SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Possible states in the flow around two circular cylinders in tandem with separations in the vicinity of the drag inversion spacing

The possible states in the flow around two identical circular cylinders in tandem arrangements are investigated for configurations in the vicinity of the drag inversion separation. By means of numerical simulations, the hysteresis in the transition between the shedding regimes is studied and the relationship between (three-dimensional) secondary instabilities and shedding regime determination is addressed. The differences observed in the behavior of two- and three-dimensional flows are analyzed, and the regions of bistable flow are delimited. Very good agreement is found between the proposed scenario and results available in the literature. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3420111]

Structural and functional properties of Bp-LAAO, a new L-amino acid oxidase isolated from Bothrops pauloensis snake venom

An L-amino acid oxidase (Bp-LAAO) from Bothrops pauloensis snake venom was highly purified using sequential chromatography steps on CM-Sepharose, Phenyl-Sepharose CL4B, Benzamidine Sepharose and C18 reverse-phase HPLC. Purified Bp-LAAO showed to be a homodimeric acidic glycoprotein with molecular weight around 65 kDa under reducing conditions in SDS-PAGE. The best substrates for Bp-LAAO were L-Met, L-Leu, L-Phe and L-Ile and the enzyme showed a strong reduction of its catalytic activity upon L-Met and L-Phe substrates at extreme temperatures. Bp-LAAO showed leishmanicidal, antitumoral and bactericidal activities dose dependently. Bp-LAAO induced platelet aggregation in platelet-rich plasma and this activity was inhibited by catalase. Bp-LAAC-cDNA of 1548 bp codified a mature protein with 516 amino acid residues corresponding to a theoretical isoelectric point and molecular weight of 6.3 and 58 kDa, respectively. Additionally, structural and phylogenetic studies identified residues under positive selection and their probable location in Elp-LAAO and other snake venom LAAOs (svLAAOs). Structural and functional investigations of these enzymes can contribute to the advancement of toxinology and to the elaboration of novel therapeutic agents. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Dynamical Modeling to Study the Adaptive Immune System and the Influence of Antibodies in the Immune Memory

Immunological systems have been an abundant inspiration to contemporary computer scientists. Problem solving strategies, stemming from known immune system phenomena, have been successfully applied to chall enging problems of modem computing. Simulation systems and mathematical modeling are also beginning use to answer more complex immunological questions as immune memory process and duration of vaccines, where the regulation mechanisms are not still known sufficiently (Lundegaard, Lund, Kesmir, Brunak, Nielsen, 2007). In this article we studied in machina a approach to simulate the process of antigenic mutation and its implications for the process of memory. Our results have suggested that the durability of the immune memory is affected by the process of antigenic mutation.and by populations of soluble antibodies in the blood. The results also strongly suggest that the decrease of the production of antibodies favors the global maintenance of immune memory.

Time evolution in the unimolecular master equation at low temperatures: full spectral solution with scalable iterative methods and high precision

A new method is presented to determine an accurate eigendecomposition of difficult low temperature unimolecular master equation problems. Based on a generalisation of the Nesbet method, the new method is capable of achieving complete spectral resolution of the master equation matrix with relative accuracy in the eigenvectors. The method is applied to a test case of the decomposition of ethane at 300 K from a microcanonical initial population with energy transfer modelled by both Ergodic Collision Theory and the exponential-down model. The fact that quadruple precision (16-byte) arithmetic is required irrespective of the eigensolution method used is demonstrated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Review of time-domain polarization measurements for assessing insulation condition in aged transformers

This paper presents a review of the time-domain polarization measurement techniques for the condition assessment of aged transformer insulation. The polarization process is first described with appropriate dielectric response theories and then commonly used polarization methods are described with special emphasis on the most widely used return voltage(rv) measurement. Most recent emphasis has been directed to techniques of determining moisture content of insulation indirectly by measuring rv parameters. The major difficulty still lies with the accurate interpretation of return voltage results. This paper investigates different thoughts regarding the interpretation of rv results for different moisture and ageing conditions. Other time domain polarization measurement techniques and their results are also presented in this paper.

Comporta de vigas: dimensionamento e análise estrutural

As comportas de vigas de fundo, objecto de estudo no presente trabalho, são essenciais devido à sua capacidade de controlo do fluxo de água em casos de emergência. Assim este trabalho visou o dimensionamento e análise estrutural de uma comporta dessa natureza. Para o seu dimensionamento foi essencial a norma DIN19704-1:1998, que define todos os padrões que devem ser levados em conta numa construção hidráulica em aço. Deste modo, após uma breve descrição do enquadramento e do estado da arte relativamente a este assunto, foram apresentados ao longo do trabalho, os cálculos dos principais componentes mecânicos que fazem parte dum projecto de uma comporta de vigas. Para comprovar a validade do dimensionamento da comporta realizado através da norma, recorreu-se a um software de análise e simulação por elementos finitos, COSMOSWorks, no sentido de assim prever o comportamento mecânico em análise estática linear, que as solicitações mecânicas em presença têm sobre a comporta. Os resultados da comparação entre o dimensionamento teórico e a análise de tensões através do COSMOSWorks nos elementos mais críticos da estrutura, permitem concluir globalmente que a comporta está bem dimensionada tendo em conta os esforços que tem de suportar.

Análise do desempenho da tecnologia 4G LTE

O objectivo deste trabalho passa pelo desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta de simulação dinâmica de recursos rádio em LTE no sentido descendente, com recurso à Framework OMNeT++. A ferramenta desenvolvida permite realizar o planeamento das estações base, simulação e análise de resultados. São descritos os principais aspectos da tecnologia de acesso rádio, designadamente a arquitectura da rede, a codificação, definição dos recursos rádio, os ritmos de transmissão suportados ao nível de canal e o mecanismo de controlo de admissão. Foi definido o cenário de utilização de recursos rádio que inclui a definição de modelos de tráfego e de serviços orientados a pacotes e circuitos. Foi ainda considerado um cenário de referência para a verificação e validação do modelo de simulação. A simulação efectua-se ao nível de sistema, suportada por um modelo dinâmico, estocástico e orientado por eventos discretos de modo a contemplar os diferentes mecanismos característicos da tecnologia OFDMA. Os resultados obtidos permitem a análise de desempenho dos serviços, estações base e sistema ao nível do throughput médio da rede, throughput médio por eNodeB e throughput médio por móvel para além de permitir analisar o contributo de outros parâmetros designadamente, largura de banda, raio de cobertura, perfil dos serviços, esquema de modulação, entre outros. Dos resultados obtidos foi possível verificar que, considerando um cenário com estações base com raio de cobertura de 100 m obteve-se um throughput ao nível do utilizador final igual a 4.69494 Mbps, ou seja, 7 vezes superior quando comparado a estações base com raios de cobertura de 200m.

FMRI 3D registration based on Fourier space subsets using neural networks

In this work, we present a neural network (NN) based method designed for 3D rigid-body registration of FMRI time series, which relies on a limited number of Fourier coefficients of the images to be aligned. These coefficients, which are comprised in a small cubic neighborhood located at the first octant of a 3D Fourier space (including the DC component), are then fed into six NN during the learning stage. Each NN yields the estimates of a registration parameter. The proposed method was assessed for 3D rigid-body transformations, using DC neighborhoods of different sizes. The mean absolute registration errors are of approximately 0.030 mm in translations and 0.030 deg in rotations, for the typical motion amplitudes encountered in FMRI studies. The construction of the training set and the learning stage are fast requiring, respectively, 90 s and 1 to 12 s, depending on the number of input and hidden units of the NN. We believe that NN-based approaches to the problem of FMRI registration can be of great interest in the future. For instance, NN relying on limited K-space data (possibly in navigation echoes) can be a valid solution to the problem of prospective (in frame) FMRI registration.

Bancada didáctica para simulação de uma Unidade de Microgeração

Neste trabalho é desenvolvida uma bancada didáctica que permite simular o funcionamento de um sistema de microgeração. A bancada inclui uma máquina síncrona responsável pela geração de energia eléctrica acoplada a uma máquina de indução que simula a máquina primária. A máquina de indução é controlada por um sistema electrónico de controlo de potência (variador de velocidade) que permite manter constante a velocidade de rotação e consequentemente a frequência da tensão gerada pela máquina síncrona. Por sua vez, a excitação da máquina síncrona é controla por uma fonte de tensão externa. A parametrização e controlo do variador de velocidade, assim como o controlo da fonte de tensão externa, são feitos a partir dum software que corre num PC, que também monitoriza a tensão gerada pela máquina síncrona. Este software é ainda responsável pela interface com o utilizador. O software desenvolvido permite manter as características da tensão gerada pela máquina síncrona independentemente da carga imposta.

Reabilitação de um imóvel industrial em Marvila: projeto de investimento

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Aplicação de ferramentas de simulação estocástica na área de planeamento de uma empresa de abastecimento de água

No presente trabalho procura-se evidenciar algumas soluções para aplicação de simulação estocástica num contexto de gestão dos ativos, aplicado a um sistema de abastecimento de água, tirando partido da informação disponível sobre a manutenção que vem realizando, ao longo dos anos. Procura-se também descrever como estas metodologias podem ser aplicadas noutros casos, futuramente, beneficiando ainda da recolha de informação de colaboradores da empresa, com experiência no cargo e com elevado conhecimento do funcionamento das infraestruturas. A simulação estocástica é uma área cujas ferramentas podem dar uma preciosa ajuda no processo de tomada de decisão. Por outro lado, as organizações preocupam-se, cada vez mais, com o tema da gestão de ativos e com os custos a si associados, começando a investir mais tempo e dinheiro nessa matéria com o objetivo de delinearem estratégias para aumentar o período de vida útil dos seus ativos e otimizarem os seus investimentos de renovação. Nesse contexto, evidencia-se que um adequado plano de intervenções de manutenção e operação é uma boa metodologia, para garantir a redução de falhas no sistema de abastecimento de uma empresa desse setor, bem como garantir que as infraestruturas se encontram em condições de funcionamento. Contudo, esta abordagem tradicional não será suficiente para garantir as melhores práticas e os objetivos que se pretendem alcançar com uma gestão de ativos atual. O trabalho inclui, ainda, um estudo de caso com que se aplicaram as ferramentas estudadas a um caso real de um grupo de bombagem, de uma das Estações Elevatórias da empresa.

Diagnóstico Energético e Modelação Energética de uma Piscina Municipal

Mestrado em Engenharia Mecânica – Ramo Energia