Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Role of rhinovirus load in the upper respiratory tract and severity of symptoms in lung transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Rhinovirus is the most common cause of respiratory viral infections and leads to frequent respiratory symptoms in lung transplant recipients. However, it remains unknown whether the rhinovirus load correlates with the severity of symptoms. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to better characterize the pathogenesis of rhinoviral infection and the way in which viral load correlates with symptoms. STUDY DESIGN: We assessed rhinovirus load in positive upper respiratory specimens of patients enrolled prospectively in a cohort of 116 lung transplant recipients. Rhinovirus load was quantified according to a validated in-house, real-time, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction in pooled nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs. Symptoms were recorded in a standardised case report form completed at each screening/routine follow-up visit, or during any emergency visit occurring during the 3-year study. RESULTS: Rhinovirus infections were very frequent, including in asymptomatic patients not seeking a specific medical consultation. Rhinovirus load ranged between 4.1 and 8.3 log copies/ml according to the type of visit and clinical presentation. Patients with highest symptom scores tended to have higher viral loads, particularly those presenting systemic symptoms. When considering symptoms individually, rhinovirus load was significantly higher in the presence of symptoms such as sore throat, fever, sputum production, cough, and fatigue. There was no association between tacrolimus levels and rhinovirus load. CONCLUSIONS: Rhinovirus infections are very frequent in lung transplant recipients and rhinoviral load in the upper respiratory tract is relatively high even in asymptomatic patients. Patients with the highest symptom scores tend to have a higher rhinovirus load.

Simultaneous use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis in relation to severity of substance dependence: a study among young Swiss men

Objective: This study investigated patterns of the simultaneous use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis among young polydrug users, and whether use of one substance might be a cue for use of another and associations with the severity of substance dependence. Methods: The study focused on 3 subsamples from the ongoing Swiss Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF, N=5,990). It used 12 months of data on alcohol/tobacco co-users, alcohol/cannabis co-users and tobacco/cannabis co-users (N=2,660, 1,755 and 1,460 respectively. Simultaneous use, numbers of symptoms of substance dependence, and hazardous use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis were assessed. The effect of simultaneous polydrug use (SPU) on the numbers of symptoms of substance dependence was tested using analysis of variance. Results: Polydrug use was most common as SPU, and less common as non/occasional SPU. Moreover, when participants started to use one substance while using another, the severity of substance dependence was more strongly associated with the triggered substance than with cue. Conclusions: This study highlights the necessity to take SPU into account. First, SPU rather than separate drug use was the most common pattern for polydrug users. Second, frequent SPU was associated with increased numbers of symptoms of substance dependence compared to non/occasional SPU. Furthermore, SPU may reveal the severity of substance use dependence, when substance use is triggered by a cue substance. For these reasons, SPU should be a serious cause for concern for prevention and intervention purposes.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea Severity and Overnight Body Fluid Shift before and after Hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with significantly increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Fluid overload may promote obstructive sleep apnea in patients with ESRD through an overnight fluid shift from the legs to the neck soft tissues. Body fluid shift and severity of obstructive sleep apnea before and after hemodialysis were compared in patients with ESRD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Seventeen patients with hemodialysis and moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea were included. Polysomnographies were performed the night before and after hemodialysis to assess obstructive sleep apnea, and bioimpedance was used to measure fluid overload and leg fluid volume. RESULTS: The mean overnight rostral fluid shift was 1.27±0.41 L prehemodialysis; it correlated positively with fluid overload volume (r=0.39; P=0.02) and was significantly lower posthemodialysis (0.78±0.38 L; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the mean obstructive apnea-hypopnea index before and after hemodialysis (46.8±22.0 versus 42.1±18.6 per hour; P=0.21), but obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly lower posthemodialysis (-10.1±10.8 per hour) in the group of 12 patients, with a concomitant reduction of fluid overload compared with participants without change in fluid overload (obstructive apnea-hypopnea index +8.2±16.1 per hour; P<0.01). A lower fluid overload after hemodialysis was significantly correlated (r=0.49; P=0.04) with a lower obstructive apnea-hypopnea index. Fluid overload-assessed by bioimpedance-was the best predictor of the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index observed after hemodialysis (standardized r=-0.68; P=0.01) in multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Fluid overload influences overnight rostral fluid shift and obstructive sleep apnea severity in patients with ESRD undergoing intermittent hemodialysis. Although no benefit of hemodialysis on obstructive sleep apnea severity was observed in the whole group, the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly correlated with the change in fluid overload after hemodialysis. Moreover, the subgroup with lower fluid overload posthemodialysis showed a significantly lower obstructive sleep apnea severity, which provides a strong incentive to further study whether optimizing fluid status in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and ESRD will improve the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index.

Social factors related to the clinical severity of influenza cases in Spain during the A(H1N1)2009 virus pandemic

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a change in the type of patients most often affected by influenza was observed. The objective of this study was to assess the role of individual and social determinants in hospitalizations due to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods We studied hospitalized patients (cases) and outpatients (controls) with confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data. Variables that might be related to the hospitalization of influenza cases were compared by estimation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the variables entered into binomial logistic regression models. Results Hospitalization due to pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections was associated with non-Caucasian ethnicity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.17 − 4.08), overcrowding (OR: 2.84, 95% CI 1.20 − 6.72), comorbidity and the lack of previous preventive information (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.50 − 4.83). Secondary or higher education was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.36 − 0.87) Conclusions In addition to individual factors such as comorbidity, other factors such as educational level, ethnicity or overcrowding were associated with hospitalization due to A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections.

New insight in the relationship between regional patterns of knee cartilage thickness, osteoarthritis disease severity, and gait mechanics.

To test if the relationship between knee kinetics during walking and regional patterns of cartilage thickness is influenced by disease severity we tested the following hypotheses in a cross-sectional study of medial compartment osteoarthritis (OA) subjects: (1) the peak knee flexion (KFM) and adduction moments (KAM) during walking are associated with regional cartilage thickness and medial-to-lateral cartilage thickness ratios, and (2) the associations between knee moments and cartilage thickness data are dependent on disease severity. Seventy individuals with medial compartment knee OA were studied. Gait analysis was used to determine the knee moments and cartilage thickness was measured from magnetic resonance imaging. Multiple linear regression analyses tested for associations between cartilage thickness and knee kinetics. Medial cartilage thickness and medial-to-lateral cartilage thickness ratios were lower in subjects with greater KAM for specific regions of the femoral condyle and tibial plateau with no associations for KFM in patients of all disease severities. When separated by severity, the association between KAM and cartilage thickness was found only in patients with more severe OA, and KFM was significantly associated with cartilage thickness only for the less severe OA subjects for specific tibial plateau regions. The results support the idea that the KAM is larger in patients with more severe disease and the KFM has greater influence early in the disease process, which may lessen as pain increases with disease severity. Each component influences different regions of cartilage. Thus the relative contributions of both KAM and KFM should be considered when evaluating gait mechanics and the influence of any intervention for knee OA.

Severity and burden of partial-onset seizures in a phase III trial of eslicarbazepine acetate.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare posttreatment seizure severity in a phase III clinical trial of eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL) as adjunctive treatment of refractory partial-onset seizures. METHODS: The Seizure Severity Questionnaire (SSQ) was administered at baseline and posttreatment. The SSQ total score (TS) and component scores (frequency and helpfulness of warning signs before seizures [BS]; severity and bothersomeness of ictal movement and altered consciousness during seizures [DS]; cognitive, emotional, and physical aspects of postictal recovery after seizures [AS]; and overall severity and bothersomeness [SB]) were calculated for the per-protocol population. Analysis of covariance, adjusted for baseline scores, estimated differences in posttreatment least square means between treatment arms. RESULTS: Out of 547 per-protocol patients, 441 had valid SSQ TS both at baseline and posttreatment. Mean posttreatment TS for ESL 1200mg/day was significantly lower than that for placebo (2.68 vs 3.20, p<0.001), exceeding the minimal clinically important difference (MCID: 0.48). Mean DS, AS, and SB were also significantly lower with ESL 1200mg/day; differences in AS and SB exceeded the MCIDs. The TS, DS, AS, and SB were lower for ESL 800mg/day than for placebo; only SB was significant (p=0.013). For both ESL arms combined versus placebo, mean scores differed significantly for TS (p=0.006), DS (p=0.031), and SB (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic ESL doses led to clinically meaningful, dose-dependent reductions in seizure severity, as measured by SSQ scores. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study presents Class I evidence that adjunctive ESL (800 and 1200mg/day) led to clinically meaningful, dose-dependent seizure severity reductions, measured by the SSQ.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

The effects of fire severity on ectomycorrhizal colonization and morphometric features in Pinus pinaster Ait. seedlings

Aim of the study: Mycorrhizal fungi in Mediterranean forests play a key role in the complex process of recovery after wildfires. A broader understanding of an important pyrophytic species as Pinus pinaster and its fungal symbionts is thus necessary for forest restoration purposes. This study aims to assess the effects of ectomycorrhizal symbiosis on maritime pine seedlings and how fire severity affects fungal colonization ability. Area of study: Central Spain, in a Mediterranean region typically affected by wildfires dominated by Pinus pinaster, a species adapted to fire disturbance. Material and Methods: We studied P. pinaster root apexes from seedlings grown in soils collected one year after fire in undisturbed sites, sites moderately affected by fire and sites highly affected by fire. Natural ectomycorrhization was observed at the whole root system level as well as at two root vertical sections (0-10 cm and 10-20 cm). We also measured several morphometric traits ( tap root length, shoot length, dry biomass of shoots and root/shoot ratio), which were used to test the influence of fire severity and soil chemistry upon them. Main results: Ectomycorrhizal colonization in undisturbed soils for total and separated root vertical sections was higher than in soils that had been affected by fire to some degree. Inversely, seedling vegetative size increased according to fire severity. Research highlights: Fire severity affected soil properties and mycorrhizal colonization one year after occurrence, thus affecting plant development. These findings can contribute to a better knowledge of the factors mediating successful establishment of P. pinaster in Mediterranean forests after wildfires.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Gray mold severity and vase life of rose buds after pulsing with citric acid, salicylic acid, calcium sulfate, sucrose and silver thiosulfate

Gray mold of roses (Rosa hibrida) caused by Botrytis cinerea requires many management strategies for its control. The effect of pulsing rose cv. Kiss with solutions of citric acid, salicylic acid, sucrose, calcium sulfate, and silver thiosulfate (STS) on disease severity and vase life of the flowers was evaluated. The solutions were applied to cut stems at different stages of harvest, the variation in the opening stage of harvest did not affect the results. Pulsing with STS reduced the values of area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) and of severity of disease by 15% and 55%, respectively, and increased the vase life of the flowers by 20%. Calcium sulfate consistently reduced AUDPC by 66% and maximum severity by 88%, and increased vase life of the flowers by 37%. Therefore, pulsing rose buds with solutions of STS and calcium sulfate is potentially useful in reducing losses due to gray mold after harvest and in extending the vase life.

Effect of temperature, leaf wetness, and rainfall on the production of Guignardia citricarpa ascospores and on back spot severity on sweet orange

The black spot of citrus (Citrus sp.) is caused by Guignardia citricarpa with ascospore production depending on temperature, leaf wetness, and rainfall. The number of ascospores produced was monitored using a spore trap and climatic factors were recorded using an automated meteorological station of 'Natal' and 'Valencia' sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) orchards in Mogi Guaçu in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from November 2000 to March 2001. The fruits were bagged to prevent infection and the bags removed from different sets of fruit for one week during each of the 18 weeks of the season in both orchards. Ascospores were produced during the entire experimental period, from spring through summer, primarily after rain events. In both orchards, ascospore production reached a peak in January and February. Ascospore production was related to leaf wetness only in the Natal orange orchard but was not related to total rainfall or temperature in either orchard. Disease was most severe on fruit exposed the 7th, 8th, and 13th weeks after beginning the experiment in both cultivars as well as after the 16th week for 'Natal'. There was a strong relationship between disease severity and total rainfall for both orchards and a weak correlation between temperature and severity in the 'Natal' block only. There was no relationship between severity and leaf wetness or ascospore numbers.

Diagrammatic scale for assessment of soybean rust severity

A diagrammatic scale to assess soybean (Glycine max) rust severity, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, was developed in this study. Leaflets showing different severity levels were collected for determination of the minimum and maximum severity limits; intermediate levels were determined according to "Weber-Fechner's stimulus-response law". The proposed scale showed the levels of 0.6; 2; 7; 18; 42, and 78.5%. Scale validation was performed by eight raters (four inexperienced and four experienced), who estimated the severity of 44 soybean leaflets showing rust symptoms, with and without the use of the scale. Except for rater number eight, all showed a tendency to overestimate severity without the aid of the diagrammatic scale. With the scale, the raters obtained better accuracy and precision levels, although the tendency to overestimate was maintained. Experienced raters were more accurate and precise than inexperienced raters, and assessment improvements with the use of the scale were more significant for inexperienced raters.