Can quantitative EEG measures predict clinical outcome in subjects at Clinical High Risk for psychosis? A prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND Prediction studies in subjects at Clinical High Risk (CHR) for psychosis are hampered by a high proportion of uncertain outcomes. We therefore investigated whether quantitative EEG (QEEG) parameters can contribute to an improved identification of CHR subjects with a later conversion to psychosis. METHODS This investigation was a project within the European Prediction of Psychosis Study (EPOS), a prospective multicenter, naturalistic field study with an 18-month follow-up period. QEEG spectral power and alpha peak frequencies (APF) were determined in 113 CHR subjects. The primary outcome measure was conversion to psychosis. RESULTS Cox regression yielded a model including frontal theta (HR=1.82; [95% CI 1.00-3.32]) and delta (HR=2.60; [95% CI 1.30-5.20]) power, and occipital-parietal APF (HR=.52; [95% CI .35-.80]) as predictors of conversion to psychosis. The resulting equation enabled the development of a prognostic index with three risk classes (hazard rate 0.057 to 0.81). CONCLUSIONS Power in theta and delta ranges and APF contribute to the short-term prediction of psychosis and enable a further stratification of risk in CHR samples. Combined with (other) clinical ratings, EEG parameters may therefore be a useful tool for individualized risk estimation and, consequently, targeted prevention.

Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Do Changes in Regulation Affect Employment Duration in Temporary Work Agencies? CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 07.1, 2007

Over the past three decades Germany has repeatedly deregulated the law on temporary agency work by stepwise increasing the maximum period for hiring-out employees and allowing temporary work agencies to conclude fixed-term contracts. These reforms should have had an effect on employment duration within temporary work agencies. Based on an informative administrative data set we use a mixed proportional hazard rate model to examine whether employment duration has changed in response to these reforms. We find that the repeated prolongation of the maximum period for hiring-out employees significantly increased average employment duration while the authorization of fixed-term contracts reduced employment tenure.

Postsystolic thickening detected by Doppler myocardial imaging: A marker of viability or ischemia in patients with myocardial infarction

Background: Postsystolic thickening (PST) of ischemic myocardial segments has been reported to account for the characteristic heterogeneity or regional asynchrony of myocardial wall motion during acute ischemia. Hypothesis: Postsystolic thickening detected by Doppler myocardial imaging (DMI) could be a useful clinical index of myocardial viability or peri-infarction viability in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: Doppler myocardial imaging was recorded at each stage of a standard dobutamine stress echocardiogram (DSE) in 20 patients (16 male, 60 +/- 13 years) with an NIT in the territory of the left anterior descending artery. Myocardial velocity data were measured in the interventricular septum and apical inferior segment of the MI territory. Postsystolic thickening was identified if the absolute velocity of PST was higher than peak systolic velocity in the presence of either a resting PST > 2.0 cm/s or if PST doubled at low-dose dobutamine infusion. Results: Doppler myocardial imaging data could be analyzed in 38 ischemic segments (95%), and PST was observed in 21 segments (55%), including 3 segments showing PST only at low-dose dobutamine infusion. There was no significant difference of baseline wall motion score index (2.1 +/- 0.3 vs. 2.1 +/- 0.6, p = 0.77) or peak systolic velocity (1.1 +/- 1.1 vs. 1.9 +/- 2.0 cm/s, p = 0.05) between segments with and without PST Peri-infarction ischemia or viability during DSE was more frequently observed in segments with PST than in those without (86 vs. 24%, p < 0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of PST for prediction of peri-infarction viability or ischemia was 82 and 81%, respectively. Conclusions: Postsystolic thickening in the infarct territory detected by DMI is closely related with peri-infarction ischemia or viability at DSE.

Determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease

Aims/hypothesis: Subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction has been shown by tissue Doppler and strain imaging in diabetic patients in the absence of coronary disease or LV hypertrophy, but the prevalence and aetiology of this finding remain unclear. This study sought to identify the prevalence and the determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease. Methods: A group of 219 unselected patients with type 2 diabetes without known cardiac disease underwent resting and stress echocardiography. After exclusion of coronary artery disease or LV hypertrophy, the remaining 120 patients ( age 57 +/- 10 years, 73 male) were studied with tissue Doppler imaging. Peak systolic strain of each wall and systolic (Sm) and diastolic ( Em) velocity of each basal segment were measured from the three apical views and averaged for each patient. Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was identified according to Sm and Em normal ranges adjusted by age and sex. Strain and Em were correlated with clinical, therapeutic, echocardiographic and biochemical variables, and significant independent associations were sought using a multiple linear regressionmodel. Results: Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was present in 27% diabetic patients. Myocardial systolic dysfunction by peak strain was independently associated with glycosylated haemoglobin level ( p< 0.001) and lack of angiotensin- converting enzyme inhibitor treatment ( p= 0.003). Myocardial diastolic function ( Em) was independently predicted by age ( p= 0.013), hypertension ( p= 0.001), insulin ( p= 0.008) and metformin ( p= 0.01) treatment. Conclusions/ interpretation: In patients with diabetes mellitus, subclinical LV dysfunction is common and associated with poor diabetic control, advancing age, hypertension and metformin treatment; ACE inhibitor and insulin therapies appear to be protective.

Identification of visual field progression

The study developed statistical techniques to evaluate visual field progression for use with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (HFA). The long-term fluctuation (LF) was evaluated in stable glaucoma. The magnitude of both LF components showed little relationship with MD, CPSD and SF. An algorithm was proposed for determining the clinical necessity for a confirmatory follow-up examination. The between-examination variability was determined for the HFA Standard and FASTPAC algorithms in glaucoma. FASTPAC exhibited greater between-examination variability than the Standard algorithm across the range of sensitivities and with increasing eccentricity. The difference in variability between the algorithms had minimal clinical significance. The effect of repositioning the baseline in the Glaucoma Change Probability Analysis (GCPA) was evaluated. The global baseline of the GCPA limited the detection of progressive change at a single stimulus location. A new technique, pointwise univariate linear regressions (ULR), of absolute sensitivity and, of pattern deviation, against time to follow-up was developed. In each case, pointwise ULR was more sensitive to localised progressive changes in sensitivity than ULR of MD, alone. Small changes in sensitivity were more readily determined by the pointwise ULR than by the GCPA. A comparison between the outcome of pointwise ULR for all fields and for the last six fields manifested linear and curvilinear declines in the absolute sensitivity and the pattern deviation. A method for delineating progressive loss in glaucoma, based upon the error in the forecasted sensitivity of a multivariate model, was developed. Multivariate forecasting exhibited little agreement with GCPA in glaucoma but showed promise for monitoring visual field progression in OHT patients. The recovery of sensitivity in optic neuritis over time was modelled with a Cumulative Gaussian function. The rate and level of recovery was greater in the peripheral than the central field. Probability models to forecast the field of recovery were proposed.

Fractional Calculus of P-transforms

MSC 2010: 44A20, 33C60, 44A10, 26A33, 33C20, 85A99

Conventional versus hypofractionated high-dose intensity-modulated radiotherapy for prostate cancer: 5-year outcomes of the randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 CHHiP trial

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer might have high radiation-fraction sensitivity that would give a therapeutic advantage to hypofractionated treatment. We present a pre-planned analysis of the efficacy and side-effects of a randomised trial comparing conventional and hypofractionated radiotherapy after 5 years follow-up.

METHODS: CHHiP is a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial that recruited men with localised prostate cancer (pT1b-T3aN0M0). Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to conventional (74 Gy delivered in 37 fractions over 7·4 weeks) or one of two hypofractionated schedules (60 Gy in 20 fractions over 4 weeks or 57 Gy in 19 fractions over 3·8 weeks) all delivered with intensity-modulated techniques. Most patients were given radiotherapy with 3-6 months of neoadjuvant and concurrent androgen suppression. Randomisation was by computer-generated random permuted blocks, stratified by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group and radiotherapy treatment centre, and treatment allocation was not masked. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical or clinical failure; the critical hazard ratio (HR) for non-inferiority was 1·208. Analysis was by intention to treat. Long-term follow-up continues. The CHHiP trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN97182923.

FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2002, and June 17, 2011, 3216 men were enrolled from 71 centres and randomly assigned (74 Gy group, 1065 patients; 60 Gy group, 1074 patients; 57 Gy group, 1077 patients). Median follow-up was 62·4 months (IQR 53·9-77·0). The proportion of patients who were biochemical or clinical failure free at 5 years was 88·3% (95% CI 86·0-90·2) in the 74 Gy group, 90·6% (88·5-92·3) in the 60 Gy group, and 85·9% (83·4-88·0) in the 57 Gy group. 60 Gy was non-inferior to 74 Gy (HR 0·84 [90% CI 0·68-1·03], pNI=0·0018) but non-inferiority could not be claimed for 57 Gy compared with 74 Gy (HR 1·20 [0·99-1·46], pNI=0·48). Long-term side-effects were similar in the hypofractionated groups compared with the conventional group. There were no significant differences in either the proportion or cumulative incidence of side-effects 5 years after treatment using three clinician-reported as well as patient-reported outcome measures. The estimated cumulative 5 year incidence of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) grade 2 or worse bowel and bladder adverse events was 13·7% (111 events) and 9·1% (66 events) in the 74 Gy group, 11·9% (105 events) and 11·7% (88 events) in the 60 Gy group, 11·3% (95 events) and 6·6% (57 events) in the 57 Gy group, respectively. No treatment-related deaths were reported.

INTERPRETATION: Hypofractionated radiotherapy using 60 Gy in 20 fractions is non-inferior to conventional fractionation using 74 Gy in 37 fractions and is recommended as a new standard of care for external-beam radiotherapy of localised prostate cancer.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, and the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The complementary exponential geometric distribution: Model, properties, and a comparison with its counterpart

In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Poisson-exponential distribution: a Bayesian approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.