L’évaluation du risque en fonction de l’âge : l’efficacité de l’évaluation structurée dans la prédiction de la récidive

Huit instruments d’évaluation du risque ont été appliqués sur 580 délinquants sexuels. Il s’agit du VRAG, du SORAG, du RRASOR, de la Statique-99, de la Statique-2002, du RM-2000, du MnSORT-R et du SVR-20. De plus, les sujets ont été cotés sur la PCL-R, qui vise la mesure de la psychopathie, mais qui a fait ses preuves en matière de prédiction de la récidive (Gendreau, Little, et Goggin, 1996). En vue de mesurer l’efficacité de ces instruments et de la PCL-R, une période de suivi de 25 ans a été observée. Aussi, une division de l’échantillon a été faite par rapport à l’âge au moment de la libération, afin de mesurer les différences entre les délinquants âgés de 34 ans et moins et ceux de 35 ans et plus. Le présent travail vise à répondre à trois objectifs de recherche, soit 1) Décrire l’évolution du risque en fonction de l’âge, 2) Étudier le lien entre l’âge, le type de délinquant et la récidive et 3) Comparer l’efficacité de neuf instruments structurés à prédire quatre types de récidive en fonction de l’âge. Les résultats de l’étude suggèrent que l’âge influence le niveau de risque représenté par les délinquants. Par ailleurs, les analyses des différents types de récidive indiquent que le type de victime privilégié par les délinquants influence également ce niveau de risque. Les implications théoriques et pratiques seront discutées.

Computational models for the prediction of severe thunderstorms over east indian region

Thunderstorm is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. Many parts over the Indian region experience thunderstorms at higher frequency during pre-monsoon months (March- May), when the atmosphere is highly unstable because of high temperatures prevailing at lower levels. Most dominant feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the eastern Indo-Gangetic plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’wester’ or ‘Kalbaishakhi’. The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall line, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agriculture, damage to structure and also loss of life. The casualty due to lightning associated with thunderstorms in this region is the highest in the world. The highest numbers of aviation hazards are reported during occurrence of these thunderstorms. In India, 72% of tornadoes are associated with this thunderstorm.

Microphytoplankton community structure in the North Eastern Arabian Sea during Winter Monsoon

The overall attempt of the study was aimed to understand the microphytoplankton community composition and its variations along a highly complex and dynamic marine ecosystem, the northern Arabian Sea. The data generated provides a first of its kind knowledge on the major primary producers of the region. There appears significant response among the microphytoplankton community structure towards the variations in the hydrographic conditions during the winter monsoon period. Interannually, variations were observed within the microphytoplankton community associated with the variability in temperature patterns and the intensity of convective mixing. Changing bloom pattern and dominating species among the phytoplankton community open new frontiers and vistas towards more intense study on the biological responses towards physical processes. The production of large amount of organic matter as a result of intense blooming of Noctiluca as well as diatoms aggregations augment the particulate organic substances in these ecosystem. This definitely influences the carbon dynamics of the northern Arabian Sea. Detailed investigations based on time series as well as trophodynamic studies are necessary to elucidate the carbon flux and associated impacts of winter-spring blooms in NEAS. Arabian sea is considered as one among the hotspot for carbon dynamics and the pioneering records on the major primary producers fuels carbon based export production studies and provides a platform for future research. Moreover upcoming researches based on satellite based remote sensing on productivity patterns utilizes these insitu observations and taxonomic data sets of phytoplankton for validation of bloom specific algorithm development and its implementation. Furthermore Saurashtra coast is considered as a major fishing zone of Indian EEZ. The studies on the phytoplankton in these regions provide valuable raw data for fishery prediction models and identifying fishing zones. With the Summary and Conclusion 177 baseline data obtained further trophodynamic studies can be initiated in the complex productive North Eastern Arabian Seas (NEAS) ecosystem that is still remaining unexplored.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Arthropod diversity and community structure in relation to land use in the mekong delta, vietnam

Declining biodiversity in agro-ecosystems, caused by intensification of production or expansion of monocultures, is associated with the emergence of agricultural pests. Understanding how land-use and management control crop-associated biodiversity is, therefore, one of the key steps towards the prediction and maintenance of natural pest-control. Here we report on relationships between land-use variables and arthropod community attributes (for example, species diversity, abundance and guild structure) across a diversification gradient in a rice-dominated landscape in the Mekong delta, Vietnam. We show that rice habitats contained the most diverse arthropod communities, compared with other uncultivated and cultivated land-use types. In addition, arthropod species density and Simpson's diversity in flower, vegetable and fruit habitats was positively related to rice cover in the local landscape. However, across the landscape as a whole, reduction in heterogeneity and the amount of uncultivated cover was associated, generally, with a loss of diversity. Furthermore, arthropod species density in tillering and flowering stages of rice was positively related to crop and vegetation richness, respectively, in the local landscape. Differential effects on feeding guilds were also observed in rice-associated communities with the proportional abundance of predators increasing and the proportional abundance of detritivores decreasing with increased landscape rice cover. Thus, we identify a range of rather complex, sometimes contradictory patterns concerning the impact of rice cover and landscape heterogeneity on arthropod community attributes. Importantly, we conclude that that land-use change associated with expansion of monoculture rice need not automatically impact diversity and functioning of the arthropod community.

Prediction of global and local model quality in CASP8 using the ModFOLD server

The development of effective methods for predicting the quality of three-dimensional (3D) models is fundamentally important for the success of tertiary structure (TS) prediction strategies. Since CASP7, the Quality Assessment (QA) category has existed to gauge the ability of various model quality assessment programs (MQAPs) at predicting the relative quality of individual 3D models. For the CASP8 experiment, automated predictions were submitted in the QA category using two methods from the ModFOLD server-ModFOLD version 1.1 and ModFOLDclust. ModFOLD version 1.1 is a single-model machine learning based method, which was used for automated predictions of global model quality (QMODE1). ModFOLDclust is a simple clustering based method, which was used for automated predictions of both global and local quality (QMODE2). In addition, manual predictions of model quality were made using ModFOLD version 2.0-an experimental method that combines the scores from ModFOLDclust and ModFOLD v1.1. Predictions from the ModFOLDclust method were the most successful of the three in terms of the global model quality, whilst the ModFOLD v1.1 method was comparable in performance to other single-model based methods. In addition, the ModFOLDclust method performed well at predicting the per-residue, or local, model quality scores. Predictions of the per-residue errors in our own 3D models, selected using the ModFOLD v2.0 method, were also the most accurate compared with those from other methods. All of the MQAPs described are publicly accessible via the ModFOLD server at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. The methods are also freely available to download from: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/.

Correlation-type structure activity relationships for the kinetics of gas-phase RO2 self-reactions and reaction with HO2

Structure activity relationships (SARs) are presented for the gas-phase reactions of RO2 with HO2, and the self- and cross-reactions of RO2. For RO2+HO2 the SAR is based upon a correlation between the logarithm of the measured rate coefficient and a calculated ionisation potential for the molecule R-CH=CH2, R being the same group in both the radical and molecular analogue. The correlation observed is strong and only for one RO2 species does the measured rate coefficient deviate by more than a factor of two from the linear least-squares regression line. For the self- and cross-reactions of RO2 radicals, the SAR is based upon a correlation between the logarithm of the measured rate coefficient and the calculated electrostatic potential (ESP) at the equivalent carbon atom in the RH molecule to which oxygen is attached in RO2, again R being the same group in the molecule and the radical. For cases where R is a simple alkyl-group, a strong linear correlation observed. For RO2 radicals which contain lone pair-bearing substituents and for which the calculated ESP<-0.05 self-reaction rate coefficients appear to be insensitive to the value of the ESP. For RO2 of this type with ESP>-0.05 a linear relationship between log k and the ESP is again observed. Using the relationships, 84 out of the 85 rate coefficients used to develop the SARs are predicted to within a factor of three of their measured values. A relationship is also presented that allows the prediction of the Arrhenius parameters for the self-reactions of simple alkyl RO2 radicals. On the basis of the correlations, predictions of room-temperature rate coefficients are made for a number of atmospherically important peroxyl-peroxyl radical reactions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dual-orthogonal radial basis function networks for nonlinear time series prediction

A new structure of Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network called the Dual-orthogonal RBF Network (DRBF) is introduced for nonlinear time series prediction. The hidden nodes of a conventional RBF network compare the Euclidean distance between the network input vector and the centres, and the node responses are radially symmetrical. But in time series prediction where the system input vectors are lagged system outputs, which are usually highly correlated, the Euclidean distance measure may not be appropriate. The DRBF network modifies the distance metric by introducing a classification function which is based on the estimation data set. Training the DRBF networks consists of two stages. Learning the classification related basis functions and the important input nodes, followed by selecting the regressors and learning the weights of the hidden nodes. In both cases, a forward Orthogonal Least Squares (OLS) selection procedure is applied, initially to select the important input nodes and then to select the important centres. Simulation results of single-step and multi-step ahead predictions over a test data set are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

Prediction of novel and analogous folds using fragment assembly and fold recognition

A number of new and newly improved methods for predicting protein structure developed by the Jones–University College London group were used to make predictions for the CASP6 experiment. Structures were predicted with a combination of fold recognition methods (mGenTHREADER, nFOLD, and THREADER) and a substantially enhanced version of FRAGFOLD, our fragment assembly method. Attempts at automatic domain parsing were made using DomPred and DomSSEA, which are based on a secondary structure parsing algorithm and additionally for DomPred, a simple local sequence alignment scoring function. Disorder prediction was carried out using a new SVM-based version of DISOPRED. Attempts were also made at domain docking and “microdomain” folding in order to build complete chain models for some targets.

The DISOPRED server for the prediction of protein disorder

Dynamically disordered regions appear to be relatively abundant in eukaryotic proteomes. The DISOPRED server allows users to submit a protein sequence, and returns a probability estimate of each residue in the sequence being disordered. The results are sent in both plain text and graphical formats, and the server can also supply predictions of secondary structure to provide further structural information.

Rapid protein domain assignment from amino acid sequence using predicted secondary structure

The elucidation of the domain content of a given protein sequence in the absence of determined structure or significant sequence homology to known domains is an important problem in structural biology. Here we address how successfully the delineation of continuous domains can be accomplished in the absence of sequence homology using simple baseline methods, an existing prediction algorithm (Domain Guess by Size), and a newly developed method (DomSSEA). The study was undertaken with a view to measuring the usefulness of these prediction methods in terms of their application to fully automatic domain assignment. Thus, the sensitivity of each domain assignment method was measured by calculating the number of correctly assigned top scoring predictions. We have implemented a new continuous domain identification method using the alignment of predicted secondary structures of target sequences against observed secondary structures of chains with known domain boundaries as assigned by Class Architecture Topology Homology (CATH). Taking top predictions only, the success rate of the method in correctly assigning domain number to the representative chain set is 73.3%. The top prediction for domain number and location of domain boundaries was correct for 24% of the multidomain set (±20 residues). These results have been put into context in relation to the results obtained from the other prediction methods assessed

Prediction of a typhoon using a fine-mesh NWP model

The ECMWF operational grid point model (with a resolution of 1.875° of latitude and longitude) and its limited area version (with a resolution of !0.47° of latitude and longitude) with boundary values from the global model have been used to study the simulation of the typhoon Tip. The fine-mesh model was capable of simulating the main structural features of the typhoon and predicting a fall in central pressure of 60 mb in 3 days. The structure of the forecast typhoon, with a warm core (maximum potential temperature anomaly 17 K). intense swirling wind (maximum 55 m s-1 at 850 mb) and spiralling precipitation patterns is characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Comparison with the lower resolution forecast shows that the horizontal resolution is a determining factor in predicting not only the structure and intensity but even the movement of these vortices. However, an accurate and refined initial analysis is considered to be a prerequisite for a correct forecast of this phenomenon.

Reconstruction and prediction of variations in the open solar magnetic flux and interplanetary conditions

Historic geomagnetic activity observations have been used to reveal centennial variations in the open solar flux and the near-Earth heliospheric conditions (the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed). The various methods are in very good agreement for the past 135 years when there were sufficient reliable magnetic observatories in operation to eliminate problems due to site-specific errors and calibration drifts. This review underlines the physical principles that allow these reconstructions to be made, as well as the details of the various algorithms employed and the results obtained. Discussion is included of: the importance of the averaging timescale; the key differences between “range” and “interdiurnal variability” geomagnetic data; the need to distinguish source field sector structure from heliospherically-imposed field structure; the importance of ensuring that regressions used are statistically robust; and uncertainty analysis. The reconstructions are exceedingly useful as they provide calibration between the in-situ spacecraft measurements from the past five decades and the millennial records of heliospheric behaviour deduced from measured abundances of cosmogenic radionuclides found in terrestrial reservoirs. Continuity of open solar flux, using sunspot number to quantify the emergence rate, is the basis of a number of models that have been very successful in reproducing the variation derived from geomagnetic activity. These models allow us to extend the reconstructions back to before the development of the magnetometer and to cover the Maunder minimum. Allied to the radionuclide data, the models are revealing much about how the Sun and heliosphere behaved outside of grand solar maxima and are providing a means of predicting how solar activity is likely to evolve now that the recent grand maximum (that had prevailed throughout the space age) has come to an end.

Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Landscape structure mediates the effects of a stressor on field vole populations

Spatio-temporal landscape heterogeneity has rarely been considered in population-level impact assessments. Here we test whether landscape heterogeneity is important by examining the case of a pesticide applied seasonally to orchards which may affect non-target vole populations, using a validated ecologically realistic and spatially explicit agent-based model. Voles thrive in unmanaged grasslands and untreated orchards but are particularly exposed to applied pesticide treatments during dispersal between optimal habitats. We therefore hypothesised that vole populations do better (1) in landscapes containing more grassland and (2) where areas of grassland are closer to orchards, but (3) do worse if larger areas of orchards are treated with pesticide. To test these hyposeses we made appropriate manipulations to a model landscape occupied by field voles. Pesticide application reduced model population sizes in all three experiments, but populations subsequently wholly or partly recovered. Population depressions were, as predicted, lower in landscapes containing more unmanaged grassland, in landscapes with reduced distance between grassland and orchards, and in landscapes with fewer treated orchards. Population recovery followed a similar pattern except for an unexpected improvement in recovery when the area of treated orchards was increased. Outside the period of pesticide application, orchards increase landscape connectivity and facilitate vole dispersal and so speed population recovery. Overall our results show that accurate prediction of population impact cannot be achieved without taking account of landscape structure. The specifics of landscape structure and habitat connectivity are likely always important in mediating the effects of stressors.