Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Fast Convergence of Regularised Region-based Mixture of Gaussians for Dynamic Background Modelling

The momentum term has long been used in machine learning algorithms, especially back-propagation, to improve their speed of convergence. In this paper, we derive an expression to prove the O(1/k2) convergence rate of the online gradient method, with momentum type updates, when the individual gradients are constrained by a growth condition. We then apply these type of updates to video background modelling by using it in the update equations of the Region-based Mixture of Gaussians algorithm. Extensive evaluations are performed on both simulated data, as well as challenging real world scenarios with dynamic backgrounds, to show that these regularised updates help the mixtures converge faster than the conventional approach and consequently improve the algorithm’s performance.

Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments.

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

Strength reduction of till under dynamic pore pressure condition

Cuttings in heavily overconsolidated clays are known to be susceptible to progressive deformation caused by creep and fatigue that usually begins at the toe of the slope. The progressive deformation leads to strength reduction with time at constant stress (or called softening) and could be accelerated by fluctuation of groundwater level associated with more extreme rainfall events predicted through climate change. The purpose of this paper is to assess the mechanism of progressive deformation due to creep and fatigue using element testing on samples of till. The samples were subjected to fully drained loading and the deviator stresses were held constant at various percentages of peak failure stress, while the pore water pressure was kept static or dynamic (fluctuating ±5 kPa) over a period of time. The results have shown that the samples experienced significant deformation even at a higher factor of safety (i.e. the failure deviator stress/deviator stress at which the pore water pressure was fluctuated) under pore water pressure dynamics.

Towards a spectroscopically accurate set of potentials for heavy hydride laser cooling candidates: effective core potential calculations of BaH

BaH (and its isotopomers) is an attractive molecular candidate for laser cooling to ultracold temperatures and a potential precursor for the production of ultracold gases of hydrogen and deuterium. The theoretical challenge is to simulate the laser cooling cycle as reliably as possible and this paper addresses the generation of a highly accurate ab initio $^{2}\Sigma^+$ potential for such studies. The performance of various basis sets within the multi-reference configuration-interaction (MRCI) approximation with the Davidson correction (MRCI+Q)is tested and taken to the Complete Basis Set (CBS) limit. It is shown that the calculated molecular constants using a 46 electron Effective Core-Potential (ECP) and even-tempered augmented polarized core-valence basis sets (aug-pCV$n$Z-PP, n= 4 and 5) but only including three active electrons in the MRCI calculation are in excellent agreement with the available experimental values. The predicted dissociation energy De for the X$^2\Sigma^+$ state (extrapolated to the CBS limit) is 16895.12 cm$^{-1}$ (2.094 eV), which agrees within 0.1$\%$ of a revised experimental value of <16910.6 cm$^{-1}$, while the calculated re is within 0.03 pm of the experimental result.

Identification of greenhouse climate dynamic models

In this paper climate discrete-time dynamic models for the inside air temperature of two different greenhouses are identified, using data acquired during two different periods of the year. These models employ data from air temperature and relative humidity (both outside and inside the greenhouse), solar radiation, wind speed, and control inputs (ventialtion, etc.).

Mobilizing in borderline citizenship regimes : a comparative analysis of undocumented migrants’ collective actions

This article seeks to explain how and why groups and networks of undocumented migrants mobilizing in Berlin, Montréal, and Paris since the beginning of the 2000s construct different types of claims. The authors explore the relationship between undocumented migrants and state authorities at the local level through the concept of the citizenship regime and its specific application to undocumented migrants (which they describe as the “borderline citizenship regime”). Despite their common formal exclusion from citizenship, nonstatus migrants experience different degrees and forms of exclusion in their daily lives, in terms of access to certain rights and services, recognition, and belonging within the state (whether through formally or nonformally recognized means). As a result, they have an opportunity to create different, specific forms of leeway in the society in which they live. The concurrence of these different degrees of exclusion and different forms of leeway defines specific conditions of mobilization. The authors demonstrate how the content of their claims is influenced by these conditions of mobilization.

A simple device for the separation of weak larvae of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (De Man)

Larvae of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (De Man) are photopositive (Ling 1969a.b) and negatively rheotactic. While investigating larval diseases of M, rosenbergii it was observed that weak larvae failed to show both these responses. It was felt that this lack of response could be used to develop a device for separating the weak larvae from the apparently healthy ones. Such a device would be a valuable tool for assessing the health of a batch in terms of the percentage of 'healthy' and 'weak' larvae. What follows is a description and mode of operation of the 'photo-flow' device developed by the authors

Bud development, flowering and fruit set of Moringa oleifera Lam. (Horseradish Tree) as affected by various irrigation levels

Moringa oleifera is becoming increasingly popular as an industrial crop due to its multitude of useful attributes as water purifier, nutritional supplement and biofuel feedstock. Given its tolerance to sub-optimal growing conditions, most of the current and anticipated cultivation areas are in medium to low rainfall areas. This study aimed to assess the effect of various irrigation levels on floral initiation, flowering and fruit set. Three treatments namely, a 900 mm (900IT), 600 mm (600IT) and 300 mm (300IT) per annum irrigation treatment were administered through drip irrigation, simulating three total annual rainfall amounts. Individual inflorescences from each treatment were tagged during floral initiation and monitored throughout until fruit set. Flower bud initiation was highest at the 300IT and lowest at the 900IT for two consecutive growing seasons. Fruit set on the other hand, decreased with the decrease in irrigation treatment. Floral abortion, reduced pollen viability as well as moisture stress in the style were contributing factors to the reduction in fruiting/yield observed at the 300IT. Moderate water stress prior to floral initiation could stimulate flower initiation, however, this should be followed by sufficient irrigation to ensure good pollination, fruit set and yield.

On the Convergence of Stochastic Iterative Dynamic Programming Algorithms

Recent developments in the area of reinforcement learning have yielded a number of new algorithms for the prediction and control of Markovian environments. These algorithms, including the TD(lambda) algorithm of Sutton (1988) and the Q-learning algorithm of Watkins (1989), can be motivated heuristically as approximations to dynamic programming (DP). In this paper we provide a rigorous proof of convergence of these DP-based learning algorithms by relating them to the powerful techniques of stochastic approximation theory via a new convergence theorem. The theorem establishes a general class of convergent algorithms to which both TD(lambda) and Q-learning belong.