The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil

We investigated the seasonal patterns of water vapor and sensible heat flux along a tropical biome gradient from forest to savanna. We analyzed data from a network of flux towers in Brazil that were operated within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). These tower sites included tropical humid and semideciduous forest, transitional forest, floodplain (with physiognomies of cerrado), and cerrado sensu stricto. The mean annual sensible heat flux at all sites ranged from 20 to 38 Wm(-2), and was generally reduced in the wet season and increased in the late dry season, coincident with seasonal variations of net radiation and soil moisture. The sites were easily divisible into two functional groups based on the seasonality of evaporation: tropical forest and savanna. At sites with an annual precipitation above 1900 mm and a dry season length less than 4 months (Manaus, Santarem and Rondonia), evaporation rates increased in the dry season, coincident with increased radiation. Evaporation rates were as high as 4.0 mm d(-1) in these evergreen or semidecidous forests. In contrast, ecosystems with precipitation less than 1700 mm and a longer dry season (Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Sao Paulo) showed clear evidence of reduced evaporation in the dry season. Evaporation rates were as low as 2.5 mm d(-1) in the transitional forests and 1 mm d(-1) in the cerrado. The controls on evapotranspiration seasonality changed along the biome gradient, with evaporative demand (especially net radiation) playing a more important role in the wetter forests, and soil moisture playing a more important role in the drier savannah sites.

Comparison Of Demand Pattern Calibration In Water Distribution Networks With Geographic And Non-Geographic Parameterization

Demands are one of the most uncertain parameters in a water distribution network model. A good calibration of the model demands leads to better solutions when using the model for any purpose. A demand pattern calibration methodology that uses a priori information has been developed for calibrating the behaviour of demand groups. Generally, the behaviours of demands in cities are mixed all over the network, contrary to smaller villages where demands are clearly sectorised in residential neighbourhoods, commercial zones and industrial sectors. Demand pattern calibration has a final use for leakage detection and isolation. Detecting a leakage in a pattern that covers nodes spread all over the network makes the isolation unfeasible. Besides, demands in the same zone may be more similar due to the common pressure of the area rather than for the type of contract. For this reason, the demand pattern calibration methodology is applied to a real network with synthetic non-geographic demands for calibrating geographic demand patterns. The results are compared with a previous work where the calibrated patterns were also non-geographic.

Diurnal and seasonal variations of CWSI and non-water-stressed baseline with nectarine trees

The work described was part of the programme, Innovative biological indicators to improve the efficiency of water and nitrogen use and the fruit quality in tree crops Project, a partnership between ISA and INRA. Field studies were conducted in Portugal on different irrigated plots of nectarine trees; a fully irrigated (unstressed plot) and a plot that was not irrigated for some days (stressed plot). The aim of this work was to investigate the effects of plant water stress on canopy temperature, to determine the nonwater-stressed baseline and to observe diurnal and seasonal variations of Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI). Canopy temperature, psychrometric and wind speed data were taken each half-hour, between 9:30 and 15:30 h. Results showed that canopy temperature was higher during the daytime, for both unstressed and stressed plots. A linear regression of canopy-air temperature differential and the vapor pressure deficit (non-water-stress baseline) showed a r2= 0.65. During the stress period, the average canopy temperature of the stressed plot was up to 5.4°C higher than the unstressed plot. Diurnal and seasonal average of CWSI values showed differences between unstressed and stressed plots, during the stress period.

An hydrochemical answer to a legislative demand involving health risk related to water quality

Effluents and surface waters around an area involved with the inking of tissues at Itatiba municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically analyzed with the purpose of evaluating the influence on the water quality of the chemicals released, as well to provide answers to legislative requirements related to the São Paulo State Register 997 published on 31 May 1976.

Performance of constructed wetland system for public water supply

The project is being conducted in the town of Analândia, São Paulo, Brazil. The constructed wetlands system for water supply consists of a channel with floating aquatic macrophytes, HDS system (Water Decontamination with Soil - Patent PI 850.3030), chlorinating system, filtering system and distribution. The project objectives include investigating the process variables to further optimize design and operation factors, evaluating the relation of nutrients and plants development, biomass production, shoot development, nutrient cycling and total and fecal coliforms removal, comparing the treatment efficiency among the seasons of the year; and moreover to compare the average values obtained between February and June 1998 (Salati et al., 1998) with the average obtained for the same parameters between March and June 2000. Studies have been developed in order to verify during one year the drinking quality of the water for the following parameters: turbidity, color, pH, dissolved oxygen, total of dissolved solids, COD, chloride, among others, according to the Ministry of Health's Regulation 36. This system of water supply projected to treat 15 L s-1 has been in continuous operation for 2 years, it was implemented with support of the National Environment Fund (FNMA), administered by the Center of Environmental Studies (CEA-UNESP), while the technical supervision and design were performed by the Institute of Applied Ecology. The actual research project is being supported by FAPESP.

Seasonal effects of wastewater to the water quality of the Caeté river estuary, Brazilian Amazon

A situação socioeconômica de Bragança depende principalmente dos recursos biológicos estuarinos e marinhos, que são influenciados pelos ciclos de marés e climatologia. Coletas oceanográficas (com medidas de variáveis hidrológicas, hidro-dinâmicas e microbiológicas) foram realizadas na área mais urbanizada do estuário do Caeté, para caracterizar a qualidade das águas no setor estudado. Durante o período seco, o estuário foi mais eutrófico e apresentou os maiores valores de temperatura (30,5°C em Out./06), salinidade (17 psu em Fev./07), pH (8,24 em Fev./07) e coliformes fecais (>1000 MNP/ 100 ml em Dez./06 e Fev./07). As espécies fitoplanctô-nicas Cyclotella meneghiniana, Coscinodiscus centralis e outras espécies r-estrategistas também foram observadas. A falta de saneamento básico foi responsável pela contaminação local, especialmente durante o período seco, quando o esgoto foi lançado mais concentrado no estuário, mostrando a influência humana na redução da qualidade da água estuarina estudada. A pesca é considerada uma das principais atividades econômicas do município de Bragança e, portanto, esta contaminação poderá afetar negativamente a qualidade ambiental deste ecossistema amazônico.

Seasonal effects on the relationship between photosynthesis and leaf carbohydrates in orange trees

To understand the effect of summer and winter on the relationships between leaf carbohydrate and photosynthesis in citrus trees growing in subtropical conditions, 'Valencia' orange trees were subjected to external manipulation of their carbohydrate concentration by exposing them to darkness and evaluating the maximal photosynthetic capacity. In addition, the relationships between carbohydrate and photosynthesis in the citrus leaves were studied under natural conditions. Exposing the leaves to dark conditions decreased the carbohydrate concentration and increased photosynthesis in both seasons, which is in accordance with the current model of carbohydrate regulation. Significant negative correlations were found between total non-structural carbohydrates and photosynthesis in both seasons. However, non-reducing sugars were the most important carbohydrate that apparently regulated photosynthesis on a typical summer day, whereas starch was important on a typical winter day. As a novelty, photosynthesis stimulation by carbohydrate consumption was approximately three times higher during the summer, i.e. the growing season. Under subtropical conditions, citrus leaves exhibited relatively high photosynthesis and high carbohydrate levels on the summer day, as well as a high nocturnal consumption of starch and soluble sugars. A positive association was determined between photosynthesis and photoassimilate consumption/exportation, even in leaves showing a high carbohydrate concentration. This paper provides evidence that photosynthesis in citrus leaves is regulated by an increase in sink demand rather than by the absolute carbohydrate concentration in leaves.

Seasonal Distribution of Airborne Trace Elements and Water-Soluble Ions in Sao Paulo Megacity, Brazil

This study deals with the seasonal distribution of Al, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Na, Pb and Zn and water soluble ions (Cl-, PO43-, NO3-, SO42-, HCOO-, CH3COO-, oxalate, succinate, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+) found in PM10 samples (particulate matter less than 10 mu m in diameter) Sao Paulo City, Brazil, (April 2003-May 2004). Higher atmospheric levels were found for SO42-, NO3-, Cl- and PO43- while the main organic anions were oxalate and formate. Atmospheric levels for elements were: Fe > Al > Ca > K > Na > Mg > Zn > Cu > Pb. Some sources were predominant for some species: (i) fuel burning and/or biomass burning (NO3-, HCOO-, C2O42-, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Fe, Pb, Zn, Al, Ca, K and Mg), (ii) gas-to-particle conversion (SO42- and NH4+) and (iii) sea salt spray (Cl-, Na+ and Na).

Seasonal distribution of airborne trace elements and water-soluble ions in São Paulo Megacity, Brazil

This study deals with the seasonal distribution of Al, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Na, Pb and Zn and water soluble ions (Cl-, PO4(3-), NO3-, SO4(2-), HCOO-, CH3COO-, oxalate, succinate, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+) found in PM10 samples (particulate matter less than 10 mm in diameter) São Paulo City, Brazil, (April 2003-May 2004). Higher atmospheric levels were found for SO4(2-), NO3-, Cl- and PO4(3-) while the main organic anions were oxalate and formate. Atmospheric levels for elements were: Fe > Al > Ca > K > Na > Mg > Zn > Cu > Pb. Some sources were predominant for some species: (i) fuel burning and/or biomass burning (NO3-, HCOO-, C2O4(2-), K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Fe, Pb, Zn, Al, Ca, K and Mg), (ii) gas-to-particle conversion (SO4(2-) and NH4+) and (iii) sea salt spray (Cl-, Na+ and Na).

Dry spell mitigation to upgrade semi-arid rainfed agriculture : Water harvesting and soil nutrient management for smallholder maize cultivation in Machakos, Kenya

Improvements in on-farm water and soil fertility management through water harvesting may prove key to up-grade smallholder farming systems in dry sub-humid and semi-arid sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The currently experienced yield levels are usually less than 1 t ha-1, i.e., 3-5 times lower than potential levels obtained by commercial farmers and researchers for similar agro-hydrological conditions. The low yield levels are ascribed to the poor crop water availability due to variable rainfall, losses in on-farm water balance and inherently low soil nutrient levels. To meet an increased food demand with less use of water and land in the region, requires farming systems that provide more yields per water unit and/or land area in the future. This thesis presents the results of a project on water harvesting system aiming to upgrade currently practised water management for maize (Zea mays, L.) in semi-arid SSA. The objectives were to a) quantify dry spell occurrence and potential impact in currently practised small-holder grain production systems, b) test agro-hydrological viability and compare maize yields in an on-farm experiment using combinations supplemental irrigation (SI) and fertilizers for maize, and c) estimate long-term changes in water balance and grain yields of a system with SI compared to farmers currently practised in-situ water harvesting. Water balance changes and crop growth were simulated in a 20-year perspective with models MAIZE1&2. Dry spell analyses showed that potentially yield-limiting dry spells occur at least 75% of seasons for 2 locations in semi-arid East Africa during a 20-year period. Dry spell occurrence was more frequent for crop cultivated on soil with low water-holding capacity than on high water-holding capacity. The analysis indicated large on-farm water losses as deep percolation and run-off during seasons despite seasonal crop water deficits. An on-farm experiment was set up during 1998-2001 in Machakos district, semi-arid Kenya. Surface run-off was collected and stored in a 300m3 earth dam. Gravity-fed supplemental irrigation was carried out to a maize field downstream of the dam. Combinations of no irrigation (NI), SI and 3 levels of N fertilizers (0, 30, 80 kg N ha-1) were applied. Over 5 seasons with rainfall ranging from 200 to 550 mm, the crop with SI and low nitrogen fertilizer gave 40% higher yields (**) than the farmers’ conventional in-situ water harvesting system. Adding only SI or only low nitrogen did not result in significantly different yields. Accounting for actual ability of a storage system and SI to mitigate dry spells, it was estimated that a farmer would make economic returns (after deduction of household consumption) between year 2-7 after investment in dam construction depending on dam sealant and labour cost used. Simulating maize growth and site water balance in a system of maize with SI increased annual grain yield with 35 % as a result of timely applications of SI. Field water balance changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and deep percolation were insignificant with SI, although the absolute amount of ETa increased with 30 mm y-1 for crop with SI compared to NI. The dam water balance showed 30% productive outtake as SI of harvested water. Large losses due to seepage and spill-flow occurred from the dam. Water productivity (WP, of ETa) for maize with SI was on average 1 796 m3 per ton grain, and for maize without SI 2 254 m3 per ton grain, i.e, a decerase of WP with 25%. The water harvesting system for supplemental irrigation of maize was shown to be both biophysically and economically viable. However, adoption by farmers will depend on other factors, including investment capacity, know-how and legislative possibilities. Viability of increased water harvesting implementation in a catchment scale needs to be assessed so that other down-stream uses of water remains uncompromised.

Geophysical Analysis of Seasonal Montandon Gravel Ridge Water Table Fluctuation and Moisture Gradient Variation due to Storm Events

The purpose of this research project is to continue exploring the Montandon Long-Term Hydrologic Research Site(LTHR) by using multiple geophysical methods to obtain more accurate and precise information regarding subsurface hydrologic properties of a local gravel ridge,which are important to both the health of surrounding ecosystems and local agriculture. Through using non-invasive geophysical methods such as seismic refraction, Direct Current resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) instead of invasive methods such as boreholedrilling which displace sediment and may alter water flow, data collection is less likely to bias the data itself. In addition to imaging the gravel ridge subsurface, another important researchpurpose is to observe how both water table elevation and the moisture gradient (moisture content of the unsaturated zone) change over a seasonal time period and directly after storm events. The combination of three types of data collection allows the strengths of each method combine together and provide a relatively strongly supported conclusions compared to previous research. Precipitation and geophysical data suggest that an overall increase in precipitation during the summer months causes a sharp decrease in subsurface resistivity within the unsaturated zone. GPR velocity data indicate significant immediate increase in moisture content within the shallow vadose zone (< 1m), suggesting that rain water was infiltrating into the shallow subsurface. Furthermore, the combination of resistivity and GPR results suggest that the decreased resistivity within the shallow layers is due to increased ion content within groundwater. This is unexpected as rainwater is assumed to have a DC resistivity value of 3.33*105 ohm-m. These results may suggest that ions within the sediment must beincorporated into the infiltrating water.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

Seasonal Variation in the Capacity for Plant Trait Measures to Predict Grassland Carbon and Water Fluxes

There is a need for accurate predictions of ecosystem carbon (C) and water fluxes in field conditions. Previous research has shown that ecosystem properties can be predicted from community abundance-weighted means (CWM) of plant functional traits and measures of trait variability within a community (FDvar). The capacity for traits to predict carbon (C) and water fluxes, and the seasonal dependency of these trait-function relationships has not been fully explored. Here we measured daytime C and water fluxes over four seasons in grasslands of a range of successional ages in southern England. In a model selection procedure, we related these fluxes to environmental covariates and plant biomass measures before adding CWM and FDvar plant trait measures that were scaled up from measures of individual plants grown in greenhouse conditions. Models describing fluxes in periods of low biological activity contained few predictors, which were usually abiotic factors. In more biologically active periods, models contained more predictors, including plant trait measures. Field-based plant biomass measures were generally better predictors of fluxes than CWM and FDvar traits. However, when these measures were used in combination traits accounted for additional variation. Where traits were significant predictors their identity often reflected seasonal vegetation dynamics. These results suggest that database derived trait measures can improve the prediction of ecosystem C and water fluxes. Controlled studies and those involving more detailed flux measurements are required to validate and explore these findings, a worthwhile effort given the potential for using simple vegetation measures to help predict landscape-scale fluxes.

Mass transport around comets and its impact on the seasonal differences in water production rates

Comets are surrounded by a thin expanding atmosphere, and although the nucleus' gravity is small, some molecules and grains, possibly with the inclusion of ices, can get transported around the nucleus through scattering (atoms/molecules) and gravitational pull (grains). Based on the obliquity of the comet, it is also possible that volatile material and icy grains get trapped in regions, which are in shadow until the comet passes its equinox. When the Sun rises above the horizon and the surface starts to heat up, this condensed material starts to desorb and icy grains will sublimate off the surface, possibly increasing the comet's neutral gas production rate on the outbound path. In this paper we investigate the mass transport around the nucleus, and based on a simplified model, we derive the possible contribution to the asymmetry in the seasonal gas production rate that could arise from trapped material released from cold areas once they come into sunlight. We conclude that the total amount of volatiles retained by this effect can only contribute up to a few percent of the asymmetry observed in some comets.