An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

WNT16 influences bone mineral density, cortical bone thickness, bone strength, and osteoporotic fracture risk

We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with cortical bone thickness (CBT) and bone mineral density (BMD) by performing two separate genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses for CBT in 3 cohorts comprising 5,878 European subjects and for BMD in 5 cohorts comprising 5,672 individuals. We then assessed selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for osteoporotic fracture in 2,023 cases and 3,740 controls. Association with CBT and forearm BMD was tested for ~2.5 million SNPs in each cohort separately, and results were meta-analyzed using fixed effect meta-analysis. We identified a missense SNP (Thr>Ile; rs2707466) located in the WNT16 gene (7q31), associated with CBT (effect size of -0.11 standard deviations [SD] per C allele, P = 6.2×10-9). This SNP, as well as another nonsynonymous SNP rs2908004 (Gly>Arg), also had genome-wide significant association with forearm BMD (-0.14 SD per C allele, P = 2.3×10-12, and -0.16 SD per G allele, P = 1.2×10-15, respectively). Four genome-wide significant SNPs arising from BMD meta-analysis were tested for association with forearm fracture. SNP rs7776725 in FAM3C, a gene adjacent to WNT16, was associated with a genome-wide significant increased risk of forearm fracture (OR = 1.33, P = 7.3×10-9), with genome-wide suggestive signals from the two missense variants in WNT16 (rs2908004: OR = 1.22, P = 4.9×10-6 and rs2707466: OR = 1.22, P = 7.2×10-6). We next generated a homozygous mouse with targeted disruption of Wnt16. Female Wnt16-/- mice had 27% (P<0.001) thinner cortical bones at the femur midshaft, and bone strength measures were reduced between 43%-61% (6.5×10-13<P<5.9×10-4) at both femur and tibia, compared with their wild-type littermates. Natural variation in humans and targeted disruption in mice demonstrate that WNT16 is an important determinant of CBT, BMD, bone strength, and risk of fracture. © 2012 Zheng et al.

A review of efficiency measures for REITs and their specific application for Malaysian Islamic REITs

Purpose This paper aims to present a conceptual model on the efficiency of Islamic Real Estate Trusts (I-REITs) available in Malaysia. The key difference between the Islamic and their conventional investment vehicle part is mainly its own Shariah framework. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews and synthesises the relevant literature on the performance analysis and efficiency measurements of Real Estate Investment Trusts. The paper then develops and proposes a conceptual model to measure the efficiency of Malaysian Islamic REITs. Findings The paper identifies and examines the appropriate methods and instruments to measure the efficiency in relation to the risk and profitability of Islamic REITs. The efficiency measure is important for the fund managers in order to maximise the shareholders’ return in an investment of property portfolio as well as proposing the best way to allocate resources efficiently. Research limitation/implications This is a preliminary review of current work that identifies the issues that will be addressed in future empirical research. The authors will be undertaking this future empirical research in measuring the efficiency of Malaysian REITs particularly the Islamic REITs using the non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Originality/value To date, there has been very limited research on the efficiency measurement of Islamic REITs. The current analysis of REIT has been focused on traditional non-Islamic funds. This paper will review and discuss the current literature on efficiency measurement to determine the most appropriate approaches and methodologies for future application in performance analysis of efficiency measure for Malaysian Islamic REITs.

Critical risk factors affecting the implementation of PPP waste-to-energy projects in China

Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.

Occupational injury risk among Australian paramedics: An analysis of national data

Objective To identify the occupational risks for Australian paramedics, by describing the rate of injuries and fatalities and comparing those rates with other reports. Design and participants Retrospective descriptive study using data provided by Safe Work Australia for the period 2000–2010. The subjects were paramedics who had been injured in the course of their duties and for whom a claim had been made for workers compensation payments. Main outcome measures Rates of injury calculated from the data provided. Results The risk of serious injury among Australian paramedics was found to be more than seven times higher than the Australian national average. The fatality rate for paramedics was about six times higher than the national average. On average, every 2 years during the study period, one paramedic died and 30 were seriously injured in vehicle crashes. Ten Australian paramedics were seriously injured each year as a result of an assault. The injury rate for paramedics was more than two times higher than the rate for police officers. Conclusions The high rate of occupational injuries and fatalities among paramedics is a serious public health issue. The risk of injury in Australia is similar to that in the United States. While it may be anticipated that injury rates would be higher as a result of the nature of the work and environment of paramedics, further research is necessary to identify and validate the strategies required to minimise the rates of occupational injury for paramedics.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Factors associated with health risk behavior among school children in urban Vietnam

Background Health risk behavior among young people is a public health problem in Vietnam. In addition, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for those aged 15–29 years. The consequences can be devastating for adolescents and their families, and can create a significant economic burden on society. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify protective and risk factors that may influence three health risk behaviors among school children: suicidal thinking (ST), drinking alcohol (DA), and underage motorbike driving (MD). Methods A cross-sectional survey of 972 adolescents (aged 12–15 years) was conducted in two secondary schools in Hanoi, Vietnam. The schools were purposely selected, one each from the inner city and a suburban area, from which classes (grade 6 to 8) were randomly selected. All students attending classes on survey days took part in the survey. The anonymous, self-completed questionnaire included measures of risk behavior, school connectedness, parental bonding, and other factors. Multivariable regression models were used to examine associations between the independent variables and the three health risk behaviors controlling for confounding factors. Results Young people in the inner city school reported a higher prevalence of all three risk behaviors than those in the suburban area (ST: 16.1% [95% confidence interval, or CI, 12.9–19.3] versus 4.6% [95% CI 2.7–6.5], p<0.001; DA: 20.3% [95% CI 16.8–23.8] versus 8.3% [95% CI 5.8–10.8], p<0.001, and MD: 10.1% [95% CI 7.4–12.8] versus 5.7% [95% CI 3.6–7.8], p<0.01). School connectedness and mother and father care appeared to be significant protective factors. For males, bullying in school was associated with suicidal thoughts, whereas for both males and females, school connectedness may be protective against suicidal ideation. Conclusion This study supports findings from other nations regarding suicidal thoughts and alcohol use, and appears to be one of the first to examine risk and protective factors forMD. Health promotion within schools should be introduced to improve students’ feelings of connectedness in combination with communication and education campaigns focusing on parental care and engaging teachers for the promotion of safer, supportive school environments.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin in foods at the two most severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Background Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases were bulk storages for Agent Orange during the Vietnam War and currently are the two most severe dioxin hot spots. Objectives This study assesses the health risk of exposure to dioxin through foods for local residents living in seven wards surrounding these airbases. Methods This study follows the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the health risk of exposure to dioxin in foods. Forty-six pooled samples of commonly consumed local foods were collected and analyzed for dioxin/furans. A food frequency and Knowledge–Attitude–Practice survey was also undertaken at 1000 local households, various stakeholders were involved and related publications were reviewed. Results Total dioxin/furan concentrations in samples of local “high-risk” foods (e.g. free range chicken meat and eggs, ducks, freshwater fish, snail and beef) ranged from 3.8 pg TEQ/g to 95 pg TEQ/g, while in “low-risk” foods (e.g. caged chicken meat and eggs, seafoods, pork, leafy vegetables, fruits, and rice) concentrations ranged from 0.03 pg TEQ/g to 6.1 pg TEQ/g. Estimated daily intake of dioxin if people who did not consume local high risk foods ranged from 3.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 6.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Bien Hoa) and from 1.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 4.3 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Da Nang). Consumption of local high risk foods resulted in extremely high dioxin daily intakes (60.4–102.8 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Bien Hoa; 27.0–148.0 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Da Nang). Conclusions Consumption of local “high-risk” foods increases dioxin daily intakes far above the WHO recommended TDI (1–4 pg TEQ/kg bw/day). Practicing appropriate preventive measures is necessary to significantly reduce exposure and health risk.

Dioxin risk reduction programme at the most severe dioxin hot spot in Vietnam: Residual knowledge, attitude and practices five years post intervention

Bien Hoa Airbase was one of the bulk storage and supply facilities for defoliants during the Vietnam War. Environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase have elevated levels of dioxin. In 2007, a pre-intervention knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey of local residents living in Trung Dung and Tan Phong wards was undertaken regarding appropriate strategies to reduce dioxin exposure. A risk reduction programme was implemented in 2008 and post-intervention KAP surveys were undertaken in 2009 and 2013 to evaluate the longer term impacts. Quantitative assessment was undertaken via a KAP survey in 2013 among 600 local residents randomly selected from the two intervention wards and one control ward (Buu Long). Eight in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions were also undertaken for qualitative assessment. Most programme activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities had not been integrated into local routine health education programmes; however, main results generally remained and were better than that in Buu Long. In total, 48.2% of households undertook measures to prevent exposure, higher than those in pre- and post-intervention surveys (25.8% and 39.7%) and the control ward (7.7%). Migration and the sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the programme's sustainability

Dietary and exercise interventions to improve quality of life, metabolic risk factors and androgen deficiency symptoms in men with prostate cancer undergoing androgen deprivation therapy

Introduction Lifestyle interventions might be useful in the management of adverse effects of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in men with prostate cancer. Objectives To examine the effects of dietary and exercise interventions on quality of life (QoL), metabolic risk factors and androgen deficiency symptoms in men with prostate cancer undergoing ADT. Methods CINAHL, Cochrane library, Medline and PsychINFO were searched to identify randomised controlled trials published from January, 2004 to October, 2014. Data extraction and methodological quality assessment was independently conducted by two reviewers. Meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan® 5.3.5. Results Of 2183 articles retrieved, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and had low risk of bias.Nine studies evaluated exercise (resistance and/or aerobic and/or counselling) and three evaluated dietary supplementation. Median sample size =79 (33–121) and median intervention duration was 12 weeks (12–24). Exercise improved QoL measures (SMD 0.26, 95%CI −0.01 to 0.53) but not body composition, metabolic risk or vasomotor symptoms. Qualitative analysis indicated soy (or isoflavone) supplementation did not improve vasomotor symptoms; however, may improve QoL. Conclusions Few studies have evaluated the efficacy of lifestyle interventions in the management of adverse effects of ADT. We found inconclusive results for exercise in improving QoL and negative results for other outcomes. For soy-based products, we found negative results for modifying vasomotor symptoms and inconclusive results for improving QoL. Future work should investigate the best mode of exercise for improving QoL and other interventions such as dietary counselling should be investigated for their potential to modify these outcomes.

'Work it out': Evaluation of a chronic condition self-management program for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with or at risk of cardiovascular disease

This thesis evaluates a chronic condition self-management program for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in urban south-east Queensland who have or are at risk of cardiovascular disease. Outcomes showed short-term improvements for some anthropometry measures which could be a trend for improvement in other anthropometry indicators over the longer term. The program was of particular benefit for participants who had several social and emotional wellbeing conditions. The use of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander conceptual framework was critical in undertaking culturally competent quantitative research in this project.

Global trade in ornamental fish from an Australian perspective: The case for revised import risk analysis and management strategies

Over 1 billion ornamental fish comprising more than 4000 freshwater and 1400 marine species are traded internationally each year, with 8-10 million imported into Australia alone. Compared to other commodities, the pathogens and disease translocation risks associated with this pattern of trade have been poorly documented. The aim of this study was to conduct an appraisal of the effectiveness of risk analysis and quarantine controls as they are applied according to the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement in Australia. Ornamental fish originate from about 100 countries and hazards are mostly unknown; since 2000 there have been 16-fold fewer scientific publications on ornamental fish disease compared to farmed fish disease, and 470 fewer compared to disease in terrestrial species (cattle). The import quarantine policies of a range of countries were reviewed and classified as stringent or non-stringent based on the levels of pre-border and border controls. Australia has a stringent policy which includes pre-border health certification and a mandatory quarantine period at border of 1-3 weeks in registered quarantine premises supervised by government quarantine staff. Despite these measures there have been many disease incursions as well as establishment of significant exotic viral, bacterial, fungal, protozoal and metazoan pathogens from ornamental fish in farmed native Australian fish and free-living introduced species. Recent examples include Megalocytivirus and Aeromonas salmonicida atypical strain. In 2006, there were 22 species of alien ornamental fish with established breeding populations in waterways in Australia and freshwater plants and molluscs have also been introduced, proving a direct transmission pathway for establishment of pathogens in native fish species. Australia's stringent quarantine policies for imported ornamental fish are based on import risk analysis under the SPS agreement but have not provided an acceptable level of protection (ALOP) consistent with government objectives to prevent introduction of pests and diseases, promote development of future aquaculture industries or maintain biodiversity. It is concluded that the risk analysis process described by the Office International des Epizooties under the SPS agreement cannot be used in a meaningful way for current patterns of ornamental fish trade. Transboundary disease incursions will continue and exotic pathogens will become established in new regions as a result of the ornamental fish trade, and this will be an international phenomenon. Ornamental fish represent a special case in live animal trade where OIE guidelines for risk analysis need to be revised. Alternatively, for countries such as Australia with implied very high ALOP, the number of species traded and the number of sources permitted need to be dramatically reduced to facilitate hazard identification, risk assessment and import quarantine controls. Lead papers of the eleventh symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Cairns, Australia

Pain among employees : risk factors and consequences

The overall objective of this study was to gain epidemiological knowledge about pain among employee populations. More specifically, the aims were to assess the prevalence of pain, to identify socio-economic risk groups and work-related psychosocial risk factors, and to assess the consequences in terms of health-related functioning and sickness absence. The study was carried out among the municipal employees of the City of Helsinki. Data comprised questionnaire survey conducted in years 2000-2002 and register data on sickness absence. Altogether 8960 40-60 year old employees participated to the survey (response rate 67%). Pain is common among ageing employees. Approximately 29 per cent of employees reported chronic pain and 15 per cent acute pain, and about seven per cent reported moderately or severely limiting disabling chronic pain. Pain was more common among those with lower level of education or in a low occupational class. -- Psychosocial work environment was associated with pain reports. Job strain, bullying at workplace, and problems in combining work and home duties were associated with pain among women. Among men combining work and home duties was not associated with pain, whereas organizational injustice showed associations. Pain affects functional capacity and predicts sickness absence. Those with pain reported lower level of both mental and physical functioning than those with no pain, physical functioning being more strongly affected than mental. Bodily location of pain or whether pain was acute or chronic had only minor impact on the variation in functioning, whereas the simple count of painful locations was associated with widest variation. Pain accounted for eight per cent of short term (1-3 day) sickness absence spells among men and 13 per cent among women. Of absence spells lasting between four and 14 days pain accounted for 23 per cent among women and 25 per cent among men, corresponding figures for over 14 day absence spells being 37 and 30 per cent. The association between pain and sickness absence was relatively independent of physical and psychosocial work factors, especially among women. The results of this study provide a picture of the epidemiology of pain among employees. Pain is a significant problem that seriously affects work ability. Information on risk groups can be utilized to make prevention measures more effective among those at high risk, and to decrease pain rates and thereby narrow the differences between socio-economic groups. Furthermore, the work-related psychosocial risk factors identified in this study are potentially modifiable, and it should be possible to target interventions on decreasing pain rates among employees.

Associations among working conditions and behavioral risk factors : The Helsinki Health Study with International Comparisons

Adverse health behaviors as well as obesity are key risk factors for chronic diseases. Working conditions also contribute to health outcomes. It is possible that the effects of psychosocially strenuous working conditions and other work-related factors on health are, to some extent, explained by adverse behaviors. Previous studies about the associations between several working conditions and behavioral outcomes are, however, inconclusive. Moreover, the results are derived mostly from male populations, one national setting only, and with limited information about working conditions and behavioral risk factors. Thus, with an interest in employee health, this study was set to focus on behavioral risk factors among middle-aged employees. More specifically, the main aim was to shed light on the associations of various working conditions with health behaviors, weight gain, obesity, and symptoms of angina pectoris. In addition to national focus, international comparisons were included to test the associations across countries thereby aiming to produce a more comprehensive picture. Furthermore, a special emphasis was on gaining new evidence in these areas among women. The data derived from the Helsinki Health Study, and from collaborative partners at the Whitehall II Study, University College London, UK, and the Toyama University, Japan. In Helsinki, the postal questionnaires were mailed in 2000-2002 to employees of the City of Helsinki, aged 40 60 years (n=8960). The questionnaire data covered e.g., socio-economic indicators and working conditions such as Karasek s job demands and job control, work fatigue, working overtime, work-home interface, and social support. The outcome measures consisted of smoking, drinking, physical activity, food habits, weight gain, obesity, and symptoms of angina pectoris. The international cohorts included comparable data. Logistic regression analysis was used. The models were adjusted for potential confounders such as age, education, occupational class, and marital status subject to specific aims. The results showed that working conditions were mostly unassociated with health behaviors, albeit some associations were found. Low job strain was associated with healthy food habits and non-smoking among women in Helsinki. Work fatigue, in turn, was related to drinking among men and physical inactivity among women. Work fatigue and working overtime were associated with weight gain in Helsinki among both women and men. Finally, work fatigue, low job control, working overtime, and physically strenuous work were associated with symptoms of angina pectoris among women in Helsinki. Cross-country comparisons confirmed mostly non-existent associations. High job strain was associated with physical inactivity and smoking, and passive work with physical inactivity and less drinking. Working overtime, in turn, related to non-smoking and obesity. All these associations were, however, inconsistent between cohorts and genders. In conclusion, the associations of the studied working conditions with the behavioral risk factors lacked general patters, and were, overall, weak considering the prevalence of psychosocially strenuous work and overtime hours. Thus, based on this study, the health effects of working conditions are likely to be mediated by adverse behaviors only to a minor extent. The associations of work fatigue and working overtime with weight gain and symptoms of angina pectoris are, however, of potential importance to the subsequent health and work ability of employees.