Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Mineralogical and geochemical data from five lake sediment cores of Lake Donggi Cona

Sediments of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19 kyr. The lake today fills a 30 X 8 km big and 95 m deep tectonic basin, associated with the Kunlun Fault. The study was conducted on a sediment-core transect through the lake basin, in order to gain a complete picture of spatiotemporal environmental change. The recovered sediments are partly finely laminated and are composed of calcareous muds with variable amounts of carbonate micrite, organic matter, detrital silt and clay. On the basis of sedimentological, geochemical, and mineralogical data up to five lithological units (LU) can be distinguished that document distinct stages in the development of the lake system. The onset of the lowermost LU with lacustrine muds above basal sands indicates that lake level was at least 39 m below the present level and started to rise after 19 ka, possibly in response to regional deglaciation. At this time, the lacustrine environment was characterized by detrital sediment influx and the deposition of siliciclastic sediment. In two sediment cores, upward grain-size coarsening documents a lake-level fall after 13 cal ka BP, possibly associated with the late-glacial Younger Dryas stadial. From 11.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP, grainsize fining in sediment cores from the profundal coring sites and the onset of lacustrine deposition at a litoral core site (2m water depth) in a recent marginal bay of Donggi Cona document lake-level rise during the early tomid-Holocene to at least modern level. In addition, high biological productivity and pronounced precipitation of carbonate micrites are consistent with warm and moist climate conditions related to an enhanced influence of summer monsoon. At 4.3 cal ka BP the lake system shifted from an aragonite- to a calcite-dominated system, indicating a change towards a fully open hydrological lake system. The younger clay-rich sediments are moreover non-laminated and lack any diagenetic sulphides, pointing to fully ventilated conditions, and the prevailing absence of lake stratification. This turning point in lake history could imply either a threshold response to insolation-forced climate cooling or a response to a non-climatic trigger, such as an erosional event or a tectonic pulse that induced a strong earthquake, which is difficult to decide from our data base.

Sedimentology on 19 cores from the South China Sea

Based on the study of 10 sediment cores and 40 core-top samples from the South China Sea (SCS) we obtained proxy records of past changes in East Asian monsoon climate on millennial to bidecadal time scales over the last 220,000 years. Climate proxies such as global sea level, estimates of paleotemperature, salinity, and nutrients in surface water, ventilation of deep water, paleowind strength, freshwater lids, fluvial and/or eolian sediment supply, and sediment winnowing on the sea floor were derived from planktonic and benthic stable-isotope records, the distribution of siliciclastic grain sizes, planktonic foraminifera species, and the UK37 biomarker index. Four cores were AMS-14C-dated. Two different regimes of monsoon circulation dominated the SCS over the last two glacial cycles, being linked to the minima and maxima of Northern Hemisphere solar insolation. (1) Glacial stages led to a stable estuarine circulation and a strong O2-minimum layer via a closure of the Borneo sea strait. Strong northeast monsoon and cool surface water occurred during winter, in part fed by an inflow from the north tip of Luzon. In contrast, summer temperatures were as high as during interglacials, hence the seasonality was strong. Low wetness in subtropical South China was opposed to large river input from the emerged Sunda shelf, serving as glacial refuge for tropical forest. (2) Interglacials were marked by a strong inflow of warm water via the Borneo sea strait, intense upwelling southeast of Vietnam and continental wetness in China during summer, weaker northeast monsoon and high sea-surface temperatures during winter, i.e. low seasonality. On top of the long-term variations we found millennial- to centennial-scale cold and dry, warm and humid spells during the Holocene, glacial Terminations I and II, and Stage 3. The spells were coeval with published variations in the Indian monsoon and probably, with the cold Heinrich and warm Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores, thus suggesting global climatic teleconnections. Holocene oscillations in the runoff from South China centered around periodicities of 775 years, ascribed to subharmonics of the 1500-year cycle in oceanic thermohaline circulation. 102/84-year cycles are tentatively assigned to the Gleissberg period of solar activity. Phase relationships among various monsoon proxies near the onset of Termination IA suggest that summer-monsoon rains and fluvial runoff from South China had already intensified right after the last glacial maximum (LGM) insolation minimum, coeval with the start of Antarctic ice melt, prior to the d18O signals of global sea-level rise. Vice versa, the strength of winter-monsoon winds decreased in short centennial steps only 3000-4000 years later, along with the melt of glacial ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere.

(Table 1) Age model of sediment core MD03-2705

A reconstruction of northwest African summer monsoon strength during the cold marine isotopic stage (MIS) 6 indicates a link to the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). High-resolution studies of eolian dust supply and sea surface temperature recorded in marine core MD03-2705, on the Mauritanian margin, provide a better understanding about the penultimate glacial history of northwestern African aridity/humidity and upwelling coastal activity. Today, site MD03-2705 experiences increased upwelling and dust flux during the winter months, when the ITCZ is in a southerly position. Analyses of foraminifera isotopic composition suggest that during MIS 6.5 (180-168 ka) the average position of the ITCZ migrated north, marked by an increase in the strength of the summer monsoon, which decreased eolian dust transport and the coastal upwelling activity. The northward migration is in phase with a specific orbital combination of a low precessional index with a high obliquity signal. High-resolution analysis of stable isotopes (d18O and d13C) and microscale resolution geochemical (Ti/Al and quartz grain counts) determinations reveal that the transition between monsoonal humid (MIS 6.5) and dry (MIS 6.4) conditions has occurred in less than 1.3 ka. Such rapid changes suggest a nonlinear link between the African monsoonal rainfall system and environmental changes over the continent. This study provides new insights about the influence of vegetation and oceanic temperature feedbacks on the onset of African summer monsoon and demonstrates that, during the penultimate glacial period, changes in tropical dynamics had regional and global impacts.

(Table 1) Age control points of ODP Site 160-968

The astronomical timescale of the Eastern Mediterranean Plio-Pleistocene builds on tuning of sapropel layers to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. A 3000-year precession lag has become instrumental in the tuning procedure as radiocarbon dating revealed that the midpoint of the youngest sapropel, S1, in the early Holocene occurred approximately 3000 years after the insolation maximum. The origin of the time lag remains elusive, however, because sapropels are generally linked to maximum African monsoon intensities and transient climate modeling results indicate an in-phase behavior of the African monsoon relative to precession forcing. Here we present new high-resolution records of bulk sediment geochemistry and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes from ODP Site 968 in the Eastern Mediterranean. We show that the 3000-year precession time lag of the sapropel midpoints is consistent with (1) the global marine isotope chronology, (2) maximum (monsoonal) precipitation conditions in the Mediterranean region and China derived from radiometrically dated speleothem records, and (3) maximum atmospheric methane concentrations in Antarctica ice cores. We show that the time lag relates to the occurrence of precession-paced North Atlantic cold events, which systematically delayed the onset of strong boreal summer monsoon intensity. Our findings may also explain a non-stationary behavior of the African monsoon over the past 3 million years due to more frequent and intensive cold events in the Late Pleistocene.

Sedimentology on a core from Lonar Lake in India

Concerns about the regional impact of global climate change in a warming scenario have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, also referred to as the Indian Ocean summer monsoon) and the absence of long term palaeoclimate data from the central Indian core monsoon zone (CMZ). Here we present the first high resolution, well-dated, multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene palaeoclimate from a 10 m long sediment core raised from the Lonar Lake in central India. We show that while the early Holocene onset of intensified monsoon in the CMZ is similar to that reported from other ISM records, the Lonar data shows two prolonged droughts (PD, multidecadal to centennial periods of weaker monsoon) between 4.6-3.9 and 2-0.6 cal?ka. A comparison of our record with available data from other ISM influenced sites shows that the impact of these PD was observed in varying degrees throughout the ISM realm and coincides with intervals of higher solar irradiance. We demonstrate that (i) the regional warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) plays an important role in causing ISM PD through changes in meridional overturning circulation and position of the anomalous Walker cell; (ii) the long term influence of conditions like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the ISM began only ca. 2 cal?ka BP and is coincident with the warming of the southern IPWP; (iii) the first settlements in central India coincided with the onset of the first PD and agricultural populations flourished between the two PD, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and PD as major environmental factors affecting human settlements.

Mid-late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and delta O-18 records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula, northern coast of South China Sea

South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and delta(18)O data for five Holocene and one modem Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9-13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from similar to 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca-SST in the 1990s (24.8 degrees C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca-SSTs were 0.9-0.5 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by similar to 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 degrees C (2.2 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca-SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1-2 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by -2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 degrees C (0.7 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater delta(18)O values, reflected by offsets of mean 6 180 relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions similar to 2.5 and similar to 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 degrees C warmer than that similar to 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core AAS-62/2

Variations in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity during the last 16.7?ka have been studied using organic carbon (Corg), d15N of sedimentary organic matter, CaCO3, sediment texture, d18OC, and Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature, d18O of sea water and sea surface salinity, in a 14C-dated sediment core from the eastern Arabian Sea. The d18O in water and planktonic foraminifera shells off the central west coast of India may be controlled by the ISM intensity as this area receives high precipitation and land runoff. Also, the Corg and CaCO3 contents of sediments and d15N of sedimentary organic matter may be linked to ISM-induced productivity and denitrification. The results of the present study reveal that between 16 and 15.2 ka BP, the ISM was weak with minor fluctuations and started intensifying around 15.2 ka BP, at the onset of the Bølling-Ållerød (B-A) event. The B-A event is characterized by higher water column denitrification rates comparable to the present day. The ISM signatures observed in the d18OC record of B-A event compare well with those from Timta cave of the western Himalayas and also the Asian summer monsoon signatures from the Hulu caves in China and warming signatures in Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) suggesting atmospheric teleconnections through Intertropical Convergence Zone. The boundary between the Younger Dryas and the Holocene is discernible with small episodes of abrupt events of increased ISM intensity. This decrease in d18OC values at ~11.8 ka BP is contemporary with June solar insolation maximum at 30° north and the increase in methane in the GISP2 ice core supporting episodes of warmer climate and increase in ISM intensity. The ISM seems to have been most stable between 7 and 5.6 ka BP. The core exhibits periodicity of 500 years that is comparable to the Atlantic water formation and the Chinese monsoon.

ACIAR Feasibility of farmers managing climate related crop production risk in India

Validation of new Indian seasonal climate forecasting products. In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) kharif crops are heavily dependent on summer monsoon rains, where the timing and intensity of the rains affects crop yield. The majority of farms in AP are small and marginal, making them very vulnerable to yield reductions. Farmers also lack access to relevant information that might enable them to respond to seasonal conditions. Enabling farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecasting would allow them to respond to seasonal variability. To do this, farmers need a forecasting system that indicates a specific management strategy for the upcoming season, and effective and timely communication of the forecast information. Current agro-meteorological advisories in AP are issued on a bi-weekly basis, and they are relevant to an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a village level. Also, the information in the advisories may not be necessarily packaged in way relevant to cropping decisions by farmers. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the skill of seasonal climate forecasts to be issued for the 2008 monsoon season, to assess crop management options in response to seasonal scenarios that capture the range of seasonal climatic variability, to develop and evaluate options for effective communication and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories, and to synthesise and report on options for future research investments into seasonal climate forecasting.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Rainfall changes over tropical montane cloud forests of southern Western Ghats, India

The southern Western Ghats tropical montane cloud forest sites (Gavi, Periyar, High wavys and Venniyar), which are characterized by frequent or seasonal cloud cover at the vegetation level, are considered one of the most threatened ecosystems in India and the world. Three out of four montane cloud forest sites studied in the southern Western Ghats had experienced diminishing trends of seasonal average and total rainfall, especially during summer monsoon season. The highest level of reduction for summer monsoon season was observed at Gavi rainforest station (>20 mm/14 years) in Kerala followed by Venniyar (>20 mm/20 years) site in Tamil Nadu. Average annual and total precipitation increased during the study period irrespective of the seasons over Periyar area, and the greatest values were recorded for season 2 (>25 mm/28 years). Positive trends for winter monsoon rainfall has been observed for three stations (Periyar, High wavys and Venniyar) except Gavi, and the trend was positive and significant (90%) for Periyar and High wavys. Increase in summer monsoon rainfall was observed for Periyar site and the trend was found to be significant (95%).

Intraseasonal response of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the Bay of Bengal to heat and freshwater flux

Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime Bay of Bengal. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from three Argo floats with 5 day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal. About 95% of Argo profiles show a shallow halocline, with substantial variability of mixed layer salinity. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to lateral advection rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. Large fluctuations in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Impact of physical processes on the chlorophyll distribution in the Bay of Bengal

Satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (chl a) maps show three regions with high chl a in the Bay of Bengal. First among these is close to the coast, particularly off river mouths, with high values coinciding with the season of peak discharge; second is in the southwestern bay during the northeast monsoon, which is forced by local Ekman pumping; and the third is to the east of Sri Lanka in response to the summer monsoon winds. Chlorophyll-rich water from the mouths of rivers flows either along the coast or in an offshore direction, up to several hundred kilometers, depending on the prevailing ocean current pattern. The Irrawady River plume flows toward offshore and then turns northwestward during October–December, but it flows along the coast into the Andaman Sea for the rest of the year. From the Ganga-Brahmaputra river mouth, chl a–rich water flows directly southward into the open bay during spring but along the Indian coast during summer and winter. Along the Indian coast, the flow of chl a–rich water is determined by the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Whenever the EICC meanders off the Indian coast, it leads to an offshore outbreak of chl a–rich water from the coastal region into open ocean. The EICC as well as open ocean circulation in the bay is made up of several eddies, and these eddies show relatively higher chl a. Eddies near the coast, however, can often have higher chl a because of advection from the coastal region rather than generation within the eddy itself. The bay experiences several cyclones in a year, most of them occurring during October–November. These cyclones cause a drop in the sea surface temperature, a dip in the sea level, and a local increase in chl a. The impact of a cyclone is weaker in the northern part of the bay because of stronger stratification compared to the southern parts.