An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd

A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.

Concentration of aluminium in breast cyst fluids collected from women affected by gross cystic breast disease

Gross cystic breast disease (GCBD) is the most common benign breast disorder, but the molecular basis of cyst formation remains to be identified. If the use of aluminium-based antiperspirant salts is involved in the etiology of gross breast cyst formation, it might be expected that aluminium would be at elevated levels in human breast cyst fluid (BCF). Aluminium was measured by ICP-MS in 48 samples of BCF, 30 samples of human blood serum and 45 samples of human breast milk at different stages of lactation (colostrum, intermediate, mature). The median level of aluminium in apocrine type I BCF (n:= 27, 150 mu g I-1) was significantly higher than in transuclative type II BCF (n = 21, 32 mu g I-1; P < 0.0001). By comparison, aluminium measurements gave a median concentration of 6 mu g I-1 in human serum and 25 mu g I-1 in human breast milk, with no difference between colostrum, intermediate and mature milk. Levels of aluminium were significantly higher in both types of BCF than in human serum (P < 0.0001). However when compared with human breast milk, aluminium levels were only significantly higher in apocrine type I BCF (P < 0.0001) and not in transudative type II BCF (P = 0.152). It remains to be identified why such high levels of aluminium were found in the apocrine type I BCF and from where the aluminium originated. However, if aluminium-based antiperspirants are found to be the source and to play any causal role in development of breast cysts, then it might become possible to prevent this common breast disorder. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulating the formation of secondary organic aerosol from the photooxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons

The formation and composition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from the photooxidation of benzene, p-xylene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene has been simulated using the Master Chemical Mechanism version 3.1 (MCM v3.1) coupled to a representation of the transfer of organic material from the gas to particle phase. The combined mechanism was tested against data obtained from a series of experiments conducted at the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) outdoor smog chamber in Valencia, Spain. Simulated aerosol mass concentrations compared reasonably well with the measured SOA data only after absorptive partitioning coefficients were increased by a factor of between 5 and 30. The requirement of such scaling was interpreted in terms of the occurrence of unaccounted-for association reactions in the condensed organic phase leading to the production of relatively more nonvolatile species. Comparisons were made between the relative aerosol forming efficiencies of benzene, toluene, p-xylene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, and differences in the OH-initiated degradation mechanisms of these aromatic hydrocarbons. A strong, nonlinear relationship was observed between measured (reference) yields of SOA and (proportional) yields of unsaturated dicarbonyl aldehyde species resulting from ring-fragmenting pathways. This observation, and the results of the simulations, is strongly suggestive of the involvement of reactive aldehyde species in association reactions occurring in the aerosol phase, thus promoting SOA formation and growth. The effect of NO, concentrations on SOA formation efficiencies (and formation mechanisms) is discussed.

Simulating the detailed chemical composition of secondary organic aerosol formed on a regional scale during the TORCH 2003 campaign in the southern UK

Following on from the companion study (Johnson et al., 2006), a photochemical trajectory model (PTM) has been used to simulate the chemical composition of organic aerosol for selected events during the 2003 TORCH (Tropospheric Organic Chemistry Experiment) field campaign. The PTM incorporates the speciated emissions of 124 nonmethane anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) and three representative biogenic VOC, a highly-detailed representation of the atmospheric degradation of these VOC, the emission of primary organic aerosol (POA) material and the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) material. SOA formation was represented by the transfer of semi and non-volatile oxidation products from the gas-phase to a condensed organic aerosol-phase, according to estimated thermodynamic equilibrium phase-partitioning characteristics for around 2000 reaction products. After significantly scaling all phase-partitioning coefficients, and assuming a persistent background organic aerosol (both required in order to match the observed organic aerosol loadings), the detailed chemical composition of the simulated SOA has been investigated in terms of intermediate oxygenated species in the Master Chemical Mechanism, version 3.1 ( MCM v3.1). For the various case studies considered, 90% of the simulated SOA mass comprises between ca. 70 and 100 multifunctional oxygenated species derived, in varying amounts, from the photooxidation of VOC of anthropogenic and biogenic origin. The anthropogenic contribution is dominated by aromatic hydrocarbons and the biogenic contribution by alpha-and beta-pinene (which also constitute surrogates for other emitted monoterpene species). Sensitivity in the simulated mass of SOA to changes in the emission rates of anthropogenic and biogenic VOC has also been investigated for 11 case study events, and the results have been compared to the detailed chemical composition data. The role of accretion chemistry in SOA formation, and its implications for the results of the present investigation, is discussed.

Simulating regional scale secondary organic aerosol formation during the TORCH 2003 campaign in the southern UK

A photochemical trajectory model has been used to simulate the chemical evolution of air masses arriving at the TORCH field campaign site in the southern UK during late July and August 2003, a period which included a widespread and prolonged photochemical pollution episode. The model incorporates speciated emissions of 124 nonmethane anthropogenic VOC and three representative biogenic VOC, coupled with a comprehensive description of the chemistry of their degradation. A representation of the gas/aerosol absorptive partitioning of ca. 2000 oxygenated organic species generated in the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.1) has been implemented, allowing simulation of the contribution to organic aerosol (OA) made by semi- and non-volatile products of VOC oxidation; emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and elemental carbon (EC) are also represented. Simulations of total OA mass concentrations in nine case study events (optimised by comparison with observed hourly-mean mass loadings derived from aerosol mass spectrometry measurements) imply that the OA can be ascribed to three general sources: (i) POA emissions; (ii) a '' ubiquitous '' background concentration of 0.7 mu g m(-3); and (iii) gas-to-aerosol transfer of lower volatility products of VOC oxidation generated by the regional scale processing of emitted VOC, but with all partitioning coefficients increased by a species-independent factor of 500. The requirement to scale the partitioning coefficients, and the implied background concentration, are both indicative of the occurrence of chemical processes within the aerosol which allow the oxidised organic species to react by association and/or accretion reactions which generate even lower volatility products, leading to a persistent, non-volatile secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The contribution of secondary organic material to the simulated OA results in significant elevations in the simulated ratio of organic carbon (OC) to EC, compared with the ratio of 1.1 assigned to the emitted components. For the selected case study events, [OC]/[EC] is calculated to lie in the range 2.7-9.8, values which are comparable with the high end of the range reported in the literature.

Simulating global properties of electroencephalograms with minimal random neural networks

The human electroencephalogram (EEG) is globally characterized by a 1/f power spectrum superimposed with certain peaks, whereby the "alpha peak" in a frequency range of 8-14 Hz is the most prominent one for relaxed states of wakefulness. We present simulations of a minimal dynamical network model of leaky integrator neurons attached to the nodes of an evolving directed and weighted random graph (an Erdos-Renyi graph). We derive a model of the dendritic field potential (DFP) for the neurons leading to a simulated EEG that describes the global activity of the network. Depending on the network size, we find an oscillatory transition of the simulated EEG when the network reaches a critical connectivity. This transition, indicated by a suitably defined order parameter, is reflected by a sudden change of the network's topology when super-cycles are formed from merging isolated loops. After the oscillatory transition, the power spectra of simulated EEG time series exhibit a 1/f continuum superimposed with certain peaks. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and simulating a mathematical tool for multi-robot pattern transformation

The work reported in this paper is motivated by the need to investigate general methods for pattern transformation. A formal definition for pattern transformation is provided and four special cases namely, elementary and geometric transformation based on repositioning all and some agents in the pattern are introduced. The need for a mathematical tool and simulations for visualizing the behavior of a transformation method is highlighted. A mathematical method based on the Moebius transformation is proposed. The transformation method involves discretization of events for planning paths of individual robots in a pattern. Simulations on a particle physics simulator are used to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Modeling and simulating a mathematical tool for multi-robot pattern transformation

The work reported in this paper is motivated by the need to investigate general methods for pattern transformation. A formal definition for pattern transformation is provided and four special cases namely, elementary and geometric transformation based on repositioning all and some agents in the pattern are introduced. The need for a mathematical tool and simulations for visualizing the behavior of a transformation method is highlighted. A mathematical method based on the Moebius transformation is proposed. The transformation method involves discretization of events for planning paths of individual robots in a pattern. Simulations on a particle physics simulator are used to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Simulating the impact of regulation changes on the market for prostitution services

The paper draws on recent research on the economics of prostitution focussing on the role of stigma in shaping the interaction between demand and supply and the resulting sub-markets in which this activity is typically organised. Here we extend the framework to consider the role of reputation and stigma in determining policy decisions regarding the regulation of prostitution and show how sub-optimal outcomes (from the point of view of the welfare of sex workers) may prevail.

Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.

Modelling the propagation of terahertz radiation through a tissue simulating phantom

Terahertz (THz) frequency radiation, 0.1 THz to 20 THz, is being investigated for biomedical imaging applications following the introduction of pulsed THz sources that produce picosecond pulses and function at room temperature. Owing to the broadband nature of the radiation, spectral and temporal information is available from radiation that has interacted with a sample; this information is exploited in the development of biomedical imaging tools and sensors. In this work, models to aid interpretation of broadband THz spectra were developed and evaluated. THz radiation lies on the boundary between regions best considered using a deterministic electromagnetic approach and those better analysed using a stochastic approach incorporating quantum mechanical effects, so two computational models to simulate the propagation of THz radiation in an absorbing medium were compared. The first was a thin film analysis and the second a stochastic Monte Carlo model. The Cole–Cole model was used to predict the variation with frequency of the physical properties of the sample and scattering was neglected. The two models were compared with measurements from a highly absorbing water-based phantom. The Monte Carlo model gave a prediction closer to experiment over 0.1 to 3 THz. Knowledge of the frequency-dependent physical properties, including the scattering characteristics, of the absorbing media is necessary. The thin film model is computationally simple to implement but is restricted by the geometry of the sample it can describe. The Monte Carlo framework, despite being initially more complex, provides greater flexibility to investigate more complicated sample geometries.

Analysis of aluminium content and iron homeostasis in nipple aspirate fluids from healthy women and breast cancer-affected patients

Aluminium is not a physiological component of the breast but has been measured recently in human breast tissues and breast cyst fluids at levels above those found in blood serum or milk. Since the presence of aluminium can lead to iron dyshomeostasis, levels of aluminium and iron-binding proteins (ferritin, transferrin) were measured in nipple aspirate fluid (NAF), a fluid present in the breast duct tree and mirroring the breast microenvironment. NAFs were collected noninvasively from healthy women (NoCancer; n = 16) and breast cancer-affected women (Cancer; n = 19), and compared with levels in serum (n = 15) and milk (n = 45) from healthy subjects. The mean level of aluminium, measured by ICP-mass spectrometry, was significantly higher in Cancer NAF (268.4 ± 28.1 μg l−1; n = 19) than in NoCancer NAF (131.3 ± 9.6 μg l−1; n = 16; P < 0.0001). The mean level of ferritin, measured through immunoassay, was also found to be higher in Cancer NAF (280.0 ± 32.3 μg l−1) than in NoCancer NAF (55.5 ± 7.2 μg l−1), and furthermore, a positive correlation was found between levels of aluminium and ferritin in the Cancer NAF (correlation coefficient R = 0.94, P < 0.001). These results may suggest a role for raised levels of aluminium and modulation of proteins that regulate iron homeostasis as biomarkers for identification of women at higher risk of developing breast cancer. The reasons for the high levels of aluminium in NAF remain unknown but possibilities include either exposure to aluminium-based antiperspirant salts in the adjacent underarm area and/or preferential accumulation of aluminium by breast tissues.