California water conditions in 1995

From 1987 through 1992, California endured 6 consecutive years of drought for the second time this century. The drought was broken in most parts of the state by a wet year in 1993, in which runoff was 125 percent of average. But 1994 was again critically dry, with runoff only 40 percent of average statewide, raising fears that the drought had resumed. The "drought watch" of 1994 was finally washed out to sea by two large floods (January and March), which made 1995 one of the wettest years this century and refilled all but a couple of California's major reservoirs. This paper provides information on water conditions and flooding in 1995 and some comparisons with previous years.

Avaliaçāo preliminar do estado da exploraçāo de Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon, Boulenger 1906), em cahora bassa com base em dados históricos de captura e esforço de 1995-2000

The fishing of kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon, Boulenger 1906) on the Cahora Bassa Dam started around 1992, when considerable stocks of this species were discovered in the lake. The species is believed to have successful established in the Dam following a natural introduction through a downstream movement from Kariba dam where it was introduced in 1967/68. Fisheries statistics on the kapenta fishery have been collected since 1993 by the Ministry of Fisheries through the Provincial Offices for Fisheries Administration of Tete (SPAP - Tete) but only data from 1995 onward are available on the database of the Ministry of Fisheries and these are the data that was used for compiling the present report on which trends of fishing effort, catch and CPUE are analyzed. Catch and effort have increased with time, from a minimum of the 4 thousand metric tons for an annual fishing effort of 36 fishing rigs in 1995 to a maximum of 12 tons for a fishing effort of 135 rigs while CPUE followed a decreasing trend during the same period. Correlation analysis between catch and effort suggests that probably environmental factors may have influence on catch variation than the increase on fishing effort. Two models were applied for calculating MSY and FMSY resulting in two pairs of roof leading to two scenario of fisheries management. 10137 tons and a FMSY of 177 fishing rigs were computed using Schaefer model while 11690 tons and a FMSY of 278 were obtained using Fox model. Considering the differences between the two results and considering the fact that the two models have no differences in terms of precision and the fact that their determination coefficient are not different it is suggested, using the precautionary principle that result from Schaefer model be a adopted for fisheries management purpose.

Monitoring maternal Beta carotene and retinol consumption may decrease the incidence of neurodevelopmental disorders in offspring.

Retinoic acids (13-cis and 13-trans) are known teratogens, and their precursor is retinol, a form of vitamin A. In 1995, Rothman et al demonstrated an association between excessive vitamin A, >10,000 IU/day, during the first trimester of pregnancy and teratogenic effects, particularly in the central nervous system. However, vitamin A deficiency has long been known to be deleterious to the mother and fetus. Therefore, there may be a narrow therapeutic ratio for vitamin A during pregnancy that has not previously been fully appreciated. Neurodevelopmental disorders may not be apparent by macroscopic brain examination or imaging, and proving the existence of a behavioral teratogen is not straightforward. However, an excess of retinoic acid and some neurodevelopmental disorders are both associated with abnormalities in cerebellar morphology. Physical and chemical evidence strongly supports the notion that beta carotene crosses the placenta and is metabolized to retinol. Only very limited amounts of beta carotene are stored in fetal fat cells as evidenced by the fact that maternal fat is yellow from beta carotene, whereas non-brown neonatal fat is white. Furthermore, newborns of carotenemic mothers do not share the yellow complexion of their mothers. The excess 13-trans retinoic acid derived from metabolized beta carotene in the fetus increases the concentration of the more teratogenic 13-cis retinoic acid since the isomerization equilibrium is shifted to the left. Therefore, this paper proposes that consideration be given to monitoring all potential sources of fetal 13-cis and 13-trans retinoic acid, including nutritional supplements, dietary retinol, and beta carotene, particularly in the first trimester of pregnancy.

Emission lines of Fe X in active region spectra obtained with the Solar Extreme-ultraviolet Research Telescope and Spectrograph

Fully relativistic calculations of radiative rates and electron impact excitation cross-sections for Fe X are used to derive theoretical emission-line ratios involving transitions in the 174-366 angstrom wavelength range. A comparison of these with solar active region observations obtained during the 1989 and 1995 flights of the Solar Extreme-ultraviolet Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals generally very good agreement between theory and experiment. Several Fe X emission features are detected for the first time in SERTS spectra, while the 3s(2)3p(5) P-2(3/2)-3s(2)3p(4)(S-1)3d D-2(3/2) transition at 195.32 angstrom is identified for the first time (to our knowledge) in an astronomical source. The most useful Fe X electron density (N-e) diagnostic line ratios are assessed to be 175.27/174.53 and 175.27/177.24, which both involve lines close in wavelength and free from blends, vary by factors of 13 between N-e = 10(8) and 10(11) cm(-3), and yet show little temperature sensitivity. Should these lines not be available, then the 257.25/345.74 ratio may be employed to determine N-e, although this requires an accurate evaluation of the instrument intensity calibration over a relatively large wavelength range. However, if the weak 324.73 angstrom line of Fe X is reliably detected, the use of 324.73/345.74 or 257.25/324.73 is recommended over 257.25/345.74. Electron densities deduced from 175.27/174.53 and 175.27/177.24 for the stars Procyon and alpha Cen, using observations from the Extreme-Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) satellite, are found to be consistent and in agreement with the values of N-e determined from other diagnostic ratios in the EUVE spectra. A comparison of several theoretical extreme-ultraviolet Fe X line ratios with experimental values for a theta-pinch, for which the plasma parameters have been independently determined, reveals reasonable agreement between theory and observation, providing some independent support for the accuracy of the adopted atomic data.

Prevalence of Artemisia Species Pollinosis in Western Poland: Impact of Climate Change on Aerobiological Trends, 1995-2004

Background: Artemisia species pollen represents a major cause of allergy in Central Europe. Variations in the pollen season, the influence of climate variables and the prevalence of pollinosis to it were analyzed in Poznan, in western Poland between 1995 and 2004. Methods: A Hirst volumetric spore trap was used for atmospheric sampling. Pollination date trend analysis and Spearman correlation tests were performed. Skin prick tests (SPT) and allergen specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E antibody measurements were performed in 676 and 524 patients, respectively. Results: The Artemisia species pollen season grew longer due to a clear advance in the starting day and only a slightly earlier end point; the peak day also came slightly earlier. Rainfall in the fi rst fortnight of July highly influenced pollen season severity. Temperature was directly correlated with daily Artemisia species pollen levels; relative humidity was inversely correlated. Twelve percent of patients had a positive SPT reaction to Artemisia species. Their symptoms were rhinitis and conjunctivitis (15%), atopic dermatitis (15%), chronic urticaria (14.3%), bronchial asthma (2.4%), and facial and disseminated dermatitis (1.3%). Elevated specifi c IgE concentrations were detected in the sera of 10.1% of patients. Conclusions: Artemisia species pollen is an important cause of pollinosis in western Poland. Pollen season intensity is highly influenced by rainfall in the previous weeks. Trends towards earlier season starts and longer duration, possibly caused by climate change, may have an impact on the allergic population.

Análisis de la configuración del movimiento Madres de Plaza de Mayo en relación con el proceso de democratización política en Argentina (1983-1995)

El análisis de este trabajo se concentra en la caracterización del movimiento argentino Madres de Plaza de Mayo, visto a través de un cambio de contexto político determinante para la sociedad de este país; tomando como referencia el espacio temporal comprendido entre 1983-1995. El año del que parte este estudio, marca el tránsito del Proceso de Reorganización Nacional hacia las elecciones democráticas del 30 de octubre de 1983; por su parte, el límite lo determina el segundo gobierno democrático post dictadura, debido a que mediante el estudio de las decisiones políticas que se tomaron tanto en el gobierno de Raúl Alfonsín como en el de Carlos Menem se podrá apreciar las repercusiones de estas decisiones sobre la composición, la ideología y accionar del movimiento.

La evolución del concepto de la Seguridad Humana: argumentos a favor y en contra acerca de las intervenciones humanitarias. Ilustración en el caso del campo de refugiados de Srebrenica en 1995

Esta disertación busca analizar y contrastar los argumentos sobre una posible intervención en el campo de refugiados de Srebrenica en 1995 bajo el concepto de Seguridad Humana.

Fertility and schooling : how this relation changed between 1995 and 2005 in Colombia

En este trabajo se pretende evaluar la existencia de cambios en la relación entre fecundidad y escolaridad en Colombia para mujeres de 30 a 40 años de edad entre 1995 y 2005. Para tal efecto se utilizan modelos de Poisson sobre la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud 1995 y 2005. Se encuentra una reducción en la fecundidad durante el periodo y su relación inversa con la escolaridad, que puede ser explicada por el efecto de la educación sobre otras variables como el incremento en el conocimiento sobre los programas de control natal. Se encuentra además que el efecto de culminar un nivel educativo sobre la fecundidad es mayor en 2005 que en 1995. De otro lado, se encuentra que las diferencias entre zonas urbanas y rurales son significativas en la explicación de la fecundidad en Colombia durante la última década.

Lava production at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: 1995-2009

[1] We estimate that about 1 km3 of andesitic lava has been produced at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 2009. There were three major episodes of extrusion, each lasting about 2 to 3.5 years and producing about 280 to 340 M m3 of lava, and one minor episode. Our estimates account for the dense rock equivalent volumetric contributions from the core and talus components of the lava dome, pyroclastic flow deposits and air-fall deposits. By 2005 at least two thirds of the erupted mass has already entered the sea. The average lava flux across the major extrusion episodes has been 3–5 m3s−1, with short-period (10–15 days) pulses up to 10–20 m3s−1. The first and third episodes of extrusion show similar flux histories suggesting similar behaviour of the system ten years apart. Waning flux towards the end of each episode may be caused by declining overpressure in the magma reservoir.

UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995-2001

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc-tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

Estrutura de capital, estratégia e competição de mercado na indústria de gás liquefeito de petróleo (GLP) no período 1995-2003

A indústria brasileira de gás liquefeito de petróleo, GLP, tem sido alvo freqüente, nos últimos anos, da atenção de órgãos reguladores, mídia e público em geral. Muitas têm sido as especulações a respeito de seu padrão de conduta publicados na imprensa, variando desde práticas predatórias até a formação disciplinada de cartel. A presente pesquisa, baseada em depoimentos de executivos da indústria e no acesso a dados das firmas dessa indústria tomado públicos - dados financeiros e operacionais - explora qual seja, afinal, o padrão de competição desse oligopólio. O estudo parte da Teoria da Estrutura de Capital aplicada para decisões de competição e mercado - preços e quantidades a ofertar para constatar que, dadas suas escolhas de estrutura de capital, as firmas esta indústria específica simplesmente adotam um padrão tradicional de arrefecimento da competição a partir de sua dívida. A dívida, nesta indústria, é utilizada para a criação de barreiras de entrada. Ainda assim, casos de acirramento da competição e de concentração de mercado foram encontrados, indicando que não haja uma disciplina formal de conduta por parte de suas firmas as quais devem, eventualmente, encontrar dificuldades - ou falta de interesse - na convivência em um mercado em fase de transformação.

Earnings dynamics and inequality in Venezuela: 1995-1997

In this paper, we decompose the variance of logarithmic monthly earnings of prime age males into its permanent and transitory components, using a five-wave rotating panel from the Venezuelan “Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo” from 1995 to 1997. As far as we know, this is the first time a variance components model is estimated for a developing country. We test several specifications and find that an error component model with individual random effects and first order serially correlated errors fits the data well. In the simplest model, around 22% of earnings variance is explained by the variance of permanent component, 77% by purely stochastic variation and the remaining 1% by serial correlation. These results contrast with studies from industrial countries where the permanent component is predominant. The permanent component is usually interpreted as the results of productivity characteristics of individuals whereas the transitory component is due to stochastic perturbations such as job and/or price instability, among others. Our findings may be due to the timing of the panel when occurred precisely during macroeconomic turmoil resulting from a severe financial crisis. The findings suggest that earnings instability is an important source of inequality in a region characterized by high inequality and macroeconomic instability.