Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign.

Spatial patterns of office employment in the New York region

This study analyzes the regional spatial dynamics of the New York region for a period of roughly twenty years and places the effects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the context of longer-term regional dynamics. The analysis reveals that office-using industries are still heavily concentrated in Manhattan despite ongoing decentralization in many of these industries over the last twenty years. Financial services tend to be highly concentrated in Manhattan whereas administrative and support services are the least concentrated of the six major office-using industry groups. Although office employment has been by and large stagnant in Manhattan for at least two decades, growth of output per worker has outpaced the CMSA as well as the national average. This productivity differential is mainly attributable to competitive advantages of office-using industries in Manhattan and not to differences in industry composition. Finally, the zip-code level analysis of the Manhattan core area yielded further evidence of the existence of significant spillover effects at the small-scale level.

Peaceful coexistence? The role of religious schools and NGOs in the growth of female secondary schooling in Bangladesh

Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC), a non-governmental organisation (NGO), runs a large number of non-formal primary schools in Bangladesh which target out-of-school children from poor families. These schools are well-known for their effectiveness in closing the gender gap in primary school enrolment. On the other hand, registered non-government secondary madrasas (or Islamic schools) today enrol one girl against every boy student. In this article, we document a positive spillover effect of BRAC schools on female secondary enrolment in registered madrasas. Drawing upon school enrolment data aggregated at the region level, we first show that regions that had more registered madrasas experienced greater secondary female enrolment growth during 1999–2003, holding the number of secular secondary schools constant. In this context we test the impact of BRAC-run primary schools on female enrolment in registered madrasas. We deal with the potential endogeneity of placement of BRAC schools using an instrumental variable approach. Controlling for factors such as local-level poverty, road access and distance from major cities, we show that regions with a greater presence of BRAC schools have higher female enrolment growth in secondary madrasas. The effect is much bigger when compared to that on secondary schools.

The inverse domino effect: are economic reforms contagious?

This article examines whether a country's economic reforms are affected by reforms adopted by other countries. Our theoretical model predicts that reforms are more likely when factors of production are internationally mobile and reforms are pursued in other economies. Using the change in the Index of Economic Freedom as the measure of market-liberalizing reforms and panel data (144 countries, 1995–2006), we test our model. We find evidence of the spillover of reforms. Moreover, consistent with our model, international trade is not a vehicle for the diffusion of economic reforms; rather the most important mechanism is geographical or cultural proximity.

Impact of externalities on sustainable development: evidence from public-private partnerships in Kazakhstan and Russia

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the influence of public-private partnerships (PPPs) on social and economic conditions in Kazakhstan and Russia from a public economics perspective, namely, through the lens of a market failure and PPPs’ negative externalities. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on the concept of a market failure and using the externalities perspective, the paper investigates whether partnerships are instrumental in solving market problems, which is illustrated by the evidence from ongoing PPP projects in Kazakhstan and Russia. Findings – Results show that citizens face expansion of monopolistic trends in the service provision and decreased availability of public services. Additionally, the government support to partnerships recreates a negative externality in the form of a higher risk premium on loan interest rates that banks use to finance PPPs. The partnerships’ impact on sustainable development often appears detrimental, as they significantly intensify the struggle between sub-national governments for increased transfers from the national budget. Practical implications – The government agencies must incorporate the appraisal of the PPP externalities and their effects on the society in the decision-making regarding the PPP formation. Originality/value – The authors suggest that, although government is interested in PPPs’ positive externalities, in reality many negative externalities may offset the positive spillover effects. As a result, the partnerships’ contributions to economic and social sustainability remain controversial. Extending the value-for-money concept to incorporate the assessment of PPP externalities might significantly enhance the partnership conceptualisation by more comprehensive and accurate assessment of PPPs’ economic and social value.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Production of hydrogen via steam reforming of biofuels on Ni/CeO(2)-Al(2)O(3) catalysts promoted by noble metals

The catalytic activity of Ni/CeO(2)-Al(2)O(3) catalysts modified with noble metals (Pt, Ir, Pd and Ru) was investigated for the steam reform of ethanol and glycerol. The catalysts were characterized by the following techniques: Energy-dispersive X-ray, BET, X-ray diffraction, temperature-programmed reduction, UV-vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES). The results showed that the formation of inactive nickel aluminate was prevented by the presence of CeO(2) dispersed on alumina. The promoting effect of noble metals included a decrease in the reduction temperatures of NiO species interacting with the support, due to the hydrogen spillover effect. It was seen that the addition of noble metal stabilized the Ni sites in the reduced state along the reforming reaction, increasing the ethanol and glycerol conversions and decreasing the coke formation. The higher catalytic performance for the ethanol steam reforming at 600 degrees C and glycerol steam reforming was obtained for the NiPd and NiPt catalysts, respectively, which presented an effluent gaseous mixture with the highest H(2) yield with reasonably low amounts of CO. (c) 2009 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrogen production by steam reforming of ethanol over Ni-based catalysts promoted with noble metals

The catalytic activity of Ni/La(2)O(3)-Al(2)O(3) Catalysts modified with noble metals(Pt and Pd) was investigated in the steam reforming of ethanol. The catalysts were characterized by ICP, S(BFT), X-ray diffraction, temperature-programmed reduction, UV-vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and X-ray absorption fine structure (XANES). The results showed that the formation of inactive nickel aluminate was prevented by the presence of La(2)O(3) dispersed on the alumina. The promoting effect of noble metals included a marked decrease in the reduction temperatures of NiO species interacting with the support. due to the hydrogen spillover effect, facilitating greatly the reduction of the promoted catalysts. it was seen that the addition of noble metal stabilized the Ni sites in the reduced state throughout the reaction, increasing ethanol conversion and decreasing coke formation, irrespective of the nature or loading of the noble metal. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Production of hydrogen by ethanol steam reforming on Co/Al2O3 catalysts: Effect of addition of small quantities of noble metals

The catalytic performance of Co/Al2O3 catalysts promoted with small amounts noble metals (Pt, Pd, Ru, Ir) for steam reforming of ethanol (SRE) has been investigated. The catalysts were characterized by the energy dispersive X-ray, X-ray diffraction, BET surface area, X-ray absorption fine structure and temperature reduction programmed techniques. The results showed that the promoting effect of noble metals included a marked decrease of the reduction temperatures of both Co3O4 and cobalt surface species interacting with the support due to the hydrogen spillover effect, leading to a significant increase of the reducibilities of the promoted catalysts. The better catalytic performance for the ethanol steam reforming at 400 degrees C was obtained for the CoRu/Al2O3 catalyst, which presented an effluent gaseous mixture with the highest H, selectivity and the reasonable low CO formation. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Formation Mechanism via a Heterocoagulation Approach of FePt Nanoparticles Using the Modified Polyol Process

Herein, we report a new approach of an FePt nanoparticle formation mechanism studying the evolution of particle size and composition during the synthesis using the modified polyol process. One of the factors limiting their application in ultra-high-density magnetic storage media is the particle-to-particle composition, which affects the A1-to-L1(0) transformation as well as their magnetic properties. There are many controversies in the literature concerning the mechanism of the FePt formation, which seems to be the key to understanding the compositional chemical distribution. Our results convincingly show that, initially, Pt nuclei are formed due to reduction of Pt(acac)(2) by the diol, followed by heterocoagulation of Fe cluster species formed from Fe(acac)(3) thermal decomposition onto the Pt nuclei. Complete reduction of heterocoagulated iron species seems to involve a CO-spillover process, in which the Pt nuclei surface acts as a heterogeneous catalyst, leading to the improvement of the single-particle composition control and allowing a much narrower compositional distribution. Our results show significant decreases in the particle-to-particle composition range, improving the A1-to-L1(0) phase transformation and, consequently, the magnetic properties when compared with other reported methods.

The impact of big-boxes on local retail : What happens when IKEA comes to town?

The development of large discount retailers, or big-boxes as they are sometimes referred to, are often subject to heated debate and their entry on a market is greeted with either great enthusiasm or dread. For instance, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart (Forbes 2014) has a number of anti- and pro-groups dedicated to its being and the event of a Wal-Mart entry tends to be met with protests and campaigns (Decamme 2013) but also welcomed by, for instance, consumers (Davis & DeBonis 2013). Also in Sweden, the entry of a big box is a hot topic and before IKEA’s opening i Borlänge 2013, the first in Sweden in more than five years, great expectations were mixed with worry (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2011).The presence of large scale discount retailers is not, however, a novel phenomenon but a part of a long-term change in retailing that has taken place globally over the past couple of decades (Taylor & Smalling, 2005). As noted by Dawson (2006), the trend in Europe has over the past few decades gone towards an increasing concentration of large firms along with a decrease of smaller firms.This trend is also detectable in the Swedish retail industry. Over the past decade, the retailing industry in Sweden has increased by around 190 Billion SEK, and its share of GDP has risen from 2,7% to 2,9%, while the number of employees have increased from 200 000 to 250 000 (HUI 2013). This growth, however, has not been distributed evenly but rather it has been oriented mainly towards out-of-town retail clusters. Parallel to this development, the number of large retailers has risen at the expense of market shares of smaller independent firms (Rämme et al 2010). Thereby, the presence of large scale retailers is simply part of a changing retail landscape.The effects of this development, where large scale retailing agents relocate shopping to out-of-town shopping areas, have been heavily debated. On the one hand, the big-boxes are accused of displacing independent small retail businesses in the city-centers and the residential areas, resulting in, to some extent, reduced employment opportunities and less availability for the consumers - especially the elderly (Ljungberg et al 2006). In addition, as access to shopping now tends to require some sort of a motorized vehicle, environmental aspects to the discussion have emerged. Ultimately these types of concerns have resulted in calls for regulations against this development (Olsson 2010). On the other hand, the proponents of the new shopping landscape argue that this evolution implies productivity gains, the benefits of lower prices and an increased variety of products (Maican & Orth 2012). Moreover it is argued that it leads to, for instance, better services (such as longer opening hours) and a creative destruction transformation pressure on retailers, which brings about a renewal of city-centerIIretail and services, increasing their attractivity (Bergström 2010). The belief in benefits of a big box entry can be exemplified by the attractivity of IKEA, and the fact that municipalities are prepared to commit to expenses amounting up to hundreds of millions in order to attract the entry of this big-box. Borlänge municipality, for instance, agreed to expenses of about 350 million SEK in order to secure the entry of IKEA, which opened in 2013 (Blomgren 2009).Against this backdrop, the overall effects of large discount retailers become important: Are the economic benefits enough to warrant subsidies or are there, on the contrary, some very compelling grounds for regulations against these types of establishments? In other words; how is overall retail in a region where a store like IKEA enters affected? And how are local retail firms affected?In order to answer these questions, the purpose of this thesis is to study how entry of a big-box retailer affects the entry region. The object of this study is IKEA - one of the world’s largest retailers, with 345 stores, active in over 40 countries and with profits of about 3.3 billion (IKEA 2013; IKEA 2014). By studying the effects of IKEA-entry, both on an aggregated level and on firm level, this thesis intends to find indications of how large discount retail establishments in general can be expected to affect the economic development both in a region overall, but also on the local firm level, something which is of interest to both policymakers as well as the retailing industry in general.The first paper examines the effects of IKEA on retail revenues and employment in the municipalities that IKEA chose to enter between 2000 and 2011; Gothenburg, Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad. By means of a matching method we first identify non-entry municipalities that have a similar probability of IKEA entry as the true entry municipalities. Then, using these non-entry municipalities as a control group, the causal effects of IKEA entry can be estimated using a treatment-control approach. We also extend the analysis to examine the spatial impact of IKEA by estimating the effects on retail in neighboring municipalities. It is found that a new IKEA store increases revenues in durable goods trade with 20% in the entry municipality and the number of employees with 17%. Only small, and in most cases statistically insignificant, negative effects were found in neighboring municipalities.It appears that there is a positive net effect on durables retail sales and employment in the entry municipality. However, the analysis is based on data on an aggregated municipality level and thereby it remains unclear if and how the effects vary within the entry municipalities. In addition, the data used in the first study includes the sales and employment of IKEA itself, which could account for the majority of the increases in employment and retail. Thereby the potential spillover effects on incumbent retailers in the entry municipalities cannot be discerned in the first study.IIITo examine effects of IKEA entry on incumbent retail firms, the second paper in this thesis analyses how IKEA entry affects the revenues and employment of local retail firms in three municipalities; Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad, which experienced entry by IKEA between 2000 and 2010. In this second study, we exclude Gothenburg due to the fact that big-box entry appears to have weaker effects in metropolitan areas (as indicated by Artz & Stone 2006). By excluding Gothenburg we aim to reduce the geographical heterogeneity in our study. We obtain control municipalities that are as similar as possible to the three entry municipalities using the same method as in the previous study, but including a slightly different set of variables in the selection equation. Using similar retail firms in the control municipalities as our comparison group, we estimate the impact of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for retail firms located at varying distances from the IKEA entry site.The results generated in this study imply that entry by IKEA increases revenues in incumbent retail firms by, on average, 11% in the entry municipalities. In addition, we do not find any significant impact on retail revenues in the city centers of the entry municipalities. However, we do find that retail firms within 1 km of the IKEA experience increases in revenues of about 26%, which indicates large spillover effects in the area nearby the entry site. As expected, this impact decreases as we expand the buffer zone: firms located between 0-2 km experiences a 14% increase and firms in 2-5 km experiences an increase of 10%. We do not find any significant impacts on retail employment.

When IKEA enters : Do local retailers win or lose?

IKEA is one of the world’s largest retailers, but little is known about how IKEA impact incumbent retailers when deciding to enter a local market. Previous studies on the effects of big-box entry on surrounding retailers have also generated inconclusive results, and mainly been focused towards entry of Wal-Mart in the United States. We contribute to this literature by investigating the effects of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for incumbent retail firms in three Swedish municipalities during 2000-2010. Our results indicate that a new IKEA store increases average revenues for incumbent retailers within the entry municipality by 11%, but also that the effect is highly heterogeneous within the municipality. Retailers that were located up to 1 km from IKEA experienced a 26% increase in revenues when IKEA entered the municipality. However, the positive spillover effect of a new IKEA store on retail revenues diminished with the distance to IKEA, and turned insignificant for retailers in the city centers and those that were located 5-10 km from IKEA. The effects on employment were much less pronounced, and in most cases statistically insignificant.

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.

The effects of Ikea and external shopping centers on regional trade and retail growth : A comparative analysis of Ikea’s establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad

This paper examines the effects of Ikea store establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad on the trade and retail inside the two cities, and as well on the trade and retail in the close neighboring municipalities and in further peripheral municipalities in both regions. After the establishment of Ikea store, Kalmar and Karlstad have experienced significant growth in trade and retail. The question, however, is how big this growth is in both cities? And how different locations on different distances from Ikea have been affected? What impact there was on different segments of the retail? How different business branches have been affected? How large the catchment area for the emerging new large-scale retail locations is? These questions, in addition to few others, are investigated in this paper. The thesis starts with an introduction chapter containing a background of the topic, problem description, the investigated questions, the purpose, and the outline of the paper. The next chapter includes the frame of reference which consists of literature review and theoretical framework about the external shopping centers and their impact on retail and regional trade development. It includes also information gathered from previous studies technical reports and other available sources about the subject. The third chapter includes description for the methods used to collect the primary and secondary data needed for the purpose of this study. Then the empirical framework which demonstrates the results of the conducted research followed by analysis and concluded in discussion and conclusion. Mixed methods are used as research strategy in this thesis, and the method to conduct the research is based on telephone interviews for the primary (qualitative) data, and documents and desk research for the secondary (quantitative) data. The gathered data is analyzed and designed in a way that allows the usage of comparative analysis technique to present the findings and draw conclusions. The results showed that new established Ikea retail store outside the city boundaries results with many effects on the city center and on the neighboring municipalities as well. The city center seems not to be affected negatively, but on the contrary positive effects were witnessed in both regions, these positive effects are linked to the increase inflow of customers from the external retail area which is known as spillover effect. III On the other hand, the neighboring towns and municipalities are more negatively affected especially with the trade of con-convenience goods as the consumers in these towns and municipalities start to go to the area of Ikea and the large external retail center to do their purchasing, the substitution effect is then said to be occurred. Moreover, the further far municipalities do not seem to be significantly affected by the establishment of Ikea. These effects whether positive or negative could be monitored by looking to few trade parameters such as the turnover, the sales index, and the consumers’ expenditure, these parameters can be very useful to measure the developments and changes in the trade and retail in a given place. 

Evaluation of the effectiveness of marine protected areas in temperate waters of Australasia

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in temperate waters of Australasia has been conducted for this thesis. The aim was to identify key elements needed in a strategy for establishment and management of MPA’s in temperate waters of Australasia. This aim was achieved by assessing how effective a sample of MPA’s has been in meeting the conservation objectives for their establishment and by identifying factors that have contributed to success or failure of the MPA’s in meeting these objectives. Particular attention was paid to the objectives of ecological sustainability and biodiversity preservation. A MPA for the purposes of this research was defined as an area of coastal or marine environment, with a substantial subtidal component, set aside by law primarily for conservation purposes. The study region encompassed the coastal zones of Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia (Australia) and New Zealand. The questions posed in order to address the aim of this thesis were; a) Have existing MPA’s been effective in achieving conservation objectives? b) What have been the important influences on effectiveness of existing MPA’s? c) What are the key elements required for implementation of effective MPA’s? The thesis is divided into three parts. Part I is a review of the literature on implementation and effectiveness of MPA’s. Part II presents a detailed evaluation of one MPA: Point Lonsdale Marine Reserve (PLMR), Victoria, Australia. Part in is an evaluation of a number of Australasian temperate MPA’s based on information provided in a survey of people involved in management of MPA’s, and from a variety of published and unpublished documents. The MPA’s are described, evidence about ecological effectiveness is presented and factors that have enhanced and limited the ability of these MPA’s to achieve conservation objectives are derived. A substantial amount of scientific evidence was found for increases in abundance, mean size and size range of fish and invertebrate populations within the boundaries of ‘no-take’ MPA’s, Some evidence was found for ‘spillover’ of adults and juveniles into adjacent fishing grounds. Ecological effects detected within ‘no-take’ MPA’s in Australasia matched those described in the literature. The abundance and mean size of a number of previously exploited species have increased, migration into adjacent fishing grounds has been documented, and species richness has increased in at least one MPA. The PLMR was established primarily to protect the scientifically significant intertidal rock platforms. The results of the case study suggest that this objective has been achieved. Opinions about effectiveness were obtained for 28 MPA’s. Of these 19 were considered to be achieving some objectives and 10 were considered to be performing well in terms of overall ecological effectiveness. Positive effects on biodiversity were generally assumed as a result of reduction of damaging anthropogenic effects on habitat. Many questionnaire respondents noted an increase in community awareness about and support for marine conservation as a result of proclamation of MPA’s, Overall, the results support the value of MPA’s for sustainability of fish stocks and preservation of biodiversity, but there is substantial doubt over whether some of the MPA’s are too small to maintain benefits in the long-term. ‘No-take’ MPA’s, particularly those more remote from the impacts of human activities, have been the most effective in achieving objectives. A number of interacting factors important to eventual success of MPA’s were identified. The most important enhancing factors identified for the PLMR were physical attributes that limit the extent of human use and a strong conservation ethic amongst many of the visitors to this marine reserve. Limiting factors were far more numerous. Of most concern is the inadequacy of at-site management. Almost half of visitors to the area were not aware of its marine reserve status, despite the fact many were frequent visitors. The need for better educational and interpretative material on-site is highlighted by the results of the PLMR visitor survey. A total of 56 factors that have enhanced effectiveness and 46 factors that have limited effectiveness of Australasian temperate MPA’s were identified. A number of factors were important in more than one MPA and this was used to derive a set of critical, or key, factors. For example, a conclusion of all three approaches used in this study is that failure to implement day-to-day management through lack of resources was a major constraint on effectiveness. The importance of MPA’s to marine conservation depends, in part, on how well they are managed. The key factors that influence MPA effectiveness were used as the basis for derivation of the main requirements for implementation of MPA’s that will be capable of meeting the objectives for their establishment. The most important needs are: • that ‘no-take’ areas surrounded by buffer zones form the basis for a system of MPA’s; • that a high level of protection is bestowed by legislation and regulations; • that a minimum size be set for the ‘no-take’ core areas; • that the selection of sites for MPA’s takes into account land-based impacts; • that institutional arrangements are developed specifically for MPA’s; • that funding for MPA’s is increased to enable effective management; • that day-to-day management is implemented in all MPA’s, with enforcement and education programs as priority areas; • that a monitoring program for one or more MPA in each 'State' is established to provide evidence of ecological effects of reservation; • that public and stakeholder involvement in development and implementation of MPA’s is encouraged as this will influence the degree of public support and compliance; • that community-based programs to educate the general public, stakeholders, the media and decision-makers about the value of MPA’s are essential; and • that measures to reduce financial impact on affected stakeholders be implemented.