balance their quota accounts, i.e., gap analysis, provided insights into market functionality and how this may have changed in the period observed. Trends in ownership and trade were determined, and market participants were identified as belonging to one out of a set of seven generalized types. The emergence of groups such as investors and lease-dependent fishers is clear. In 2011-2012, 41% of coral trout quota was owned by participants that did not fish it, and 64% of total coral trout landings were made by fishers that owned only 10% of the quota. Quota brokers emerged whose influence on the market varied with the bioeconomic conditions of the fishery. Throughout the study period some quota was found to remain inactive, implying potential market inefficiencies. Contribution to this inactivity appeared asymmetrical, with most residing in the hands of smaller quota holders. The importance of transaction costs in the operation of the quota market and the inequalities that may result are discussed in light of these findings

Enhancing information about sustainability features for sustainable housing delivery

Sustainability practices in government regulations and within the society influence the delivery of sustainable housing. The actual delivery rate of Australian sustain-able housing is not as high as other countries. There is an absence of engagement by stakeholders in adopting sustainable housing practices. This may be due, in the current Australian property market, to confusion as to what sustainability features should be considered, given the large range of environmental, economic and social sustainability options possible. One of the main problems appears to be that information demanders, especially real estate agents, valuers, insurance agents and mortgage lenders do not include sustainability perspectives in their advice or in their decision processes. Information distribution in the Australian property market is flawed, resulting in a lack of return-on-investment value of ‘green’ features implemented by some stakeholders. This paper reviewed the global sustainable development concept and Australian sustainable assessment methods. This review identified the possibility of a research project which aimed at identifying and integrating different perceptions and priority needs of the information demanders, for developing a model for the potential implementation of sustainability features distribution in the property industry. This research will reduce confusion on the sustainability-related information which can influence the decision making of stakeholders in the supply and demand of sustainable housing.

Improving SEA procedures within Italian regions: Towards a more effective evaluation of urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development, a major issue at global scale, will become more relevant according to population growth predictions in developed and developing countries. Societal and international recognition of sustainability concerns led to the development of specific tools and procedures, known as sustainability assessments/appraisals (SA). Their effectiveness however, considering that global quality life indicators have worsened since their introduction, has promoted a re-thinking of SA instruments. More precisely, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), – a tool introduced in the European context to evaluate policies, plans, and programmes (PPPs), – is being reconsidered because of several features that seem to limit its effectiveness. Over time, SEA has evolved in response to external and internal factors dealing with technical, procedural, planning and governance systems thus involving a shift of paradigm from EIA-based SEAs (first generation protocols) towards more integrated approaches (second generation ones). Changes affecting SEA are formalised through legislation in each Member State, to guide institutions at regional and local level. Defining SEA effectiveness is quite difficult. Its’ capacity-building process appears quite far from its conclusion, even if any definitive version can be conceptualized. In this paper, we consider some European nations with different planning systems and SA traditions. After the identification of some analytical criteria, a multi-dimensional cluster analysis is developed on some case studies, to outline current weaknesses.

Improving SEA prodedures within Italian regions: Towards a more effective evaluation of urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development, a major issue at global scale, will become more relevant according to population growth predictions in developed and developing countries. Societal and international recognition of sustainability concerns led to the development of specific tools and procedures, known as sustainability assessments/appraisals (SA). Their effectiveness however, considering that global quality life indicators have worsened since their introduction, has promoted a re-thinking of SA instruments. More precisely, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), – a tool introduced in the European context to evaluate policies, plans, and programmes (PPPs), – is being reconsidered because of several features that seem to limit its effectiveness. Over time, SEA has evolved in response to external and internal factors dealing with technical, procedural, planning and governance systems thus involving a shift of paradigm from EIA-based SEAs (first generation protocols) towards more integrated approaches (second generation ones). Changes affecting SEA are formalised through legislation in each Member State, to guide institutions at regional and local level. Defining SEA effectiveness is quite difficult. Its’ capacity-building process appears quite far from its conclusion, even if any definitive version can be conceptualized. In this paper, we consider some European nations with different planning systems and SA traditions. After the identification of some analytical criteria, a multi-dimensional cluster analysis is developed on some case studies, to outline current weaknesses.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Global banana disease management - getting serious with sustainability and food security

Much research in understanding plant diseases has been undertaken, but there has been insufficient attention given to dealing with coordinated approaches to preventing and managing diseases. A global management approach is essential to the long-term sustainability of banana production. This approach would involve coordinated surveys, capacity building in developing countries, development of disease outbreak contingency plans and coordinated quarantine awareness, including on-line training in impact risk assessment and web-based diagnostic software. Free movement of banana plants and products between some banana-producing countries is causing significant pressure on the ability to manage diseases in banana. The rapid spread of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense 'tropical race 4' in Asia, bacterial wilts in Africa and Asia and black leaf streak [Mycosphaerella fijiensis] in Brazil and elsewhere are cases in point. The impact of these diseases is devastating, severely cutting family incomes and jeopardising food security around the globe. Agreements urgently need to be reached between governments to halt the movement of banana plants and products between banana-producing countries before it is too late and global food security is irreparably harmed. Black leaf streak, arguably the most serious banana disease, has become extremely difficult to control in commercial plantations in various parts of the world. Sometimes in excess of 50 fungicide sprays have to be applied each year. Disease eradication and effective disease control is not possible because there is no control of disease inoculum in non-commercial plantings in these locations. Additionally, there have been enormous sums of money invested in international banana breeding programmes over many years only to see the value of hybrid products lost too soon. 'Goldfinger' (AAAB, syn. 'FHIA-01'), for example, has recently been observed severely affected by black leaf streak in Samoa. Resistant cultivars alone cannot be relied upon in the fight against this disease. Real progress in control may only come when the local communities are engaged and become actively involved in regional programmes. Global recommendations are long overdue and urgently needed to help ensure the long-term sustainable utilisation of the products of the breeding programmes.

Nitrogen use for high productivity and sustainability in cashew.

Interest in cashew production in Australia has been stimulated by domestic and export market opportunities and suitability of large areas of tropical Australia. Economic models indicate that cashew production is profitable at 2.8 t ha-1 nut-in-shell (NIS). Balanced plant nutrition is essential to achieve economic yields in Australia, with nitrogen (N) of particular importance because of its capacity to modify growth, affect nut yield and cause environmental degradation through soil acidification and off-site contamination. The study on a commercial cashew plantation at Dimbulah, Australia, investigated the effect of N rate and timing on cashew growth, nut production, N leaching and soil chemical properties over five growth cycles (1995-1999). Nitrogen was applied during the main periods of vegetative (December-April) and reproductive (June-October) growth. Commercial NIS yields (up to 4.4 t ha-1 from individual trees) that exceeded the economic threshold of 2.8 t ha-1 were achieved. The yield response was mainly determined by canopy size as mean nut weight, panicle density and nuts per panicle were largely unaffected by N treatments. Nitrogen application confined to the main period of vegetative growth (December-April) produced a seasonal growth pattern that corresponded most consistently with highest NIS yield. This N timing also reduced late season flowering and undesirable post-November nut drop. Higher yields were not produced at N rates greater than 17 g m-2 of canopy surface area (equating to 210 kg N ha-1 for mature size trees). High yields were attained when N concentrations in Mveg leaves in May-June were about 2%, but this assessment occurs at a time when it is not feasible to correct N deficiency. The Mflor leaf of the preceding November, used in conjunction with the Mveg leaf, was proposed as a diagnostic tool to guide N rate decisions. Leaching of nitrate-N and acidification of the soil profile was recorded to 0.9 m. This is an environmental and sustainability hazard, and demonstrates that improved methods of N management are required.

Regenerative sustainability for the built environment – from vision to reality: An introductory chapter

Regenerative sustainability is emerging as an alternative discourse around the transition from a ‘mechanistic’ to an ‘ecological’ or living systems worldview. This view helps us to re-conceptualize relationships among humans’ technological, ecological, economic, social and political systems. Through exploration of ‘net positive’ or ‘regenerative’ development lenses and the traditional sustainability literature, the conceptualization and approaches to achieve sustainable development and ecological modernization are expanded to articulate and to explore the evolving sustainability discourse, ‘regenerative sustainability’. This Special Volume of Journal of Cleaner Production (SV) is focused upon various dimensions of regenerative sustainability (e.g. regenerative design, regenerative development, and positive development) applied to the urban built environment at scales, which range from individual buildings, neighborhoods, and urban developments to integrated regional sustainable development. The main focus is on how these approaches and developments are evolving, how they can help us to prevent or adapt to climate change and how these approaches are likely to evolve in the next two to three decades. These approaches are addressed in four themes: (1) reviewing the theoretical development of the discourse of regenerative sustainability, its emerging principles and practices, (2) explaining how it can be measured and monitored, (3) providing encouraging practical pathways and examples of its implementation in multiple cultural and climatic contexts, and (4) mapping obstacles and enablers that must be addressed to help to ensure that more rapid progress is made in implementing the transitions towards an urban built environment that supports genuinely sustainable societies.

Harvest strategy evaluation to optimise the sustainability and value of the Queensland scallop fishery. Queensland scallop fishery - FRDC Project No 2006/024 Final Report

Objective 1. Measure spatial and temporal trawl frequency of scallop grounds using VMS data. This will provide a relative measure of how often individual undersized scallops are caught and put through a tumbler 2. Estimate discard mortality and growth rates for saucer scallops using cage experiments. 3. Evaluate the current management measures, in particular the seasonal closure, rotational closure and seasonally varying minimum legal sizes using stock assessment and management modeling models. Recommend optimal range of management measures to ensure long-term viability and value of the Scallop fishery based on a formal management strategy evaluation. Outcomes acheived to date: 1. Improved understanding of the survival rates of discarded sub-legal scallops; 2. Preliminary von Bertalanffy growth parameters using data from tagged-and-released scallops; 3. Changing trends in vessels and fishing gear used in the Queensland scallop fishery and their effect on scallop catch rates over time using standardised catch rates quantified; 4. Increases in fishing power of vessels operating in the Queensland scallop fishery quantified; 5. Trawl intensity mapped and quantified for all Scallop Replenishment Areas; 6. Harvest Strategy Evaluations completed.

Biomass for aviation fuel production in the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland: a preliminary assessment of native and plantation forest potential

SummaryThis scoping study assesses the contribution that woody biomass could make to feedstock supply for an aviation biofuel industry in Queensland. The inland 600?900 mm rainfall zone, including the Fitzroy Basin region, is identified as an area that is particularly worthy of closer study as it has potential for supply of woody biomass from existing native regrowth (brigalow and other species) as well as from new plantings. New analyses carried out for this study of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata trials suggest biomass plantings could produce harvestable yield of aboveground dry mass of about 85 t ha?1 over a 10-year rotation at relatively low-rainfall (600?750 mm mean annual precipitation) sites and about 115 t ha?1 at medium-rainfall (750?900 mm) sites. Estimates of productivity for native regrowth suggest potential productivity should be around 40 t ha?1 during the initial decade after clearing when systems are managed for bioenergy rather than grazing. In this paper, potential production systems are described, and sustainability issues are briefly considered. It is concluded that more detailed studies focused particularly on biomass production would be worthwhile, and further research requirements are briefly discussed.

Assessing the integrated sustainability of a public rental housing project from the perspective of complex eco-system

Public rental housing (PRH) projects are the mainstream of China's new affordable housing policies, and their integrated sustainability has a far-reaching effect on medium-low income families' well-being and social stability. However, there are few quantitative researches on the integrated sustainability of PRH projects. Our study tries to fill this gap through proposing an assessment model of the integrated sustainability for PRH projects. First, this paper defines what the sustainability of a PRH project is. Second, after constructing the sustainable system of a PRH project from the perspective of complex eco-system, the paper explores the internal operation mechanism and the coupling mechanism among the ecological, economic and social subsystems. Third, it identifies fourteen indices to represent the sustainability system of a PRH project, including six indices of ecological subsystem, five of economic subsystem and three of social subsystem. Fourth, it qualifies the weights of three subsystems and their internal representative indices. In addition, an assessment model is established through expert surveys and analytic network process (ANP). Finally, the paper carries out an empirical research on a PRH project in Nanjing city of China, followed by suggestions to enhance the integrated sustainability. The sustainability system and its evaluation model proposed in this paper are concise and easy to understand and can provide a theoretical foundation and a scientific basis for the evaluation and optimization of PRH projects.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.