Sensitivity of building zones to potential global warming

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal and energy performance of existing buildings, which are designed based on current weather data, may become unclear and remain a great concern. Through building computer simulation and qualitative analysis of the weighted factor for the outdoor temperature impact on building energy and thermal performance, this paper investigates the sensitivity of different office building zoning to the potential global warming. A standard office building type is examined for all eight capital cities in Australia. Results show that comparing the middle and top floors, except for cool climate (i.e. Hobart), the ground floor appears to be the most sensitive to the effect of global warming and has the highest tendency for a overheating problem. From the analysis of the responses of different zone orientations to the outdoor air temperature increase, it is also found that there are widely varied responses between zone orientations, with South zone (in the southern hemisphere) being the most sensitive. With an increased external air temperature, the variation between different floors or zone orientations will become more significant, up to 53 percent increase of overheating hours in Darwin and 47 percent increase of cooling load in Hobart.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

The influence of sensitivity to reward and punishment, propensity for sensation seeking, depression, and anxiety on the risky behaviour of novice drivers : a path model

Young novice drivers are significantly more likely to be killed or injured in car crashes than older, experienced drivers. Graduated driver licensing (GDL), which allows the novice to gain driving experience under less-risky circumstances, has resulted in reduced crash incidence; however, the driver's psychological traits are ignored. This paper explores the relationships between gender, age, anxiety, depression, sensitivity to reward and punishment, sensation-seeking propensity, and risky driving. Participants were 761 young drivers aged 17–24 (M= 19.00, SD= 1.56) with a Provisional (intermediate) driver's licence who completed an online survey comprising socio-demographic questions, the Impulsive Sensation Seeking Scale, Kessler's Psychological Distress Scale, the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire, and the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale. Path analysis revealed depression, reward sensitivity, and sensation-seeking propensity predicted the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice drivers. Gender was a moderator; and the anxiety level of female drivers also influenced their risky driving. Interventions do not directly consider the role of rewards and sensation seeking, or the young person's mental health. An approach that does take these variables into account may contribute to improved road safety outcomes for both young and older road users.

The role of soil characteristics on temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter

The uncertainty associated with how projected climate change will affect global C cycling could have a large impact on predictions of soil C stocks. The purpose of our study was to determine how various soil decomposition and chemistry characteristics relate to soil organic matter (SOM) temperature sensitivity. We accomplished this objective using long-term soil incubations at three temperatures (15, 25, and 35°C) and pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) on 12 soils from 6 sites along a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (2–25.6°C). The Q10 values calculated from the CO2 respired during a long-term incubation using the Q10-q method showed decomposition of the more resistant fraction to be more temperature sensitive with a Q10-q of 1.95 ± 0.08 for the labile fraction and a Q10-q of 3.33 ± 0.04 for the more resistant fraction. We compared the fit of soil respiration data using a two-pool model (active and slow) with first-order kinetics with a three-pool model and found that the two and three-pool models statistically fit the data equally well. The three-pool model changed the size and rate constant for the more resistant pool. The size of the active pool in these soils, calculated using the two-pool model, increased with incubation temperature and ranged from 0.1 to 14.0% of initial soil organic C. Sites with an intermediate MAT and lowest C/N ratio had the largest active pool. Pyrolysis molecular beam mass spectrometry showed declines in carbohydrates with conversion from grassland to wheat cultivation and a greater amount of protected carbohydrates in allophanic soils which may have lead to differences found between the total amount of CO2 respired, the size of the active pool, and the Q10-q values of the soils.

Visual voice activity detection using frontal versus profile views

Visual activity detection of lip movements can be used to overcome the poor performance of voice activity detection based solely in the audio domain, particularly in noisy acoustic conditions. However, most of the research conducted in visual voice activity detection (VVAD) has neglected addressing variabilities in the visual domain such as viewpoint variation. In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of the visual information from the speaker’s frontal and profile views (i.e left and right side views) for the task of VVAD. As far as we are aware, our work constitutes the first real attempt to study this problem. We describe our visual front end approach and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based VVAD framework, and report the experimental results using the freely available CUAVE database. The experimental results show that VVAD is indeed possible from profile views and we give a quantitative comparison of VVAD based on frontal and profile views The results presented are useful in the development of multi-modal Human Machine Interaction (HMI) using a single camera, where the speaker’s face may not always be frontal.

Thermal profile of a near-adiabatic compression process in a cylindrical tube and establishment of critical control elements for repeatable process control

The compressed gas industry and government agencies worldwide utilize "adiabatic compression" testing for qualifying high-pressure valves, regulators, and other related flow control equipment for gaseous oxygen service. This test methodology is known by various terms including adiabatic compression testing, gaseous fluid impact testing, pneumatic impact testing, and BAM testing as the most common terms. The test methodology will be described in greater detail throughout this document but in summary it consists of pressurizing a test article (valve, regulator, etc.) with gaseous oxygen within 15 to 20 milliseconds (ms). Because the driven gas1 and the driving gas2 are rapidly compressed to the final test pressure at the inlet of the test article, they are rapidly heated by the sudden increase in pressure to sufficient temperatures (thermal energies) to sometimes result in ignition of the nonmetallic materials (seals and seats) used within the test article. In general, the more rapid the compression process the more "adiabatic" the pressure surge is presumed to be and the more like an isentropic process the pressure surge has been argued to simulate. Generally speaking, adiabatic compression is widely considered the most efficient ignition mechanism for directly kindling a nonmetallic material in gaseous oxygen and has been implicated in many fire investigations. Because of the ease of ignition of many nonmetallic materials by this heating mechanism, many industry standards prescribe this testing. However, the results between various laboratories conducting the testing have not always been consistent. Research into the test method indicated that the thermal profile achieved (i.e., temperature/time history of the gas) during adiabatic compression testing as required by the prevailing industry standards has not been fully modeled or empirically verified, although attempts have been made. This research evaluated the following questions: 1) Can the rapid compression process required by the industry standards be thermodynamically and fluid dynamically modeled so that predictions of the thermal profiles be made, 2) Can the thermal profiles produced by the rapid compression process be measured in order to validate the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic models; and, estimate the severity of the test, and, 3) Can controlling parameters be recommended so that new guidelines may be established for the industry standards to resolve inconsistencies between various test laboratories conducting tests according to the present standards?

Active regulation of the epidermal calcium profile

A distinct calcium profile is strongly implicated in regulating the multi-layered structure of the epidermis. However, the mechanisms that govern the regulation of this calcium profile are currently unclear. It clearly depends on the relatively impermeable barrier of the stratum corneum (passive regulation) but may also depend on calcium exchanges between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid (active regulation). Using a mathematical model that treats the viable sublayers of unwounded human and murine epidermis as porous media and assumes that their calcium profiles are passively regulated, we demonstrate that these profiles are also actively regulated. To obtain this result, we found that diffusion governs extracellular calcium motion in the viable epidermis and hence intracellular calcium is the main source of the epidermal calcium profile. Then, by comparison with experimental calcium profiles and combination with a hypothesised cell velocity distribution in the viable epidermis, we found that the net influx of calcium ions into keratinocytes from extracellular fluid may be constant and positive throughout the stratum basale and stratum spinosum, and that there is a net outflux of these ions in the stratum granulosum. Hence the calcium exchange between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid differs distinctly between the stratum granulosum and the underlying sublayers, and these differences actively regulate the epidermal calcium profile. Our results also indicate that plasma membrane dysfunction may be an early event during keratinocyte disintegration in the stratum granulosum.

Sensitivity of building cooling loads to future weather predictions

The interaction and relationship between the global warming and the thermal performance buildings are dynamic in nature. In order to model and understand this behavior, different approaches, including keeping weather variable unchanged, morphing approach and diurnal modelling method, have been used to project and generate future weather data. Among these approaches, various assumptions on the change of solar radiation, air humidity and/or wind characteristics may be adopted. In this paper, an example to illustrate the generation of future weather data for the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. The sensitivity of building cooling loads to the possible changes of assumed values used in the future weather data generation is investigated. It is shown that with ± 10% change of the proposed future values for solar radiation, air humidity or wind characteristics, the corresponding change in the cooling load of the modeled sample office building at different Australian capital cities would not exceed 6%, 4% and 1.5% respectively. It is also found that with ±10% changes on the proposed weather variables for both the 2070-high future scenario and the current weather scenario, the corresponding change in the cooling loads at different locations may be weaker (up to 2% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in global solar radiation), similar (less than 0.6%) difference in Hobart for ±10% change in wind speed), or stronger (up to 1.6% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in relative humidity) in the 2070-high future scenario than in the current weather scenario.

Sensitivity of office building zones to global warming

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were designed based on current weather data, may become unclear and remain a great concern. Through building computer simulation, this paper investigates the sensitivity of different office building zoning to the potential global warming. From the sample office building examined, it is found that compared with the middle and top floors, the ground floor for most cities appears to be most sensitive to the effect of global warming and has the highest tendency to having the overheating problem. From the analysis of the responses of different zone orientations to the outdoor air temperature increase, it is also found that there are widely different responses between different zone orientations, with South or Core zone being most sensitive. With an increased external air temperature, the difference between different floors or different zone orientations will become more significant.

Information sharing in Onesocialweb using a multiple profile manager to better informed medical decision making processes

The study shows an alternative solution to existing efforts at solving the problem of how to centrally manage and synchronise users’ Multiple Profiles (MP) across multiple discrete social networks. Most social network users hold more than one social network account and utilise them in different ways depending on the digital context (Iannella, 2009a). They may, for example, enjoy friendly chat on Facebook1, professional discussion on LinkedIn2, and health information exchange on PatientsLikeMe3 In this thesis the researcher proposes a framework for the management of a user’s multiple online social network profiles. A demonstrator, called Multiple Profile Manager (MPM), will be showcased to illustrate how effective the framework will be. The MPM will achieve the required profile management and synchronisation using a free, open, decentralized social networking platform (OSW) that was proposed by the Vodafone Group in 2010. The proposed MPM will enable a user to create and manage an integrated profile (IP) and share/synchronise this profile with all their social networks. The necessary protocols to support the prototype are also proposed by the researcher. The MPM protocol specification defines an Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) extension for sharing vCard and social network accounts information between the MPM Server, MPM Client, and social network sites (SNSs). . Therefore many web users need to manage disparate profiles across many distributed online sources. Maintaining these profiles is cumbersome, time-consuming, inefficient, and may lead to lost opportunity. The writer of this thesis adopted a research approach and a number of use cases for the implementation of the project. The use cases were created to capture the functional requirements of the MPM and to describe the interactions between users and the MPM. In the research a development process was followed in establishing the prototype and related protocols. The use cases were subsequently used to illustrate the prototype via the screenshots taken of the MPM client interfaces. The use cases also played a role in evaluating the outcomes of the research such as the framework, prototype, and the related protocols. An innovative application of this project is in the area of public health informatics. The researcher utilised the prototype to examine how the framework might benefit patients and physicians. The framework can greatly enhance health information management for patients and more importantly offer a more comprehensive personal health overview of patients to physicians. This will give a more complete picture of the patient’s background than is currently available and will prove helpful in providing the right treatment. The MPM prototype and related protocols have a high application value as they can be integrated into the real OSW platform and so serve users in the modern digital world. They also provide online users with a real platform for centrally storing their complete profile data, efficiently managing their personal information, and moreover, synchronising the overall complete profile with each of their discrete profiles stored in their different social network sites.