Risk mitigation framework for a robust design process

The increasing complexity of new manufacturing processes and the continuously growing range of fabrication options mean that critical decisions about the insertion of new technologies must be made as early as possible in the design process. Mitigating the technology risks under limited knowledge is a key factor and major requirement to secure a successful development of the new technologies. In order to address this challenge, a risk mitigation methodology that incorporates both qualitative and quantitative analysis is required. This paper outlines the methodology being developed under a major UK grand challenge project - 3D-Mintegration. The main focus is on identifying the risks through identification of the product key characteristics using a product breakdown approach. The assessment of the identified risks uses quantification and prioritisation techniques to evaluate and rank the risks. Traditional statistical process control based on process capability and six sigma concepts are applied to measure the process capability as a result of the risks that have been identified. This paper also details a numerical approach that can be used to undertake risk analysis. This methodology is based on computational framework where modelling and statistical techniques are integrated. Also, an example of modeling and simulation technique is given using focused ion beam which is among the investigated in the project manufacturing processes.

Psychology and interventions for pupils at risk of underachievement and school exclusion: the year 10 effect

Findings are presented from a longitudinal study of over 1,500 adolescents. Some were engaged in interventions aimed at reducing social disaffection. Participants completed measures of social-identification, academic self-concept and motivation, and social, emotional and behavioural difficulties. Consistent with our previous research, developmental trends in identity and self-concept were found - adolescents became more negative about some school-based factors and more positive about aspects of identity. Trends were less clear in the 120 adolescents receiving interventions. Findings demonstrate the importance of psychology in work with young people. [Source: (2008) 'Invited Address, IUPsyS Invited Symposium, Invited Symposium, Symposium, Paper Session, Poster Session', International Journal of Psychology, 43:3, 348 - 527]

Social identification and prevalence of PTSD in Northern Ireland

Background Understanding of the psychological impact of politically motivated violence is poor. Aims To examine the prevalence of post-traumatic symptoms subsequentto the ‘troubles’ in Northern Ireland. Method A telephone survey of 3000 adults, representative of the population in Northern Ireland and the border counties of the Irish Republic, examined exposure to political violence, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and national identity. Results Ten per cent of respondents had symptoms suggestive of clinical PTSD. These people were most likely to come from low-income groups, rate national identity as relatively unimportant and have higher overall experience of the ‘troubles’than other respondents. Conclusions Direct experience of violence and poverty increase the risk of PTSD, whereas strong national identification appears to reduce this risk.

Model selection approaches for non-linear system identification: a review

The identification of non-linear systems using only observed finite datasets has become a mature research area over the last two decades. A class of linear-in-the-parameter models with universal approximation capabilities have been intensively studied and widely used due to the availability of many linear-learning algorithms and their inherent convergence conditions. This article presents a systematic overview of basic research on model selection approaches for linear-in-the-parameter models. One of the fundamental problems in non-linear system identification is to find the minimal model with the best model generalisation performance from observational data only. The important concepts in achieving good model generalisation used in various non-linear system-identification algorithms are first reviewed, including Bayesian parameter regularisation and models selective criteria based on the cross validation and experimental design. A significant advance in machine learning has been the development of the support vector machine as a means for identifying kernel models based on the structural risk minimisation principle. The developments on the convex optimisation-based model construction algorithms including the support vector regression algorithms are outlined. Input selection algorithms and on-line system identification algorithms are also included in this review. Finally, some industrial applications of non-linear models are discussed.

‘Risk, Politics and the ‘Scientification’ of Political Judgement: Prisoner Release and Conflict Transformation in Northern Ireland’

Drawing on research in Northern Ireland into the process of release under the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, this article explores the identification and classification of risk in relation to prisoners released early under the Sentences (NI) Act. The main argument is that conflict, post-conflict and transitional conditions expose more starkly the political underpinnings of risk-management strategy and the article demonstrates the particular variant of Politicized Risk Assessment (PRA) recently used in the release of prisoners in Northern Ireland

Development of a novel PCR assay for the identification of the black yeast, Exophiala (Wangiella) dermatitidis from adult patients with cystic fibrosis (CF)

Cystic fibrosis (CF) patients may suffer increased morbidity and mortality through colonisation, allergy and invasive infection from fungi. The black yeast, Exophiala dermatitidis (synonym Wangiella dermatitidis) has been found with increasing frequency in sputum specimens of CF patients, with reported isolation rates ranging from 1.1 to 15.7%. At present, no diagnostic PCR exists to aid with the clinical laboratory detection and identification of this organism. A novel species-specific PCR-based assay was developed for the detection of E. dermatitidis, based on employment of rDNA operons and interspacer (ITS) regions between these rDNA operons. Two novel primers, (designated ExdF & ExdR) were designed in silico with the aid of computer-aided alignment software and with the alignment of multiple species of Exophiala, as well as with other commonly described yeasts and filamentous fungi within CF sputum, including Candida. Aspergillus and Scedosporium. An amplicon of approximately 455 by was generated, spanning the partial ITS I region - the complete 5.8S rDNA region - partial ITS2 region, employing ExdF (forward primer [16-mer], 5'-CCG CCT ATT CAG GTC C-3' and ExdR (reverse primer [16-mer], 5'-TCT CTC CCA CTC CCG C-3', was employed and optimised on extracted genomic DNA from a well characterised culture of E. dermatitidis, as well as with high quality genomic DNA template from a further 16 unrelated fungi, including Candida albicans, C. dubliniensis, C. parapsilosis, C. glabrata, Scedosporium apiospermum, Penicillium sp., Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus versicolor, Pichia guilliermondii, Rhodotorula sp., Trichosporon sp., Aureobasidium pullulans, Fusarium sp., Mucor hiemalis, Bionectria ochroleuca, Gibberella pulicaris. Results demonstrated that only DNA from E. dermatitidis gave an amplification product of the expected sire, whilst none of the other fungi were amplifiable. Subsequent employment of this primer pair detected this yeast from mycological cultures from 2/50 (4%) adult CF patients. These two patients were the only patients who were previously shown to have a cultural history of E. dermatitidis from their sputum. E. dermatitidis is a slow-growing fungus, which usually takes up to two weeks to culture in the microbiology laboratory and therefore is slow to detect conventionally, with the risk of bacterial overgrowth from common co-habiting pan- and multiresistant bacterial pathogens from sputum. namely Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Burkholderia cepacia complex organisms, hence this species-specific PCR assay may help detect this organism from CF sputum more specifically and rapidly. Overall, employment of this novel assay nay help in the understanding of the occurrence. aetiology and epidemiology of E. dermatitidis, as an emerging fungal agent in patients with CF. (C) 2008 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of gene networks associated with acute myeloid leukemia by comparative molecular methylation and expression profiling

Around 80% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients achieve a complete remission, however many will relapse and ultimately die of their disease. The association between karyotype and prognosis has been studied extensively and identified patient cohorts as having favourable [e.g. t(8; 21), inv (16)/t(16; 16), t(15; 17)], intermediate [e.g. cytogenetically normal (NK-AML)] or adverse risk [e.g. complex karyotypes]. Previous studies have shown that gene expression profiling signatures can classify the sub-types of AML, although few reports have shown a similar feature by using methylation markers. The global methylation patterns in 19 diagnostic AML samples were investigated using the Methylated CpG Island Amplification Microarray (MCAM) method and CpG island microarrays containing 12,000 CpG sites. The first analysis, comparing favourable and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups, revealed significantly differentially methylated CpG sites (594 CpG islands) between the two subgroups. Mutations in the NPM1 gene occur at a high frequency (40%) within the NK-AML subgroup and are associated with a more favourable prognosis in these patients. A second analysis comparing the NPM1 mutant and wild-type research study subjects again identified distinct methylation profiles between these two subgroups. Network and pathway analysis revealed possible molecular mechanisms associated with the different risk and/or mutation sub-groups. This may result in a better classification of the risk groups, improved monitoring targets, or the identification of novel molecular therapies.

Systematic review of reviews of risk factors for intracranial aneurysms

Systematic reviews of systematic reviews identify good quality reviews of earlier studies of medical conditions. This article describes a systematic review of systematic reviews performed to investigate factors that might influence the risk of rupture of an intracranial aneurysm. It exemplifies the technique of this type of research and reports the finding of a specific study. The annual incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage resulting from the rupture of intracranial aneurysms is estimated to be nine per 100,000. A large proportion of people who have this bleed, will die or remain dependent on the care of others for some time. Reliable knowledge about the risks of subarachnoid haemorrhage in different populations will help in planning, screening and prevention strategies and in predicting the prognosis of individual patients. If the necessary data were available in the identified reviews, an estimate for the numerical relationship between a particular characteristic and the risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage was included in this report. The identification of eligible systematic reviews relied mainly on the two major bibliographic databases of the biomedical literature: PubMed and EMBASE. These were searched in 2006, using specially designed search strategies. Approximately 2,000 records were retrieved and each of these was checked carefully against the eligibility criteria for this systematic review. These criteria required that the report be a systematic review of studies assessing the risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage in patients known to have an unruptured intracranial aneurysm or of studies that had investigated the characteristics of people who experienced a subarachnoid haemorrhage without previously being known to have an unruptured aneurysm. Reports which included more than one systematic review were eligible and each of these reviews was potentially eligible. The quality of each systematic review was assessed. In this review, 16 separate reports were identified, including a total of 46 eligible systematic reviews. These brought together research studies for 24 different risk factors. This has shown that the following factors appear to be associated with a higher risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage: being a woman, older age, posterior circulation aneurysms, larger aneurysms, previous symptoms,

Tobacco smoking increases the risk of high-grade dysplasia and cancer among patients with Barrett's esophagus

Background & Aims: Esophageal adenocarcinoma arises from Barrett's esophagus (BE); patients with this cancer have a poor prognosis. Identification of modifiable lifestyle factors that affect the risk of progression from BE to esophageal adenocarcinoma might prevent its development. We investigated associations among body size, smoking, and alcohol use with progression of BE to neoplasia. Methods: We analyzed data from patients with BE identified from the population-based Northern Ireland BE register, diagnosed between 1993 and 2005 with specialized intestinal metaplasia (n = 3167). Data on clinical, demographic, and lifestyle factors related to diagnosis of BE were collected from hospital case notes. We used the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry to identify which of these patients later developed esophageal adenocarcinoma, adenocarcinomas of the gastric cardia, or esophageal high-grade dysplasia. Cox proportional hazards models were used to associate lifestyle factors with risk of progression.
Results: By December 31, 2008, 117 of the patients with BE developed esophageal high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinomas of the esophagus or gastric cardia. Current tobacco smoking was significantly associated with an increased risk of progression (hazard ratio = 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-3.17) compared with never smoking, and across all strata of smoking intensity. Alcohol consumption was not related to risk of progression. Measures of body size were infrequently reported in endoscopy reports, and body size was not associated with risk of progression.
Conclusions: Smoking tobacco increases the risk of progression to cancer or high-grade dysplasia 2-fold among patients with BE, compared with patients with BE that have never smoked. Smoking cessation strategies should be considered for patients with BE.

Associations between maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related stress among low-risk mothers: An observational cross-sectional study

Background: Pregnancy is viewed as a major life event and, while the majority of healthy, low-risk women adapt well to pregnancy, there are those whose levels of stress are heightened by the experience.

Objectives: To determine the level of pregnancy-related stress experienced by a group of healthy, low-risk pregnant women and to relate the level of stress with a number of maternal characteristics.

Design: An observational cross-sectional study.

Setting: A large, urban maternity centre in Northern Ireland.

Participants: Of the 306 pregnant women who were invited to participate, 278 provided informed consent and were administered one self-complete questionnaire. Due to the withdrawal criteria, 15 questionnaires were removed from the analysis, resulting in a final sample of 263 healthy, low-risk pregnant women.

Methods: Levels of stress were measured using a self-report measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns relating to pregnancy. Maternal characteristics collected included age, marital status, social status, parity, obstetric history, perceived health status and 'wantedness' for the pregnancy. Regression analysis was undertaken using an ordinary linear regression model.

Results: The mean prenatal distress score in the sample was 15.1 (SD = 7.4; range 0-46). The regression model showed that women who had had previous pregnancies, with or without complications, had significantly lower mean prenatal distress scores than primiparous women (p < 0.01). Women reporting poorer physical health had higher mean prenatal distress scores than those who reported at least average health, while women aged 16-20 experienced a mean increase in the reported prenatal distress score (p < 0.05) in comparison to the reference group of 36 years and over.

Conclusions: This study brings to light the prevalence of pregnancy-related stress within a sample representative of healthy, low-risk women. Current antenatal care is ill-equipped to identify women suffering from high levels of stress; yet a growing body of research evidence links stress with adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study emphasises that healthy, low-risk women experience a range of pregnancy-related stress and identification of stress levels, either through the use of a simple stress measurement tool or through the associated factors identified within this research study, provides valuable data on maternal well-being. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of low inorganic and total grain arsenic rice cultivars from Bangladesh

For the world's population, rice consumption is a major source of inorganic arsenic (As), a nonthreshold class 1 carcinogen. Reducing the amount of total and inorganic As within the rice grain would reduce the exposure risk. In this study, grain As was measured in 76 cultivars consisting of Bangladeshi landraces, improved Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) cultivars, and parents of permanent mapping populations grown in two field sites in Bangladesh, Faridpur and Sonargaon, irrigated with As-contaminated tubewell water. Grain As ranged from 0.16 to 0.74 mg kg(-1) at Faridpur and from 0.07 to 0.28 mg kg(-1) at Sonargaon. Highly significant cultivar differences were detected and a significant correlation (r = 0.802) in the grain As between the two field sites was observed, indicating stable genetic differences in As accumulation. The cultivars with the highest concentration of grain As were the Bangladeshi landraces. Landraces with red bran had significantly more grain As than the cultivars with brown bran. The percent of inorganic As decreased linearly with increasing total As, but genetic variation within this trend was identified. A number of local cultivars with low grain As were identified. Some tropical japonica cultivars with low grain As have the potential to be used in breeding programs and genetic studies aiming to identify genes which decrease grain As.

Predicting IQ of biologically "at risk" children from age 3 to school entry:sensitivity and specificity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale IV

Predictive validity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale Fourth Edition (S-B IV) from age 3 years to ages 4-5 years was evaluated with biologically "at risk" children without major sensory or motor impairments (n = 236). Using the standard scoring, children with full scale IQ <or = 84 on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence at age 4-5 years were poorly identified (sensitivity 54%) from the composite S-B IV score at age 3. However, sensitivity improved greatly to 78% by including as a predictor the number of subtests the child was actually able to perform at age 3 years. Measures from the Home Screening Questionnaire and ratings of mother-child interaction further improved sensitivity to 83%. The standard method for calculating the composite score on the S-B IV excludes subtests with a raw score of 0, which overestimates cognitive functioning in young biologically high risk children. Accuracy of early identification was improved significantly by considering the number of subtests the child did not perform at age 3 years.

Complex Interactions between Dioxin-Like and Non-Dioxin-Like Compounds for in Vitro Cellular Responses: Implications for the Identification of Dioxin Exposure Biomarkers

Despite considerable advances in reducing the production of dioxin-like toxicants in recent years, contamination of the food chain still occasionally occurs resulting in huge losses to the agri-food sector and risk to human health through exposure. Dioxin-like toxicity is exhibited by a range of stable and bioaccumulative compounds including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs), produced by certain types of combustion, and man-made coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as found in electrical transformer oils. While dioxinergic compounds act by a common mode of action making exposure detection biomarker based techniques a potentially useful tool, the influence of co-contaminating toxicants on such approaches needs to be considered. To assess the impact of possible interactions, the biological responses of H4IIE cells to challenge by 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in combination with PCB-52 and benzo-a-pyrene (BaP) were evaluated by a number of methods in this study. Ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) induction in TCDD exposed cells was suppressed by increasing concentrations of PCB-52, PCB-153, or BaP up to 10 mu M. BaP levels below 1 mu M suppressed TCDD stimulated EROD induction, but at higher concentrations, EROD induction was greater than the maximum observed when cells were treated with TCDD alone. A similar biphasic interaction of BaP with TCDD co-exposure was noted in the AlamarBlue assay and to a lesser extent with PCB-52. Surface enhanced laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (SELDI-TOF) profiling of peptidomic responses of cells exposed to compound combinations was compared. Cells co-exposed to TCDD in the presence of BaP or PCB-52 produced the most differentiated spectra with a substantial number of non-additive interactions observed. These findings suggest that interactions between dioxin and other toxicants create novel, additive, and non-additive effects, which may be more indicative of the types of responses seen in exposed animals than those of single exposures to the individual compounds.

Identification of a BRCA1-mRNA Splicing Complex Required for Efficient DNA Repair and Maintenance of Genomic Stability

Mutations within BRCA1 predispose carriers to a high risk of breast and ovarian cancers. BRCA1 functions to maintain genomic stability through the assembly of multiple protein complexes involved in DNA repair, cell-cycle arrest, and transcriptional regulation. Here, we report the identification of a DNA damage-induced BRCA1 protein complex containing BCLAF1 and other key components of the mRNA-splicing machinery. In response to DNA damage, this complex regulates pre-mRNA splicing of a number of genes involved in DNA damage signaling and repair, thereby promoting the stability of these transcripts/proteins. Further, we show that abrogation of this complex results in sensitivity to DNA damage, defective DNA repair, and genomic instability. Interestingly, mutations in a number of proteins found within this complex have been identified in numerous cancer types. These data suggest that regulation of splicing by the BRCA1-mRNA splicing complex plays an important role in the cellular response to DNA damage.