'Modern' Phillips Curves and the Implications For The Statistical Process of Inflation

'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated process. This paper explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation.

Statistical discrimination of steroid profiles in doping control with support vector machines.

Due to their performance enhancing properties, use of anabolic steroids (e.g. testosterone, nandrolone, etc.) is banned in elite sports. Therefore, doping control laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) screen among others for these prohibited substances in urine. It is particularly challenging to detect misuse with naturally occurring anabolic steroids such as testosterone (T), which is a popular ergogenic agent in sports and society. To screen for misuse with these compounds, drug testing laboratories monitor the urinary concentrations of endogenous steroid metabolites and their ratios, which constitute the steroid profile and compare them with reference ranges to detect unnaturally high values. However, the interpretation of the steroid profile is difficult due to large inter-individual variances, various confounding factors and different endogenous steroids marketed that influence the steroid profile in various ways. A support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was developed to statistically evaluate urinary steroid profiles composed of an extended range of steroid profile metabolites. This model makes the interpretation of the analytical data in the quest for deviating steroid profiles feasible and shows its versatility towards different kinds of misused endogenous steroids. The SVM model outperforms the current biomarkers with respect to detection sensitivity and accuracy, particularly when it is coupled to individual data as stored in the Athlete Biological Passport.

Visual functions in the healthy and schizophrenic brain : from stimulus control to illusory perceptions using electrical neuroimaging

ABSTRACT (FRENCH)Ce travail de thèse basé sur le système visuel chez les sujets sains et chez les patients schizophrènes, s'articule autour de trois articles scientifiques publiés ou en cours de publication. Ces articles traitent des sujets suivants : le premier article présente une nouvelle méthode de traitement des composantes physiques des stimuli (luminance et fréquence spatiale). Le second article montre, à l'aide d'analyses de données EEG, un déficit de la voie magnocellulaire dans le traitement visuel des illusions chez les patients schizophrènes. Ceci est démontré par l'absence de modulation de la composante PI chez les patients schizophrènes contrairement aux sujets sains. Cette absence est induite par des stimuli de type illusion Kanizsa de différentes excentricités. Finalement, le troisième article, également à l'aide de méthodes de neuroimagerie électrique (EEG), montre que le traitement des contours illusoires se trouve dans le complexe latéro-occipital (LOC), à l'aide d'illusion « misaligned gratings ». De plus il révèle que les activités démontrées précédemment dans les aires visuelles primaires sont dues à des inférences « top- down ».Afin de permettre la compréhension de ces trois articles, l'introduction de ce manuscrit présente les concepts essentiels. De plus des méthodes d'analyses de temps-fréquence sont présentées. L'introduction est divisée en quatre parties : la première présente le système visuel depuis les cellules retino-corticales aux deux voix du traitement de l'information en passant par les régions composant le système visuel. La deuxième partie présente la schizophrénie par son diagnostic, ces déficits de bas niveau de traitement des stimuli visuel et ces déficits cognitifs. La troisième partie présente le traitement des contours illusoires et les trois modèles utilisés dans le dernier article. Finalement, les méthodes de traitement des données EEG seront explicitées, y compris les méthodes de temps-fréquences.Les résultats des trois articles sont présentés dans le chapitre éponyme (du même nom). De plus ce chapitre comprendra les résultats obtenus à l'aide des méthodes de temps-fréquenceFinalement, la discussion sera orientée selon trois axes : les méthodes de temps-fréquence ainsi qu'une proposition de traitement de ces données par une méthode statistique indépendante de la référence. La discussion du premier article en montrera la qualité du traitement de ces stimuli. La discussion des deux articles neurophysiologiques, proposera de nouvelles d'expériences afin d'affiner les résultats actuels sur les déficits des schizophrènes. Ceci pourrait permettre d'établir un marqueur biologique fiable de la schizophrénie.ABSTRACT (ENGLISH)This thesis focuses on the visual system in healthy subjects and schizophrenic patients. To address this research, advanced methods of analysis of electroencephalographic (EEG) data were used and developed. This manuscript is comprised of three scientific articles. The first article showed a novel method to control the physical features of visual stimuli (luminance and spatial frequencies). The second article showed, using electrical neuroimaging of EEG, a deficit in spatial processing associated with the dorsal pathway in chronic schizophrenic patients. This deficit was elicited by an absent modulation of the PI component in terms of response strength and topography as well as source estimations. This deficit was orthogonal to the preserved ability to process Kanizsa-type illusory contours. Finally, the third article resolved ongoing debates concerning the neural mechanism mediating illusory contour sensitivity by using electrical neuroimaging to show that the first differentiation of illusory contour presence vs. absence is localized within the lateral occipital complex. This effect was subsequent to modulations due to the orientation of misaligned grating stimuli. Collectively, these results support a model where effects in V1/V2 are mediated by "top-down" modulation from the LOC.To understand these three articles, the Introduction of this thesis presents the major concepts used in these articles. Additionally, a section is devoted to time-frequency analysis methods not presented in the articles themselves. The introduction is divided in four parts. The first part presents three aspects of the visual system: cellular, regional, and its functional interactions. The second part presents an overview of schizophrenia and its sensoiy-cognitive deficits. The third part presents an overview of illusory contour processing and the three models examined in the third article. Finally, advanced analysis methods for EEG are presented, including time- frequency methodology.The Introduction is followed by a synopsis of the main results in the articles as well as those obtained from the time-frequency analyses.Finally, the Discussion chapter is divided along three axes. The first axis discusses the time frequency analysis and proposes a novel statistical approach that is independent of the reference. The second axis contextualizes the first article and discusses the quality of the stimulus control and direction for further improvements. Finally, both neurophysiologic articles are contextualized by proposing future experiments and hypotheses that may serve to improve our understanding of schizophrenia on the one hand and visual functions more generally.

An Experimental Validation of a Statistical-Based Damage Detection Approach, January 2011

In this work, a previously-developed, statistical-based, damage-detection approach was validated for its ability to autonomously detect damage in bridges. The damage-detection approach uses statistical differences in the actual and predicted behavior of the bridge caused under a subset of ambient trucks. The predicted behavior is derived from a statistics-based model trained with field data from the undamaged bridge (not a finite element model). The differences between actual and predicted responses, called residuals, are then used to construct control charts, which compare undamaged and damaged structure data. Validation of the damage-detection approach was achieved by using sacrificial specimens that were mounted to the bridge and exposed to ambient traffic loads and which simulated actual damage-sensitive locations. Different damage types and levels were introduced to the sacrificial specimens to study the sensitivity and applicability. The damage-detection algorithm was able to identify damage, but it also had a high false-positive rate. An evaluation of the sub-components of the damage-detection methodology and methods was completed for the purpose of improving the approach. Several of the underlying assumptions within the algorithm were being violated, which was the source of the false-positives. Furthermore, the lack of an automatic evaluation process was thought to potentially be an impediment to widespread use. Recommendations for the improvement of the methodology were developed and preliminarily evaluated. These recommendations are believed to improve the efficacy of the damage-detection approach.

Statistical modeling of bowing control applied to violin sound synthesis

Excitation-continuous music instrument control patterns are often not explicitly represented in current sound synthesis techniques when applied to automatic performance. Both physical model-based and sample-based synthesis paradigmswould benefit from a flexible and accurate instrument control model, enabling the improvement of naturalness and realism. Wepresent a framework for modeling bowing control parameters inviolin performance. Nearly non-intrusive sensing techniques allow for accurate acquisition of relevant timbre-related bowing control parameter signals.We model the temporal contour of bow velocity, bow pressing force, and bow-bridge distance as sequences of short Bézier cubic curve segments. Considering different articulations, dynamics, and performance contexts, a number of note classes are defined. Contours of bowing parameters in a performance database are analyzed at note-level by following a predefined grammar that dictates characteristics of curve segment sequences for each of the classes in consideration. As a result, contour analysis of bowing parameters of each note yields an optimal representation vector that is sufficient for reconstructing original contours with significant fidelity. From the resulting representation vectors, we construct a statistical model based on Gaussian mixtures suitable for both the analysis and synthesis of bowing parameter contours. By using the estimated models, synthetic contours can be generated through a bow planning algorithm able to reproduce possible constraints caused by the finite length of the bow. Rendered contours are successfully used in two preliminary synthesis frameworks: digital waveguide-based bowed stringphysical modeling and sample-based spectral-domain synthesis.

Embankment Quality and Assessment of Moisture Control Implementation, TR-677, 2016

A specification for contractor moisture quality control (QC) in roadway embankment construction has been in use for approximately 10 years in Iowa on about 190 projects. The use of this QC specification and the development of the soils certification program for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) originated from Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) embankment quality research projects. Since this research, the Iowa DOT has applied compaction with moisture control on most embankment work under pavements. This study set out to independently evaluate the actual quality of compaction using the current specifications. Results show that Proctor tests conducted by Iowa State University (ISU) using representative material obtained from each test section where field testing was conducted had optimum moisture contents and maximum dry densities that are different from what was selected by the Iowa DOT for QC/quality assurance (QA) testing. Comparisons between the measured and selected values showed a standard error of 2.9 lb/ft3 for maximum dry density and 2.1% for optimum moisture content. The difference in optimum moisture content was as high as 4% and the difference in maximum dry density was as high as 6.5 lb/ft3 . The difference at most test locations, however, were within the allowable variation suggested in AASHTO T 99 for test results between different laboratories. The ISU testing results showed higher rates of data outside of the target limits specified based on the available contractor QC data for cohesive materials. Also, during construction observations, wet fill materials were often observed. Several test points indicated that materials were placed and accepted at wet of the target moisture contents. The statistical analysis results indicate that the results obtained from this study showed improvements over results from previous embankment quality research projects (TR-401 Phases I through III and TR-492) in terms of the percentage of data that fell within the specification limits. Although there was evidence of improvement, QC/QA results are not consistently meeting the target limits/values. Recommendations are provided in this report for Iowa DOT consideration with three proposed options for improvements to the current specifications. Option 1 provides enhancements to current specifications in terms of material-dependent control limits, training, sampling, and process control. Option 2 addresses development of alternative specifications that incorporate dynamic cone penetrometer or light weight deflectometer testing into QC/QA. Option 3 addresses incorporating calibrated intelligent compaction measurements into QC/QA.

Purchasing Process Performance Definition and Improvement in the Mechanical Wood Industry

Tämän tutkimuksen ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli määrittää Schauman Wood Oy:n ostoprosessin suorituskyvyn nykytila yrityksen Suomen yksiköissä. Nykytila-arviointi suoritettiin uusien ja käytössä olevien mittaustulosten avulla. Tutkimuksessa verrattiin kymmenen tuotantolaitoksen ostoprosesseja keskenään. Keskeinen tutkimusongelma oli ostoprosessin suorituseroja aikaansaavien tekijöiden selvittäminen eri yksiköissä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli saavuttaa yhtenäisemmät toimintatavat yrityksessä sekä laajentaa konsernin osto-organisaation hyödyntämistä hankintatoimessa. Tavoitteena oli ostoprosessin virtaviivaistaminen ja tehokkaamman seurantajärjestelmän kehittäminen. Ostotoimintojen suorituskyvyn jatkuva parantaminen perustuu osittain uusien mittareiden avulla saatavaan informaatioon ja täsmällisempään seurantaan. Sisäistä benchmarkingia käytettiin työkaluna suorituskyky-eroavaisuuksien määrittelyssä. Tietoa erilaisista toimintatavoista kerättiin haastattelemalla yrityksen ostajia ja tehdaspalvelupäälliköitä eri tehdaspaikkakunnilla. Sisäisen benchmarkingin avulla määriteltiin toimintatapa eroavaisuudet sekä kehitettiin seurantakortti, jossa jokaista yksikköä verrataan parhaaseen ja eniten kehittyneeseen yksikköön. Työn tuloksina muodostui ehdotuksia ostotoiminnon uusiksi mittareiksi. Uudet mittarit ovat tehokkuusmittareita, jotka kuvaavat resurssien käytön tehokkuutta sekä auttavat seuraamaan ostoprosessin tilaa entistä paremmin. Uusien mittareiden tavoitteena on myös vähentää mittareiden manipulaatiomahdollisuutta. Työn ulkopuolelle rajattiin informaatioteknologiajärjestelmien tietotekninen osuus. Eräs yrityksen tuotantolaitoksista rajattiin myös työn ulkopuolelle, koska sen ostoprosessit ovat huomattavasti kehittymättömämpiä kuin Schauman Woodin muiden tehtaiden ostoprosessit. Kyseisen yksikön kehittämisen tulee lähteä aivan ruohonjuuritasolta. Tutkimuksen teoriaosuus on kerätty alan ammattikirjallisuudesta ja tutkimuksen aihetta käsittelevistä uudehkoista tieteellisistä alan artikkeleista. Teorian tarkoituksena on tukea empiiristä osuutta sekä antaa lukijalle uusia näkemyksiä ostotoiminnan monista mahdollisuuksista. Tutkimuksen tuloksia ovat nykytila-analyysi, ehdotukset uusista ostotoiminnan mittareista sekä ehdotus MRO-tuotteiden ulkoistamiskokeilusta. Yrityksen ostotoiminnan tulisi kehittyä operatiivisesta tasosta kohti strategisempaa oston tasoa. Johdon sitoutuminen hankintatoimen kehityshankkeisiin on erityisen tärkeää, lisäksi hankintatoimi tulisi nähdä strategisempana osa-alueena yrityksessä. Hankintatoimen kehittämisen avulla yrityksen kustannustehokkuutta voidaan lisätä merkittävästi.

A multistep process of cancer associated fibroblasts determination under CSL-p53 control

Stromal fibroblast senescence has been linked to the aging-associated increase of tumors. However, in epithelial cancer, density and proliferation of cancer associated fibroblasts (CAF) are frequently increased, rather than decreased. We previously showed that genetic deletion or down-modulation of the canonical Notch effector CSL/RBP-JK in dermal fibroblasts is sufficient for CAF activation with consequent development of keratinocyte-derived tumors. We show here that CSL silencing induces senescence of primary fibroblasts from dermis, oral mucosa, breast and lung. CSL functions in these cells as direct repressor of multiple senescence- and CAF-effector genes. It also physically interacts with p53, repressing its activity. CSL is down-modulated in stromal fibroblasts of premalignant skin actinic keratosis lesions and squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), while p53 gene expression and function is down-modulated only in the latter, with paracrine influences of incipient cancer cells as a likely culprit. Concomitant loss of CSL and p53 overcomes fibroblast senescence, enhances CAF effector gene expression and promotes stromal and cancer cell expansion. The findings support a CAF activation/stromal co-evolution model under convergent CSL/p53 control of likely clinical relevance.

Configuring Health Care Services - Service Control Improvement

The costs of health care are increasing, and at the same time, population is aging. This leads health care organizations to focus more on home based care services. This thesis focuses on the home care organization of the South Karelian District of Social and Health Services (Eksote), which was established in 2010; how its operation is organized and managed, and which problem types are faced in the daily operation of home care. This thesis examines home care services through an extensive interview study, process mapping and statistical data analysis. To be able to understand the nature of services and special environment theory models, such as service management and performance measurement, service processes and service design are introduced. This study is conducted from an external researcher‟s point of view and should be used as a discussion opener. The outcome of this thesis is an upper level development path for Eksote home care. The organization should evaluate and build a service offering, then productize home care services and modularize the products and identify similarities. Service processes should be mapped to generate efficiency for repeating tasks. Units should be reasonably sized and geographically located to facilitate management and operation. All this can be done by recognizing the different types of service products: runners repeaters and strangers. Furthermore, the organization should not hide behind medical issues and should understand the legislative, medical and operational frameworks in health care.

Monitoring of mechanical sugarcane harvesting through control charts

ABSTRACT Statistical process control in mechanized farming is a new way to assess operation quality. In this sense, we aimed to compare three statistical process control tools applied to losses in sugarcane mechanical harvesting to determine the best control chart template for this quality indicator. Losses were daily monitored in farms located within Triângulo Mineiro region, in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. They were carried over a period of 70 days in the 2014 harvest. At the end of the evaluation period, 194 samples were collected in total for each type of loss. The control charts used were individual values chart, moving average and exponentially weighted moving average. The quality indicators assessed during sugarcane harvest were the following loss types: full grinding wheel, stumps, fixed piece, whole cane, chips, loose piece and total losses. The control chart of individual values is the best option for monitoring losses in sugarcane mechanical harvesting, as it is of easier result interpretation, in comparison to the others.

Press forming of paperboard – advancement of converting tools and process control

Press forming is nowadays one of the most common industrial methods in use for producing deeper trays from paperboard. Demands for material properties like recyclability and sustainability have increased also in the packaging industry, but there are still limitations related to the formability of paperboard. A majority of recent studies have focused on material development, but the potential of the package manufacturing process can also be improved by the development of tooling and process control. In this study, advanced converting tools (die cutting tools and the press forming mould) are created for production scale paperboard tray manufacturing. Also monitoring methods that enable the production of paperboard trays with enhanced quality, and can be utilized in process control are developed. The principles for tray blank preparation, including creasing pattern and die cutting tool design are introduced. The mould heating arrangement and determination of mould clearance are investigated to improve the quality of the press formed trays. The effect of the spring back of the tray walls on the tray dimensions can be managed by adjusting the heat-related process parameters and estimating it at the mould design stage. This enables production speed optimization as the process parameters can be adjusted more freely. Real-time monitoring of pressing force by using multiple force sensors embedded in the mould structure can be utilized in the evaluation of material characteristics on a modified production machinery. Comprehensive process control can be achieved with a combination of measurement of the outer dimensions of the trays and pressing force monitoring. The control method enables detection of defects and tracking changes in the material properties. The optimized converting tools provide a basis for effective operation of the control system.

Utilization of Statistical Methods for Management in the Forest Industry

The strongest wish of the customer concerning chemical pulp features is consistent, uniform quality. Variation may be controlled and reduced by using statistical methods. However, studies addressing the application and benefits of statistical methods in forest product sector are scarce. Thus, the customer wish is the root cause of the motivation behind this dissertation. The research problem addressed by this dissertation is that companies in the chemical forest product sector require new knowledge for improving their utilization of statistical methods. To gain this new knowledge, the research problem is studied from five complementary viewpoints – challenges and success factors, organizational learning, problem solving, economic benefit, and statistical methods as management tools. The five research questions generated on the basis of these viewpoints are answered in four research papers, which are case studies based on empirical data collection. This research as a whole complements the literature dealing with the use of statistical methods in the forest products industry. Practical examples of the application of statistical process control, case-based reasoning, the cross-industry standard process for data mining, and performance measurement methods in the context of chemical forest products manufacturing are brought to the public knowledge of the scientific community. The benefit of the application of these methods is estimated or demonstrated. The purpose of this dissertation is to find pragmatic ideas for companies in the chemical forest product sector in order for them to improve their utilization of statistical methods. The main practical implications of this doctoral dissertation can be summarized in four points: 1. It is beneficial to reduce variation in chemical forest product manufacturing processes 2. Statistical tools can be used to reduce this variation 3. Problem-solving in chemical forest product manufacturing processes can be intensified through the use of statistical methods 4. There are certain success factors and challenges that need to be addressed when implementing statistical methods

Real-time adaptive control of ultra-fast laser scribing process with spectrometer online monitoring

There exist several researches and applications about laser welding monitoring and parameter control but not a single one have been created for controlling of laser scribing processes. Laser scribing is considered to be very fast and accurate process and thus it would be necessary to develop accurate turning and monitoring system for such a process. This research focuses on finding out whether it would be possible to develop real-time adaptive control for ultra-fast laser scribing processes utilizing spectrometer online monitoring. The thesis accurately presents how control code for laser parameter tuning is developed using National Instrument's LabVIEW and how spectrometer is being utilized in online monitoring. Results are based on behavior of the control code and accuracy of the spectrometer monitoring when scribing different steel materials. Finally control code success is being evaluated and possible development ideas for future are presented.

Thinking skills in the language arts : an application of cognitive schema theory to the narrative writing process /

A cognitively based instructional program for narrative writing was developed. The effects of using cognitively based schematic planning organizers at the pre-writing stage were evaluated using subjects from the Primary, Junior and Intermediate divisions. Results indicate that the use of organizers based on problem solving significantly improved the organization and the overall quality of narrative writing for students in grades 3, 6 and 7. The magnitude of the improvement of the treatment group over the control group performance in Organization ranged from 10.7% to 22.9%. Statistical and observational data indicate many implications for further research into the cognitive basis for writing and reading; for the improvement and evaluation of school writing programs; for the design of school curricula; and for the inservice education for teachers of writing.