An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Tourism life cycle, tourism competitiveness and upgrading strategies in the Caribbean

In the 1980s Butler adapted the life cycle product model to the tourism industry and created the “Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model”. The model recognizes six stages in the tourism product life cycle: exploration, investment, development, consolidation, stagnation and followed, after stagnation, by decline or revitalization of the product. These six stages can in turn be regrouped into four main stages. The Butler model has been applied to more than 30 country cases with a wide degree of success. De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy (1992) applied the TALC model to 23 small Caribbean island States in the 1990s. Following De Albuquerque and Mc Elroy, the TALC is applied to the 32 member countries of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (except for Cancun and Cozumel) to locate their positions along their tourism life-cycle in 2007. This is done using the following indicators: the evolution of the level, market share and growth rate of stay-over arrivals; the growth rate and market share of visitor expenditures per arrival and the tourism styles of the destinations, differentiating between ongoing mass tourism and niche marketing strategies and among upscale, mid-scale and low-scale destinations. Countries have pursued three broad classes of strategies over the last 15 years in order to move upward in their tourism life cycle and enhance their tourism competitiveness. There is first a strategy that continues to rely on mass-tourism to build on the comparative advantages of “sun, sand and sea”, scale economies, all-inclusive packages and large amounts of investment to move along in Stage 2 or Stage 3 (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico). There is a second strategy pursued mainly by very small islands that relies on developing specific niche markets to maintain tourism competitiveness through upgrading (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos), allowing them to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or Stage 3 to a rejuvenation stage. There is a third strategy that uses a mix of mass-tourism, niche marketing and quality upgrading either to emerge onto the intermediate stage (Trinidad and Tobago); avoid decline (Aruba, The Bahamas) or rejuvenate (Barbados, Jamaica and the United States Virgin Islands). There have been many success stories in Caribbean tourism competitiveness and further research should aim at empirically testing the determinants of tourism competitiveness for the region as a whole.

Tourism in the Caribbean: competitiveness, upgrading, linkages and the role of public private partnerships (PPP) and public policy

The main purpose of this paper is to explore and analyze the contributions that publicprivate partnerships and public policy have made in the development of tourism in the Caribbean as tools for enhancing competitiveness in the Caribbean tourism industry. The paper explores these contributions mainly in the context of the upgrading strategies that Caribbean countries have pursued over the past 15 years or so and using the lens of the tourism value chain and tourism cluster approach. The paper also analyzes the potential roles that public-private partnerships and public policy will continue to play in the future especially in the process of building linkages between the tourism sector and other sectors in order to increase net benefits from tourism to the Region. This paper is divided into five sections. In Section I, we define public-private partnerships (PPP) and describe the areas in tourism where PPP are most widely used, the tools used to implement PPP in tourism and the various forms of PPP. Economic arguments are then laid to motivate PPP as a determinant of tourism competitiveness using the tourism value-chain and tourism cluster approach. Specific case examples illustrating the contributions of PPP and public policy towards increasing tourism competitiveness are provided at a regional level and for specific areas in Sections II and III respectively. Section IV summarizes findings from the previous two sections and discusses ways to enhance the effectiveness of PPP and public policy in Caribbean tourism for increased competitiveness. Section V analyzes a few of the challenges that the Caribbean tourism sector is facing. The final section proposes new areas of intervention for PPP and public policy as tools for enhancing competitiveness in the Caribbean tourism sector in order to assist the region in addressing these challenges.

Tourism in the Caribbean: competitiveness, upgrading, linkages and the role of public private partnerships (PPP) and public policy

The main purpose of this paper is to explore and analyze the contributions that publicprivate partnerships and public policy have made in the development of tourism in the Caribbean as tools for enhancing competitiveness in the Caribbean tourism industry. The paper explores these contributions mainly in the context of the upgrading strategies that Caribbean countries have pursued over the past 15 years or so and using the lens of the tourism value chain and tourism cluster approach. The paper also analyzes the potential roles that public-private partnerships and public policy will continue to play in the future especially in the process of building linkages between the tourism sector and other sectors in order to increase net benefits from tourism to the Region. This paper is divided into five sections. In Section I, we define public-private partnerships (PPP) and describe the areas in tourism where PPP are most widely used, the tools used to implement PPP in tourism and the various forms of PPP. Economic arguments are then laid to motivate PPP as a determinant of tourism competitiveness using the tourism value-chain and tourism cluster approach. Specific case examples illustrating the contributions of PPP and public policy towards increasing tourism competitiveness are provided at a regional level and for specific areas in Sections II and III respectively. Section IV summarizes findings from the previous two sections and discusses ways to enhance the effectiveness of PPP and public policy in Caribbean tourism for increased competitiveness. Section V analyzes a few of the challenges that the Caribbean tourism sector is facing. The final section proposes new areas of intervention for PPP and public policy as tools for enhancing competitiveness in the Caribbean tourism sector in order to assist the region in addressing these challenges.

Climate change and the tourism sector: the clean development mechanism, a market instrument under the Kyoto Protocol to achieve multiple objectives

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an instrument created under a global international treaty, can achieve multiple objectives beyond those for which it has been established. As such, while being already a powerful tool to contribute to the global fight against climate change, the CDM can also be successful if applied to different sectors not contemplated before. In particular, this research aimed at demonstrating that a wider utilization of the CDM in the tourism sector can represent an innovative way to foster sustainable tourism and generate additional benefits. The CDM was created by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and represents an innovative tool to reduce greenhouse gases emissions through the implementation of mitigation activities in developing countries which generate certified emission reductions (CERs), each of them equivalent to one ton of CO2 not emitted in the atmosphere. These credits can be used for compliance reasons by industrialized countries in achieving their reduction targets. The logic path of this research begins with an analysis of the scientific evidences of climate change and its impacts on different economic sectors including tourism and it continues with a focus on the linkages between climate and the tourism sector. Then, it analyses the international responses to the issue of climate change and the peculiar activities in the international arena addressing climate change and the tourism sector. The concluding part of the work presents the objectives and achievements of the CDM and its links to the tourism sector by considering case studies of existing projects which demonstrate that the underlying question can be positively answered. New opportunities for the tourism sector are available.

Analysis of the Slow Food movement impact on the farmers and rural areas’ sustainable development

The evaluation of the farmers’ communities’ approach to the Slow Food vision, their perception of the Slow Food role in supporting their activity and their appreciation and expectations from participating in the event of Mother Earth were studied. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model was adopted in an agro-food sector context. A survey was conducted, 120 questionnaires from farmers attending the Mother Earth in Turin in 2010 were collected. The descriptive statistical analysis showed that both Slow Food membership and participation to Mother Earth Meeting were much appreciated for the support provided to their business and the contribution to a more sustainable and fair development. A positive social, environmental and psychological impact on farmers also resulted. Results showed also an interesting perspective on the possible universality of the Slow Food and Mother Earth values. Farmers declared that Slow Food is supporting them by preserving the biodiversity and orienting them to the use of local resources and reducing the chemical inputs. Many farmers mentioned the language/culture and administration/bureaucratic issues as an obstacle to be a member in the movement and to participate to the event. Participation to Mother Earth gives an opportunity to exchange information with other farmers’ communities and to participate to seminars and debates, helpful for their business development. The absolute majority of positive answers associated to the farmers’ willingness to relate to Slow Food and participate to the next Mother Earth editions negatively influenced the UTAUT model results. A factor analysis showed that the variables associated to the UTAUT model constructs Performance Expectancy and Effort Expectancy were consistent, able to explain the construct variability, and their measurement reliable. Their inclusion in a simplest Technology Acceptance Model could be considered in future researches.

Stress and burnout among Swiss dental residents

Stress and burnout have been well-documented in graduate medical and undergraduate dental education, but studies among dental graduate students and residents are sparse. The purpose of this investigation was to examine perceived stressors and three dimensions of burnout among dental residents enrolled in the University of Bern, Switzerland. Thirty-six residents enrolled in five specialty programmes were administered the Graduate Dental Environment Stress (GDES30) questionnaire and the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). Individual stress items and overall GDES30 scores were used to quantify perceived stress. To measure burnout, proportions of burnout "cases" and MBI subscale scores were computed in the domains of emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalization (DP) and reduced personal accomplishment (PA). Analyses relied on descriptive and bi-variate methods. The mean GDES30 score was 2.1 (SD = 0.4). "Lack of leisure time", "meeting the research requirement of the programme" and "completing graduation requirements" emerged as the top three stressors. Thirty-six percent of respondents were burnout "cases" on the PA scale, while this proportion was 17% for EE and 8% for DP. Both stress and burnout levels increased according to year of study, whereas younger residents and females had consistently higher stress and burnout scores compared to older ones and males. Overall, low levels of perceived stress and burnout were found among this group of Swiss dental residents.

Growth and Persistence of Diverse Intertidal Crusts: Survival of the Slow in a Fast-Paced World

Encrusting algae are conspicuous components of hard-substratum benthic communities in the photic zone despite being poor competitors and slow growers. Little is known about their growth rates or about mechanisms controlling key processes such as wound healing and surviving overgrowth. We manipulated 12 crustose species (including red and brown algae and a lichen) from the intertidal zone of Washington, USA, studying their varying responses to identical experimental conditions. Three of 8 crust species tested showed increased growth rates with size. Species healed from standardized wounds at different rates and using different mechanisms (e.g. lateral vs vertical regeneration) as seen in cross-sections. Three species showed altered growth rates at unwounded margins of wounded crusts, suggesting intrathallus communication. Year-long experiments involving simulated overgrowth showed that some species can maintain healthy tissue in a covered area, and one (the coralline Lithothamnion phymatodeum) even grew new tissue there. Other species gradually lost color, thickness, and area in covered areas. Hildenbrandia occidentalis survived remarkably well when covered, possibly due to its very slow growth and low metabolic demand. One suggested mechanism underlying the high variation in responses among crusts is the degree to which their thalli may be anatomically integrated by features such as cell fusions; physiological work testing translocation via these features is needed. Other mechanisms allowing persistence include rapid wound healing and frequent recruitment.

Assessing residents' readiness to screen for domestic violence: Utilizing the transtheoretical model - stages of change, decisional balance and self-efficacy

Domestic violence is a major public health problem, yet most physicians do not effectively identify patients at risk. Medical students and residents are not routinely educated on this topic and little is known about the factors that influence their decisions to include screening for domestic violence in their subsequent practice. In order to assess the readiness of primary care residents to screen all patients for domestic violence, this study utilized a survey incorporating constructs from the Transtheoretical Model, including Stages of Change, Decisional Balance (Pros and Cons) and Self-Efficacy. The survey was distributed to residents at the University of Texas Health Science Center Medical School in Houston in: Internal Medicine, Medicine/Pediatrics, Pediatrics, Family Medicine, and Obstetrics and Gynecology. Data from the survey was analyzed to test the hypothesis that residents in the earlier Stages of Change report more costs and fewer benefits with regards to screening for domestic violence, and that those in the later stages exhibit higher Self-Efficacy scores. The findings from this study were consistent with the model in that benefits to screening (Pros) and Self-Efficacy were correlated with later Stages of Change, however reporting fewer costs (Cons) was not. Very few residents were ready to screen all of their patients.^

Causal Maps and Indirect Influences Analysis in the Diagnosis of Second-Home Tourism Impacts

This paper proposes a method for diagnosing the impacts of second-home tourism and illustrates it for a Mediterranean Spanish destination. This method proposes the application of network analysis software to the analysis of causal maps in order to create a causal network model based on stakeholder-identified impacts. The main innovation is the analysis of indirect relations in causal maps for the identification of the most influential nodes in the model. The results show that the most influential nodes are of a political nature, which contradicts previous diagnoses identifying technical planning as the ultimate cause of problems.

Short-Term Perturbations and Tourism Effects: The case of SARS in China

In China, protected areas are one of the main destinations attracting tourists and homeland for many poor people living in and around them. Based on a case study, the paper focuses on correlation between tourism and poverty alleviation by tracing the cash flows to the local poor. It also reviews the social and environmental effects of tourism on local area. The case study is conducted in a group of protected areas in Qinling Mountain Region in Shaanxi, a western province in China. Qinling Mountain is one of the most important distribution zones for Giant Panda and some other endangered wildlife such as Golden Takin and Golden Monkey. The tourism development in the region is happening. Research indicates that there is 29.33%, of tourist expenditure is going to local households, directly or indirectly. Tourist spends US$7.11 (13.67%) in food and beverage, and US$6.39 (12.23%) in accommodation service, which are the greatest contributors to local households in terms of tourism benefits. Local households can get US$8.15 from food/beverage and accommodation sectors, taking 56.64% of total income from tourism. Generally, tourism development benefits all stakeholders. However, poor people get less benefit. The paper analyses the barriers for the poor to be involved in tourism development, and discusses the government roles, major issues in implementation of Sustainable Tourism-Eliminating Poverty (ST-EP) model.

Destination image, romance and place experience - an application of intimacy theory in tourism

In some forms of tourism, and perhaps particularly in the case of special interest tourism, it can be argued that tourism encounters are service relationships with emotional attachment through the special interest focus and a level of enduring involvement on the part of participants. This involvement is two-fold. First, an interest with the activity; second, a sharing with like-minded people in a social world that extends from home to tourist destination and return. Intimacies in tourism can thus be interpreted through the model of the relationship cycle that comprises the stages A. Aquaintance, B, Buildup, C, Continuation and D, Dissolution. The paper builds upon this concept by utilising ideas of other-centred and self-centredness in personal relationships, and extends the concept of other-centredness to host environments. It also suggests that, in the academic literature about place, location may be secondary in that the quality of experience is primarily determined by the intimacies that exist between people at that place, especially that existing between visitors. © 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.