Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers

Damage from flooding in the winter and fall seasons has been widespread in the United Kingdom (UK) and Western Europe over recent decades. Here we show that winter flood events in the UK are connected to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow ribbons along which a large flux of moisture is transported from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Combining river flow records with rainfall measurements, satellite data and model simulations, we demonstrate that ARs occur simultaneously with the 10 largest winter flood events since 1970 in a range of British river basins, suggesting that ARs are persistently critical in explaining extreme winter flooding in the UK. Understanding the physical processes that determine the persistence of AR events will be of importance in assessing the risk of future flooding over north-western Europe and other mid-latitude regions.

Beyond the caves: the Palaeolithic rivers of south-west Britain

This paper introduces a new English Heritage (Aggregates Levy Sustainability Fund) project The Palaeolithic Rivers of South-West Britain (project no. 3847), and summarises the results of a first phase resource assessment. The goal of this ongoing project is to develop a new synthesis of the Lower and Middle Palaeolithic occupation of the south-west region, focusing upon river terrace-based archaeology and its implications for hominin landscape use. The resource assessment has reached two preliminary conclusions. Firstly that the region’s earliest Palaeolithic archaeological record is significantly richer than previously believed, and secondly that although find locations have been added in several areas which previously had very few or no finds (e.g.West Cornwall) the overall bias of finds to the south coast is maintained. The project has also revealed that the river terrace resource of South-West England offers potential for geochronological dating, landscape reconstruction, and improved contextualisation of the archaeological material. Some outreach components of the project are also summarised.

Hydrochemical processes in lowland rivers: insights from in situ, high-resolution monitoring

This paper introduces new insights into the hydrochemical functioning of lowland river systems using field-based spectrophotometric and electrode technologies. The streamwater concentrations of nitrogen species and phosphorus fractions were measured at hourly intervals on a continuous basis at two contrasting sites on tributaries of the River Thames – one draining a rural catchment, the River Enborne, and one draining a more urban system, The Cut. The measurements complement those from an existing network of multi-parameter water quality sondes maintained across the Thames catchment and weekly monitoring based on grab samples. The results of the sub-daily monitoring show that streamwater phosphorus concentrations display highly complex dynamics under storm conditions dependent on the antecedent catchment wetness, and that diurnal phosphorus and nitrogen cycles occur under low flow conditions. The diurnal patterns highlight the dominance of sewage inputs in controlling the streamwater phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations at low flows, even at a distance of 7 km from the nearest sewage treatment works in the rural River Enborne. The time of sample collection is important when judging water quality against ecological thresholds or standards. An exhaustion of the supply of phosphorus from diffuse and multiple septic tank sources during storm events was evident and load estimation was not improved by sub-daily monitoring beyond that achieved by daily sampling because of the eventual reduction in the phosphorus mass entering the stream during events. The results highlight the utility of sub-daily water quality measurements and the discussion considers the practicalities and challenges of in situ, sub-daily monitoring.

The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow plumes of enhanced moisture transport in the lower troposphere, are a key synoptic feature behind winter flooding in midlatitude regions. This article develops an algorithm which uses the spatial and temporal extent of the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport for the detection of persistent ARs (lasting 18 h or longer) in five atmospheric reanalysis products. Applying the algorithm to the different reanalyses in the vicinity of Great Britain during the winter half-years of 1980–2010 (31 years) demonstrates generally good agreement of AR occurrence between the products. The relationship between persistent AR occurrences and winter floods is demonstrated using winter peaks-over-threshold (POT) floods (with on average one flood peak per winter). In the nine study basins, the number of winter POT-1 floods associated with persistent ARs ranged from approximately 40 to 80%. A Poisson regression model was used to describe the relationship between the number of ARs in the winter half-years and the large-scale climate variability. A significant negative dependence was found between AR totals and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCP), with a greater frequency of ARs associated with lower SCP values.

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing.

How do atmospheric rivers form?

Identifying the source of atmospheric rivers: Are they rivers of moisture exported from the subtropics or footprints left behind by poleward travelling storms? The term atmospheric river is used to describe corridors of strong water vapor transport in the troposphere. Filaments of enhanced water vapor, commonly observed in satellite imagery extending from the subtropics to the extratropics, are routinely used as a proxy for identifying these regions of strong water vapor transport. The precipitation associated with these filaments of enhanced water vapor can lead to high impact flooding events. However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper we analyse the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front which sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone's warm sector, and not long-distance transport of water vapor from the subtropics, is responsible for the generation of filaments of high water vapor content. A continuous cycle of evaporation and moisture convergence within the cyclone replenishes water vapor lost via precipitation. Thus, rather than representing a direct and continuous feed of moist air from the subtropics into the centre of a cyclone (as suggested by the term atmospheric river), these filaments are, in-fact, the result of water vapor exported from the cyclone and thus they represent the footprints left behind as cyclones travel polewards from subtropics.

Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall events continue to be one of the largest natural hazards in the UK. In winter, heavy precipitation and floods have been linked with intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), yet no large-scale atmospheric precursors have been linked to summer flooding in the UK. This study investigates the link between ARs and extreme rainfall from two perspectives: 1) Given an extreme rainfall event, is there an associated AR? 2) Given an AR, is there an associated extreme rainfall event? We identify extreme rainfall events using the UK Met Office daily rain-gauge dataset and link these to ARs using two different horizontal resolution atmospheric datasets (ERA-Interim and 20th Century Re-analysis). The results show that less than 35% of winter ARs and less than 15% of summer ARs are associated with an extreme rainfall event. Consistent with previous studies, at least 50% of extreme winter rainfall events are associated with an AR. However, less than 20% of the identified summer extreme rainfall events are associated with an AR. The dependence of the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR on the years included in the study, and on the length of the season, is also examined. Including a longer period (1900-2012) compared to previous studies (1979-2005) reduces the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR.

Phylogenetic group distribution among Escherichia coli isolated from rivers in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The phylogenetic group distribution of Escherichia coli strains isolated from the Sorocaba and Jaguari Rivers located in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, is described. E. coli strains from group D were found in both rivers while one strain from group B2 was isolated from the Sorocaba river. These two groups often include strains that can cause extraintestinal diseases. Most of the strains analyzed were allocated into the phylogenetic groups A and B1, supporting the hypothesis that strains from these phylogenetic groups are more abundant in tropical areas. Though both rivers are located in urbanized and industrialized areas where the main source of water pollution is considered to derive from domestic sewage, our results suggest that the major sources of contamination in the sampling sites of both rivers might have originated from animals and not humans.

Habitat use by the hymenosomatid crab Amarinus lacustris (Chilton) in two south-eastern Australian rivers

The hymenosomatid crab Amarinus lacustris is abundant in some south-eastern Australian rivers; however, little is known of its ecology. Patterns of habitat use by crabs in rivers may be affected by seasonal changes in river discharge. This study investigates population characteristics, timing of reproduction and patterns of habitat use by A. lacustris in five riffle and pool habitats from each of the Hopkins and Merri Rivers in south-west Victoria, Australia, sampled over a twelve-month period. Distribution of Amarinus lacustris was similar between the two rivers, but log-linear modelling showed that there was a strong association between crab sex, habitat occupied and time of year because female A. lacustris showed a shift from riffle to pool habitats during March and April, coinciding with the non-gravid period of the year. Male crabs also showed a change in relative occurrence, occurring most often in riffles during winter–spring (July–November) but being equally common in both habitats in summer–autumn (January–May). These patterns are probably the result of the reproductive cycle of A. lacustris, which appears to show both ontogenetic and sex-related changes in habitat use during its life cycle, taking advantage of seasonal fluctuations in flow regime that may assist egg/larval development and dispersal.

The influence of reduced flow during a drought on patterns of variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages across a spatial hierarchy in two lowland rivers

1. With the aim of determining whether patterns of variation in macroinvertebrate assemblage composition across the hierarchy of spatial units in two lowland rivers changed during a supra-seasonal drought (1997–2000), patterns during a reduced flow season (1999–2000) were compared with those during two preceding higher flow seasons (1997–98 and 1998–99) using samples from the Glenelg and Wimmera Rivers, two lowland regulated rivers in western Victoria, Australia.

2. We hypothesised that (i) differences between reaches would increase during the reduced flow season owing to decreased hydrological connectivity, (ii) differences between the habitats would decrease because the cessation of flow in run habitats should cause them to become more similar to pool habitats and (iii) differences between microhabitats would also decrease because of reduced scour of inorganic substrata and large woody debris.

3. During each season, macroinvertebrates were sampled from three microhabitats (sand/silt substratum, large woody debris and macrophytes) that were hierarchically nested within a run or pool habitat and within one of three reaches within each river. A range of physico-chemical variables was also sampled.

4. Analysis of similarity showed that assemblage composition in both rivers during the higher flow seasons differed more among microhabitats than other spatial units. However, during the reduced flow season, assemblage composition in the Wimmera River differed most among reaches. This change in pattern was associated with the combined effects of decreased flow and longitudinal increases in salinity. In contrast, the fauna of the Glenelg River appeared to be resistant to the effects of the reduced flow season, owing to limited decline in water quality despite lower river discharge.

5. As salinisation and poor water quality in the Wimmera River result from human activities in the catchment, these results support the idea that human impacts on rivers can change macroinvertebrate scaling patterns and exacerbate the effects of drought beyond the tolerance of many riverine macroinvertebrates.

Multiple lines of evidence for the beneficial effects of environmental flows in two lowland rivers in Victoria, Australia

The aim of this study was to identify whether environmental flows released into two lowland rivers (the Glenelg and Wimmera Rivers, western Victoria, Australia) during the spring to autumn period had successfully ameliorated the negative effects of multiple human impacts. Macroinvertebrates and a range of physico-chemical variables were sampled from three reaches in each river. Both rivers were sampled during three environmental release seasons with average-sized releases (1997-1998, 1998-1999 and 2001-2002) and two drought seasons with limited releases (1999-2000 and 2000-2001). The effects of releasing average-sized environmental flows on macroinvertebrates and physico-chemical variables were assessed by comparison with data from the two drought seasons. For the Glenelg River, data from a reference season prior to the release of environmental flows (1995-1996) was also compared to data from the five environmental flow seasons. Multivariate analyses revealed four pieces of evidence indicating that the release of environmental flows effectively slowed the process of environmental degradation in the Glenelg River but not in the Wimmera River: (1) the magnitude of the river discharge was dependent on the size of environmental flow releases; (2) in the Wimmera River, water quality deteriorated markedly during the two drought seasons and correlated strongly with macroinvertebrate assemblage structure, but this was not observed in the Glenelg River; (3) the taxonomic composition of the macroinvertebrate assemblages among contrasting flow release seasons reflected the severe deterioration in water quality of the Wimmera River; (4) despite two drought seasons with minimal environmental flow releases, the macroinvertebrate assemblage in the Glenelg River did not differ from the average-release seasons, nor did it return to a pre-environmental flows condition. Therefore, it appears that environmental flow releases did sustain the macroinvertebrate assemblage and maintain reasonable water quality in the Glenelg River. However, in the Wimmera River, release volumes were too small to maintain low salinities and were associated with marked changes in the macroinvertebrate assemblage. Therefore, there are multiple lines of evidence that environmental flow releases of sufficient magnitude may slow the process of degradation in a regulated lowland river.

Atlantic Salmon Habitat on Maine's Rivers and Streams

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A Map of Impoundments and Their Primary Purpose on Maine Rivers

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