Impact of the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) on salmon fisheries in Monterey Bay, California

To assess the impact of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) on salmon fisheries in the Monterey Bay region of California, the percentages of hooked fish taken by sea lions in commercial and recreational salmon fisheries were estimated from 1997 to 1999. Onboard surveys of sea lion interactions with the commercial and recreational f isheries and dockside interviews with fishermen after their return to port were conducted in the ports of Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and Monterey. Approximately 1745 hours of onboard and dockside surveys were conducted—924 hours in the commercial fishery and 821 hours in the recreational fishery (commercial passenger fishing vessels [CPFVs] and personal skiffs combined). Adult male California sea lions were responsible for 98.4% of the observed depredations of hooked salmon in the commercial and recreational fisheries in Monterey Bay. Mean annual percentages of hooked salmon taken by sea lions ranged from 8.5% to 28.6% in the commercial fishery, 2.2% to 18.36% in the CPFVs, and 4.0% to 17.5% in the personal skiff fishery. Depredation levels in the commercial and recreational salmon fisheries were greatest in 1998—likely a result of the large El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred from 1997 to 1998 that reduced natural prey resources. Commercial fishermen lost an estimated $18,031−$60,570 of gear and $225,833−$498,076 worth of salmon as a result of interactions with sea lions. Approximately 1.4−6.2% of the available salmon population was removed from the system as a result of sea lion interactions with the fishery. Assessing the impact of a growing sea lion population on fisheries stocks is difficult, but may be necessary for effective fisheries management.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Climate signals in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and regression analysis are used to investigate zonally averaged seasonal temperature anomaly patterns and trends in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The first four EOFs explain 64 percent of the temperature variance and can be related, respectively, to the solar flux (SF) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and turbidity (TB), and to ENSO. The signal of the fourth EOF is modulated in January to March by the solar flux, with the sense of the modulation determined by the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

Coastal climate reflected in carbon-13/carbon-12 ratio of organic carbon in varved sediment from Santa Barbara basin

A 1844-1987 time-series of carbon stable isotope ratios from dated sedimentary total organic carbon from the center of the Santa Barbara basin is compared with historical climate and oceanographic records. Carbon derived from carbon-13-depleted phytoplankton and carbon-13-enriched kelp appear responsible for a large part of the isotopic variance in sedimentary total organic carbon. El Niño/Southern Oscillation events are recorded by the isotopic response of marine organic carbon in sediments.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Meteorological signals in primary productivity at two mountain lakes

Fluctuations in primary productivity at two subalpine lakes reveal both meteorological and biological influences. At Castle Lake, California, large-scale climate events such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation affect total annual production and, combined with human fishing activity, modify the seasonal pattern of productivity. At Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, local spring weather conditions modulate annual production and its seasonality by determining the depth of mixing and resulting internal nutrient load. Climatic conditions also contribute to deviations from the long-term trend in productivity by increasing the incidence of forest fires and through anomalous external nutrient loads during precipitation extremes. A 3-year cycle in productivity of as yet unknown origin has also been detected at Lake Tahoe.

Multivariate climate reconstruction for the last 14,000 years in southernmost South America

Comparison between past changes in pollen assemblages and stable isotope ratios (deuterium and carbon) analyzed in the same peat core from Tierra del Fuego at latitude 55°S permitted identification of the relative contribution of precipitation versus temperature responsible for the respective change. Major steps in the sequence of paleoenvironmental changes, such as at 12700, 9000, 5000, and 4000 years ago are apparently related only to increase in precipitation, reflecting the latitudinal location and intensity of the westerly storm tracks. On the other hand, high paleoenvironmental variability, which is characteristic for the late-glacial and the latest Holocene, is related to temperature variability, which affects the relative moisture content. Comparison with other paleoenvironmental records suggests that the late-glacial temperature variability is probably related to variability in the extent of Antarctic sea-ice, which in turn appears to be related to the intensity of Atlantic deep-water circulation. Temperature variability during the latest Holocene, on the other hand, is probably related to the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Offshore coho salmon populations near the Pacific Northwest and large-scale atmospheric events

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Catch of coho salmon off the coast of Washington and Oregon since 1925 appears to be related to large-scale events in the atmosphere, which in turn affect ocean currents and coastal upwelling intensities in the northeastern Pacific. At least two time scales of variations can be identified. The first is that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon giving rise to an irregular cycle of between 3 to 7 years. ... The second time scale of variation seems to have a periodicity of about 20 years, although this is based on a limited dataset. ... This paper endeavors to describe how, if real, these atmospheric/oceanic effects are integrated and might affect the salmon catch. The possibility must also be considered that the atmospheric events are symbiotically related to the oceanic events and, further, that both may be enmeshed in even longer-term variability of climate.

The QBO, El Niño, and tidal resonance model

I tentatively conclude ... that the QBO may be either modulated or amplified by atmospheric tidal resonances. The generally strong correlation between the QBO and tropical Southern Oscillation, in turn, suggests that one or probably both of these stratospheric and tropospheric oscillations are modulated or amplified by the same tidal-resonance system. ... The strikingly weaker correlation between the Southern Oscillation and El Niño events strongly suggests that some critical parameters are missing in the GCMs specifically designed to predict El Niño occurrence.

The variability of eddy kinetic energy in the South China Sea deduced from satellite altimeter data

We used fifteen years (1993-2007) of altimetric data, combined from different missions (ERS-1/2, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Envisat), to analyze the variability of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the South China Sea (SCS). We found that the EKE ranged from 64 cm(2)/s(2) to 1 390 cm(2)/s(2) with a mean value of 314 cm(2)/s(2). The highest EKE center was observed to the east of Vietnam (with a mean value of 509 cm(2)/s(2)) and the second highest EKE region was located to the southwest of Taiwan Island (with a mean value of 319 cm(2)/s(2)). We also found that the EKE structure is the consequence of the superposition of different variability components. First, interannual variability is important in the SCS. Spectral analysis of the EKE interannual signal (IA-EKE) shows that the main periodicities of the IA-EKE to the east of Vietnam, to the southwest of Taiwan Island, and in the SCS are 3.75, 1.87, and 3.75 years, respectively. It is to the south of Taiwan Island that the IA-EKE signal has the most obvious impact on EKE variability. In addition, the IA-EKE exhibit different trends in different regions. An obvious positive trend is observed along the east coast of Vietnam, while a negative trend is found to the southwest of Taiwan Island and in the east basin of Vietnam. Correlation analysis shows that the IA-EKE has an obvious negative correlation with the SSTA in Nio3 (5A degrees S-5A degrees N, 90A degrees W-150A degrees W). El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the IA-EKE variability in the SCS through an atmospheric bridge-wind stress curl over the SCS. Second, the seasonal cycle is the most obvious timescale affecting EKE variability. The locations of the most remarkable EKE seasonal variabilities in the SCS are to the east of Vietnam, to the southwest of Taiwan, and to the west of Philippines. To the east of Vietnam, the seasonal cycle is the dominant mechanism controlling EKE variability, which is attributed primarily to the annual cycle there of wind stress curl. In this area, the maximum EKE is observed in autumn. To the southwest of Taiwan Island, the EKE is enlarged by the stronger SCS circulation, which is caused by the intrusion branch from the Kuroshio in winter. Finally, intra-annual and mesoscale variability, although less important than the former, cannot be neglected. The most obvious intra-annual and mesoscale variability, which may be the result of baroclinic instability of the background flow, are observed to the southwest of Taiwan Island. Sporadic events can have an important effect on EKE variability.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool and its relation to the dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the monthly average SST and 850 hPa monthly average wind data, the seasonal, interannual and long-term variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIWP) and its relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and its response to the wind over the Indian Ocean are analyzed in this study. The results show that the distribution range, boundary and area of the EIWP exhibited obviously seasonal and interannual variations associated with the ENSO cycles. Further analysis suggests that the EIWP had obvious long-term trend in its bound edge and area, which indicated the EIWP migrated westwards by about 14 longitudes for its west edge, southwards by about 5 latitudes for its south edge and increased by 3.52x10(6) km(2) for its area, respectively, from 1950 to 2002. The correlation and composite analyses show that the anomalous westward and northward displacements of the EIWP caused by the easterly wind anomaly and the southerly wind anomaly over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean played an important and direct role in the formation of the IOD.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.