Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

One of Us or One of Them: A Generic Qualitative Study on the Efficacy of the Funds of Knowledge Strategy to Reduce Teacher Ethnocentrism

The purpose of this study was to examine whether English a Second Language (ESL) instructors’ ethnocentrism could be reduced using multicultural education (MCE) principles. There were three focus group discussions and a Likert scale questionnaire. The findings demonstrated that while ESL instructors were conscious of systemic barriers, media stereotypes, and bullying, more diversity training is required in order to improve teachers’ attitudes, responses, and instructional strategies regarding integration issues due to the increasing diversity of learners present in classrooms today. The findings of the study also demonstrated that MCE principles could be used to effectively raise the awareness of ESL instructors when dealing with integration and assimilation issues. When immigration, human rights, and multicultural policies were examined critically, ESL instructors were able to improve their cross-cultural skills in the classroom to be more inclusive towards diverse ethnic groups by giving learners greater opportunities to express themselves. As a result, learners’ knowledge, experience, and skills were validated in the classroom leading to a more meaningful learning experience.

Library Open Access publishing funds

Presentation on scope, successes and challenges facing library Open Access publishing funds delivered at the Canadian Association of Learned Journals meeting at Congress 2014, Brock University, St. Catharines, ON, Canada. Focus on Canada but also some info on the U.S.

Illustration - "Grape Culture - A new Source of Canadian Wealth"

An illustration from the "Canadian Illustrated News" that shows a group of individuals "gathering the fruit" and then a "scene in the vineyard".

The effect of asymetric preferences on the federal funds rate.

Rapport de recherche

Oil Wealth and Economic Behavior Iran 1960-2000.

Rapport de recherche

Valuing Sovereign Default Risk - A Pricing Formula and its Empirical Results for the Mexican External Debt.

Rapport de recherche

Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Return Generating Process: A Macroeconomic Approach to Indian Stock Market

A study focusing on the identification of return generating factors and to the extent of their influence on share prices the outcome will be a tool for investment analysis in the hands of investors portfolio managers and mutual funds who are mostly concerned with changing share prices. Since the study takes into account the influence of macroeconomic variables on variations in share returns by using the outcome the government can frame out suitable policies on long term basis and that will help in nurturing a healthy economy and resultant stock market. As every company management tries to maximize the wealth of the share holders a clear idea about the return generating variables and their influence will help the management to frame various policies to maximize the wealth of the shareholders.