Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Gaze stabilization testing: The efficiency and test-retest reliability of user operated control versus the parameter estimation (PEST) algorithm

The primary objective of this research study is to determine which form of testing, the PEST algorithm or an operator-controlled condition is most accurate and time efficient for administration of the gaze stabilization test

Reliability of a method for evaluating porosity in denture base resins

Background: The method of porosity analysis by water absorption has been carried out by the storage of the specimens in pure water, but it does not exclude the potential plasticising effect of the water generating unreal values of porosity. Objective: The present study evaluated the reliability of this method of porosity analysis in polymethylmethacrylate denture base resins by the determination of the most satisfactory solution for storage (S), where the plasticising effect was excluded. Materials and methods: Two specimen shapes (rectangular and maxillary denture base) and two denture base resins, water bath-polymerised (Classico) and microwave-polymerised (Acron MC) were used. Saturated anhydrous calcium chloride solutions (25%, 50%, 75%) and distilled water were used for specimen storage. Sorption isotherms were used to determine S. Porosity factor (PF) and diffusion coefficient (D) were calculated within S and for the groups stored in distilled water. anova and Tukey tests were performed to identify significant differences in PF results and Kruskal-Wallis test and Dunn multiple comparison post hoc test, for D results (alpha = 0.05). Results: For Acron MC denture base shape, FP results were 0.24% (S 50%) and 1.37% (distilled water); for rectangular shape FP was 0.35% (S 75%) and 0.19% (distilled water). For Classico denture base shape, FP results were 0.54% (S 75%) and 1.21% (distilled water); for rectangular shape FP was 0.7% (S 50%) and 1.32% (distilled water). FP results were similar in S and distilled water only for Acron MC rectangular shape (p > 0.05). D results in distilled water were statistically higher than S for all groups. Conclusions: The results of the study suggest that an adequate solution for storing specimens must be used to measure porosity by water absorption, based on excluding the plasticising effect.

Reliability of orbital fits for resonant extrasolar planetary systems: the case of HD82943

We perform a statistical study of the process of orbital determination of the HD82943 extrasolar planetary system, using the current observational data set of N = 165 radial velocity (RV) measurements. Our aim is to analyse the dispersion of possible orbital fits leading to residuals compatible with the best solution, and to discuss the sensitivity of the results with respect to both the data set and the error distribution around the best fit. Although some orbital parameters (e.g. semimajor axis) appear well constrained, we show that the best fits for the HD82943 system are not robust, and at present it is not possible to estimate reliable solutions for these bodies. Finally, we discuss the possibility of a third planet, with a mass of 0.35M(Jup) and an orbital period of 900 d. Stability analysis and simulations of planetary migration indicate that such a hypothetical three-planet system could be locked in a double 2/1 mean-motion resonance, similar to the so-called Laplace resonance of the three inner Galilean satellites of Jupiter.

Reliability of GPS based traffic data: an experimental evaluation

GPS tracking of mobile objects provides spatial and temporal data for a broad range of applications including traffic management and control, transportation routing and planning. Previous transport research has focused on GPS tracking data as an appealing alternative to travel diaries. Moreover, the GPS based data are gradually becoming a cornerstone for real-time traffic management. Tracking data of vehicles from GPS devices are however susceptible to measurement errors – a neglected issue in transport research. By conducting a randomized experiment, we assess the reliability of GPS based traffic data on geographical position, velocity, and altitude for three types of vehicles; bike, car, and bus. We find the geographical positioning reliable, but with an error greater than postulated by the manufacturer and a non-negligible risk for aberrant positioning. Velocity is slightly underestimated, whereas altitude measurements are unreliable.

Reliability of toluidine blue application in the detection of oral epithelial dysplasia and in situ and invasive squamous cell carcinomas

Objective, the objective of this study was to evaluate the reliability of in vivo staining with toluidine blue in the detection of oral epithelial dysplasia, in situ carcinoma, and invasive squamous cell carcinomas in potentially malignant epithelial lesions (PMELs) and superficial oral ulcerations suggesting malignancy.Study design. Fifty patients with PMELs and superficial oral ulcerations suggestive of malignancy were selected from those treated at the Oral Medicine Service, Faculty of Dentistry, Araraquara, Brazil. All lesions were submitted to staining with an aqueous solution of 1% toluidine blue, followed by biopsy and histologic analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated.Results. Histologic diagnosis revealed that 14% of the lesions analyzed were in situ carcinoma and invasive squamous cell carcinomas, 12% were epithelial dysplasias, 13% were keratosis, 40% were lichen planus, and 8% were other benign lesions. The sensitivity uf the staining was 77%, the specificity 67%, and the positive and negative predictive values 43.5% and 88.9%, respectivelyConclusions, Staining with toluidine blue was demonstrated to be highly reliable in the detection of in situ carcinoma acid invasive squamous cell carcinoma, because false-negative results for the lesions did not occur. Toluidine blue staining is an adjunct to clinical judgment and not a substitute for either judgment or biopsy.

Reliability of a method for evaluating porosity in denture base resins

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reliability of assessing dye penetration along root canal fillings using methylene blue

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On the reliability of visual communication in vertebrate-dispersed fruits

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Validity and reliability of the Portuguese version of Mandibular Function Impairment Questionnaire

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: The case of ESI 2005

The complexity of the environment demands a well-constructed composite environmental index (CEI) to provide a useful tool to draw attention to environmental conditions and trends for policy purposes. Among the common difficulties in constructing a proper CEI are uncertainties due to the selection of the most representative underlying variables or indicators. A degree of uncertainty accompanies experts' judgments, and to deal with vague, subjective or inconsistent information, logic other than classic is required. This study analyzes a procedure that uses different experts' opinions in constructing a CEI. with the use of paraconsistent annotated logic. For this, a sensitivity analysis of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI 2005) was used as an example to assess the reliability of experts' opinions. The uncertainty due to the disagreement in experts' opinions clearly indicates that the forms we presently use to measure and monitor the actual environment are insufficient, that is, there is a lack of a "science of sustainability". (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of carnitine concentrations measured in single postprandial urine samples from dogs

Objective - To evaluate the reliability of urine carnitine concentrations measured in single postprandial samples, compared with carnitine concentrations measured in 24-hour urine samples. Animals - 19 healthy Beagles. Procedure - After emptying the urinary bladder by catheterization, dogs were fed a canned canine maintenance diet. Approximately 8 hours later, urine, plasma, and serum samples were obtained for determination of urinary carnitine fractional excretion and urine carnitine-to-creatinine concentration ratio. Results were compared with 24-hour urinary carnitine excretion rate. Results - Fractional excretion of carnitine and urine carnitine-to-creatinine ratios correlated poorly with 24-hour urinary carnitine excretion. Conclusion - Determination of 24-hour urinary carnitine excretion is recommended to measure urine carnitine concentrations in dogs.