Geostical analysis of spatial dynamics of Citrus Variegated Chlorossis

The spatial dynamics of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC) was studied in a five-year old commercial orchard of 'Valencia' sweet orange (Citrus sp.) trees, located in the northern region of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. One thousand trees were assessed in 25 rows of 40 trees, planted at 8 x 5 m spacing. Disease incidence data were taken beginning in March 1994 and ending in January 1996, at intervals of four to five months. Disease aggregation was observed through the dispersion index analysis (Ib), which was calculated by dividing the area into quadrants. CVC spatial dynamics was examined using semivariogram analysis, which revealed that the disease was aggregated in the field forming foci of 10 to 14 m. For each well-fitted model, a kriging map was created to better visualize the distribution of the disease. The spherical model was the best fit for the data in this study. Kriging maps also revealed that the incidence of CVC increased in periods during which the trees underwent vegetative growth, coinciding with greater expected occurrence of insect vectors of the bacterium in the field.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field.

A geostatistical analysis of soil, vegetation, and image data characterizing land surface variation

The elucidation of spatial variation in the landscape can indicate potential wildlife habitats or breeding sites for vectors, such as ticks or mosquitoes, which cause a range of diseases. Information from remotely sensed data could aid the delineation of vegetation distribution on the ground in areas where local knowledge is limited. The data from digital images are often difficult to interpret because of pixel-to-pixel variation, that is, noise, and complex variation at more than one spatial scale. Landsat Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Satellite Pour l'Observation de La Terre (SPOT) image data were analyzed for an area close to Douna in Mali, West Africa. The variograms of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from both types of image data were nested. The parameters of the nested variogram function from the Landsat ETM+ data were used to design the sampling for a ground survey of soil and vegetation data. Variograms of the soil and vegetation data showed that their variation was anisotropic and their scales of variation were similar to those of NDVI from the SPOT data. The short- and long-range components of variation in the SPOT data were filtered out separately by factorial kriging. The map of the short-range component appears to represent the patterns of vegetation and associated shallow slopes and drainage channels of the tiger bush system. The map of the long-range component also appeared to relate to broader patterns in the tiger bush and to gentle undulations in the topography. The results suggest that the types of image data analyzed in this study could be used to identify areas with more moisture in semiarid regions that could support wildlife and also be potential vector breeding sites.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphometric analysis of aeolian bedforms in the Namib Sand Sea using ASTER data

The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) has made elevation data at 30 m spatial resolution freely available, enabling reinvestigation of morphometric relationships derived from limited field data using much larger sample sizes. These data are used to analyse a range of morphometric relationships derived for dunes (between dune height, spacing, and equivalent sand thickness) in the Namib Sand Sea, which was chosen because there are a number of extant studies that could be used for comparison with the results. The relative accuracy of GDEM for capturing dune height and shape was tested against multiple individual ASTER DEM scenes and against field surveys, highlighting the smoothing of the dune crest and resultant underestimation of dune height, and the omission of the smallest dunes, because of the 30 m sampling of ASTER DEM products. It is demonstrated that morphometric relationships derived from GDEM data are broadly comparable with relationships derived by previous methods, across a range of different dune types. The data confirm patterns of dune height, spacing and equivalent sand thickness mapped previously in the Namib Sand Sea, but add new detail to these patterns.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Dynamic Changes in the Mental Rotation Network Revealed by Pattern Recognition Analysis of fMRI Data

We investigated the temporal dynamics and changes in connectivity in the mental rotation network through the application of spatio-temporal support vector machines (SVMs). The spatio-temporal SVM [Mourao-Miranda, J., Friston, K. J., et al. (2007). Dynamic discrimination analysis: A spatial-temporal SVM. Neuroimage, 36, 88-99] is a pattern recognition approach that is suitable for investigating dynamic changes in the brain network during a complex mental task. It does not require a model describing each component of the task and the precise shape of the BOLD impulse response. By defining a time window including a cognitive event, one can use spatio-temporal fMRI observations from two cognitive states to train the SVM. During the training, the SVM finds the discriminating pattern between the two states and produces a discriminating weight vector encompassing both voxels and time (i.e., spatio-temporal maps). We showed that by applying spatio-temporal SVM to an event-related mental rotation experiment, it is possible to discriminate between different degrees of angular disparity (0 degrees vs. 20 degrees, 0 degrees vs. 60 degrees, and 0 degrees vs. 100 degrees), and the discrimination accuracy is correlated with the difference in angular disparity between the conditions. For the comparison with highest accuracy (08 vs. 1008), we evaluated how the most discriminating areas (visual regions, parietal regions, supplementary, and premotor areas) change their behavior over time. The frontal premotor regions became highly discriminating earlier than the superior parietal cortex. There seems to be a parcellation of the parietal regions with an earlier discrimination of the inferior parietal lobe in the mental rotation in relation to the superior parietal. The SVM also identified a network of regions that had a decrease in BOLD responses during the 100 degrees condition in relation to the 0 degrees condition (posterior cingulate, frontal, and superior temporal gyrus). This network was also highly discriminating between the two conditions. In addition, we investigated changes in functional connectivity between the most discriminating areas identified by the spatio-temporal SVM. We observed an increase in functional connectivity between almost all areas activated during the 100 degrees condition (bilateral inferior and superior parietal lobe, bilateral premotor area, and SMA) but not between the areas that showed a decrease in BOLD response during the 100 degrees condition.

Performance Analysis of MODIS 500-m Spatial Resolution Products for Estimating Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Oligo-to Meso-Trophic Waters Case Study: Itumbiara Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Geospatial analysis of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) encroachment utilizing remotely sensed data

Utilizing remote sensing methods to assess landscape-scale ecological change are rapidly becoming a dominant force in the natural sciences. Powerful and robust non-parametric statistical methods are also actively being developed to compliment the unique characteristics of remotely sensed data. The focus of this research is to utilize these powerful, robust remote sensing and statistical approaches to shed light on woody plant encroachment into native grasslands--a troubling ecological phenomenon occurring throughout the world. Specifically, this research investigates western juniper encroachment within the sage-steppe ecosystem of the western USA. Western juniper trees are native to the intermountain west and are ecologically important by means of providing structural diversity and habitat for many species. However, after nearly 150 years of post-European settlement changes to this threatened ecosystem, natural ecological processes such as fire regimes no longer limit the range of western juniper to rocky refugia and other areas protected from short fire return intervals that are historically common to the region. Consequently, sage-steppe communities with high juniper densities exhibit negative impacts, such as reduced structural diversity, degraded wildlife habitat and ultimately the loss of biodiversity. Much of today's sage-steppe ecosystem is transitioning to juniper woodlands. Additionally, the majority of western juniper woodlands have not reached their full potential in both range and density. The first section of this research investigates the biophysical drivers responsible for juniper expansion patterns observed in the sage-steppe ecosystem. The second section is a comprehensive accuracy assessment of classification methods used to identify juniper tree cover from multispectral 1 m spatial resolution aerial imagery.

Statistical analysis of multichannel scalp field data

High density spatial and temporal sampling of EEG data enhances the quality of results of electrophysiological experiments. Because EEG sources typically produce widespread electric fields (see Chapter 3) and operate at frequencies well below the sampling rate, increasing the number of electrodes and time samples will not necessarily increase the number of observed processes, but mainly increase the accuracy of the representation of these processes. This is namely the case when inverse solutions are computed. As a consequence, increasing the sampling in space and time increases the redundancy of the data (in space, because electrodes are correlated due to volume conduction, and time, because neighboring time points are correlated), while the degrees of freedom of the data change only little. This has to be taken into account when statistical inferences are to be made from the data. However, in many ERP studies, the intrinsic correlation structure of the data has been disregarded. Often, some electrodes or groups of electrodes are a priori selected as the analysis entity and considered as repeated (within subject) measures that are analyzed using standard univariate statistics. The increased spatial resolution obtained with more electrodes is thus poorly represented by the resulting statistics. In addition, the assumptions made (e.g. in terms of what constitutes a repeated measure) are not supported by what we know about the properties of EEG data. From the point of view of physics (see Chapter 3), the natural “atomic” analysis entity of EEG and ERP data is the scalp electric field