Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Overview of complex systems in sport

The complex systems approach offers an opportunity to replace the extant pre-dominant mechanistic view on sport-related phenomena. The emphasis on the environment-system relationship, the applications of complexity principles, and the use of nonlinear dynamics mathematical tools propose a deep change in sport science. Coordination dynamics, ecological dynamics, and network approaches have been successfully applied to the study of different sport-related behaviors, from movement patterns that emerge at different scales constrained by specific sport contexts to game dynamics. Sport benefit from the use of such approaches in the understanding of technical, tactical, or physical conditioning aspects which change their meaning and dilute their frontiers. The creation of new learning and training strategies for teams and individual athletes is a main practical consequence. Some challenges for the future are investigating the influence of key control parameters in the nonlinear behavior of athlete-environment systems and the possible relatedness of the dynamics and constraints acting at different spatio-temporal scales in team sports. Modelling sport-related phenomena can make useful contributions to a better understanding of complex systems and vice-versa.

Sport and the law : waiting for Snicko

It is just past that time of year: the semis and finals of the winter sporting codes have come and gone.. As a result, the decisions of video refs and disciplinary citing committees working off video replays have assumed even more importance.

The consultative process used in outreach : a narrative account

Aim The aim of this paper was to provide a narrative account of the communication skills used in an effective outreach consultation utilizing Neighbour’s consultative model. Other consultation models were considered; however, because of their overly comprehensive approach or emphasis on behaviour modification, these were deemed inappropriate. Background The nursing profession has endured significant changes of late and as a result is developing more autonomous roles in both the community and the acute health care settings. In the past, the term consultancy was used within the medical context; nowadays, there are advance nurse practitioners for whom consultancy is an integral part of their role. Although every nursing interaction is in essence a consultation, the fact that nurses are taking up on new advanced roles highlights the necessity for nurses to develop their consultation skills even further. Therefore, it makes sense to explore what aspects of that consultancy role needs special consideration in order to ensure that positive outcomes are achieved. Conclusions This paper has used a narrative account to uncover those salient skills needed to enhance the therapeutic relationship with a patient requiring the services of outreach. Furthermore, the application of a recognized consultation model was used to elucidate the underpinning knowledge of systematic history taking and assessment as well as demonstrating the communication skills and strategies needed to increase the patient’s participation and empowerment throughout the consultation. Relevance to clinical practice Effective communication skills encompassed in a consultative model are integral to the success in safeguarding the well-being of patients requiring advanced levels of care. Prejudging or pre-empting information being conveyed can be detrimental to patient safety and may prolong or complicate treatment plans.

A Satellite Selection Algorithm for Achieving High Reliability of Ambiguity Resolution with GPS and Beidou Constellations

Reliability of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) of an integer least-squares (ILS) problem depends on ambiguity success rate (ASR), which in practice can be well approximated by the success probability of integer bootstrapping solutions. With the current GPS constellation, sufficiently high ASR of geometry-based model can only be achievable at certain percentage of time. As a result, high reliability of AR cannot be assured by the single constellation. In the event of dual constellations system (DCS), for example, GPS and Beidou, which provide more satellites in view, users can expect significant performance benefits such as AR reliability and high precision positioning solutions. Simply using all the satellites in view for AR and positioning is a straightforward solution, but does not necessarily lead to high reliability as it is hoped. The paper presents an alternative approach that selects a subset of the visible satellites to achieve a higher reliability performance of the AR solutions in a multi-GNSS environment, instead of using all the satellites. Traditionally, satellite selection algorithms are mostly based on the position dilution of precision (PDOP) in order to meet accuracy requirements. In this contribution, some reliability criteria are introduced for GNSS satellite selection, and a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution (SARA) is developed. The SARA algorithm allows receivers to select a subset of satellites for achieving high ASR such as above 0.99. Numerical results from a simulated dual constellation cases show that with the SARA procedure, the percentages of ASR values in excess of 0.99 and the percentages of ratio-test values passing the threshold 3 are both higher than those directly using all satellites in view, particularly in the case of dual-constellation, the percentages of ASRs (>0.99) and ratio-test values (>3) could be as high as 98.0 and 98.5 % respectively, compared to 18.1 and 25.0 % without satellite selection process. It is also worth noting that the implementation of SARA is simple and the computation time is low, which can be applied in most real-time data processing applications.

Status of the world's remaining closed forests : an assessment using satellite data and policy options

Historically, it appears that some of the WRCF have survived because i) they lack sufficient quantity of commercially valuable species; ii) they are located in remote or inaccessible areas; or iii) they have been protected as national parks and sanctuaries. Forests will be protected when people who are deciding the fate of forests conclude than the conservation of forests is more beneficial, e.g. generates higher incomes or has cultural or social values, than their clearance. If this is not the case, forests will continue to be cleared and converted. In the future, the WRCF may be protected only by focused attention. The future policy options may include strategies for strong protection measures, the raising of public awareness about the value of forests, and concerted actions for reducing pressure on forest lands by providing alternatives to forest exploitation to meet the growing demands of forest products. Many areas with low population densities offer an opportunity for conservation if appropriate steps are taken now by the national governments and international community. This opportunity must be founded upon the increased public and government awareness that forests have vast importance to the welfare of humans and ecosystems' services such as biodiversity, watershed protection, and carbon balance. Also paramount to this opportunity is the increased scientific understanding of forest dynamics and technical capability to install global observation and assessment systems. High-resolution satellite data such as Landsat 7 and other technologically advanced satellite programs will provide unprecedented monitoring options for governing authorities. Technological innovation can contribute to the way forests are protected. The use of satellite imagery for regular monitoring and Internet for information dissemination provide effective tools for raising worldwide awareness about the significance of forests and intrinsic value of nature.

Unintended consequences : satellite policy and Indigenous television

This article examines two instances of media policy involving satellite transmission and Indigenous television: the introduction of the Viewer Access Satellite Television (VAST) platform in 2010 and the introduction of AUSSAT in the mid-1980s. The government’s failure to provide community and Indigenous broadcasters with an access regime at the time of AUSSAT resulted in Australia’s first and only Indigenous commercial television licensee, Imparja. Over a quarter of a century later, Imparja now forms part of the joint-venture company that runs VAST, a key component of Australia’s digital switchover planning. During the passage of the legislative amendments required to establish VAST, the issue of access resurfaced – this time in relation to Australia’s national and community Indigenous television channels. The article recounts the events leading up to the 2010 Bill, and examines the intended and unintended consequences of satellite policy in relation to Indigenous media, including equalisation and transparency of government funding programs.

Assessing physical activity during youth sport : the observational system for recording activity in children : youth sports (OSRAC:YS)

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity and inter-rater reliability of the Observation System for Recording Activity in Children: Youth Sports (OSRAC:YS). Children (N=29) participating in a parks and recreation soccer program were observed during regularly scheduled practices. Physical activity (PA) intensity and contextual factors were recorded by momentary time-sampling procedures (10-sec observe, 20-sec record). Two observers simultaneously observed and recorded children's PA intensity, practice context, social context, coach behavior, and coach proximity. Inter-rater reliability was based on agreement (Kappa) between the observer's coding for each category, and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) for percent of time spent in MVPA. Validity was assessed by calculating the correlation between OSRAC:YS estimated and objectively measured MVPA. Kappa statistics for each category demonstrated substantial to almost perfect inter-observer agreement (Κappa = 0.67 to 0.93). The ICC for percent time in MVPA was 0.76 (95% C.I. = 0.49 - 0.90). A significant correlation (r = 0.73) was observed for MVPA recorded by observation and MVPA measured via accelerometry. The results indicate the OSRAC:YS is a reliable and valid tool for measuring children's PA and contextual factors during a youth soccer practice.

Student physical activity levels during a season of sport education

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which sport education can provide students with sufficient opportunities for developing moderate- to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Nineteen seventh-grade boys (average age = 12.9 yrs.) participated in a 22-lesson season of floor hockey. For all students (both higher and lower skilled), students averaged a total of 31.6 min of MVPA during the season, or 63.2% of lesson time. Further, there was no significant difference according to skill level (33.4 min [Higher] vs. 30.4 min [Lower]), nor were there any significant differences in MVPA levels across the phases of the season.