Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Sequential formation of coalitions through bilateral agreements

We study a sequential protocol of endogenous coalition formation based on a process of bilateral agreements among the players. We apply the game to a Cournot environment with linear demand and constant average costs. We show that the final outcome of any Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of the game is the grand coalition, provided the initial number of firms is high enough and they are sufficiently patient.

Welfare comparisons: sequential procedures for heterogenous populations

Some analysts use sequential dominance criteria, and others use equivalence scales in combination with non-sequential dominance tests, to make welfare comparisons of oint distributions of income and needs. In this paper we present a new sequential procedure hich copes with situations in which sequential dominance fails. We also demonstrate that there commendations deriving from the sequential approach are valid for distributions of equivalent income whatever equivalence scale the analyst might adopt. Thus the paper marries together the sequential and equivalizing approaches, seen as alternatives in much previous literature. All results are specified in forms which allow for demographic differences in the populations being compared.

Some observations on the biology and morphology of the immature stages of Psychodopygus wellcomei fraiha, shaw and lainson, 1971: (Diptera: psychodidae)

Under laboratory conditions, the development from egg to adult of P. wellcomei takes an average of 42 days. The larval tages are similar to those of P. arthuri, described by barretto (1941), but can be distinguished from this species by the ratio of the first to second antennal segment, by the form of the lateral head seate and prothoracic dorsolateral setae. The pupal stage of P. wellcomei is characterized by a trifid pre-alar seta and simple spine-like thoracic and abdominal setae.

Studies on Trypanosoma rangeli Tejera, 1920: IX. Course of infection in different stages of Rhodnius prolixus

Frequent individual observations od different stages of Rhodnius prolixus exposed to Trypanosoma rangeli, revealed a higher susceptibility to infection in the bugs exposed during the two first instars. The mortality rate in infected bugs was significantly higher than in controls, indicating that the parasite was responsible for the majority of deaths. An analysis of the mortality distribution, per instar, is presented. Statistical analysis of deaths among the different infected instars, showed that T. rangeli produces its pathological effect in any stage of R. prolixus independently of its susceptibility to the parasite. The survival to adult decreased in all the infected instar bugs. A significant longer time to reach the adult stage was observed in the infected bugs when compared with controls, excepting for specimens exposed in the third instar. The epidemiological significance of the present results is discussed.

Infective stages of Leishmania in the sandfly vector and some observations on the mechanism of transmission

Infective stages of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, capable of producing amastigote infections in hamster skin, were shown to be present in the experimentally infected sandfly vector Lutzomyia flaviscutellata 15, 25, 40, 49, 70, 96 and 120 hours after the flies had received their infective blood-meal. Similarly, infective stages of Leishmania (L.) chagasi were demonstrated in the experimentally infected vector Lu. longipalpis examined 38, 50, 63, 87, 110, 135, 171 and 221 hours following the infective blood-meal, by the intraperitoneal inoculation of the flagellates into hamsters. The question of whether or not transmission by the bite of the sandfly is dependent on the presence of [quot ]metacyclic[quot ] promastigotes in the mouthparts of the vector is discussed.

Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

Affirmative Action Policy and Effort Levels. Sequential-Move Contest Game Argument

In this paper we analyse a simple two-person sequential-move contest game with heterogeneous players. Assuming that the heterogeneity could be the consequence of past discrimination, we study the effects of implementation of affirmative action policy, which tackles this heterogeneity by compensating discriminated players, and compare them with the situation in which the heterogeneity is ignored and the contestants are treated equally. In our analysis we consider different orders of moves. We show that the order of moves of contestants is a very important factor in determination of the effects of the implementation of the affirmative action policy. We also prove that in such cases a significant role is played by the level of the heterogeneity of individuals. In particular, in contrast to the present-in-the-literature predictions, we demonstrate that as a consequence of the interplay of these two factors, the response to the implementation of the affirmative action policy option may be the decrease in the total equilibrium effort level of the contestants in comparison to the unbiased contest game.

Visual binding abilities in the initial and advanced stages of schizophrenia

OBJECTIVE: The study tests the hypothesis that intramodal visual binding is disturbed in schizophrenia and should be detectable in all illness stages as a stable trait marker. METHOD: Three groups of patients (rehospitalized chronic schizophrenic, first admitted schizophrenic and schizotypal patients believed to be suffering from a pre-schizophrenic prodrome) and a group of normal control subjects were tested on three tasks targeting visual 'binding' abilities (Muller-Lyer's illusion and two figure detection tasks) in addition to control parameters such as reaction time, visual selective attention, Raven's test and two conventional cortical tasks of spatial working memory (SWM) and a global local test. RESULTS: Chronic patients had a decreased performance on the binding tests. Unexpectedly, the prodromal group exhibited an enhanced Gestalt extraction on these tests compared both to schizophrenic patients and to healthy subjects. Furthermore, chronic schizophrenia was associated with a poor performance on cortical tests of SWM, global local and on Raven. This association appears to be mediated by or linked to the chronicity of the illness. CONCLUSION: The study confirms a variety of neurocognitive deficits in schizophrenia which, however, in this sample seem to be linked to chronicity of illness. However, certain aspects of visual processing concerned with Gestalt extraction deserve attention as potential vulnerability- or prodrome- indicators. The initial hypothesis of the study is rejected.

On the immature stages of two mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) originally described from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The fourth-instar larva and pupa of Psorophora pseudomelanota Barata & Cotrim, 1971 and Phoniomyia deanei Lourenço-de-Oliveira, 1983 are described and compared with those of related species.

The effectiveness and safety of rescue treatments in 108 patients with steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis with sequential rescue therapies in a subgroup of patients.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) in whom a first rescue therapy has failed, a second line salvage treatment can be considered to avoid colectomy. AIM: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of second or third line rescue therapy over a one-year period. METHODS: Response to single or sequential rescue treatments with infliximab (5mg/kg intravenously (iv) at week 0, 2, 6 and then every 8weeks), ciclosporin (iv 2mg/kg/daily and then oral 5mg/kg/daily) or tacrolimus (0.05mg/kg divided in 2 doses) in steroid-refractory moderate to severe UC patients from 7 Swiss and 1 Serbian tertiary IBD centers was retrospectively studied. The primary endpoint was the one year colectomy rate. RESULTS: 60% of patients responded to the first rescue therapy, 10% went to colectomy and 30% non-responders were switched to a 2(nd) line rescue treatment. 66% of patients responded to the 2(nd) line treatment whereas 34% failed, of which 15% went to colectomy and 19% received a 3(rd) line rescue treatment. Among those, 50% patients went to colectomy. Overall colectomy rate of the whole cohort was 18%. Steroid-free remission rate was 39%. The adverse event rates were 33%, 37.5% and 30% for the first, second and third line treatment respectively. CONCLUSION: Our data show that medical intervention even with 2(nd) and 3(rd) rescue treatments decreased colectomy frequency within one year of follow up. A longer follow-up will be necessary to investigate whether sequential therapy will only postpone colectomy and what percentage of patients will remain in long-term remission.

Relative susceptibility of different stages of Rhodinius Prolixus to the entomopathogenic Hyphomycete Beauveria Bassiana

Laboratory bioassays were conducted to determine the relative suscepbility of eggs, 1st-, 3rd-, 5th- instar nymphs and adults of Rhodnius prolixus to one isolate of the entomopathogenic hyphomycete, Beauveria bassiana. Treatments consisted of directly spraying on insects of increasing doses of inoculum (3 x 10* to 3 x 10 (elevated to 5th potency) conidia per cm*). Mortality due to all doses of conidia was very high in the five tested stages of the target insect. Experiments on eggs demonstrated that the fungal isolate was able to kill eggs before they hatched. Both time-mortality and dose-mortality responses showed that the susceptibility of R. prolixus varied according to its stage of development and increased with age. As matter of fact, at the dose of 3 x 10* conidia per cm*, LD50 varied between 11.2 days in 1st-instar nymphs and 6.4 days in both 5th-instar nymphs and adults. Comparison of LD50 permitted to estimate that 1st-instar nymphs were about 700-fold less susceptible than the two oldest stages