Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

A stochastic discount factor approach to asset pricing using panel data asymptotics

Using the Pricing Equation in a panel-data framework, we construct a novel consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) which relies on the fact that its logarithm is the "common feature" in every asset return of the economy. Our estimator is a simple function of asset returns and does not depend on any parametric function representing preferences. The techniques discussed in this paper were applied to two relevant issues in macroeconomics and finance: the first asks what type of parametric preference-representation could be validated by asset-return data, and the second asks whether or not our SDF estimator can price returns in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. In formal testing, we cannot reject standard preference specifications used in the macro/finance literature. Estimates of the relative risk-aversion coefficient are between 1 and 2, and statistically equal to unity. We also show that our SDF proxy can price reasonably well the returns of stocks with a higher capitalization level, whereas it shows some difficulty in pricing stocks with a lower level of capitalization.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

A governança corporativa nos clubes de futebol : um estudo multi-caso baseado nas práticas de governança corporativa dos clubes cariocas

Esta dissertação objetiva mapear as estruturas e as práticas de governança adotadas pelos clubes de futebol profissional no Brasil, aprofundando em estudo de caso o Flamengo, o Vasco da Gama, o Fluminense e o Botafogo. A partir de levantamento da situação econômico-financeira dos clubes brasileiros e da literatura dedicada à governança de associações e de clubes de futebol, foi realizado levantamento de aspectos da governança dispostos no Estatuto dos clubes, e dirigentes anteriores dos clubes foram entrevistados sobre esses aspectos. Para a análise desse material, buscou-se identificar o tratamento vinculado a aspectos fundamentais da boa governança tratados em códigos nacionais e internacionais. Os resultados evidenciaram uma grande diferença entre as estruturas e as práticas de governança dos clubes e aquelas recomendadas pelos códigos, apontando a necessidade de melhorias, mas também de melhores identificação e definição de boas práticas de governança específica para os clubes.

Earnings dynamics and inequality in Venezuela: 1995-1997

In this paper, we decompose the variance of logarithmic monthly earnings of prime age males into its permanent and transitory components, using a five-wave rotating panel from the Venezuelan “Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo” from 1995 to 1997. As far as we know, this is the first time a variance components model is estimated for a developing country. We test several specifications and find that an error component model with individual random effects and first order serially correlated errors fits the data well. In the simplest model, around 22% of earnings variance is explained by the variance of permanent component, 77% by purely stochastic variation and the remaining 1% by serial correlation. These results contrast with studies from industrial countries where the permanent component is predominant. The permanent component is usually interpreted as the results of productivity characteristics of individuals whereas the transitory component is due to stochastic perturbations such as job and/or price instability, among others. Our findings may be due to the timing of the panel when occurred precisely during macroeconomic turmoil resulting from a severe financial crisis. The findings suggest that earnings instability is an important source of inequality in a region characterized by high inequality and macroeconomic instability.

Microfounded forecasting

Our focus is on information in expectation surveys that can now be built on thousands (or millions) of respondents on an almost continuous-time basis (big data) and in continuous macroeconomic surveys with a limited number of respondents. We show that, under standard microeconomic and econometric techniques, survey forecasts are an affine function of the conditional expectation of the target variable. This is true whether or not the survey respondent knows the data-generating process (DGP) of the target variable or the econometrician knows the respondents individual loss function. If the econometrician has a mean-squared-error risk function, we show that asymptotically efficient forecasts of the target variable can be built using Hansens (Econometrica, 1982) generalized method of moments in a panel-data context, when N and T diverge or when T diverges with N xed. Sequential asymptotic results are obtained using Phillips and Moon s (Econometrica, 1999) framework. Possible extensions are also discussed.

Análise dos custos assistenciais de uma operadora de plano de saúde no Brasil

The relevance of rising healthcare costs is a main topic in complementary health companies in Brazil. In 2011, these expenses consumed more than 80% of the monthly health insurance in Brazil. Considering the administrative costs, it is observed that the companies operating in this market work, on average, at the threshold between profit and loss. This paper presents results after an investigation of the welfare costs of a health plan company in Brazil. It was based on the KDD process and explorative Data Mining. A diversity of results is presented, such as data summarization, providing compact descriptions of the data, revealing common features and intrinsic observations. Among the key findings was observed that a small portion of the population is responsible for the most demanding of resources devoted to health care

Double sampling (x)over-bar control chart for a first-order autoregressive moving average process model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

CrossMDA-SPL: uma abordagem para gerência de variabilidades dirigida por modelos e aspectos

This paper proposes a systematic approach to management of variability modelsdriven and aspects using the mechanisms of approaches Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) and Model-Driven Development (MDD). The main goal of the approach, named CrossMDA-SPL, is to improve the management(gerência), modularization and isolation ou separation of the variability of the LPSs of architecture in a high level of abstraction (model) at the design and implementing phases of development Software Product Lines (SPLs), exploiting the synergy between AOSD and MDD. The CrossMDA-SPL approach defines some artifacts basis for advance the separation clear in between the mandatory (bounden) and optional features in the architecture of SPL. The artifacts are represented by two models named: (i) core model (base domain) - responsible for specify the common features the all members of the SPL, and (ii) variability model - responsible for represent the variables features of SPL. In addition, the CrossMDA-SPL approach is composed of: (i) guidelines for modeling and representation of variability, (ii) CrossMDA-SPL services and process, and (iii) models of the architecture of SPL or product instance of SPL. The guidelines use the advantages of AOSD and MDD to promote a better modularization of the variable features of the architecture of SPL during the creation of core and variability models of the approach. The services and sub-processes are responsible for combination automatically, through of process of transformation between the core and variability models, and the generation of new models that represent the implementation of the architecture of SPL or a instance model of SPL. Mechanisms for effective modularization of variability for architectures of SPL at model level. The concepts are described and measured with the execution of a case study of an SPL for management systems of transport electronic tickets

Squid impact analyser: uma ferramenta para análise de impacto de mudança em linhas de produto de software

Software Products Lines (SPL) is a software engineering approach to developing software system families that share common features and differ in other features according to the requested software systems. The adoption of the SPL approach can promote several benefits such as cost reduction, product quality, productivity, and time to market. On the other hand, the SPL approach brings new challenges to the software evolution that must be considered. Recent research work has explored and proposed automated approaches based on code analysis and traceability techniques for change impact analysis in the context of SPL development. There are existing limitations concerning these approaches such as the customization of the analysis functionalities to address different strategies for change impact analysis, and the change impact analysis of fine-grained variability. This dissertation proposes a change impact analysis tool for SPL development, called Squid Impact Analyzer. The tool allows the implementation of change impact analysis based on information from variability modeling, mapping of variability to code assets, and existing dependency relationships between code assets. An assessment of the tool is conducted through an experiment that compare the change impact analysis results provided by the tool with real changes applied to several evolution releases from a SPL for media management in mobile devices

Anatomia de raízes de nove espécies de Bromeliaceae (Poales) da região amazônica do estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The interaction between heparin and Lys49 phospholipase A(2) reveals the natural binding of heparin on the enzyme

We have studied at a molecular level the interaction of heparins on bothropstoxin-1 (BthTx-1), a phospholipase A(2) toxin. The protein was monitored using gel filtration chromatography, dynamic light scattering (DLS), circular dichroism (CD), attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) and intrinsic tryptophan fluorescence emission (ITFE) spectroscopy. The elution profile of the protein presents a displacement of the protein peak to larger complexes when interacting with higher concentration of heparin. The DLS results shows two R-h at a molar ratio of 1, one to the distribution of the protein and the second for the action of heparin on BthTx-I structures, and a large distribution with the increase of protein. The interaction is accompanied by significant changes in the CD spectra, showing two common features: a decrease in signal at 208 nm (3 and 6 kDa heparins) and an isodichroic point near 226 nm (3 kDa heparin). FTIR spectra indicate that only a few amino acid residues are involved in this interaction. Alterations in the ITFE by binding heparins suggest that the initial binding occurs on the ventral face of BthTx-1. Together, these results add an experimental and structural basis on the action mechanism of the heparins over the phospholipases A(2) and provide a molecular model to elucidate the interaction of the enzyme-heparin complex at a molecular level. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cafeicultura científica globalizada e as montanhas capixabas: a produção de caféarábica nas regiões do Caparaó e Serrana do Espírito Santo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gráficos de controle de EWMA e de X-barra para monitoramento de processos autocorrelacionados

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Charge-orbital ordering and phase separation in the two-orbital model for manganites: Roles of Jahn-Teller phononic and Coulombic interactions

The main properties of realistic models for manganites are studied using analytic mean-field approximations and computational numerical methods, focusing on the two-orbital model with electrons interacting through Jahn-Teller (JT) phonons and/or Coulombic repulsions. Analyzing the model including both interactions by the combination of the mean-field approximation and the exact diagonalization method, it is argued that the spin-charge-orbital structure in the insulating phase of the purely JT-phononic model with a large Hund couphng J(H) is not qualitatively changed by the inclusion of the Coulomb interactions. As an important application of the present mean-held approximation, the CE-type antiferromagnetic state, the charge-stacked structure along the z axis, and (3x(2) - r(2))/(3y(2) - r(2))-type orbital ordering are successfully reproduced based on the JT-phononic model with large JH for the half-doped manganite, in agreement with recent Monte Carlo simulation results. Topological arguments and the relevance of the Heisenberg exchange among localized t(2g) spins explains why the inclusion of the nearest-neighbor Coulomb interaction does not destroy the charge stacking structure. It is also verified that the phase-separation tendency is observed both in purely JT-phononic (large JH) and purely Coulombic models in the vicinity of the hole undoped region, as long as realistic hopping matrices are used. This highlights the qualitative similarities of both approaches and the relevance of mixed-phase tendencies in the context of manganites. In addition, the rich and complex phase diagram of the two-orbital Coulombic model in one dimension is presented. Our results provide robust evidence that Coulombic and JT-phononic approaches to manganites are not qualitatively different ways to carry out theoretical calculations, but they share a variety of common features.