Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

The aim of this study was, within a sensitivity analysis framework, to determine if additional model complexity gives a better capability to model the hydrology and nitrogen dynamics of a small Mediterranean forested catchment or if the additional parameters cause over-fitting. Three nitrogen-models of varying hydrological complexity were considered. For each model, general sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) were applied, each based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results highlighted the most complex structure as the most appropriate, providing the best representation of the non-linear patterns observed in the flow and streamwater nitrate concentrations between 1999 and 2002. Its 5% and 95% GLUE bounds, obtained considering a multi-objective approach, provide the narrowest band for streamwater nitrogen, which suggests increased model robustness, though all models exhibit periods of inconsistent good and poor fits between simulated outcomes and observed data. The results confirm the importance of the riparian zone in controlling the short-term (daily) streamwater nitrogen dynamics in this catchment but not the overall flux of nitrogen from the catchment. It was also shown that as the complexity of a hydrological model increases over-parameterisation occurs, but the converse is true for a water quality model where additional process representation leads to additional acceptable model simulations. Water quality data help constrain the hydrological representation in process-based models. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry.

The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) plays a key role in eutrophication, a global problem decreasing habitat quality and in-stream biodiversity. Mitigation strategies are required to prevent SRP fluxes from exceeding critical levels, and must be robust in the face of potential changes in climate, land use and a myriad of other influences. To establish the longevity of these strategies it is therefore crucial to consider the sensitivity of catchments to multiple future stressors. This study evaluates how the water quality and hydrology of a major river system in the UK (the River Thames) respond to alterations in climate, land use and water resource allocations, and investigates how these changes impact the relative performance of management strategies over an 80-year period. In the River Thames, the relative contributions of SRP from diffuse and point sources vary seasonally. Diffuse sources of SRP from agriculture dominate during periods of high runoff, and point sources during low flow periods. SRP concentrations rose under any future scenario which either increased a) surface runoff or b) the area of cultivated land. Under these conditions, SRP was sourced from agriculture, and the most effective single mitigation measures were those which addressed diffuse SRP sources. Conversely, where future scenarios reduced flow e.g. during winters of reservoir construction, the significance of point source inputs increased, and mitigation measures addressing these issues became more effective. In catchments with multiple point and diffuse sources of SRP, an all-encompassing effective mitigation approach is difficult to achieve with a single strategy. In order to attain maximum efficiency, multiple strategies might therefore be employed at different times and locations, to target the variable nature of dominant SRP sources and pathways.

High-frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics, primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river-system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub-daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190,000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Though 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in-stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Astyanax bockmanni Vari and Castro, 2007: an ambiguous karyotype in the Astyanax genus

Despite the widespread distribution of Astyanax bockmanni in streams from Upper Parana River system in central, southeastern, and southern Brazil, just recently, it has been identified as a distinct Astyanax species. Cytogenetic studies were performed in two populations of this species, revealing conservative features. A. bockmanni shows 2n = 50 chromosomes, a karyotypic formula composed of 10 M + 12SM + 12ST + 16A and multiple Ag-NORs. Eight positive signals in subtelocentric/acrocentric chromosomes were identified by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) with 18S rDNA probes. After FISH with 5S rDNA probes, four sites were detected, comprising the interstitial region of a metacentric pair and the terminal region on long arms of another metracentric pair. Little amounts of constitutive heterochromatin were observed, mainly distributed at distal region in two chromosomal pairs. Additionally, heterochromatin was also located close to the centromeres in some chromosomes. No positive signals were detected in the chromosomes of A. bockmanni by FISH with the As-51 satellite DNA probe. The studied species combines a set of characteristics previously identified in two different Astyanax groups. The chromosomal evolution in the genus Astyanax is discussed.

Evolution of a rift basin dominated by subaerial deposits: The Guaritas Rift, Early Cambrian, Southern Brazil

Most existing models for the evolution of rift basins predict the development of deep-water depositional systems during the stage of greatest tectonic subsidence, when accommodation generation potentially outpaces sedimentation. Despite this, some rift basins do not present deep-water systems, instead being dominated by subaerial deposits. This paper focuses on one of these particular rift basins, the Cambrian Guaritas Rift, Southern Brazil, characterized by more than 1500 m of alluvial and aeolian strata deposited in a 50-km-wide basin. The deposits of the Guaritas Rift can be ascribed to four depositional systems: basin-border alluvial fans, bedload-dominated ephemeral rivers, mixed-load ephemeral rivers and aeolian dune fields. These four systems are in part coeval and in part succeed each other, forming three stages of basin evolution: (i) Rift Initiation to Early Rift Climax stage, (ii) Mid to Late Rift Climax stage, and (iii) Early Post-Rift stage. The first stage comprises most of the Guaritas Group and is characterized by homogeneous bed-load-dominated river deposits, which do not clearly record the evolution of subsidence rates. The onset of sedimentation of finer-grained deposits occurred as a consequence of a reactivation event that changed the outline of the basin and the distribution of the nearby highlands. This strongly suggests that the capture of the main river system to another depression decreased the sediment supply to the basin. The study of the Guaritas Rift indicates that rift basins in which the sediment supply exceeds the accommodation generation occur as a consequence of moderate subsidence combined with the capture of a major river system to the basin during the initial stages of basin evolution. In these basins, changes in the average discharge of the river system or tectonic modification of the drainage network may be the major control on the stratigraphic architecture. (c) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Neoproterozoic BIF-bearing Jacadigo Group, SW-Brazil

The Jacadigo Group contains one of the largest sedimentary iron and associated manganese deposits of the Neoproterozoic. Despite its great relevance, no detailed sedimentological study concerning the unit has been carried out to date. Here we present detailed sedimentological data and interpretation on depositional systems, system tracts, external controls on basin evolution, basin configuration and regional tectonic setting of the Jacadigo Basin. Six depositional systems were recognized: (I) an alluvial fan system; (II) a siliciclastic lacustrine system; (III) a fan-delta system; (IV) a bedload-dominated river system; (V) an iron formation-dominated lacustrine or marine gulf system; and (VI) a rimmed carbonate platform system. The interpreted depositional systems are related to three tectonic system tracts. The first four depositional systems are mainly made of continental siliciclastics and refer to the rift initiation to early rift climax stage; the lake/gulf system corresponds to the mid to late rift climax stage and the carbonate platform represents the immediate to late post rift stage (Bocaina Formation deposits of the Ediacaran fossil-bearing Corumba Group). The spatial distribution of the depositional systems and associated paleocurrent patterns indicate a WNW-ESE orientation of the master fault zone related to the formation of the Jacadigo Basin. Thus, the iron formations of the Jacadigo Group were deposited in a starved waterbody related to maximum fault displacement and accommodation rates in a restricted continental rift basin. The Fe-Si-Mn source was probably related to hydrothermal plume activity that reached the basin through the fault system during maximum fault displacement phases. Our results also suggest a restricted tectono-sedimentary setting for the type section of the Puga Formation. The Jacadigo Group and the Puga Formation, usually interpreted as glacial deposits, are readdressed here as basin margin gravitational deposits with no necessary relation to glacial processes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Avaliação operacional do controle mecânico de plantas aquáticas imersas no reservatório de Jupiá

O presente trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de estudar a coleta e o descarte de plantas aquáticas em diferentes locais e infestações do sistema Tietê/Paraná, no reservatório de Jupiá. A operação foi realizada com auxílio de instrumentação instalada em uma colhedora de plantas aquáticas, com sistema de GPS dotado de sinal de correção diferencial. Os tempos gastos para carregar e descarregar a colhedora foram determinados por cronometragem, e a distância do ponto final de coleta ao ponto de descarte e o tempo de deslocamento, por cronometragem e uso de GPS convencional. em algumas coletas foram demarcados polígonos, instruindo-se o operador a trabalhar exclusivamente na área correspondente. A interpretação dos resultados permitiu determinar a participação do tempo de coleta em relação ao tempo total de operação, indicando um valor significativo do ponto de vista operacional (>70%). Considerando o descarte em áreas infestadas com taboa, o deslocamento total médio foi de apenas 383 m, com gasto médio de 200,96 s. Os valores de capacidade operacional da colhedora oscilaram entre 0,23 e 1,60 ha h-1, indicando valor médio de 4,48 ha dia-1. A maior limitação à capacidade operacional associou-se à velocidade média de deslocamento, com maior agravante em áreas com altas infestações ou profundas. Considerando-se o deslocamento da colhedora, houve grande dificuldade de orientação em condições normais de operação, inviabilizando a manutenção de espaçamentos uniformes entre as faixas de coleta e sobrepondo as passagens. Conclui-se que a avaliação operacional indicou a impossibilidade de operar a colhedora sem o auxílio de um sistema de navegação que permita orientar a sua movimentação nas áreas de controle.

Zoogeography of Chiropotes albinasus (Platyrrhini, Atelidae) in southwestern Amazonia

White-nosed bearded sakis (Chiropotes albinasus) are endemic to the Madeira-Xingu interfluvium in southern Amazonia, though recent fieldwork has produced conflicting data on the southwestern limits of the species's geographic range. We reevaluated the distribution of bearded sakis on the basis of surveys from 34 sites throughout the Brazilian state of Rondonia. Chiropotes albinasus occurred at seven sites in the eastern part of the state, including two west of the Jiparana-Pimenta Bueno river system in the extreme south, but there is no record of their presence further north and west in the Jiparana-Guapore interfluvium and they were absent from the Jiparana-Mamore interfluvium. The data suggest that ecological, rather than geographic barriers restrict the distribution of Chiropotes albinasus in southern Rondonia, but are contradictory with regard to the possible determining factors. Chiropotes albinasus appears able to thrive in transitional, savanna-like ecosystems in southern Rondonia, but is unexpectedly absent from adjacent areas of terra firme forest. Syntopy with the only other pitheciine found in the state (Pithecia irrorata) appears to have a negative effect on the abundance of Chiropotes albinasus which implies that interspecific competition may reinforce a complex of limiting factors, such as the availability of key plant species. Despite showing that Chiropotes albinasus is widespread in southern Rondonia, we also confirm its absence from the western two thirds of the state, a significant reduction in the known range of the species.

Coptobrycon bilineatus (Ellis, 1911) (Characiformes: Characidae): redescription and comments on its phylogenetic relationships

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mutilating predation in the Cheirodontinae Odontostilbe pequira (Characiformes: Characidae)

We observed individuals of Odontostilbe pequira, a small characid, approaching and biting individuals of larger-bodied fishes of other species. This observation was made in two clear water headwater streams of the Cuiaba basin, Paraguay River system, located in Nobres, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, which led us to investigate the behavioral interactions of these fish. We characterized behavioral interactions between species by direct underwater observations using snorkelling and video recordings. Additionally, we proceeded diet analyses of O. pequira, obtaining intestinal coefficient and the index of alimentary importance. During underwater observations we checked the relative frequency of attacks by O. pequira on larger fish species. Odontostilbe pequira attacked individually or in large groups, and the anostomid Leporinus friderici was the preferred target prey species, while Prochilodus lineatus was apparently avoided. Our study sustains that O. pequira is omnivorous, with a diet that varies seasonally. It feeds mainly on plants, but also on animal prey, including the scales of small fishes, and, possibly, the mucus and epidermis of larger fish species. We suggest the term "mutilating predation" to describe the latter relationship.

Oportunismo alimentar de Knodus moenkhausii (Teleostei, Characidae): uma espécie abundante em riachos do noroeste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ichthyofauna of the rio Itatinga in the Parque das Neblinas, Bertioga, São Paulo State: composition and biogeography

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)