793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Customer perceived value is concerned with the experiences of consumers when using a service and is often referred to in the context of service provision or on the basis of service quality (Auh, et al., 2007; Chang, 2008; Jackson, 2007; Laukkanen, 2007; Padgett & Mulvey, 2007; Shamdasani, Mukherjee & Malhotra, 2008). Understanding customer perceived value has benefits for social marketing and allows scholars and practitioners alike to identify why consumers engage in positive social behaviours through the use of services. Understanding consumers’ use of wellness services in particular is important, because the use of wellness services demonstrates the fulfilment of social marketing aims; performing pro-active, positive social behaviours that are of benefit to the individual and to society (Andreasen, 1994). As consumers typically act out of self-interest (Rothschild, 1999), this research posits that a value proposition must be made to consumers in order to encourage behavioural change. Thus, this research seeks to identify how value is created for consumers of wellness services in social marketing. This results in the overall research question of this research: How is value created in social marketing wellness services? A traditional method towards understanding value has been the adoption of an economic approach, which considers the utility gained and where value is a direct outcome of a cost-benefit analysis (Payne & Holt, 1999). However, there has since been a shift towards the adoption of an experiential approach in understanding value. This experiential approach considers the consumption experience of the consumer which extends beyond the service exchange and includes pre- and post-consumption stages (Russell-Bennett, Previte & Zainuddin, 2009). As such, this research uses an experiential approach to identify the value that exists in social marketing wellness services. Four dimensions of value have been commonly conceptualised and identified in the commercial marketing literature; functional, emotional, social, and altruistic value (Holbrook, 1994; Sheth, Newman & Gross, 1991; Sweeney & Soutar, 2001). It is not known if these value dimensions also exist in social marketing. In addition, sources of value said to influence value dimensions have been conceptualised in the literature. Sources of value such as information, interaction, environment, service, customer co-creation, and social mandate have been conceptually identified both in the commercial and social marketing literature (Russell-Bennet, Previte & Zainuddin, 2009; Smith & Colgate, 2007). However, it is not clear which sources of value contribute to the creation of value for users of wellness services. Thus, this research seeks to explore these relationships. This research was conducted using a wellness service context, specifically breast cancer screening services. The primary target consumer of these services is women aged 50 to 69 years old (inclusive) who have never been diagnosed with breast cancer. It is recommended that women in this target group have a breast screen every 2 years in order to achieve the most effective medical outcomes from screening. A two-study mixed method approach was utilised. Study 1 was a qualitative exploratory study that analysed individual-depth interviews with 25 information-rich respondents. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using NVivo 8 software. The qualitative results provided evidence of the existence of the four value dimensions in social marketing. The results also allowed for the development of a typology of experiential value by synthesising current understanding of the value dimensions, with the activity aspects of experiential value identified by Holbrook (1994) and Mathwick, Malhotra and Rigdon (2001). The qualitative results also provided evidence for the existence of sources of value in social marketing, namely information, interaction, environment and consumer participation. In particular, a categorisation of sources of value was developed as a result of the findings from Study 1, which identify organisational, consumer, and third party sources of value. A proposed model of value co-creation and a set of hypotheses were developed based on the results of Study 1 for further testing in Study 2. Study 2 was a large-scale quantitative confirmatory study that sought to test the proposed model of value co-creation and the hypotheses developed. An online-survey was administered Australia-wide to women in the target audience. A response rate of 20.1% was achieved, resulting in a final sample of 797 useable responses after removing ineligible respondents. Reliability and validity analyses were conducted on the data, followed by Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) in PASW18, followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) in AMOS18. Following the preliminary analyses, the data was subject to Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) in AMOS18 to test the path relationships hypothesised in the proposed model of value creation. The SEM output revealed that all hypotheses were supported, with the exception of one relationship which was non-significant. In addition, post hoc tests revealed seven further significant non-hypothesised relationships in the model. The quantitative results show that organisational sources of value as well as consumer participation sources of value influence both functional and emotional dimensions of value. The experience of both functional and emotional value in wellness services leads to satisfaction with the experience, followed by behavioural intentions to perform the behaviour and use the service again. One of the significant non-hypothesised relationships revealed that emotional value leads to functional value in wellness services, providing further empirical evidence that emotional value features more prominently than functional value for users of wellness services. This research offers several contributions to theory and practice. Theoretically, this research addresses a gap in the literature by using social marketing theory to provide an alternative method of understanding individual behaviour in a domain that has been predominantly investigated in public health. This research also clarifies the concept of value and offers empirical evidence to show that value is a multi-dimensional construct with separate and distinct dimensions. Empirical evidence for a typology of experiential value, as well as a categorisation of sources of value is also provided. In its practical contributions, this research identifies a framework that is the value creation process and offers health services organisations a diagnostic tool to identify aspects of the service process that facilitate the value creation process.

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Like other highly developed countries, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) are major health problems in Saudi Arabia. The aetiology of cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden within the Saudi population is similar to Western countries with atherosclerosis, hypertension, ischemic heart disease and diabetes highly prevalent with the main risk factors being smoking, obesity and inactivity. There are differences between Saudi men and women in epidemiology, risk factors and health service provision for CHD. These sex and gender based factors are important in considering the health and well-being of Saudi women. Currently, there is limited focus on the cardiovascular health of Saudi women. The aim of this paper is to examine culturally specific issues for Saudi women and the implications for secondary prevention.

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This study seeks to answer the question of “why is policy innovation in Indonesia, in particular reformed state asset management laws and regulations, stagnant?” through an empirical and qualitative approach, identifying and exploring potential impeding influences to the full and equal implementation of said laws and regulations. The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management has emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide (Conway, 2006; Dow, Gillies, Nichols, & Polen, 2006; Kaganova, McKellar, & Peterson, 2006; McKellar, 2006b) for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Two main reasons propelled said policy innovation: a) world-wide common challenges in state asset management practices - such as incomplete information system, accountability, and governance adherence/conceptualisation (Kaganova, McKellar and Peterson 2006); and b) unfavourable state assets audit results in all regional governments across Indonesia. The latter reasoning is emphasised, as the Indonesian government admits to past neglect in ensuring efficiency and best practice in its state asset management practices. Prior to reform there was euphoria of building and developing state assets and public infrastructure to support government programs of the day. Although this euphoria resulted in high growth within Indonesia, there seems to be little attention paid to how state assets bought/built is managed. Up until 2003-2004 state asset management is considered to be minimal; inventory of assets is done manually, there is incomplete public sector accounting standards, and incomplete financial reporting standards (Hadiyanto 2009). During that time transparency, accountability, and maintenance state assets was not the main focus, be it by the government or the society itself (Hadiyanto 2009). Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management (Hadiyanto, 2009c). Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management (Hadiyanto, 2009a). The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, with a triangulated data collection method of document analysis (all relevant state asset management laws, regulations, policies, technical guidelines, and external audit reports), semi-structured interviews, and on-site observation. Empirical data of this study involved a sample of four Indonesian regional governments and 70 interviews, performed during January-July 2010. The analytical approach of this study is that of thematic analysis, in an effort to identify common influences and/or challenges to policy innovation within Indonesia. Based on the empirical data of this study specific impeding influences to state asset management reform is explored, answering the question why innovative policy implementation is stagnant. An in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform, and the attached interviewee’s opinions for each factor, suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in; as a means to explain innovative policy stagnancy. This study offers insights to Indonesian policy makers interested in ensuring the conceptualisation and full implementation of innovative policies, particularly, although not limited to, within the context of state asset management practices.

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Efficient state asset management is crucial for government departments that rely on the operations of their state assets in order to fulfil their public functions, which include public service provision and others. These assets may be expensive, extensive and or, complex, and can have a major impact on the ability of governments to perform its function over extended periods. Various governments around the world have increasingly recognised the importance of an efficient state asset management laws, policies, and practices; exemplified by the surge in state asset management reform. This phenomenon is evident in Indonesia, in particular through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006, who was appointed as the ultimate state asset manager (of Republic of Indonesia) and the proprietor of state asset management reform. The Directorate General of State Assets too has pledged its adherence to good governance principles within its state asset management laws and policies reform. However the degree that good governance principles are conceptualised is unknown, resulting in questions of how and to what extent is good governance principles evident within Indonesia's reformed state asset management laws and policies. This study seeks to understand the level of which good governance principles are conceptualised and understood within reformed state asset management policies in Indonesia (as a case study), and identify the variables that play a role in the implementation of said reform. Although good governance improvements has been a central tenet in Indonesian government agenda, and state asset management reform has propelled in priority due to found neglect and unfavourable audit results; there is ambiguity in regards to the extent that good governance is conceptualised within the reform, how and whether this relationship is understood by state asset managers (i.e government officials), and what (and how) other variables play a supporting and/or impeding role in the reform. Using empirical data involving a sample of four Indonesian regional governments and 70 interviews; discrepancy in which good governance principles are conceptualised, the level it is conceptualised, at which stage of state asset management practice it is conceptualised, and the level it is understood by state asset managers (i.e government officials) was found. Human resource capacity and capability, the notion of 'needing more time', low legality, infancy of reform, and dysfunctional sense of stewardship are identified as specific impeding variables to state asset management reform; whilst decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, political history, and culture play a consistent undercurrent key role in good governance related reforms within Indonesia. This study offers insights to Indonesian policy makers interested in ensuring the conceptualisation and full implementation of good governance in all areas of governing, particularly within state asset management practices. Most importantly, this study identifies an asymmetry in good governance understanding, perspective, and assumptions between policy maker (i.e high level government officials) and policy implementers (i.e low level government officials); to be taken into account for future policy evolvements and/or writing. As such, this study suggests the need for a modified perspective and approach to good governance conceptualisation and implementation strategies, one that acknowledges and incorporates a nation's unique characteristics and no longer denies the double-edged sword of simplified assumptions of governance.

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This paper will compare and evaluate the effectiveness of commercial media lobbying and advocacy against public service media in two countries, the United Kingdom and Australia. The paper will focus empirically on the commercial media coverage of public service media issues in these countries (relating to the BBC and ABC respectively) over the period since the election of the Conservative-led Coalition in Britain in June 2010, and the election of the Gillard government in Australia in August 2010. Reference will be made to preceding periods as relevant to an understanding of the current environment. In both countries the main commercial media rival to public service media is News Corp and its associated organisations – News Ltd and Sky News in Australia, and News International and BSkyB in the UK. The paper will examine with analysis of print and online news and commentary content how News Corp outlets have reported and commented on the activities and plans of public service media as the latter have developed and extended their presence on digital TV and online platforms. It will also consider the responses of the ABC and BBC to these interventions. It will consider, thirdly, the responses of Australian and British governments to these debates, and the policy outcomes. This section of the paper will seek to evaluate the trajectory of the policy-public-private dynamic in recent years, and to draw conclusions as to the future direction of policy. Particular attention will be devoted to recent key moments in this unfolding dialogue. In Britain, debates around the efforts of News Corp to take over 100% of BSkyB, both before and after the breaking of the phone-hacking scandal in July 2011; in Australia, the debate around the National Broadband Network and the competitive tender process for ABC World, that country’s public service transnational broadcaster; and other key moments where rivalry between News Corp companies and public service media became mainstream news stories provoking wider public debate. The paper will conclude with recommendations as to how public service media organisations might engage constructively with commercial organisations in the future, including News Corp, and taking into account emerging technological and financial challenges to traditional rationales for public service provision.

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The emergence of global computer networks and the ubiquitous availability of advanced information and communication technology (ICT) since the mid Nineties has given rise to the hope that the traditional disadvantages faced by regional economies and regional communities could be elevated easily and swiftly. Yet, the experience of both community informatics and community development researchers and practitioners tells a different tale. Although the potential of ICT is in fact realised in some situations and locations and does provide means to ensure sustainability in some regional communities, elsewhere it has not been taken up or has not been able to elicit change for the promised better. Too many communities are still faced by a centralised structure in the context of commerce, service provision or governance and by various degrees of digital divides between connected and disconnected, between media literate and illiterate, between young and old, and between urban and rural. Many attempts to close or bridge the digital divide have been reported with various degrees of success (cf. Menou, 2001; Servon, 2002). Most of these accounts echo a common voice in that they report similar principles of action, and they reflect – in most cases unconsciously – practices of sociocultural animation. This article seeks to shed light onto the concept of sociocultural animation which is already commonplace in various forms in the arts, in education and professional development, youth work, sports, town planning, careers services, entrepreneurship and tourism. It starts by exploring the origins of sociocultural animation and draws parallels to the current state of research and practice. It unpacks the foundation of sociocultural animation and briefly describes underlying principles and how they can be applied in the context of community informatics and developing regional communities with ICT. Finally, further areas of investigation are being proposed.

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GO423 was initiated in 2012 as part of a community effort to ensure the vitality of the Queensland Games Sector. In common with other industrialised nations, the game industry in Australia is a reasonably significant contributor to Gross National Product (GNP). Games are played in 92% of Australian homes and the average adult player has been playing them for at least twelve years with 26% playing for more than thirty years (Brand, 2011). Like the games and interactive entertainment industries in other countries, the Australian industry has its roots in the small team model of the 1980s. So, for example, Beam Software, which was established in Melbourne in 1980, was started by two people and Krome Studios was started in 1999 by three. Both these companies grew to employing over 100 people in their heydays (considered large by Antipodean standards), not by producing their own intellectual property (IP) but by content generation for off shore parent companies. Thus our bigger companies grew on a model of service provision and tended not to generate their own IP (Darchen, 2012). There are some no-table exceptions where IP has originated locally and been ac-quired by international companies but in the case of some of the works of which we are most proud, the Australian company took on the role of “Night Elf” – a convenience due to affordances of the time zone which allowed our companies to work while the parent companies slept in a different time zone. In the post GFC climate, the strong Australian dollar and the vulnerability of such service provision means that job security is virtually non-existent with employees invariably being on short-term contracts. These issues are exacerbated by the decline of middle-ground games (those which fall between the triple-A titles and the smaller games often produced for a casual audience). The response to this state of affairs has been the change in the Australian games industry to new recognition of its identity as a wider cultural sector and the rise (or return) of an increasing number of small independent game development companies. ’In-dies’ consist of small teams, often making games for mobile and casual platforms, that depend on producing at least one if not two games a year and who often explore more radical definitions of games as designed cultural objects. The need for innovation and creativity in the Australian context is seen as a vital aspect of the current changing scene where we see the emphasis on the large studio production model give way to an emerging cultural sector model where small independent teams are engaged in shorter design and production schedules driven by digital distribution. In terms of Quality of Life (QoL) this new digital distribution brings with it the danger of 'digital isolation' - a studio can work from home and deliver from home. Community events thus become increasingly important. The GO423 Symposium is a response to these perceived needs and the event is based on the understanding that our new small creative teams depend on the local community of practice in no small way. GO423 thus offers local industry participants the opportunity to talk to each other about their work, to talk to potential new members about their work and to show off their work in a small intimate situation, encouraging both feedback and support.

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Objectives In Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Queensland, to (a) determine the disease burden of common chronic lung diseases and (b) identify areas of need with respect to lung health services. Methods Literature reviews and analyses of hospitalisation and mortality data were used to describe disease epidemiology and available programs and services. Key stakeholder interviews and an online survey of health professionals were used to evaluate lung health services across the state and to identify services, needs and gaps. Results Morbidity and mortality from respiratory diseases in the Indigenous population is substantially higher than the non-Indigenous population across all age groups and regions. There are inadequate clinical services and resources to address disease prevention, detection, intervention and management in an evidence-based and culturally acceptable fashion. There is a lack of culturally appropriate educational resources and management programs, insufficient access to appropriately engaged Indigenous health professionals, a lack of multi-disciplinary specialist outreach teams, fragmented information systems and inadequate coordination of care. Conclusions Major initiatives are required at all levels of the healthcare system to adequately address service provision for Indigenous Queenslanders with lung diseases, including high quality research to investigate the causes for poor lung health, which are likely to be multifactorial.

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The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management have emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management. Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management. The purpose of this study is to explore and analyze specific contributing influences to state asset management practices, answering the question why innovative state asset management policy implementation is stagnant. The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, utilizing empirical data sample of four Indonesian regional governments. Through a thematic analytical approach this study provides an in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform. Such analysis suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in, as a means to ex-plain stagnant implementation of innovative state asset management practice. Thus this study offers deeper insights of the intricate web that influences state as-set management innovative policies to state asset management policy makers; to be taken into consideration in future policy writing.

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Service Science, Management, and Engineering (SSME) is a research area with significant relevance to research and practice. Networked systems of web services are a field of service science that enjoys growing interest from researchers. The complex and dynamic environment of these service ecosystems poses new requirements on quality management that are insufficiently addressed by current approaches that focus mainly on the technical aspects of quality. This focus is a severe limitation for the development of service networks because it neglects perceived service quality from the viewpoint of service consumers. In this paper we propose a reference model for quality management in service ecosystems. This reference model is linked in particular to innovation and new service development. Towards the end we propose premises for the implementation and outline a future research agenda.

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In this chapter we will make the transition towards the design of business models and the related critical issues. We develop a model that helps us understand the causalities that play a role in understanding the viability and feasibility of the business models, i.e. long-term profitability and market adoption. We argue that designing viable business models requires balancing the requirements and interests of the actors involved, within and between the various business model domains. Requirements in the service domain guide the design choices in the technology domain, which in turn affect network formation and the financial arrangements. It is important to understand the Critical Design Issues (CDIs) involved in business models and their interdependencies. In this chapter, we present the Critical Design Issues involved in designing mobile service business models, and demonstrate how they are linked to the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) with regard to business model viability. This results in a causal model for understanding business model viability, as well as providing grounding for the business model design approach outlined in Chapter 5.

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Aims To provide the best available evidence to determine the impact of nurse practitioner services on cost, quality of care, satisfaction and waiting times in the emergency department for adult patients. Background The delivery of quality care in the emergency department is one of the most important service indicators in health delivery. Increasing service pressures in the emergency department have resulted in the adoption of service innovation models: the most common and rapidly expanding of these is emergency nurse practitioner services. The rapid uptake of emergency nurse practitioner service in Australia has outpaced the capacity to evaluate this service model in terms of outcomes related to safety and quality of patient care. Previous research is now outdated and not commensurate with the changing domain of delivering emergency care with nurse practitioner services. Data A comprehensive search of four electronic databases from 2006-­‐2013 was conducted to identify research evaluating nurse practitioner service impact in the emergency department. English language articles were sought using MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane and included two previous systematic reviews completed five and seven years ago. Methods A three step approach was used. Following a comprehensive search, two reviewers assessed identified studies against the inclusion criteria. From the original 1013 studies, 14 papers were retained for critical appraisal on methodological quality by two independent reviewers and data extracted using standardised tools. Results Narrative synthesis was conducted to summarise and report the findings as insufficient data was available for meta-­‐analysis of results. This systematic review has shown that emergency nurse practitioner service has a positive impact on quality of care, patient satisfaction and waiting times. There was insufficient evidence to draw conclusions regarding impact on costs. Conclusion Synthesis of the available research attempts to provide an evidence base for emergency nurse practitioner service to guide healthcare leaders, policy makers and clinicians in reforming emergency department service provision. The findings suggest that further quality research is required for comparative measures of clinical and service effectiveness of emergency nurse practitioner service. In the context of increased health service demand and the need to provide timely and effective care to patients, such measures will assist in delivering quality patient care.

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The mining industry faces concurrent pressures of reducing water use, energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming years. However, the interactions between water and energy use, as well as GHG e missions have largely been neglected in modelling studies to date. In addition, investigations tend to focus on the unit operation scale, with little consideration of whole-of-site or regional scale effects. This paper presents an application of a hierarchical systems model (HSM) developed to represent water, energy and GHG emissions fluxes at scales ranging from the unit operation, to the site level, to the regional level. The model allows for the linkages between water use, energy use and GHG emissions to be examined in a fl exible and intuitive way, so that mine sites can predict energy and emissions impacts of water use reduction schemes and vice versa. This paper examines whether this approach can also be applied to the regional scale with multiple mine sites. The model is used to conduct a case study of several coal mines in the Bowen Basin, Australia, to compare the utility of centralised and decentralised mine water treatment schemes. The case study takes into account geographical factors (such as water pumping distances and elevations), economic factors (such as capital and operating cost curves for desalination treatment plants) and regional factors (such as regionally varying climates and associated variance in mine water volumes and quality). The case study results indicate that treatment of saline mine water incurs a trade-off between water and energy use in all cases. However, significant cost differences between centralised and decentralised schemes can be observed in a simple economic analysis. Further research will examine the possibility for deriving model up-scaling algorithms to reduce computational requirements.

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Poor dietary choices are associated with overweight and obesity and the development of chronic conditions. Over 12 million (~60%) Australians are currently overweight or obese. Accredited Practicing Dietitians (APDs) are the experts in nutrition and diet therapy, equipped to provide services and counselling to assist individuals in making dietary modifications to prevent or manage diet-related conditions. However, no existing research has investigated the proportion or characteristics of the Australian population that may be accessing APDs. Data from 25,906 participants in the 2004/05 National Health Survey (NHS) were analysed using logistic regression to identify the sociodemographic and health characteristics of individuals accessing an APD or Nutritionist. Only 0.4% (n = 105) of the sample reported accessing a Dietitian or Nutritionist, this was half the amount accessing a Naturopath. Diabetes Mellitus, cardiovascular disease and obesity were all significantly associated with having seen a Dietitian, and over 90% of those accessing services had a long-term condition. Of the total sample only 10% of those with a diet-related condition had seen an APD or Nutritionist. Household income and education were not associated with accessing an APD. Exploration around the barriers to referral and accessing services may be warranted to assist in enhancing the profile of APDs among the population and other healthcare professionals. The current number of approximately 5000 registered APDs is unlikely to be able to service the proportion of the population who require dietary intervention; further avenues for prevention, rather than acute treatment, and novel strategies for service provision also need to be explored.

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This paper presents an efficient algorithm for optimizing the operation of battery storage in a low voltage distribution network with a high penetration of PV generation. A predictive control solution is presented that uses wavelet neural networks to predict the load and PV generation at hourly intervals for twelve hours into the future. The load and generation forecast, and the previous twelve hours of load and generation history, is used to assemble load profile. A diurnal charging profile can be compactly represented by a vector of Fourier coefficients allowing a direct search optimization algorithm to be applied. The optimal profile is updated hourly allowing the state of charge profile to respond to changing forecasts in load.