Look before you leap : a confidence-based method for selecting species criticality while avoiding negative populations in τ-leaping

The stochastic simulation algorithm was introduced by Gillespie and in a different form by Kurtz. There have been many attempts at accelerating the algorithm without deviating from the behavior of the simulated system. The crux of the explicit τ-leaping procedure is the use of Poisson random variables to approximate the number of occurrences of each type of reaction event during a carefully selected time period, τ. This method is acceptable providing the leap condition, that no propensity function changes “significantly” during any time-step, is met. Using this method there is a possibility that species numbers can, artificially, become negative. Several recent papers have demonstrated methods that avoid this situation. One such method classifies, as critical, those reactions in danger of sending species populations negative. At most, one of these critical reactions is allowed to occur in the next time-step. We argue that the criticality of a reactant species and its dependent reaction channels should be related to the probability of the species number becoming negative. This way only reactions that, if fired, produce a high probability of driving a reactant population negative are labeled critical. The number of firings of more reaction channels can be approximated using Poisson random variables thus speeding up the simulation while maintaining the accuracy. In implementing this revised method of criticality selection we make use of the probability distribution from which the random variable describing the change in species number is drawn. We give several numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method.

Acoustic component detection for automatic species recognition in environmental monitoring

Automatic species recognition plays an important role in assisting ecologists to monitor the environment. One critical issue in this research area is that software developers need prior knowledge of specific targets people are interested in to build templates for these targets. This paper proposes a novel approach for automatic species recognition based on generic knowledge about acoustic events to detect species. Acoustic component detection is the most critical and fundamental part of this proposed approach. This paper gives clear definitions of acoustic components and presents three clustering algorithms for detecting four acoustic components in sound recordings; whistles, clicks, slurs, and blocks. The experiment result demonstrates that these acoustic component recognisers have achieved high precision and recall rate.

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Phenological changes in six Australian subalpine plants in response to experimental warming and year-to-year variation

The likely phenological responses of plants to climate warming can be measured through experimental manipulation of field sites, but results are rarely validated against year-to-year changes in climate. Here, we describe the response of 1-5 years of experimental warming on phenology (budding, flowering and seed maturation) of six common subalpine plant species in the Australian Alps using the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) protocol.2. Phenological changes in some species (particularly the forb Craspedia jamesii) were detected in experimental plots within a year of warming, whereas changes in most other species (the forb Erigeron bellidioides, the shrub Asterolasia trymalioides and the graminoids Carex breviculmis and Poa hiemata) did not develop until after 2-4 years; thus, there appears to be a cumulative effect of warming for some species across multiple years.3. There was evidence of changes in the length of the period between flowering and seed maturity in one species (P. hiemata) that led to a similar timing of seed maturation, suggesting compensation.4. Year-to-year variation in phenology was greater than variation between warmed and control plots and could be related to differences in thawing degree days (particularly, for E. bellidioides) due to earlier timing of budding and other events under warmer conditions. However, in Carex breviculmis, there was no association between phenology and temperature changes across years.5. These findings indicate that, although phenological changes occurred earlier in response to warming in all six species, some species showed buffered rather than immediate responses.6. Synthesis. Warming in ITEX open-top chambers in the Australian Alps produced earlier budding, flowering and seed set in several alpine species. Species also altered the timing of these events, particularly budding, in response to year-to-year temperature variation. Some species responded immediately, whereas in others the cumulative effects of warming across several years were required before a response was detected.

Wing shape as a potential discriminator of morphologically similar pest taxa within the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Four morphologically cryptic species of the Bactrocera dorsalis fruit fly complex (B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae, B. carambolae and B. philippinensis) are serious agricultural pests. As they are difficult to diagnose using traditional taxonomic techniques, we examined the potential for geometric morphometric analysis of wing size and shape to discriminate between them. Fifteen wing landmarks generated size and shape data for 245 specimens for subsequent comparisons among three geographically distinct samples of each species. Intraspecific wing size was significantly different within samples of B. carambolae and B. dorsalis s.s. but not within samples of B. papayae or B. philippinensis. Although B. papayae had the smallest wings (average centroid size=6.002 mm±0.061 SE) and B. dorsalis s.s. the largest (6.349 mm±0.066 SE), interspecific wing size comparisons were generally non-informative and incapable of discriminating species. Contrary to the wing size data, canonical variate analysis based on wing shape data discriminated all species with a relatively high degree of accuracy; individuals were correctly reassigned to their respective species on average 93.27% of the time. A single sample group of B. carambolae from locality 'TN Malaysia' was the only sample to be considerably different from its conspecific groups with regards to both wing size and wing shape. This sample was subsequently deemed to have been originally misidentified and likely represents an undescribed species. We demonstrate that geometric morphometric techniques analysing wing shape represent a promising approach for discriminating between morphologically cryptic taxa of the B. dorsalis species complex.

Host location by the fruit fly parasitoid Diachasmimorpha krausii : role of fruit fly species, life stage and host plant

1 Diachasmimorpha krausii is a braconid parasitoid of larval tephritid fruit flies, which feed cryptically within host fruit. At the ovipositor probing stage, the wasp cannot discriminate between hosts that are physiologically suitable or unsuitable for offspring development and must use other cues to locate suitable hosts. 2 To identify the cues used by the parasitoid to find suitable hosts, we offered, to free flying wasps, different combinations of three fruit fly species (Bactrocera tryoni, Bactrocera cacuminata, Bactrocera cucumis), different life stages of those flies (adults and larvae) and different host plants (Solanum lycopersicon, Solanum mauritianum, Cucurbita pepo). In the laboratory, the wasp will readily oviposit into larvae of all three flies but successfully develops only in B. tryoni. Bactrocera tryoni commonly infests S. lycopersicon (tomato), rarely S. mauritianum (wild tobacco) but never C. pepo (zucchini). The latter two plant species are common hosts for B. cacuminata and B. cucumis, respectively. 3 The parasitoid showed little or no response to uninfested plants of any of the test species. The presence of adult B. tryoni, however, increased parasitoid residency time on uninfested tomato. 4 When the three fruit types were all infested with larvae, parasitoid response was strongest to tomato, regardless of whether the larvae were physiologically suitable or unsuitable for offspring development. By contrast, zucchini was rarely visited by the wasp, even when infested with B. tryoni larvae. 5 Wild tobacco was infrequently visited when infested with B. cacuminata larvae but was more frequently visited, with greater parasitoid residency time and probing, when adult flies (either B. cacuminata or B. tryoni) were also present. 6 We conclude that herbivore-induced, nonspecific host fruit wound volatiles were the major cue used by foraging D. krausii. Although positive orientation to infested host plants is well known from previous studies on opiine braconids, the failure of the wasp to orientate to some plants even when infested with physiologically suitable larvae, and the secondary role played by adult fruit flies in wasp host searching, are newly-identified mechanisms that may aid parasitoid host location in environments where both physiologically suitable and unsuitable hosts occur.

Biodiversity–productivity relationships in small-scale mixed-species plantations using native species in Leyte province, Philippines

In this study, we investigate the relationship between tree species diversity and production in 18 mixed-species plantations established under the Rainforestation Farming system in Leyte province, the Philippines. The aim was to quantify productivity in the mixed-species plantations in comparison to the monocultures, and identify key drivers of productivity including environmental conditions, stand structural characteristics and surrogate measures of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, Shannon’s diversity index and functional groups. We found that monocultures had a much higher productivity than mixtures of the same and other species. In the mixtures, biodiversity and productivity did not have a simple relationship. Instead the proportion of exotic and native species, and the proportion of fast-growing species had a marginally significant positive effect on stand productivity, but no significant relationship was found with species richness or Shannon’s diversity. Instead stand structural characteristics such as density and age were the strongest drivers of increased productivity. Production levels within the mixed-species plantations varied significantly between sites. Overall, we found that the productivity of mixed species plantations was driven more by the characteristics of species present and stand structural characteristics then by simply the number and abundance of species, which suggests management practices are key for balancing multiple objectives to meet sustainable development needs.

Simple rules to contain an invasive species with a complex life cycle and high dispersal capacity

Designing practical rules for controlling invasive species is a challenging task for managers, particularly when species are long-lived, have complex life cycles and high dispersal capacities. Previous findings derived from plant matrix population analyses suggest that effective control of long-lived invaders may be achieved by focusing on killing adult plants. However, the cost-effectiveness of managing different life stages has not been evaluated. We illustrate the benefits of integrating matrix population models with decision theory to undertake this evaluation, using empirical data from the largest infestation of mesquite (Leguminosae: Prosopis spp) within Australia. We include in our model the mesquite life cycle, different dispersal rates and control actions that target individuals at different life stages with varying costs, depending on the intensity of control effort. We then use stochastic dynamic programming to derive cost-effective control strategies that minimize the cost of controlling the core infestation locally below a density threshold and the future cost of control arising from infestation of adjacent areas via seed dispersal. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that four robust management rules guide the allocation of resources between mesquite life stages for this infestation: (i) When there is no seed dispersal, no action is required until density of adults exceeds the control threshold and then only control of adults is needed; (ii) when there is seed dispersal, control strategy is dependent on knowledge of the density of adults and large juveniles (LJ) and broad categories of dispersal rates only; (iii) if density of adults is higher than density of LJ, controlling adults is most cost-effective; (iv) alternatively, if density of LJ is equal or higher than density of adults, management efforts should be spread between adults, large and to a lesser extent small juveniles, but never saplings. Synthesis and applications.In this study, we show that simple rules can be found for managing invasive plants with complex life cycles and high dispersal rates when population models are combined with decision theory. In the case of our mesquite population, focussing effort on controlling adults is not always the most cost-effective way to meet our management objective.