Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Lizards of the Thar Desert - Resource partitioning and community composition

How similar species co-exist in nature is a fundamental question in community ecology. Resource partitioning has been studied in desert lizard communities across four continents, but data from South Asia is lacking. We used area-constrained visual encounter surveys to study community composition and spatial and temporal resource partitioning in a lizard community during summer in the Thar Desert, western India, addressing an important biogeographic gap in knowledge. Twelve one-hectare grids divided into 25 m x 25 m plots were placed across four habitats barren dunes, stabilized dunes, grassland, and rocky hills. We recorded 1039 sightings of 12 species during 84 sampling sessions. Lizard abundance decreased in the order stabilized dunes > grassland > barren dunes > rocky hills; richness was in roughly the opposite order. Resource partitioning was examined for the seven commonest species. Overall spatial overlap was low (<0.6) between species pairs. Overlap was higher within habitats, but species showed finer separation through use of different microhabitat categories and specific spatial resources, as well as by positioning at different distances to vegetation. Diurnal species were also separated by peak time of activity. Space appears to be an important resource dimension facilitating coexistence in this desert lizard community. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

A taxonomic mystery for more than 180 years: the identity and systematic position of Brachysaura minor (HARDWICKE & GRAY, 1827)

Brachysaura is a monotypic genus of agamid lizard found in the Indian subcontinent; the identity and systematic position of B. minor has been long debated, and it has at times been subsumed into Agama, Charasia and Laudakia, with some authors suggesting affinities to Calotes. We constructed nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenetic trees including Brachysaura and allied agamid genera to resolve its phylogenetic position. We also compared osteology and external morphology with the genera Agama, Calotes and Laudakia. Hemipenial morphology was compared with Calotes and some other agamids from South Asia. Both nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies demonstrate that Brachysaura is nested within the widespread South and Southeast Asian genus Calotes, with which it also shares certain external morphological, osteological and hemipenial characters. Adaptations to ground dwelling in Brachysaura minor has resulted in unique modifications to its body plan, which is likely why generic allocation has been long confused. This study also highlights the need for an integrated systematic approach to resolve taxonomic ambiguity in Asian agamids.

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Polaridade regional e percepção de ameaças: comparando as políticas de defesa de África do Sul, Brasil e Índia

Tendo como pressuposto teórico a regionalização das questões de segurança internacional no pós Guerra Fria, esta dissertação objetiva realizar uma análise comparativa da Política de Defesa de três potências regionais, quais sejam, África do Sul, Brasil e Índia, identificando percepção de ameaça no âmbito das suas políticas de defesa. Para fazê-lo, fez-se necessário ter em consideração as capacidades materiais (inspirado no neorrealismo e realismo neoclássico), e os aspectos relativos à percepção de ameaças, numa dimensão ampliada dos estudos de segurança (inspirados pela Escola de Copenhague). Com isso em mente, este trabalho lida com a literatura sobre a segurança regional e as potências regionais, a qual se baseia em vários pressupostos teóricos Neorrealistas, Realistas Neoclássicos e da Escola de Copenhague. A proposição heurística que guia este trabalho é, dado que a percepção de ameaça externa vem de uma leitura, feita pelo Estado, do seu contexto regional, um Estado com baixo nível de ameaças externas tende a vincular de forma mais intensiva de segurança com o desenvolvimento. As fontes utilizadas são dados quantitativos (Composite Index of National Capabilities do projeto Correlates of War), que permitem avaliar a distribuição de capacidades materiais em três regiões (América do Sul, África do Sul, e no Sul da Ásia) e, principalmente, as políticas declaratórias de defesa, os documentos que carregam percepção dos Estados em relação à segurança. Na comparação dos casos, dois aspectos são o foco para a análise do discurso de segurança: as percepções de segurança sobre as suas regiões, o nexo entre segurança e desenvolvimento.

Y chromosome haplotypes reveal prehistorical migrations to the Himalayas

By using 19 Y chromosome biallelic markers and 3 Y chromosome microsatellite markers, we analyzed the genetic structure of 31 indigenous Sino-Tibetan speaking populations (607 individuals) currently residing in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Our results showed that a T to C mutation at locus M122 is highly prevalent in almost all of the Sino-Tibetan populations, implying a strong genetic affinity among populations in the same language family. Furthermore, the extremely high frequency of H8, a haplotype derived from M122C, in the Sino-Tibetan speaking populations in the Himalayas including Tibet and northeast India indicated a strong bottleneck effect that occurred during a westward and then southward migration of the founding population of Tibeto-Burmans. We, therefore, postulate that the ancient people, who lived in the upper-middle Yellow River basin about 10,000 years ago and developed one of the earliest Neolithic cultures in East Asia, were the ancestors of modem Sino-Tibetan populations.

Generic allocation of Indian and Sri Lankan Philautus (Anura: Rhacophoridae) inferred from 12S and 16S rRNA genes

The generic allocation of Indian and Sri Lankan Philautus needs further examination. In this study, a comprehensive understanding of the phylogeny of Indian and Sri Lankan Philautus is obtained based on 125 and 16S rRNA genes. All phylogenetic analyses indicate that Indian-Sri Lankan Philautus, Philautus menglaensis, Philautus longchuanensis, and Philautus gryllus form a well supported clade, separate from Philautus of Sunda Islands that form another well supported clade representing true Philautus. This result supports the designation of the genus Pseudophilautus to accommodate the Indian and Sri Lankan species. Pseudophilautus consists of two major lineages, one comprises the majority of Indian species, Chinese species, and Southeast Asian species, and one comprises all Sri Lankan species and a few Indian species. Pseudophilautus may have originated in South Asia and dispersed into Southeast Asia and China. Based on the results, we further suggest that Philautus cf. gryllus (MNHN1997.5460) belongs to the genus Kurixalus. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

中国西部大气和雪冰黑碳及其传输过程研究

Glaciers in west China are the sources of the major great rivers in Asia, and the solid water resources are crucial to China and South Asia. Black carbon (BC) results in very complex climate effects not only in the atmosphere, but accelerates the melting after its deposit on the surface of snow/ice. As the main distributed area of glaciers in China, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Xinjiang region are abutted by South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia, and east China, and the atmospheric environment would be influenced by the BC emitted from these regions. Whereas, the BC’s temporal and spatial distributions for concentration in the mid and top troposphere in west China, its transport, and its radiative forcing after deposited on the snow/ice surface are not well understood at the present. In the field, we collected samples from surface snow, snow pits, ice core, and aerosol in the glaciers, analyzed BC content mainly by the thermo-oxidized method in the laboratory, and discussed temporal and spatial distributions for BC concentrations in glaciers, the transport, and its impacts on the environment. Several conclusions were derived as follows: 1_Spatial distribution and the impact on albedos for BC concentrations in snow/ice: the BC concentrations in the surface snow for the investigated glaciers could be placed in areas, the Tianshan Mountains ＞ the central TP ＞ the Pamirs ＞ the Qilian Mountians ＞ the Himalayas. This distribution could be attributed to the elevation of the glaciers, the topography of the TP, and more regional emissions. Probably significant impacts on the albedos of the glacier surface could be caused by BC deposits, and the estimated reduced albedos on the glaciers are 9.8% (the Zhadang glacier), 8.7% (the Miao’ergou Riverhead No.3 glacier), and 6.8% (the Kuitun River Haxilegen No.48 glacier), and 6.2% (the Dongkemadi glacier), and 5.3% (the La’nong glacier), and 4.2% (the Muztagata glacier), etc. 2_The temporal variance of BC concentrations in ice of the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG) and its climatic implications: major cations and anions (e.g., SO42- and Ca2+) concentrations in aerosols during summer monsoon seasons showed their close relationships with the sources of air masses, in which the variance of SO42- concentrations suggested the atmospheric environment over the ERG was significantly influenced by the aerosols from South Asia. BC record based on an ice core suggested its deposit was dominantly transported by monsoons in summers and by westerlies in other seasons, and the BC from South Asia in summers dominated the varying trend of its concentrations in the ice core and caused higher concentrations in summers than those in other seasons. In the past 50 yrs, BC concentrations showed fluctuations, whereas showed an increasing tread in the most recent decade, and exceeded 50 μg kg-1 in the summer of 2001; correspondingly, the radiative forcing caused by BC showed an increasing trend since 1990s, and exceeded 4.5 W m-2 in the summer of 2001. 3_Cabonaceous aerosols in the Nam Co region: organic carbon (OC) concentration accounted for ～95% and BC for ～5% in the total carbonaceous aerosol concentration, which was significantly influenced by summer precipitations. OC was dominantly derived from fossil fuel burning and BC from both fossil fuel and biomass burning. Trajectory analysis and aerosol optical depth suggested the atmospheric environment in the Nam Co region was most probably influenced by the emissions from South Asia. The potential source regions of air pollutants in the Nam Co regions in summers might be Bangladesh and east India, and in winters might be the Indo-gangetic basin. The scavenging ratio of atmospheric BC by rainfalls was less than those at other sites. West China is a less-developed region for industry, where BC concentrations in the atmosphere and snow/ice could be significantly influenced by the emissions from the abutted regions with rising industries (South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia). For example, snow/ice BC concentrations in the glaciers of the Parmirs, the Tianshan Mountains, and the Qilian Mountains in the northeast margin of the TP might be more influenced by the emissions from Centrial Asia (transported by the westerlies), those in the glaciers of the Himalayas might be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies), and atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols might also be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies). The BC concentrations in some glaciers might cause significant impacts on the albedos for the glaciers, and therefore enhanced the radiative forcings, for example, the ERG. The research on the relationships among atmospheric and snow/ice BC and its radiative forcing, variance of snow cover, mass balance of glaciers, and climate forcing would be needed in future.

中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

珠穆朗玛峰东绒布冰川表层雪中的气候和环境记录

Snow chemistry research helps to found the basis of studying ice cores. Samples of fresh snow and snow pits were collected from East Rongbuk Glacier on the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma during October, 2002. Major soluble ions (Na~+, NH_4~+, K~+, Mg~(2+), Ca~(2+), Cl~-, NO_3~- and SO_4~(2-)) andδ~(18)O were detected for analysis. Source analysis showed that major sources contributing to the snow chemistry in Mt. Qomolangma region are remote Asian dust and salt lake dust, sea-salt aerosols from Indian monsoon, local rock-mineral dust, human activities and natural atmospheric procedures. Principal factor analysis indicated that high-concentration group was dominated by continental dust with little oceanic source, indicating continental or local precipitation, while the low group dominated by oceanic aerosols indicated oceanic precipitation. Local mineral dust was a minor a source characterized mainly by Ca~(2+), Mg~(2+) contribution. Ammonia related mainly with continental dusts and nitrogen-circulation processes in the atmosphere, it also had a peculiar source should be seasonal agriculture activities in the south Asia. Nitrate showed bad correlations with other ions for its special chemical characteristics. δ~(18)O and major soluble ions displayed obvious seasonal variations. The summer precipitation had very low ion loadings and relatively lower heavy oxygen isotope from the Indian Ocean with occasionally ion peaks formed by local evaporation. While the winter and spring precipitation had high ion loadings and δ~(18)O value for the great amount of continental dust and evaporated vapors. Frequent fluctuations of δ~(18)O and ion concentration occur during the transitional period, indicating alternated precipitations by various air mass types. Ion concentration in snow from the Qomolangma region is comparable with from the Antactica, representing relatively pure background of atmospheric environment on earth. While the high concentration is close to the glaciers' located near the major sources of Asian dust. Compared with the snow chemistry of South Slope of Mt. Qomolangma, the North Slope has lower sea-salt ion concentration during summer monsoon and higher concentration of all major ions during pre- and post-monsoon period due to it's special geophysical location.

Indian Architecture: Social and Political Challenges

The objective of this paper is to reassess the central factors which have shaped the Indian architecture. The author puts forward the concept of plurality introduced by Western art historians and argues that the diversity of the Indian architecture should not be explained in terms of religious differences, but in terms of the socio-economical situation in South Asia. He also elaborates on the Hindu caste system and its impact on the Indian architecture.

Justifying jihad: US politics, propaganda and the Afghan mujahedeen

Hard-line anti-communists in the United States recognised the potential for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to embroil their super-power rival in a ‘Vietnam-like quagmire.’ Their covert operation to arm the mujahedeen is well documented. This dissertation argues that propaganda and public diplomacy were powerful and essential instruments of this campaign. It examines the protagonists of this strategy, their policies, initiatives and programmes offering a comprehensive analysis heretofore absent. It stretches from the dying days of the Carter administration when Zbigniew Brzezinski saw the ‘opportunity’ presented by the invasion to the Soviet’s withdrawal in 1989. The aim of these information strategies was to damage Soviet credibility and enhance that of the US, considered under threat from growing ‘moral equivalence’ amongst international publics. The conflict could help the US regain strategic advantage in South Asia undermined by the ‘loss’ of Iran. The Reagan administration used it to justify the projection of US military might that it believed was eviscerated under Carter and emasculated by the lingering legacy of Vietnam. The research engages with source material from the Reagan Presidential Library, the United States Information Agency archives and the Library of Congress as well as a number of online archives. The material is multi-archival and multi-media including documentaries, booklets, press conferences, summit programmes and news-clips as well as national security policy documents and contemporaneous media commentary. It concludes that propaganda and public diplomacy were integral to the Reagan administration and other mujahedeen supporters’ determination to challenge the USSR. It finds that the conflict was used to justify military rearmament, further strategic aims and reassert US power. These Cold War machinations had a considerable impact on the course of the conflict and undermined efforts at resolution and reconciliation with profound implications for the future stability of Afghanistan and the world.

‘Martial races’ and ‘imperial subjects’: violence and governance in colonial India, 1857–1914

This essay explores the specificity of colonial violence in India. Although imperial and military historians are familiar with several instances of such violence—notably the rebellion in 1857 and the 1919 massacre at the Jallianwalla Bagh in Amritsar—there is a broader, and arguably more significant, history that has largely escaped attention. In contrast to metropolitan European states, where sovereignty derived, at least in principle, from a covenant between subjects and government, the sovereign power of the colonial state was always predicated on the violent subjugation of ‘the natives’. However, while violence was integral to colonialism, such violence was never a purely metropolitan agency: most of those recruited to serve in the colonial military were, themselves, Indian. Exploring the history of the imperial military in South Asia after 1857, the paper outlines the complex and rather ambiguous relationship between the colonial state and its ‘native armies’. RESUME Cet article se penche sur la spe´cificite´ de la violence coloniale. Malgre´ des exemples familiers—comme la grande re´volte de 1857 en Inde ou le massacre de Jallianwalla Bagh a` Amritsar en 1919—il y a une histoire plus large et plus importante qui a e´chappe´e a` l’attention des historiens. Contrairement aux e´tats europe´ens ou la souverainete´ de´rivait en principe du moins d’un contrat social entre les acteurs sociaux, le pouvoir souverain de l’e´tat colonial restait fonde´ sur la subjugation violente des indige`nes.