On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pamidronate for the treatment of osteoporosis secondary to chronic cholestatic liver disease in Wistar rats

Osteoporosis is a major complication of chronic cholestatic liver disease (CCLD). We evaluated the efficacy of using disodium pamidronate (1.0 mg/kg body weight) for the prevention (Pr) or treatment (Tr) of cholestasis-induced osteoporosis in male Wistar rats: sham-operated (Sham = 12); bile duct-ligated (Bi = 15); bile duct-ligated animals previously treated with pamidronate before and 1 month after surgery (Pr = 9); bile duct-ligated animals treated with pamidronate 1 month after surgery (Tr = 9). Rats were sacrificed 8 weeks after surgery. Immunohistochemical expression of IGF-I and GH receptor was determined in the proximal growth plate cartilage of the left tibia. Histomorphometric analysis was performed in the right tibia and the right femur was used for biomechanical analysis. Bone material volume over tissue volume (BV/TV) was significantly affected by CCLD (Sham = 18.1 ± 3.2 vs Bi = 10.6 ± 2.2%) and pamidronate successfully increased bone volume. However, pamidronate administered in a preventive regimen presented no additional benefit on bone volume compared to secondary treatment (BV/TV: Pr = 39.4 ± 12.0; Tr = 41.2 ± 12.7%). Moreover, the force on the momentum of fracture was significantly reduced in Pr rats (Sham = 116.6 ± 23.0; Bi = 94.6 ± 33.8; Pr = 82.9 ± 22.8; Tr = 92.5 ± 29.5 N; P < 0.05, Sham vs Pr). Thus, CCLD had a significant impact on bone histomorphometric parameters and pamidronate was highly effective in increasing bone mass in CCLD; however, preventive therapy with pamidronate has no advantage regarding bone fragility.

Secondary skull fractures in head wounds inflicted by captive bolt guns: autopsy findings and experimental simulation

Apart from one article published by Rabl and Sigrist in 1992 (Rechtsmedizin 2:156-158), there are no further reports on secondary skull fractures in shots from captive bolt guns. Up to now, the pertinent literature places particular emphasis on the absence of indirect lesions away from the impact point, when dealing with the wounding capacity of slaughterer's guns. The recent observation of two suicidal head injuries accompanied by skull fractures far away from the bolt's path gave occasion to experimental studies using simulants (glycerin soap, balls from gelatin) and skull brain models. As far as ballistic soap was concerned, the dimensions of the bolt's channel were assessed by multi-slice computed tomography before cutting the blocks open. The test shots to gelatin balls and to skull-brain models were documented by means of a high-speed motion camera. As expected, the typical temporary cavity effect of bullets fired from conventional guns could not be observed when captive bolt stunners were discharged. Nevertheless, the visualized transfer of kinetic energy justifies the assumption that the secondary fractures seen in thin parts of the skull were caused by a hydraulic burst effect.

Secondary collisions revisited: real-world crash data and relationship to crash test criteria

Objectives: Previous research conducted in the late 1980s suggested that vehicle impacts following an initial barrier collision increase severe occupant injury risk. Now over 25years old, the data are no longer representative of the currently installed barriers or the present US vehicle fleet. The purpose of this study is to provide a present-day assessment of secondary collisions and to determine if current full-scale barrier crash testing criteria provide an indication of secondary collision risk for real-world barrier crashes. Methods: To characterize secondary collisions, 1,363 (596,331 weighted) real-world barrier midsection impacts selected from 13years (1997-2009) of in-depth crash data available through the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) / Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) were analyzed. Scene diagram and available scene photographs were used to determine roadside and barrier specific variables unavailable in NASS/CDS. Binary logistic regression models were developed for second event occurrence and resulting driver injury. To investigate current secondary collision crash test criteria, 24 full-scale crash test reports were obtained for common non-proprietary US barriers, and the risk of secondary collisions was determined using recommended evaluation criteria from National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 350. Results: Secondary collisions were found to occur in approximately two thirds of crashes where a barrier is the first object struck. Barrier lateral stiffness, post-impact vehicle trajectory, vehicle type, and pre-impact tracking conditions were found to be statistically significant contributors to secondary event occurrence. The presence of a second event was found to increase the likelihood of a serious driver injury by a factor of 7 compared to cases with no second event present. The NCHRP Report 350 exit angle criterion was found to underestimate the risk of secondary collisions in real-world barrier crashes. Conclusions: Consistent with previous research, collisions following a barrier impact are not an infrequent event and substantially increase driver injury risk. The results suggest that using exit-angle based crash test criteria alone to assess secondary collision risk is not sufficient to predict second collision occurrence for real-world barrier crashes.

Secondary Collisions Revisited: Real-World Crash Characteristics and Relationship to Crash Test Criteria

Previous research conducted in the late 1980’s suggested that vehicle impacts following an initial barrier collision increase severe occupant injury risk. Now over twenty-five years old, the data used in the previous research is no longer representative of the currently installed barriers or US vehicle fleet. The purpose of this study is to provide a present-day assessment of secondary collisions and to determine if full-scale barrier crash testing criteria provide an indication of secondary collision risk for real-world barrier crashes. The analysis included 1,383 (596,331 weighted) real-world barrier midsection impacts selected from thirteen years (1997-2009) of in-depth crash data available through the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) / Crashworthiness Data System (CDS). For each suitable case, the scene diagram and available scene photographs were used to determine roadside and barrier specific variables not available in NASS/CDS. Binary logistic regression models were developed for second event occurrence and resulting driver injury. Barrier lateral stiffness, post-impact vehicle trajectory, vehicle type, and pre-impact tracking conditions were found to be statistically significant contributors toward secondary event occurrence. The presence of a second event was found to increase the likelihood of a serious driver injury by a factor of seven compared to cases with no second event present. Twenty-four full-scale crash test reports were obtained for common non-proprietary US barriers, and the risk of secondary collisions was determined using recommended evaluation criteria from NCHRP Report 350. It was found that the NCHRP Report 350 exit angle criterion alone was not sufficient to predict second collision occurrence for real-world barrier crashes.

Impact of Helicobacter pylori eradication on dyspepsia, health resource use, and quality of life in the Bristol helicobacter project: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of a community based Helicobacter pylori screening and eradication programme on the incidence of dyspepsia, resource use, and quality of life, including a cost consequences analysis. DESIGN: H pylori screening programme followed by randomised placebo controlled trial of eradication. SETTING: Seven general practices in southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: 10,537 unselected people aged 20-59 years were screened for H pylori infection (13C urea breath test); 1558 of the 1636 participants who tested positive were randomised to H pylori eradication treatment or placebo, and 1539 (99%) were followed up for two years. INTERVENTION: Ranitidine bismuth citrate 400 mg and clarithromycin 500 mg twice daily for two weeks or placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary care consultation rates for dyspepsia (defined as epigastric pain) two years after randomisation, with secondary outcomes of dyspepsia symptoms, resource use, NHS costs, and quality of life. RESULTS: In the eradication group, 35% fewer participants consulted for dyspepsia over two years compared with the placebo group (55/787 v 78/771; odds ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.94; P = 0.021; number needed to treat 30) and 29% fewer participants had regular symptoms (odds ratio 0.71, 0.56 to 0.90; P = 0.05). NHS costs were 84.70 pounds sterling (74.90 pounds sterling to 93.91 pounds sterling) greater per participant in the eradication group over two years, of which 83.40 pounds sterling (146 dollars; 121 euro) was the cost of eradication treatment. No difference in quality of life existed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Community screening and eradication of H pylori is feasible in the general population and led to significant reductions in the number of people who consulted for dyspepsia and had symptoms two years after treatment. These benefits have to be balanced against the costs of eradication treatment, so a targeted eradication strategy in dyspeptic patients may be preferable.

Health risk appraisal in older people 3: prevalence, impact, and context of pain and their implications for GPs

BACKGROUND: Pain is a common experience in later life. There is conflicting evidence of the prevalence, impact, and context of pain in older people. GPs are criticised for underestimating and under-treating pain. AIM: To assess the extent to which older people experience pain, and to explore relationships between self-reported pain and functional ability and depression. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 1090 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over were included in the study from three group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Main outcome measures were pain in the last 4 weeks and the impact of pain, measured using the 24-item Geriatric Pain Measure; depression symptoms captured using the 5-item Mental Health Inventory; social relationships measured using the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale; Basic and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living and self-reported symptoms. RESULTS: Forty-five per cent of women and 34% of men reported pain in the previous 4 weeks. Pain experience appeared to be less in the 'oldest old': 27.5% of those aged 85 years and over reported pain compared with 38-53% of the 'younger old'. Those with arthritis were four times more likely to report pain. Pain had a profound impact on activities of daily living, but most of those reporting pain described their health as good or excellent. Although there was a significant association between the experience of pain and depressed mood, the majority of those reporting pain did not have depressed mood. CONCLUSION: A multidimensional approach to assessing pain is appropriate. Primary care practitioners should also assess the impact of pain on activities of daily living.

Emphysema and secondary pneumothorax in young adults smoking cannabis

BACKGROUND: We observed a remarkable increase in the number of young patients who presented with lung emphysema and secondary spontaneous pneumothorax (SSP) at our institution for over a period of 30 months; most of them have a common history of marijuana abuse. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case series. METHODS: Seventeen young patients presented with spontaneous pneumothorax with bullous lung emphysema were systematically evaluated over a period of 30 months. All were regular marijuana smokers. Clinical history, chest X-ray, CT-scan, lung function test, and laboratory and histological examinations were assessed. We compared the findings of this group (group I) with the findings of non-marijuana smoking patients (group II) in the same period. The findings of this series were also compared with the findings of 75 patients presented with pneumothorax in a previous period from January 2000 till March 2002 (group III). RESULTS: In group I, there were 17 patients: the median age of the patients was 27 years (range 19-43 years), 16 males and 1 female. All were living in Switzerland. All but one smoked marijuana daily for a mean of 8.8 years and tobacco for 11.8 years. CT-scan showed multiple bullae at the apex or significant bullous emphysema with predominance in the upper lobes only in two patients. Only two patients had reduced forced first second expiratory volume (FEV1) and one reduced vital capacity (VC) below the predicted 50%. This correlated with the subjectively asymptomatic condition of the patients. All but two patients were treated by video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) for prevention of relapsing pneumothorax. Histology showed severe lung emphysema, inflammation, and heavily pigmented macrophages. In group II, there were 85 patients: there were 78 males, the median age was 24 years (range 17-40 years), 74 patients smoked tobacco for 13.4 years but no marijuana. CT-scan in 72 patients showed only small bullae at the apex but no significant emphysema; other clinical, laboratory, and histopathological findings showed no significant difference in group I. In group III, there were 75 patients: there were 71 males and 4 females. Mean age was 25 years (range 16-46 years). Six smoked marijuana daily for a mean of 3.2 years, and 62 smoked tobacco for 14 years. CT-scan done in 59 patients showed few small bullae at the apex but no significant lung emphysema. The presence of lung emphysema on CT-scan in group I was significantly different than in groups II and III (p=0.14). No significant difference was found among all groups in the form of clinical, laboratory, and histopathological findings. CONCLUSIONS: In case of emphysema in young individuals, marijuana abuse has to be considered in the differential diagnosis. The period of marijuana smoking seems to play an important role in the development of lung emphysema. This obviously quite frequent condition in young and so far asymptomatic patients will have medical, financial, and ethical impact, as some of these patients may be severely handicapped or even become lung transplant candidates in the future.

Aromatase deficiency in a female who is compound heterozygote for two new point mutations in the P450arom gene: impact of estrogens on hypergonadotropic hypogonadism, multicystic ovaries, and bone densitometry in childhood

We report on a female who is compound heterozygote for two new point mutations in the CYP19 gene. The allele inherited from her mother presented a base pair deletion (C) occurring at P408 (CCC, exon 9), causing a frameshift that results in a nonsense codon 111 bp (37 aa) further down in the CYP19 gene. The allele inherited from her father showed a point mutation from G-->A at the splicing point (canonical GT to mutational AT) between exon and intron 3. This mutation ignores the splice site and a stop codon 3 bp downstream occurs. Aromatase deficiency was already suspected because of the marked virilization occurring prepartum in the mother, and the diagnosis was confirmed shortly after birth. Extremely low levels of serum estrogens were found in contrast to high levels of androgens. Ultrasonographic follow-up studies revealed persistently enlarged ovaries (19.5-22 mL) during early childhood (2 to 4 yr) which contained numerous large cysts up to 4.8 x 3.7 cm and normal-appearing large tertiary follicles already at the age of 2 yr. In addition, both basal and GnRH-induced FSH levels remained consistently strikingly elevated. Low-dose estradiol (E2) (0.4 mg/day) given for 50 days at the age of 3 6/12 yr resulted in normalization of serum gonadotropin levels, regression of ovarian size, and increase of whole body and lumbar spine (L1-L4) bone mineral density. The FSH concentration and ovarian size returned to pretreatment levels shortly (150 days) after cessation of E2 therapy. Therefore, we recommend that affected females be treated with low-dose E2 in amounts sufficient to result in physiological prepubertal E2 concentrations using an ultrasensitive estrogen assay. However, E2 replacement needs to be adjusted throughout childhood and puberty to ensure normal skeletal maturation and adequate adolescent growth spurt, normal accretion of bone mineral density, and, at the appropriate age, female secondary sex maturation.

Impact of a stress coping strategy on perceived stress levels and performance during a simulated cardiopulmonary resuscitation: a randomized controlled trial

Background Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) causes significant stress, which may cause deficiencies in attention and increase distractibility. This may lead to misjudgements of priorities and delays in CPR performance, which may further increase mental stress (vicious cycle). This study assessed the impact of a task-focusing strategy on perceived stress levels and performance during a simulated CPR scenario. Methods This prospective, randomized-controlled trial was conducted at the simulator-center of the University Hospital Basel, Switzerland. A total of 124 volunteer medical students were randomized to receive a 10 minute instruction to cope with stress by loudly posing two taskfocusing questions (“what is the patient’s condition?”, “what immediate action is needed?”) when feeling overwhelmed by stress (intervention group) or a control group. The primary outcome was the perceived levels of stress and feeling overwhelmed (stress/overload); secondary outcomes were hands-on time, time to start CPR and number of leadership statements. Results Participants in the intervention group reported significantly less stress/overload levels compared to the control group (mean difference: -0.6 (95%CI −1.3, -0.1), p=0.04). Higher stress/overload was associated with less hands-on time. Leadership statements did not differ between groups, but the number of leadership statements did relate to performance. Hands-on time was longer in the intervention- group, but the difference was not statistically different (difference 5.5 (95%CI −3.1, 14.2), p=0.2); there were no differences in time to start CPR (difference −1.4 (95%CI −8.4, 5.7), p=0.71). Conclusions A brief stress-coping strategy moderately decreased perceived stress without significantly affecting performance in a simulated CPR. Further studies should investigate more intense interventions for reducing stress.

Perceived malleability of self versus the world and its impact on youths’ control orientation and well-being in the US, Germany, and India

Primary control is defined as changing the world to fit the self, while secondary control is defined as changing the self to fit the world. To understand why different individuals prefer different kinds of control processes, we proposed a research project looking at US, German and Indian young adults. We hypothesize that theories of self and the world (fixed vs. malleable; Dweck, 1999) affect the prevailing mode of control used. Furthermore, adolescents’ cultural background is assumed to affect their self-world theories as well as the adaptiveness of specific modes of control. For example, in the US, where the self is tended to be seen as fixed and the world as malleable, primary control prevails and is more adaptive than secondary control while the reverse is expected for India. We present the theoretical outline and methodology of the study as well as first results.

Gender Stereotypes and Gendered Vocational Aspirations among Secondary School Students

Research Topic/Aim: Horizontal gender inequalities appear to be rather stable, with girls more often choosing ‘female' service professions, and boys choosing career paths related to science, technology, engineering or mathematics, since measures to bring more women into typical ‘male' jobs and more men into typical ‘female' jobs did not turn out to be sustainable. This paper focuses on gender stereotypes, namely non-egalitarian patriarchal gender-role orientations and gender associations of the school subjects German and mathematics. Dealing with and abolishing such gender stereotypes may be key strategy to reach sustainability regarding more equal vocational choices. Thus, gender stereotypes will be theorised and empirically analysed as a major predictor of gender-typical vocational perspectives considering interest in these school subjects as a mediating factor. Furthermore, we focus on structural patriarchy as a root of gender-role orientations, and teacher gender regarding its impact on gendered images of subjects. Theoretical and methodology framework: Our analyses of gender segregation in vocational aspirations and vocational choice center on Gottfredson's (2002; Gottfredson and Becker, 1981) Theory of Circumscription, Compromise and Self-Creation. One of the main assumptions of this theory is that people associate jobs with particular sexes and those jobs that do not fit particular gender roles are not considered. Empirical analyses are based on survey data of eighth-graders in the Swiss canton of Bern (N = 672). Structural Equation Models (SEM) for male and female students are estimated. Conclusions/Findings: Results reveal different patterns for boys and girls; for boys, gender-typical (male) vocational perspective could be explained via gender role orientations, interest in mathematics and gender associations of the school subjects, for girls, the factors under consideration could be empirically linked to ‘atypical vocational perspective'. Relevance to Nordic educational research: The study focuses on gender relations in society and how they are reproduced. Gender segregation in vocational choice and at the labour market is a universal issue - affecting both egalitarian and non-egalitarian gender regimes in similar ways. Although in general Northern countries appear to be more equal regarding gender inequality, gender segregation is rather persistent (Jarman, Blackburn and Brooks, 2012) and therefore remains a relevant topic.

Secondary Prevention of HIV Infection: The Current State of Prevention for Positives

There remains much to be done to understand why, when, and under what conditions PLWH practice risk. substantial work also needs to be performed to design, implement, rigorously evaluate, and when effective, to disseminate widely, additional, evidencebased PfP interventions targeting diverse populations. Directing such interventions to populations of PLWH at greatest risk for transmission of HIV has the potential to yield significant impact on the pandemic.

Impact of oral contraceptives on weight, body composition, and cardiovascular disease risk factors in women age 18--30 years participating in a 15-week exercise program

Objective. To assess differences in body weight, body composition, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and blood glucose between OC users and non-users age 18-30 y before and after a 15-week cardiovascular exercise program in Houston, TX from 2003 to 2007.^ Study Design. Secondary analysis of prospective data. ^ Study Subjects. 453 Non-Hispanic white (NHW), Hispanic, and African American (AA) women age 18-30 y with no previous live birth, a history of menstruating, no use of other hormonal contraceptives or medications, no menopause or hysterectomy, and no current pregnancies.^ Measurements. Demographic data, medication use, and menstrual history were assessed via self-administered questionnaires at baseline. Anthropometric and laboratory measures were taken at baseline and 15-weeks. ^ Data Analysis. Linear regression assessed the association between OC use and study variables at baseline, and the change in study variables from baseline to 15-weeks. Logistic regression assessed the association between OC use and CVD risk. Each analysis was also stratified by race/ethnicity. ^ Results. At baseline, OC users had higher total cholesterol (p<.0005) and were above cholesterol risk cut points for CVD (OR=4.3, 95% CI=2.4-7.7) compared to non-users. At baseline, OC use was also associated with higher diastolic blood pressure (p=.018) compared to non-users, primarily in non-Hispanic whites (p=.007). OC use was associated with lower blood glucose compared to non-users in Hispanics only (p=.008). OC use was associated with absolute change in diastolic blood pressure (p=.044) and total cholesterol (p=.003). There was evidence that OC use may affect individuals differently based on race/ethnicity for certain obesity and CVD risk factors.^ Conclusions. OC users and non-users responded similarly to a 15-week cardiovascular exercise program. Exceptions included a greater change in diastolic blood pressure and total cholesterol among NHW and Hispanic OC users compared to non-users after exercise intervention. At baseline, OC use was associated with diastolic blood pressure and was most strongly associated with increased levels of total cholesterol. OC users were at greater risk of having total cholesterol above CVD risk cut points than non-users.^

Proton therapy versus intensity modulated x-ray therapy in the treatment of prostate cancer: Estimating secondary cancer risks

External beam radiation therapy is used to treat nearly half of the more than 200,000 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the United States each year. During a radiation therapy treatment, healthy tissues in the path of the therapeutic beam are exposed to high doses. In addition, the whole body is exposed to a low-dose bath of unwanted scatter radiation from the pelvis and leakage radiation from the treatment unit. As a result, survivors of radiation therapy for prostate cancer face an elevated risk of developing a radiogenic second cancer. Recently, proton therapy has been shown to reduce the dose delivered by the therapeutic beam to normal tissues during treatment compared to intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT, the current standard of care). However, the magnitude of stray radiation doses from proton therapy, and their impact on this incidence of radiogenic second cancers, was not known. ^ The risk of a radiogenic second cancer following proton therapy for prostate cancer relative to IMXT was determined for 3 patients of large, median, and small anatomical stature. Doses delivered to healthy tissues from the therapeutic beam were obtained from treatment planning system calculations. Stray doses from IMXT were taken from the literature, while stray doses from proton therapy were simulated using a Monte Carlo model of a passive scattering treatment unit and an anthropomorphic phantom. Baseline risk models were taken from the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to characterize the uncertainty of risk calculations to uncertainties in the risk model, the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons for carcinogenesis, and inter-patient anatomical variations. ^ The risk projections revealed that proton therapy carries a lower risk for radiogenic second cancer incidence following prostate irradiation compared to IMXT. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the results of the risk analysis depended only weakly on uncertainties in the risk model and inter-patient variations. Second cancer risks were sensitive to changes in the RBE of neutrons. However, the findings of the study were qualitatively consistent for all patient sizes and risk models considered, and for all neutron RBE values less than 100. ^