Long distance dispersal shaped patterns of human genetic diversity in Eurasia

Most previous attempts at reconstructing the past history of human populations did not explicitly take geography into account, or considered very simple scenarios of migration and ignored environmental information. However, it is likely that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) affected the demography and the range of many species, including our own. Moreover, long-distance dispersal (LDD) may have been an important component of human migrations, allowing fast colonization of new territories and preserving high levels of genetic diversity. Here, we use a high-quality microsatellite dataset genotyped in 22 populations to estimate the posterior probabilities of several scenarios for the settlement of the Old World by modern humans. We considered models ranging from a simple spatial expansion to others including LDD and a LGM-induced range contraction, as well as Neolithic demographic expansions. We find that scenarios with LDD are much better supported by data than models without LDD. Nevertheless, we show evidence that LDD events to empty habitats were strongly prevented during the settlement of Eurasia. This unexpected absence of LDD ahead of the colonization wave front could have been caused by an Allee effect, either due to intrinsic causes such as an inbreeding depression built during the expansion, or to extrinsic causes such as direct competition with archaic humans. Overall, our results suggest only a relatively limited effect of the LGM-contraction on current patterns of human diversity. This is in clear contrast with the major role of LDD migrations, which have potentially contributed to the intermingled genetic structure of Eurasian populations.

Perspectives on the 2014 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on Myocardial Revascularization: Fifty Years of Revascularization: Where Are We and Where Are We Heading?

The joint European Society of Cardiology and European Association of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (ESC/EACTS) guidelines on myocardial revascularization collect and summarize the evidence regarding decision-making, diagnostics, and therapeutics in various clinical scenarios of coronary artery disease, including elective, urgent, and emergency settings. The 2014 document updates and extends the effort started in 2010, year of the first edition of these guidelines. Importantly, this latest edition provides a systematic review of all randomized clinical trials performed since 1980, comparing different strategies of myocardial revascularization, including coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), balloon angioplasty, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare-metal stents (BMS) and first- and second-generation drug-eluting stents (DES). This review aims to highlight the most relevant novelties introduced by the 2014 edition of the ESC/EACTS myocardial revascularization guidelines as compared with the previous edition and to describe similarities and differences with the American societies' guidelines.

Fine control of drug delivery for cochlear implant applications

Cochlear implants are neuroprostheses that are inserted into the inner ear to directly electrically stimulate the auditory nerve, thus replacing lost cochlear receptors, the hair cells. The reduction of the gap between electrodes and nerve cells will contribute to technological solutions simultaneously increasing the frequency resolution, the sound quality and the amplification of the signal. Recent findings indicate that neurotrophins (NTs) such as brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) stimulate the neurite outgrowth of auditory nerve cells by activating Trk receptors on the cellular surface (1–3). Furthermore, small-size TrkB receptor agonists such as di-hydroxyflavone (DHF) are now available, which activate the TrkB receptor with similar efficiency as BDNF, but are much more stable (4). Experimentally, such molecules are currently used to attract nerve cells towards, for example, the electrodes of cochlear implants. This paper analyses the scenarios of low dose aspects of controlled release of small-size Trk receptor agonists from the coated CI electrode array into the inner ear. The control must first ensure a sufficient dose for the onset of neurite growth. Secondly, a gradient in concentration needs to be maintained to allow directive growth of neurites through the perilymph-filled gap towards the electrodes of the implant. We used fluorescein as a test molecule for its molecular size similarity to DHF and investigated two different transport mechanisms of drug dispensing, which both have the potential to fulfil controlled low-throughput drug-deliverable requirements. The first is based on the release of aqueous fluorescein into water through well-defined 60-μm size holes arrays in a membrane by pure osmosis. The release was both simulated using the software COMSOL and observed experimentally. In the second approach, solid fluorescein crystals were encapsulated in a thin layer of parylene (PPX), hence creating random nanometer-sized pinholes. In this approach, the release occurred due to subsequent water diffusion through the pinholes, dissolution of the fluorescein and then release by out-diffusion. Surprisingly, the release rate of solid fluorescein through the nanoscopic scale holes was found to be in the same order of magnitude as for liquid fluorescein release through microscopic holes.

Monte-Carlo simulation of Callisto's exosphere

We model Callisto's exosphere based on its ice as well as non-ice surface via the use of a Monte-Carlo exosphere model. For the ice component we implement two putative compositions that have been computed from two possible extreme formation scenarios of the satellite. One composition represents the oxidizing state and is based on the assumption that the building blocks of Callisto were formed in the protosolar nebula and the other represents the reducing state of the gas, based on the assumption that the satellite accreted from solids condensed in the jovian sub-nebula. For the non-ice component we implemented the compositions of typical CI as well as L type chondrites. Both chondrite types have been suggested to represent Callisto's non-ice composition best. As release processes we consider surface sublimation, ion sputtering and photon-stimulated desorption. Particles are followed on their individual trajectories until they either escape Callisto's gravitational attraction, return to the surface, are ionized, or are fragmented. Our density profiles show that whereas the sublimated species dominate close to the surface on the sun-lit side, their density profiles (with the exception of H and H-2) decrease much more rapidly than the sputtered particles. The Neutral gas and Ion Mass (NIM) spectrometer, which is part of the Particle Environment Package (PEP), will investigate Callisto's exosphere during the JUICE mission. Our simulations show that NIM will be able to detect sublimated and sputtered particles from both the ice and non-ice surface. NIM's measured chemical composition will allow us to distinguish between different formation scenarios. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A simulation study of the standard design, the rolling six design, the CRM, and the modified CRM in Phase I clinical trials

The Phase I clinical trial is considered the "first in human" study in medical research to examine the toxicity of a new agent. It determines the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of a new agent, i.e., the highest dose in which toxicity is still acceptable. Several phase I clinical trial designs have been proposed in the past 30 years. The well known standard method, so called the 3+3 design, is widely accepted by clinicians since it is the easiest to implement and it does not need a statistical calculation. Continual reassessment method (CRM), a design uses Bayesian method, has been rising in popularity in the last two decades. Several variants of the CRM design have also been suggested in numerous statistical literatures. Rolling six is a new method introduced in pediatric oncology in 2008, which claims to shorten the trial duration as compared to the 3+3 design. The goal of the present research was to simulate clinical trials and compare these phase I clinical trial designs. Patient population was created by discrete event simulation (DES) method. The characteristics of the patients were generated by several distributions with the parameters derived from a historical phase I clinical trial data review. Patients were then selected and enrolled in clinical trials, each of which uses the 3+3 design, the rolling six, or the CRM design. Five scenarios of dose-toxicity relationship were used to compare the performance of the phase I clinical trial designs. One thousand trials were simulated per phase I clinical trial design per dose-toxicity scenario. The results showed the rolling six design was not superior to the 3+3 design in terms of trial duration. The time to trial completion was comparable between the rolling six and the 3+3 design. However, they both shorten the duration as compared to the two CRM designs. Both CRMs were superior to the 3+3 design and the rolling six in accuracy of MTD estimation. The 3+3 design and rolling six tended to assign more patients to undesired lower dose levels. The toxicities were slightly greater in the CRMs.^

High-resolution marine record of sediment core MD99-2343 in the Balearic Sea

The IMAGES core MD99-2343, recovered from a sediment drift north of the island of Minorca, in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, holds a high-resolution sequence that is perfectly suited to study the oscillations of the overturning system of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). Detailed analysis of grain-size and bulk geochemical composition reveals the sensitivity of this region to climate changes at both orbital and centennial-millennial temporal scales during the last 50 kyr. The dominant orbital pattern in the K/Al record indicates that sediment supply to the basin was controlled by the insolation evolution at 40°N, which forced changes in the fluvial regime, with more efficient sediment transport during insolation maxima. This orbital control also modulated the long-term pattern of the WMDW intensity as illustrated by the silt/clay ratio. However, deep convection was particularly sensitive to climatic changes at shorter time-scales, i.e. to centennial-millennial glacial and Holocene oscillations that are well documented by all the paleocurrent intensity proxies (Si/Al, Ti/Al and silt/clay ratios). Benthic isotopic records (d13C and d18O) show a Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) pattern of variability of WMDW properties, which can be associated with changing intensities of the deep currents system. The most prominent reduction on the WMDW overturning was caused by the post-glacial sea level rise. Three main scenarios of WMDW overturning are revealed: a strong mode during D-O Stadials, a weak mode during D-O Interstadials and an intermediate mode during cooling transitions. In addition, D-O Stadials associated with Heinrich events (HEs) have a very distinct signature as the strong mode of circulation, typical for the other D-O Stadials, was never reached during HE due to the surface freshening induced by the inflowing polar waters. Consequently, the WMDW overturning system oscillated around the intermediate mode of circulation during HE. Though surface conditions were more stable during the Holocene, the WMDW overturning cell still reacted synchronously to short-lived events, as shown by increments in the planktonic d18O record, triggering quick reinforcements of the deep water circulation. Overall, these results highlight the sensitivity of the WMDW to rapid climate change which in the recent past were likely induced by oceanographic and atmospheric reorganizations in the North Atlantic region.

Relative sensitivity of soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna to increased CO2 and experimental stress

We used a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment to test hypotheses about changes in diversity, composition and structure of soft-bottom intertidal macrobenthic assemblages, under realistic and locally relevant scenarios of seawater acidification. Patches of undisturbed sediment were collected from 2 types of intertidal sedimentary habitat in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South Portugal) and exposed to 2 levels of seawater acidification (pH reduced by 0.3 and 0.6 units) and 1 unmanipulated (control) level. After 75 d the assemblages differed significantly between the 2 types of sediment and between field controls and the ex situ treatments, but not among the 3 pH levels tested. The naturally high values of total alkalinity buffered seawater from the changes imposed on carbonate chemistry and may have contributed to offsetting acidification at the local scale. Observed differences on biota were strongly related to the organic matter content and grain-size of the sediments, particularly to the fractions of medium and coarse sand. Soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna was significantly affected by the stress of being held in an artificial environment, but not by CO2-induced seawater acidification. Given the previously observed variations in the sensitivities of marine organisms to seawater acidification, direct extrapolations of the present findings to different regions or other types of assemblages do not seem advisable. However, the contribution of ex situ studies to the assessment of ecosystem-level responses to environmental disturbances could generally be improved by incorporating adequate field controls in the experimental design.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, calcification rate, oxygen production, maximum quantum yield, symbiont density, chlorophyll concentration and crystal width of Halimeda macroloba, Halimeda cylindracea and Marginopora vertebralis during experiments, 2011

The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis and calcification in the calcifying algae Halimeda macroloba and Halimeda cylindracea and the symbiont-bearing benthic foraminifera Marginopora vertebralis were investigated through exposure to a combination of four temperatures (28°C, 30°C, 32°C, and 34°C) and four CO2 levels (39, 61, 101, and 203 Pa; pH 8.1, 7.9, 7.7, and 7.4, respectively). Elevated CO2 caused a profound decline in photosynthetic efficiency (FV : FM), calcification, and growth in all species. After five weeks at 34°C under all CO2 levels, all species died. Chlorophyll (Chl) a and b concentration in Halimeda spp. significantly decreased in 203 Pa, 32°C and 34°C treatments, but Chl a and Chl c2 concentration in M. vertebralis was not affected by temperature alone, with significant declines in the 61, 101, and 203 Pa treatments at 28°C. Significant decreases in FV : FM in all species were found after 5 weeks of exposure to elevated CO2 (203 Pa in all temperature treatments) and temperature (32°C and 34°C in all pH treatments). The rate of oxygen production declined at 61, 101, and 203 Pa in all temperature treatments for all species. The elevated CO2 and temperature treatments greatly reduced calcification (growth and crystal size) in M. vertebralis and, to a lesser extent, in Halimeda spp. These findings indicate that 32°C and 101 Pa CO2, are the upper limits for survival of these species on Heron Island reef, and we conclude that these species will be highly vulnerable to the predicted future climate change scenarios of elevated temperature and ocean acidification.

Fossil chironomids of Lake Temje

A 380 cm long sediment core from Lake Temje (central Yakutia, Eastern Siberia) was studied to infer Holocene palaeoenvironmental change in the extreme periglacial setting of eastern Siberia during the last 10,000 years. Data on sediment composition were used to characterize changes in the depositional environment during the ontogenetic development of the Lake Temje. The analysis of fossil chironomid remains and statistical treatment of chironomid data by the application of a newly developed regional Russian transfer functions provided inferences of mean July air temperatures (T_July) and water depths (WD). Reconstructed WDs show minor changes throughout the core and range between 80 and 120 cm. All the fluctuations in reconstructed water depth lie within the mean error of prediction of the inference model (RMSEP = 0.35) so it is not possible to draw conclusions from the reconstructions. A qualitative and quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate in central Yakutia recognized three stages of palaeoenvironmental changes. The early Holocene between 10 and 8 ka BP was characterized by colder-than-today and moist summer conditions. Cryotextures in the lake sediments document full freezing of the lake water during the winter time. A general warming trend started around 8.0 ka BP in concert with enhanced biological productivity. Reconstructed mean T_July were equal or up to 1.5 °C higher than today between 6.0 ka and 5.0 ka BP. During the entire late Holocene after 4.8 ka BP, reconstructed mean T_July remained below modern value. Limnological conditions did not change significantly. The inference of a mid-Holocene climate optimum supports scenarios of Holocene climatic changes in the subpolar part of eastern Siberia and indicates climate teleconnections to the North Atlantic realm.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Porites panamensis during experiments, 2011

Survival of coral planulae, and the successful settlement and healthy growth of primary polyps are critical for the dispersal of scleractinian corals and hence the recovery of degraded coral reefs. It is therefore important to explore how the warmer and more acidic oceanic conditions predicted for the future could affect these processes. This study used controlled culture to investigate the effects of a 1 °C increase in temperature and a 0.2-0.25 unit decrease in pH on the settlement and survival of planulae and the growth of primary polyps in the Tropical Eastern Pacific coral Porites panamensis. We found that primary polyp growth was reduced only marginally by more acidic seawater but the combined effect of high temperature and lowered pH caused a significant reduction in growth of primary polyps by almost a third. Elevated temperature was found to significantly reduce the amount of zooxanthellae in primary polyps, and when combined with lowered pH resulted in a significant reduction in biomass of primary polyps. However, survival and settlement of planula larvae were unaffected by increased temperature, lowered acidity or the combination of both. These results indicate that in future scenarios of increased temperature and oceanic acidity coral planulae will be able to disperse and settle successfully but primary polyp growth may be hampered. The recovery of reefs may therefore be impeded by global change even if local stressors are curbed and sufficient sources of planulae are available.

Medication double-checking procedures in clinical practice: a cross-sectional survey of oncology nurses' experiences.

BACKGROUND Double-checking is widely recommended as an essential method to prevent medication errors. However, prior research has shown that the concept of double-checking is not clearly defined, and that little is known about actual practice in oncology, for example, what kind of checking procedures are applied. OBJECTIVE To study the practice of different double-checking procedures in chemotherapy administration and to explore nurses' experiences, for example, how often they actually find errors using a certain procedure. General evaluations regarding double-checking, for example, frequency of interruptions during and caused by a check, or what is regarded as its essential feature was assessed. METHODS In a cross-sectional survey, qualified nurses working in oncology departments of 3 hospitals were asked to rate 5 different scenarios of double-checking procedures regarding dimensions such as frequency of use in practice and appropriateness to prevent medication errors; they were also asked general questions about double-checking. RESULTS Overall, 274 nurses (70% response rate) participated in the survey. The procedure of jointly double-checking (read-read back) was most commonly used (69% of respondents) and rated as very appropriate to prevent medication errors. Jointly checking medication was seen as the essential characteristic of double-checking-more frequently than 'carrying out checks independently' (54% vs 24%). Most nurses (78%) found the frequency of double-checking in their department appropriate. Being interrupted in one's own current activity for supporting a double-check was reported to occur frequently. Regression analysis revealed a strong preference towards checks that are currently implemented at the responders' workplace. CONCLUSIONS Double-checking is well regarded by oncology nurses as a procedure to help prevent errors, with jointly checking being used most frequently. Our results show that the notion of independent checking needs to be transferred more actively into clinical practice. The high frequency of reported interruptions during and caused by double-checks is of concern.

A method to incorporate the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on multivariate analyses of ecological data

Researchers in ecology commonly use multivariate analyses (e.g. redundancy analysis, canonical correspondence analysis, Mantel correlation, multivariate analysis of variance) to interpret patterns in biological data and relate these patterns to environmental predictors. There has been, however, little recognition of the errors associated with biological data and the influence that these may have on predictions derived from ecological hypotheses. We present a permutational method that assesses the effects of taxonomic uncertainty on the multivariate analyses typically used in the analysis of ecological data. The procedure is based on iterative randomizations that randomly re-assign non identified species in each site to any of the other species found in the remaining sites. After each re-assignment of species identities, the multivariate method at stake is run and a parameter of interest is calculated. Consequently, one can estimate a range of plausible values for the parameter of interest under different scenarios of re-assigned species identities. We demonstrate the use of our approach in the calculation of two parameters with an example involving tropical tree species from western Amazonia: 1) the Mantel correlation between compositional similarity and environmental distances between pairs of sites, and; 2) the variance explained by environmental predictors in redundancy analysis (RDA). We also investigated the effects of increasing taxonomic uncertainty (i.e. number of unidentified species), and the taxonomic resolution at which morphospecies are determined (genus-resolution, family-resolution, or fully undetermined species) on the uncertainty range of these parameters. To achieve this, we performed simulations on a tree dataset from southern Mexico by randomly selecting a portion of the species contained in the dataset and classifying them as unidentified at each level of decreasing taxonomic resolution. An analysis of covariance showed that both taxonomic uncertainty and resolution significantly influence the uncertainty range of the resulting parameters. Increasing taxonomic uncertainty expands our uncertainty of the parameters estimated both in the Mantel test and RDA. The effects of increasing taxonomic resolution, however, are not as evident. The method presented in this study improves the traditional approaches to study compositional change in ecological communities by accounting for some of the uncertainty inherent to biological data. We hope that this approach can be routinely used to estimate any parameter of interest obtained from compositional data tables when faced with taxonomic uncertainty.

An example of integration between en economic and an hydrologic model in the framework of water resource management problems

Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

An empirical mixed model to quantify climate influence on the growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in South-Eastern Spain

The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area. A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger?s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger?s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5?7.5% depending on site quality.

Programmed design of ship forms

This paper describes a new category of CAD applications devoted to the definition and parameterization of hull forms, called programmed design. Programmed design relies on two prerequisites. The first one is a product model with a variety of types large enough to face the modeling of any type of ship. The second one is a design language dedicated to create the product model. The main purpose of the language is to publish the modeling algorithms of the application in the designer knowledge domain to let the designer create parametric model scripts. The programmed design is an evolution of the parametric design but it is not just parametric design. It is a tool to create parametric design tools. It provides a methodology to extract the design knowledge by abstracting a design experience in order to store and reuse it. Programmed design is related with the organizational and architectural aspects of the CAD applications but not with the development of modeling algorithms. It is built on top and relies on existing algorithms provided by a comprehensive product model. Programmed design can be useful to develop new applications, to support the evolution of existing applications or even to integrate different types of application in a single one. A three-level software architecture is proposed to make the implementation of the programmed design easier. These levels are the conceptual level based on the design language, the mathematical level based on the geometric formulation of the product model and the visual level based on the polyhedral representation of the model as required by the graphic card. Finally, some scenarios of the use of programmed design are discussed. For instance, the development of specialized parametric hull form generators for a ship type or a family of ships or the creation of palettes of hull form components to be used as parametric design patterns. Also two new processes of reverse engineering which can considerably improve the application have been detected: the creation of the mathematical level from the visual level and the creation of the conceptual level from the mathematical level. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction