Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

The invasion risk in the Pacific Northwest of two closely related grass species in the Genus Cortaderia

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A Study on the liquefaction risk in seismic design of foundations

A fully coupled non-linear effective stress response finite difference (FD) model is built to survey the counter-intuitive recent findings on the reliance of pore water pressure ratio on foundation contact pressure. Two alternative design scenarios for a benchmark problem are explored and contrasted in the light of construction emission rates using the EFFC-DFI methodology. A strain-hardening effective stress plasticity model is adopted to simulate the dynamic loading. A combination of input motions, contact pressure, initial vertical total pressure and distance to foundation centreline are employed, as model variables, to further investigate the control of permanent and variable actions on the residual pore pressure ratio. The model is verified against the Ghosh and Madabhushi high acceleration field test database. The outputs of this work is aimed to improve the current computer-aided seismic foundation design that relies on ground’s packing state and consistency. The results confirm that on seismic excitation of shallow foundations, the likelihood of effective stress loss is greater in deeper depths and across free field. For the benchmark problem, adopting a shallow foundation system instead of piled foundation benefitted in a 75% less emission rate, a marked proportion of which is owed to reduced materials and haulage carbon cost.

Sharing the vision: representing the matters of concern for design-led fledgling companies in Scotland

Design is being performed on an ever-increasing spectrum of complex practices arising in response to emerging markets and technologies, co-design, digital interaction, service design and cultures of innovation. This emerging notion of design has led to an expansive array of collaborative and facilitation skills to demonstrate and share how such methods can shape innovation. The meaning of these design things in practice can't be taken for granted as matters of fact, which raises a key challenge for design to represent its role through the contradictory nature of matters of concern. This paper explores an innovative, object-oriented approach within the field of design research, visually combining an actor-network theory framework with situational analysis, to report on the role of design for fledgling companies in Scotland, established and funded through the knowledge exchange hub Design in Action (DiA). Key findings and visual maps are presented from reflective discussions with actors from a selection of the businesses within DiA's portfolio. The suggestion is that any notions of strategic value, of engendering meaningful change, of sharing the vision of design, through design things, should be grounded in the reflexive interpretations of matters of concern that emerge.

How new imaging techniques can aid in defining the cardiovascular profile of the high-risk patient

Cardiovascular prevention has been developed in the last eight years producing an ever increasing amount of data requiring frequent updating. Studies using angiography to determine change in coronary obstruction have indicated progression, stabilization, or regression of coronary lesions associated with changes in plasma lipids and lipoproteins. Moreover, the guidelines on arterial hypertension published in 2007 listed the risk factors affecting prognosis but even by 2009 an update modified not only the list of risks, but even the philosophy behind the thought process which introduced as essential element in the prognosis of hypertension the ascertained existence of a damaged organ. Thus, the documentation of atherosclerotic vascular disease (plaques) and the quantification of its extension in the arterial tree became a determinant in the definition of cardiovascular risk. Magnetic Resonance (MRI) and coronary computed tomography (coro CT) applied to the heart and large vessels are the most promising methods.

Tacit knowledge sharing: the determination of a methodological approach to explore the intangible.

Introduction. Research design should take into account both (a) the specific nature of the object under scrutiny, and (b) approaches to its study in the past. This is to ensure that informed decisions are made regarding research design in future empirical studies. Here these factors are taken into account with reference to methodological choice for a doctoral study on tacit knowledge sharing, and the extent to tacit knowledge sharing may be facilitated by online tools. The larger study responds to calls for the two domains of knowledge management and human information behaviour to be considered together in terms of their research approaches and theory development. Method. Relevant literature – both domain-specific (knowledge management) and general (research methods in social science) - was identified and analysed to identify the most appropriate approaches for an empirical study of tacit knowledge sharing. Analysis. The analysis shows that there are a number of challenges associated with studying an intangible entity such as tacit knowledge. Quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods have been adopted in prior work on this theme, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. Results. The analysis has informed a decision to adopt a research approach that deploys mixed methods for an inductive case study to extend knowledge of the influence of online tools on tacit knowledge sharing. Conclusion. This work intends to open the debate on methodological choice and routes to implementation for studies that are subject to practical constraints imposed by the context in which they are situated.

An Analysis of the Potential Risk Exposure to Lead (Pb) through Urban Community Gardens

Community gardening in cities is increasing, driven by social interaction and food security. City soils are sinks for heavy metals; including neurotoxic lead (Pb). Exposure routes are primarily through inhalation/ingestion of soil, or second by ingestion of plants that have accumulated Pb. This research evaluates soil at three Liberty City, Florida sites estimating risk of Pb exposure through primary and secondary pathways. Soil cores were collected from Liberty City, and red Malabar spinach (Basella rubra) was grown in Pb soil treatments in a greenhouse. Total soil Pb levels and plant tissues were measured after acid digestion, by ICP-OES. In Liberty City, two sites had hotspots with areas of elevated soil Pb levels. Plants grown on Pb contaminated soil all accumulated statistically significant Pb concentrations. Therefore, there is a potential risk of Pb exposure to residents in Liberty City by exposure in hotspot sites through both the primary and secondary pathways.

Review of Managing the Fraud Risk in the Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP), Administered by the Department of Social Services

This review was initiated based upon allegations from multiple sources of possible fraud in the Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP) administered by the South Carolina Department of Social Services (SCDSS), which was implemented in response to the 10/3/2015 statewide flooding from Hurricane Joaquin. This review’s scope and objectives were: Assess SCDSS’s D-SNAP implementation for compliance with federal guidelines, with emphasis on fraud preventative controls; Assess the SCDSS’s post-disaster review and audit methodology for compliance with federal guidelines, with emphasis on understanding the fraud risks and resolution strategies; and Identify residual risk/suspected fraud not addressed through the SCDSS review and available opportunities to address.

Heterogeneity and the formation of risk - sharing coalitions

We offer a new explanation of partial risk sharing based on coalition formation and segmentation of society in a risky environment, without assuming limited commitment and imperfect information. Heterogenous individuals in a society freely choose with whom they will share risk. A partition belonging to the core of the membership game obtains. Perfect risk sharing does not necessarily arise. Focusing on mutual insurance rule and assuming that individuals only differ with respect to risk, we show that the core partition is homophily-based. The distribution of risk affects the number and size of these coalitions. Individuals may pay a lower risk premium in riskier societies. A higher heterogeneity in risk leads to a lower degree of risk sharing. We discuss how the endogenous partition of society into risk-sharing coalitions may shed light on empirical evidence on partial risk sharing. The case of heterogenous risk aversion leads to similar results.

Changing parental high risk behaviour in the reduction of SIDS : the imperative of translational research

Objectives To investigate the factors associated with sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) from birth to age 2 years, whether recent advice has been followed, whether any new risk factors have emerged, and the specific circumstances in which SIDS occurs while cosleeping (infant sharing the same bed or sofa with an adult or child). Design Four year population based case-control study. Parents were interviewed shortly after the death or after the reference sleep (within 24 hours) of the two control groups. Setting South west region of England (population 4.9 million, 184 800 births). Participants 80 SIDS infants and two control groups weighted for age and time of reference sleep: 87 randomly selected controls and 82 controls at high risk of SIDS (young, socially deprived, multiparous mothers who smoked). Results The median age at death (66 days) was more than three weeks less than in a study in the same region a decade earlier. Of the SIDS infants, 54% died while cosleeping compared with 20% among both control groups. Much of this excess may be explained by a significant multivariable interaction between cosleeping and recent parental use of alcohol or drugs (31% v 3% random controls) and the increased proportion of SIDS infants who had coslept on a sofa (17% v 1%). One fifth of SIDS infants used a pillow for the last sleep (21% v 3%) and one quarter were swaddled (24% v 6%). More mothers of SIDS infants than random control infants smoked during pregnancy (60% v 14%), whereas one quarter of the SIDS infants were preterm (26% v 5%) or were in fair or poor health for the last sleep (28% v 6%). All of these differences were significant in the multivariable analysis regardless of which control group was used for comparison. The significance of covering the infant’s head, postnatal exposure to tobacco smoke, dummy use, and sleeping in the side position has diminished although a significant proportion of SIDS infants were still found prone (29% v 10%). Conclusions Many of the SIDS infants had coslept in a hazardous environment. The major influences on risk, regardless of markers for socioeconomic deprivation, are amenable to change and specific advice needs to be given, particularly on use of alcohol or drugs before cosleeping and cosleeping on a sofa.

Disaster management in Nepal: Media engagement in the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Nepal, as a consequence of its geographical location and changing climate, faces frequent threats of natural disasters. According to the World Bank’s 2005 Natural Disasters Hotspots Report, Nepal is ranked the 11th most vulnerable country to earthquake and 30th to flood risk. Geo-Hazards International (2011) has classified Kathmandu as one of the world’s most vulnerable cities to earthquakes. In the last four decades more than 32,000 people in Nepal have lost their lives and annual monetary loss is estimated at more than 15 million (US) dollars. This review identifies gaps in knowledge, and progress towards implementation of the Post Hyogo Framework of Action. Nepal has identified priority areas: community resilience, sustainable development and climate change induced disaster risk reduction. However, one gap between policy and action lies in the ability of Nepal to act effectively in accordance with an appropriate framework for media activities. Supporting media agencies include the Press Council, Federation of Nepalese Journalists, Nepal Television, Radio Nepal and Telecommunications Authority and community based organizations. The challenge lies in further strengthening traditional and new media to undertake systematic work supported by government bodies and the National Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC). Within this context, the ideal role for media is one that is proactive where journalists pay attention to a range of appropriate angles or frames when preparing and disseminating information. It is important to develop policy for effective information collection, sharing and dissemination in collaboration with Telecommunication, Media and Journalists. The aim of this paper is to describe the developments in disaster management in Nepal and their implications for media management. This study provides lessons for government, community and the media to help improve the framing of disaster messages. Significantly, the research highlights the prominence that should be given to flood, landslides, lightning and earthquakes.

Risk Aversion in Inventory Management

Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. In this paper, we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multi-period inventory models as well as multi-period models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies. In each case, we characterize the optimal policy for various measures of risk that have been commonly used in the finance literature. In particular, we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk-neutral inventory (and pricing) policies. Computational results demonstrate the importance of this approach not only to risk-averse decision makers, but also to risk-neutral decision makers with limited information on the demand distribution.

A framework for ICT-based knowledge sharing in sustainable rural development : the case of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Some 50% of the people in the world live in rural areas, often under harsh conditions and in poverty. The need for knowledge of how to improve living conditions is well documented. In response to this need, new knowledge of how to improve living conditions in rural areas and elsewhere is continuously being developed by researchers and practitioners around the world. People in rural areas, in particular, would certainly benefit from being able to share relevant knowledge with each other, as well as with stakeholders (e.g. researchers) and other organizations (e.g. NGOs). Central to knowledge management is the idea of knowledge sharing. This study is based on the assumption that knowledge management can support sustainable development in rural and remote regions. It aims to present a framework for knowledge management in sustainable rural development, and an inventory of existing frameworks for that. The study is interpretive, with interviews as the primary source for the inventory of stakeholders, knowledge categories and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) infrastructure. For the inventory of frameworks, a literature study was carried out. The result is a categorization of the stakeholders who act as producers and beneficiaries of explicit and indigenous development knowledge. Stakeholders are local government, local population, academia, NGOs, civil society and donor agencies. Furthermore, the study presents a categorization of the development knowledge produced by the stakeholders together with specifications for the existing ICT infrastructure. Rural development categories found are research, funding, agriculture, ICT, gender, institutional development, local infrastructure development, and marketing & enterprise. Finally, a compiled framework is presented, and it is based on ten existing frameworks for rural development that were found in the literature study, and the empirical findings of the Gilgit-Baltistan case. Our proposed framework is divided in four levels where level one consists of the identified stakeholders, level two consists of rural development categories, level three of the knowledge management system and level four of sustainable rural development based on the levels below. In the proposed framework we claim that the sustainability of rural development can be achieved through a knowledge society in which knowledge of the rural development process is shared among all relevant stakeholders.