862 resultados para Semi-competing risks


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Computer simulation was used to suggest potential selection strategies for beef cattle breeders with different mixes of clients between two potential markets. The traditional market paid on the basis of carcass weight (CWT), while a new market considered marbling grade in addition to CWT as a basis for payment. Both markets instituted discounts for CWT in excess of 340 kg and light carcasses below 300 kg. Herds were simulated for each price category on the carcass weight grid for the new market. This enabled the establishment of phenotypic relationships among the traits examined [CWT, percent intramuscular fat (IMF), carcass value in the traditional market, carcass value in the new market, and the expected proportion of progeny in elite price cells in the new market pricing grid]. The appropriateness of breeding goals was assessed on the basis of client satisfaction. Satisfaction was determined by the equitable distribution of available stock between markets combined with the assessment of the utility of the animal within the market to which it was assigned. The best goal for breeders with predominantly traditional clients was a CWT in excess of 330 kg, while that for breeders with predominantly new market clients was a CWT of between 310 and 329 kg and with a marbling grade of AAA in the Ontario carcass pricing system. For breeders who wished to satisfy both new and traditional clients, the optimal CWT was 310-329 kg and the optimal marbling grade was AA-AAA. This combination resulted in satisfaction levels of greater than 75% among clients, regardless of the distribution of the clients between the traditional and new marketplaces.

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The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Along with material characteristics and geometry, the climate in which a mine is located can have a dramatic effect on the appropriate options for rehabilitation. The paper outlines the setting, mining, milling and waste disposal at Kidston Gold Mine's open pit operations in the semi-arid climate of North Queensland, Australia, before focusing on the engineering aspects of the rehabilitation of Kidston. The mine took a holistic and proactive approach to rehabilitation, and was prepared to demonstrate a number of innovative approaches, which are described in the paper. Engineering issues that had to be addressed included the geotechnical stability and deformation of waste rock dumps, including a 240 m high in-pit dump: the construction and performance monitoring of a “store and release” cover over potentially acid forming mineralised waste rock; erosion from the side slopes of the waste rock dumps; the in-pit co-disposal of waste rock and thickened tailings; the geotechnical stability of the tailings dam wall; the potential for erosion of bare tailings; the water balance of the tailings dam; direct revegetation of the tailings; and the pit hydrology. The rehabilitation of the mine represents an important benchmark in mine site rehabilitation best practice, from which lessons applicable worldwide can be shared.

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Semi-aquatic animals represent a transitional locomotor condition characterised by the possession of morphological features that allow locomotion both in water and on land. Most ecologically important behaviours of crocodilians occur in the water, raising the question of whether their 'terrestrial construction' constrains aquatic locomotion. Moreover, the demands for aquatic locomotion change with life-history stage. It was the aim of this research to determine the kinematic characteristics and efficiency of aquatic locomotion in different-sized crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus). Aquatic propulsion was achieved primarily by tail undulations, and the use of limbs during swimming was observed only in very small animals or at low swimming velocities in larger animals. Over the range of swimming speeds we examined, tail beat amplitude did not change with increasing velocity, but amplitude increased significantly with body length. However, amplitude expressed relative to body length decreased with increasing body length. Tail beat frequency increased with swimming velocity but there were no differences in frequency between different-sized animals. Mechanical power generated during swimming and thrust increased non-linearly with swimming velocity, but disproportionally so that kinematic efficiency decreased with increasing swimming velocity. The importance of unsteady forces, expressed as the reduced frequency, increased with increasing swimming velocity. Amplitude is the main determinant of body-size-related increases in swimming velocity but, compared with aquatic mammals and fish, crocodiles are slow swimmers probably because of constraints imposed by muscle performance and unsteady forces opposing forward movement. Nonetheless, the kinematic efficiency of aquatic locomotion in crocodiles is comparable to that of fully aquatic mammals, and it is considerably greater than that of semi-aquatic mammals.

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This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Evidence for nearly synchronous climate oscillations during the last deglaciation has been found throughout the Northern Hemisphere but few records are based on independent time scales of calendar years. We present a rare uranium-series dated oxygen-carbon isotope record for a speleothem from Tangshan Cave, China, which demonstrates that abrupt deglacial climatic oscillations from 16 800 to 10 500 yr BP are semi-synchronous with those found in Greenland ice core records. Relatively rapid shifts in speleothem oxygen isotope ratios demonstrate that the intensity of the East Asian monsoon switched in parallel with the abrupt transitions separating the Bolling-Allerod, Younger Dryas, and pre-Boreal climatic reversals. However, the dated isotopic transitions appear to have lasted longer. Our results demonstrate the dominant role of atmospheric teleconnections in the rapid propagation of deglacial climatic signals on a hemispheric scale, and highlight the importance of U-series dated speleothems in the timing and characterization of abrupt climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A tese afirma a vida por meio das biopotências que se manifestam em movimentações invisíveis aos olhos acostumados a permitir o ver, o julgar e o falar. Foca o tempo presente, na comunicação em redes, traz em si a potência de reatar a multidão, com a capacidade de sondar possibilidades mostrando o que antes parecia opaco e impossível. Perambular é ligar nas redes quentes de um bairro com/no/do território ao privilegiar o movimento, o processo, sempre caminhando pelas vias e conexões abertas, aposta estética-ética-política nos paradoxos sem superação e não hierarquizados. Toma como método de pesquisa-intervenção elementos de uma cartografia de movimentos e devires, traçando um perambular rizomático em que são problematizados a constituição do problema de pesquisa, que considera a construção do conhecimento diversificada, descentralizada e horizontalizada. Problematiza as práticas discursivas de si em suas relações com a biopolítica, a governabilidade e a biopolítica das populações. O que está(rá) rolando nesse bairro, no que foi chamado de criança, adolescente, escola, compor para que as coisas apareçam, junto com outros que vivem a loucura em duplas e trios. A tese é a possibilidade da existência de uma educação menor na periferia para as populações marginalizadas, muçulmanizadas. Educação menor, da sala de aula, do bairro, do cotidiano de professores, familiares e alunos. Educação que permite revolucionários, na medida em que alguma revolução ainda faz sentido na educação nesses dias. A educação menor constitui-se, assim, num empreendimento de militância, de professores militantes. Plano das afecções em que não há unidades, apenas intensidade. A tese fala do processo, de como reproduzir, ou não, os modos de subjetividade dominante, não se trata de medidas - "menor" ou "pequeno". Nesse sentido, é preciso considerar os efeitos de produção de subjetividade e a incorporação dos fatos à própria vida. A tese analisa movimentos instituintes buscando reconhecê-los em sua natureza contestatória e transgressora e ter conhecimento de como se organiza na escola e muito além dela. Discutindo a produtividade dessa coreografia do perambular, esboçamos movimentos que denominamos: estradas que levam a nada, além muro

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This article addresses the consequences of economic sanctions for the protection of human rights in Latin America. The literature on sanctions and compliance informs three hypotheses, which investigate the relationship between sanctions and the level of rights protection in two groups of countries: those that were targeted by sanctions and those that were not. Using data from the Political Terror Scale (PTS) and from Freedom House, I find empirical evidence that sanctions do improve the level of protection in countries that were not targeted. This finding can be explained by the deterrent effect attributed to sanctions by the compliance literature, broadly interpreted. The presence of economic sanctions in a given year increases the probability of observing better human rights practices by almost 50%. These results hold for the 12 Latin American countries that were not subject to economic sanctions for the period 1976-2004.