Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Cell sourcing for bone tissue engineering : amniotic fluid stem cells have a delayed, robust differentiation compared to mesenchymal stem cells

Cell based therapies for bone regeneration are an exciting emerging technology, but the availability of osteogenic cells is limited and an ideal cell source has not been identified. Amniotic fluid-derived stem (AFS) cells and bone-marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) were compared to determine their osteogenic differentiation capacity in both 2D and 3D environments. In 2D culture, the AFS cells produced more mineralized matrix but delayed peaks in osteogenic markers. Cells were also cultured on 3D scaffolds constructed of poly-e-caprolactone for 15 weeks. MSCs differentiated more quickly than AFS cells on 3D scaffolds, but mineralized matrix production slowed considerably after 5 weeks. In contrast, the rate of AFS cell mineralization continued to increase out to 15 weeks, at which time AFS constructs contained 5-fold more mineralized matrix than MSC constructs. Therefore, cell source should be taken into consideration when used for cell therapy, as the MSCs would be a good choice for immediate matrix production, but the AFS cells would continue robust mineralization for an extended period of time. This study demonstrates that stem cell source can dramatically influence the magnitude and rate of osteogenic differentiation in vitro.

Robust mean super-resolution for less cooperative NIR iris recognition at a distance and on the move

Less cooperative iris identification systems at a distance and on the move often suffers from poor resolution. The lack of pixel resolution significantly degrades the iris recognition performance. Super-resolution has been considered to enhance resolution of iris images. This paper proposes a pixelwise super-resolution technique to reconstruct a high resolution iris image from a video sequence of an eye. A novel fusion approach is proposed to incorporate information details from multiple frames using robust mean. Experiments on the MBGC NIR portal database show the validity of the proposed approach in comparison with other resolution enhancement techniques.

Robust suspicious behaviour detection for smart surveillance systems

Video surveillance technology, based on Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras, is one of the fastest growing markets in the field of security technologies. However, the existing video surveillance systems are still not at a stage where they can be used for crime prevention. The systems rely heavily on human observers and are therefore limited by factors such as fatigue and monitoring capabilities over long periods of time. To overcome this limitation, it is necessary to have “intelligent” processes which are able to highlight the salient data and filter out normal conditions that do not pose a threat to security. In order to create such intelligent systems, an understanding of human behaviour, specifically, suspicious behaviour is required. One of the challenges in achieving this is that human behaviour can only be understood correctly in the context in which it appears. Although context has been exploited in the general computer vision domain, it has not been widely used in the automatic suspicious behaviour detection domain. So, it is essential that context has to be formulated, stored and used by the system in order to understand human behaviour. Finally, since surveillance systems could be modeled as largescale data stream systems, it is difficult to have a complete knowledge base. In this case, the systems need to not only continuously update their knowledge but also be able to retrieve the extracted information which is related to the given context. To address these issues, a context-based approach for detecting suspicious behaviour is proposed. In this approach, contextual information is exploited in order to make a better detection. The proposed approach utilises a data stream clustering algorithm in order to discover the behaviour classes and their frequency of occurrences from the incoming behaviour instances. Contextual information is then used in addition to the above information to detect suspicious behaviour. The proposed approach is able to detect observed, unobserved and contextual suspicious behaviour. Two case studies using video feeds taken from CAVIAR dataset and Z-block building, Queensland University of Technology are presented in order to test the proposed approach. From these experiments, it is shown that by using information about context, the proposed system is able to make a more accurate detection, especially those behaviours which are only suspicious in some contexts while being normal in the others. Moreover, this information give critical feedback to the system designers to refine the system. Finally, the proposed modified Clustream algorithm enables the system to both continuously update the system’s knowledge and to effectively retrieve the information learned in a given context. The outcomes from this research are: (a) A context-based framework for automatic detecting suspicious behaviour which can be used by an intelligent video surveillance in making decisions; (b) A modified Clustream data stream clustering algorithm which continuously updates the system knowledge and is able to retrieve contextually related information effectively; and (c) An update-describe approach which extends the capability of the existing human local motion features called interest points based features to the data stream environment.

Empirical evaluation of an autonomous vehicle in an urban environment

Operation in urban environments creates unique challenges for research in autonomous ground vehicles. Due to the presence of tall trees and buildings in close proximity to traversable areas, GPS outage is likely to be frequent and physical hazards pose real threats to autonomous systems. In this paper, we describe a novel autonomous platform developed by the Sydney-Berkeley Driving Team for entry into the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge competition. We report empirical results analyzing the performance of the vehicle while navigating a 560-meter test loop multiple times in an actual urban setting with severe GPS outage. We show that our system is robust against failure of global position estimates and can reliably traverse standard two-lane road networks using vision for localization. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts in fusing vision data with other sensing modalities.

Active transonic aerofoil design optimization using robust multiobjective evolutionary algorithms

The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered, as they are promising techniques in aeronautic/ aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions and improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. This paper investigates the robust design and optimization for one type of adaptive techniques: active flow control bump at transonic flow conditions on a natural laminar flow aerofoil. The concept of using shock control bump is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of natural laminar flow aerofoil that leads to delaying shock occurrence (weakening its strength) or boundary layer separation. Such an active flow control technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of boundary-layer transition can influence the position and structure of the supersonic shock on the suction/pressure side of aerofoil. The boundarylayer transition position is considered as an uncertainty design parameter in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. This paper studies the shock-control-bump shape design optimization using robust evolutionary algorithms with uncertainty in boundary-layer transition locations. The optimization method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing, and asynchronous evaluation. The use of adaptive wing/aerofoil designs is being considered, as they are promising techniques in aeronautic/ aerospace since they can reduce aircraft emissions and improve aerodynamic performance of manned or unmanned aircraft. This paper investigates the robust design and optimization for one type of adaptive techniques: active flow control bump at transonic flow conditions on a natural laminar flow aerofoil. The concept of using shock control bump is to control supersonic flow on the suction/pressure side of natural laminar flow aerofoil that leads to delaying shock occurrence (weakening its strength) or boundary-layer separation. Such an active flow control technique reduces total drag at transonic speeds due to reduction of wave drag. The location of boundary-layer transition can influence the position and structure of the supersonic shock on the suction/pressure side of aerofoil. The boundarylayer transition position is considered as an uncertainty design parameter in aerodynamic design due to the many factors, such as surface contamination or surface erosion. This paper studies the shock-control-bump shape design optimization using robust evolutionary algorithms with uncertainty in boundary-layer transition locations. The optimization method is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing, and asynchronous evaluation. Two test cases are conducted: the first test assumes the boundary-layer transition position is at 45% of chord from the leading edge, and the second test considers robust design optimization for the shock control bump at the variability of boundary-layer transition positions. The numerical result shows that the optimization method coupled to uncertainty design techniques produces Pareto optimal shock-control-bump shapes, which have low sensitivity and high aerodynamic performance while having significant total drag reduction.

On the optimality of sample-based estimates of the expectation of the empirical minimizer

We study sample-based estimates of the expectation of the function produced by the empirical minimization algorithm. We investigate the extent to which one can estimate the rate of convergence of the empirical minimizer in a data dependent manner. We establish three main results. First, we provide an algorithm that upper bounds the expectation of the empirical minimizer in a completely data-dependent manner. This bound is based on a structural result due to Bartlett and Mendelson, which relates expectations to sample averages. Second, we show that these structural upper bounds can be loose, compared to previous bounds. In particular, we demonstrate a class for which the expectation of the empirical minimizer decreases as O(1/n) for sample size n, although the upper bound based on structural properties is Ω(1). Third, we show that this looseness of the bound is inevitable: we present an example that shows that a sharp bound cannot be universally recovered from empirical data.

Krylov subspace approximations for the exponential Euler method: Error estimates and the harmonic Ritz approximant

We study Krylov subspace methods for approximating the matrix-function vector product φ(tA)b where φ(z) = [exp(z) - 1]/z. This product arises in the numerical integration of large stiff systems of differential equations by the Exponential Euler Method, where A is the Jacobian matrix of the system. Recently, this method has found application in the simulation of transport phenomena in porous media within mathematical models of wood drying and groundwater flow. We develop an a posteriori upper bound on the Krylov subspace approximation error and provide a new interpretation of a previously published error estimate. This leads to an alternative Krylov approximation to φ(tA)b, the so-called Harmonic Ritz approximant, which we find does not exhibit oscillatory behaviour of the residual error.

Mean and variance of estimates of the bispectrum of a harmonic random process-an analysis including leakage effects

Analytical expressions are derived for the mean and variance, of estimates of the bispectrum of a real-time series assuming a cosinusoidal model. The effects of spectral leakage, inherent in discrete Fourier transform operation when the modes present in the signal have a nonintegral number of wavelengths in the record, are included in the analysis. A single phase-coupled triad of modes can cause the bispectrum to have a nonzero mean value over the entire region of computation owing to leakage. The variance of bispectral estimates in the presence of leakage has contributions from individual modes and from triads of phase-coupled modes. Time-domain windowing reduces the leakage. The theoretical expressions for the mean and variance of bispectral estimates are derived in terms of a function dependent on an arbitrary symmetric time-domain window applied to the record. the number of data, and the statistics of the phase coupling among triads of modes. The theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations for simple test cases and applied to laboratory data to examine phase coupling in a hypothesis testing framework

Robust speaker verification via fusion of speech and lip modalities

This paper investigates the use of lip information, in conjunction with speech information, for robust speaker verification in the presence of background noise. It has been previously shown in our own work, and in the work of others, that features extracted from a speaker's moving lips hold speaker dependencies which are complementary with speech features. We demonstrate that the fusion of lip and speech information allows for a highly robust speaker verification system which outperforms the performance of either sub-system. We present a new technique for determining the weighting to be applied to each modality so as to optimize the performance of the fused system. Given a correct weighting, lip information is shown to be highly effective for reducing the false acceptance and false rejection error rates in the presence of background noise

The use of speech and lip modalities for robust speaker verification under adverse conditions

Investigates the use of lip information, in conjunction with speech information, for robust speaker verification in the presence of background noise. We have previously shown (Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Proc., vol. 6, pp. 3693-3696, May 1998) that features extracted from a speaker's moving lips hold speaker dependencies which are complementary with speech features. We demonstrate that the fusion of lip and speech information allows for a highly robust speaker verification system which outperforms either subsystem individually. We present a new technique for determining the weighting to be applied to each modality so as to optimize the performance of the fused system. Given a correct weighting, lip information is shown to be highly effective for reducing the false acceptance and false rejection error rates in the presence of background noise